Don’t throw away your draft prep. All those spreadsheets full of projections and numbers and performance metrics – those aren’t trash! Those are essential research materials that can help to predict the future outcomes of Major League Baseball players, and they’re still useful! So you drafted Yainer Diaz with the idea that he’d be a top-tier offensive catcher and that you wouldn’t have to work the waiver wire for that position all year. Even if everything else goes sideways, at least you’ve got your catcher spot locked up. Well, he started the year 2-for-33 with no home runs. That doesn’t mean you cast aside all you’ve done this offseason, projecting him for 20+ home runs and a near .280 batting average. You can’t just abandon all you’ve worked for because of a bad run to begin the season – which, by the way, is barely 10% of the way through.
Instead, you should be pouncing on the guys that other managers have cast off back to the wire after slow starts, in an attempt to capture the positive regression that is sure to come their way based on the thorough research and projections that you gathered throughout the course of draft season! Keep an eye on your waiver transactions, with a focus on the players that are getting dropped. Did the manager who drafted Willson Contreras get sick of watching him use his bats for snack time instead of hitting the ball? Has Dylan Crews‘ manager thrown in the towel on the young rookie after just 40 plate appearances? Now’s your chance to take advantage! Better times are ahead for a lot of these slumping hitters and ailing pitchers. Make sure you use all the outstanding resources Pitcher List has to offer to gain the biggest edge on your opponents that you can – including this column!
Throughout the season, this column is designed to help guide those in Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) leagues make the best choices in who to target on the waiver wire. Specifically, we’re focusing on players who are between 20-25% rostered in most 12-team leagues and/or 25-50% rostered in 15-teamers. Every league is different, so we won’t be labeling player bids with any sort of recommended dollar amount but instead will use a four-tier investment rating system, ranging from a minimal spend to a potential difference-maker (or LEAGUE-WINNER, if you will).
Let’s dig in!
Investment Rating System
A total of 10 teams will start the week with seven games on the schedule as the Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays and Washington Nationals each have a full slate of games. The Nationals may be the most appealing from a hitting standpoint as they travel to Coors Field for a weekend series with the Rockies while
SEVEN GAMES: DET, KCR, NYM, NYY, PHI, PIT, SFG, STL, TBR, WAS
Batters
Outfielders
Zac Veen ($$$): Called up early last week, Veen has been slow out of the gate with two hits and his first 13 at bats. However, with 11 home runs and 21 stolen bases in 65 minor league games last year, Veen shows promise as a dual speed-power threat in the Colorado outfield. Facing right-handed starters in five of six games this coming week, Veen has a chance to show off the talent that his prospect pedigree promises.
Leody Taveras ($$): Taveras has played nearly every day in center field for the Texas Rangers, posting a respectable line from the plate with a .250 average. The contact metrics are bad, but five stolen bases in 12 games so far is enough to warrant rostering Taveras for speed stats in hopes that he gets on base in front of the bats that sit at the top of the Rangers’ lineup.
Kameron Misner ($$): Though we highlighted teammate Jake Mangum last week, it’s been Misner that has looked to be a more sustainable MLB bat in the Rays outfield. Misner has hit the ball hard in a lot of his at-bats and it’s paid off in a .357 batting average through 11 games. The Rays face four left-handed starters this week, so it may not be a great time to start Misner, but it makes sense to grab him and stash him on your bench to stream in a more right-handed heavy schedule for Tampa Bay.
Bryan De La Cruz ($$): De La Cruz has been thrust into the Braves’ starting outfield and has been a serviceable bat for the team, going 8-for-20 at the plate through his last five games entering the weekend. A popular breakout pick in fantasy circles last season, De La Cruz hasn’t shown much, but will have ample opportunity in Atlanta in the absence of Acuna and Profar.
