I’m writing this one a little early so that we can celebrate the holidays this weekend. The first real benchmark of the season – at least for hitters – is when they reach about 75-80 plate appearances. It’s an arbitrary number but it feels about the right sample size to make some judgments on ball players, what they’re doing and how they can or can’t sustain their performances. We’ve just about reached that threshold this weekend as most everyday players have taken part in nearly 20 games, reaching between 75-80 plate appearances. For most of the guys that we expect to be in the lineup every day, that makes up about 1/8 (12.5%) of their plate appearances this season. We should be able to make some judgments based on those numbers.
Take for example Eugenio Suárez. The Arizona Diamondbacks‘ third baseman mashed four home runs and seven RBI in the first four games of the season. In April, Suarez has played in 15 games, batting 6-for-49 (.122) with just one home run and four RBI. Suarez isn’t a .122 hitter, but judging his body of work through 75 plate appearances is likely a whole lot more accurate than what we looked like through just 20, 30 or 40 plate appearances. He’s slumping, sure. But he was never going to be a top-three third baseman this season, regardless of how good his second half was last season. He could absolutely pop off for another series of four home runs in three games, but that’s the ceiling, not the expectation. My point is this: be intuitive when evaluating players and don’t just snag the hot hand. It could leave you burnt more often than not.
Throughout the season, this column is designed to help guide those in Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) leagues make the best choices in who to target on the waiver wire. Specifically, we’re focusing on players who are between 20-25% rostered in most 12-team leagues and/or 25-50% rostered in 15-teamers. Every league is different, so we won’t be labeling player bids with any sort of recommended dollar amount but instead will use a four-tier investment rating system, ranging from a minimal spend to a potential difference-maker (or LEAGUE-WINNER, if you will).
Let’s dig in!
Investment Rating System
SCHEDULE NOTES
SEVEN GAMES: BOS, CHW, MIL, SFG
Batters
Outfielders
Chandler Simpson ($$$$): What if Billy Hamilton could actually hit? Here’s the guy to answer that pondering. Simpson was called up before Friday night’s games, meaning he should be available in this week’s waiver run in nearly every format. The speedy outfielder stole 104 bases in 110 games across several minor league levels last season and has eight swipes in 17 games at AAA this season. The hit tool is legit, and the speed is unheard of. He could steal 50 bags without breaking a sweat the rest of the way. Be prepared to pay up, though, the hype is permeating throughout the industry.
Kameron Misner ($$$): For the second time this season, Misner is about to be overshadowed by a teammate – and not only by a teammate, but by a teammate at the same position. Misner and Jake Mangum were called up in the same week. And though by many accounts, Misner is the better player, Mangum was the one who drew the most attention with a massive first week of his MLB career. Now with Simpson being called up, Misner will likely be left behind by the hype train once again. Meanwhile, Misner is hitting .400 with three home runs and 10 RBI in just 16 games. He’s got solid power and a little bit of speed. He reminds me of another teammate, Josh Lowe, in a lot of ways. And the price is much more affordable on THIS Tampa Bay Rays outfielder.
Leody Taveras ($$): If you miss out on the Chandler Simpson sweepstakes, as many will, Taveras might not be a bad consolation prize. Even though he’s managed just a .216 OBP, Taveras has swiped six bags to lead the Texas Rangers so far this season. If he can be a little bit more selective – and, shoot, maybe even draw a walk – Taveras’ OBP should go up closer to his career mark of .291 and give him even more opportunities to go wild on the basepaths.
Austin Hays ($$): Hays has powered his way into the Cincinnati every day lineup, playing in every game since returning from the IL earlier this week. Hays is a respectable fifth outfielder and could be even more than that if the Reds’ lineup continues hitting the way it has the past few days.
Alex Verdugo ($): Called up by Atlanta this past week to try and drum up some production from their corner outfield spots, Verdugo is an interesting name in reality, moreso than fantasy. Although he did hit leadoff in his season debut on Friday night, in front of the big Atlanta bats of Albies, Riley, Ozuna, and Olson. From a lineup context, it doesn’t get much better than that (at least until Acuna returns).
Infielders
Nick Kurtz ($$$$ – 1B): The buzz around the baseball world is that the Athletics are clearing a path for Nick Kurtz to impact their lineup in the immediate future. Brent Rooker has played in the outfield twice so far this week, and even head coach Mark Kotsay has mentioned potentially trying Kurtz at third base. He’s coming. And soon. In 43 professional games across three minor league levels, Kurtz has crushed 11 home runs, including seven this season at AAA in just 16 games. The fourth overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, Kurtz grades out as a plus-power hitter with potential to be a top-10 first baseman at his peak, according to Fangraphs’ scouting report. Whenever he does arrive, he might be the first big spend prospect that we see this season. NOTE: In some formats, Kurtz may not be available in the player pool until after he makes his MLB debut.
Nolan Gorman ($$): It feels like Gorman has been around a long