Oscar González ($): Remember this throwback from 2022? Oscar González was outstanding with the Cleveland guardians in his rookie season, but has been quiet since. Now in the San Diego Padres outfield, Gonzalez has a chance to shine once again, especially if Fernando Tatis Jr. misses time with a shoulder injury. Gonzalez batted .296 with 11 home runs through 91 games in 2022, and is looking to recapture that magic three years later. If he gets the playing time, he could show another flash of potential and the ceiling is high enough that the risk is worth a dollar bid.
Infielders
Kyren Paris (2B – $$$$): Fantasy managers Louvre Kyren Paris. Eiffel for him the moment I set eyes on him. Oui can’t get enough. Way better than Ty France. One too many puns? Well, c’est la vie. If you missed out on Paris in last week’s FAAB run, he’s going to end up costing a significant bit more after this past week’s performance. He was identified as a suggestion in this column last week – albeit relatively tepidly – but I’m still taking the partial credit. Now he’s firmly in the discussion for this year’s biggest breakout with five home runs and four stolen bases through just over two weeks of baseball. It appears Mike Trout finally has a running mate in his post-Ohtani stint with the Angels.
Wilmer Flores (1B – $$$): Flores is getting more playing time than we expected in the preseason, serving as the San Francisco Giants‘ primary designated hitter. With four lefty starters lined up to face the Giants this week, Flores is in position to feast on some southpaws. Flores has batted .279 so far this season with a .338 xAVG, meaning he could continue to ascend and improve. With five home runs and 14 RBI in just 12 games, Flores should be on a roster in all 15-team leagues.
Nick Kurtz (1B – $$$) – Depending on league format and platform, Kurtz may not yet appear in the player pool. However, he should absolutely be on the minds of fantasy managers as the April 13 Prospect Performance Incentive pick deadline approaches and passes (after April 13, first-year players can potentially retain rookie eligibility if they don’t exceed a certain number of plate appearances or innings pitched). Kurtz has been mashing in the minors both this season and last, and could force the Athletics’ hand to get him into their lineup. Tyler Soderstrom and Brent Rooker both block his path, but Kurtz could potentially be a better hitter than both of them. And that’s exciting stuff for fantasy managers. If he’s available and if you have roster space, grab him now before his price skyrockets when he’s called up.
Amed Rosario (2B – $$): Rosario has stepped into a larger role than most thought entering the season, forcing his way into the Washington Nationals lineup as a short-side platoon bat against left-handed pitching. The Nats face three left-handed starters and will play three games in Coors Field next week, making it a good time to scoop up Rosario.
Curtis Mead (2B – $$): Mead has had a tough start to the season, but he’ll get ample opportunity this week as Tampa Bay will face off against left-handed starters in four of their seven scheduled games. Mead batted .364 against left-handed pitching last season with a 112.4 max exit velocity. Fantasy managers that scoop him will look for Mead to repeat that success in a small sample this week, especially with all seven games to be played within the hitter-friendly confines of Steinbrenner Field.
Catchers/UT
Sean Murphy ($$$$): He’s not 100% rostered in 15-team leagues and he should be. He’s moved into the primary starting role in Atlanta, reclaiming his spot in the order ahead of Drake Baldwin.
Matt Mervis (UT – $$$): Currently listed as UT only, Mervis should be earning first base eligibility in the very near future. The Marlins’ infielder has shown off a powerful left-handed bat, serving up three home runs and seven RBI in his previous six games played entering the weekend. The Marlins’ lineup has performed better than some pundits thought they would through two weeks, and Mervis has benefitted from the additional RBI opportunities. Only 15-20% rostered in 15-team leagues, he’s a worthy streaming corner infielder and could stick in your lineup if he can remove some of the swing-and-miss from his game and lower that egregious 40.6% strikeout rate.
Pedro Pagés ($$): Playing time in St. Louis should be abundant after the injury to Iván Herrera, and although I prefer backup Yohel Pozo’s bat, Pages will likely dominate the catching duties behind the plate for the Cardinals.
Pitchers
Starting Pitchers
Chase Dollander ($$$): In all likelihood, Dollander is the most talented pitcher available on the waiver wire in most leagues. But he’s a member of the Colorado Rockies. That’s an automatic red flag. His first career start came in Coors Field though, and he didn’t look awful. Dollander allowed four runs on seven hits against the Athletics, but surrendered just one walk and rung up six strikeouts. Not bad for a debut in the most hitter-friendly park in the league. He’ll face the Washington Nationals in Coors on Friday night, a start that might intrigue some managers into rostering him. For me personally, he’s more of a stash arm best saved for weeks where he starts on the road.
Mitchell Parker ($$$): Parker has the perfect spot in the Nationals rotation this week. His lone start comes in Pittsburgh, matching up with the Pirates while he completely misses pitching in Coors Field over the weekend, setting himself to be a two-start pitcher the following week. Parker’s posted back-to-back quality starts against good lineups (PHI, ARZ) to open the season and looks poised to become one of those streaming arms that sticks on your roster. Jump aboard while you still can.
Cade Povich ($$): Povich has certainly been hittable so far, but the young Baltimore Orioles lefty is faced with a favorable matchup against a middling Cleveland Guardians offense next week. He’s done a great job with his control, limiting walks so far and increased his ground ball rate nearly 10% from last season. It would be nice to see Povich miss some more bats, but for now we’ll hope that his chances to get a win and limit damage are enough to make him restorable.
Edward Cabrera ($): Cabrera looked good enough in his debut, and though we’d love for him to be more efficient and get through more innings, he’s a fine option for a start at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
David Festa ($$): Festa was relatively efficient in his season debut but was pulled after just 64 pitches in the fourth inning. He finished with a final line of 4.2 IP, with one unearned run allowed on three hits and a walk while ringing up four strikeouts. The start was fine, but I wish the Twins would lengthen his leash. Perhaps that will come as he gains some trust. He’s worth a pickup but we’ll need him to go deeper in games before we start relying on him on a weekly basis.
Andrew Heaney ($$): Heaney was exceptional last week against the Yankees and will pitch on Saturday evening (after article submission) against the Cincinnati Reds. He’s scheduled for a start against the Nationals this week and could be really good again. Or he could be a hot mess express. That’s the thing with Heaney—you really never know what you’re going to get. If his secondaries are on point, he’s nearly untouchable. But if he’s not locating, he has the potential to walk the yard and destroy your WHIP. Best of luck figuring out which Heaney we’ll get next week.
Relief Pitchers
José Alvarado ($$$): Alvarado earned his first save of the season earlier this week, but he gave managers the full José Alvarado Experience. He allowed three singles, a walk, an earned run and rung up three strikeouts to close out the game for the Phillies. Though the Phillies signed Jordan Romano this offseason – who has demonstrated a concerning drop in velocity so far – they’ve shown the most trust in Alvarado, who has served as their high-leverage reliever so far. His role should translate into a lot of saves this season as the Phillies will likely be competing for an NL East title. He’s the reliever that I’m most interested in this week and I think he could easily finish the season with 20-25 saves.
Luke Weaver ($$): I’m not saying Devin Williams is broken but it appears that the ‘Airbender’ ain’t air bending. Coming off of a back injury, in a new city, on a new team, Williams might be in the middle of a perfect storm that results in his performance slipping significantly this season. If he suffers another couple of blown saves or goes back on the injured list, Weaver should be next in line for saves for the Pinstripes. Even if he doesn’t grab any saves for managers, his ratios and strikeouts will be enough of a chip in to justify rostering the reliever.
Seranthony Domínguez OR Yennier Cano ($): The Baltimore Orioles haven’t played well enough to earn any save situations this season. As of Friday evening, nobody on the Baltimore roster has registered a save. Of course Félix Bautista is the primary closer, but manager Brandon Hyde declared before the season that the Orioles will have a pitch count on Bautista all season long, taking it slow on The Mountain as he eases back into the ninth-inning role. That cautiousness should open up opportunities for one of (or both of) Cano or Dominguez. The two relievers have both been excellent in small samples so far this season and could prove valuable if the O’s ever decide to start winning games.
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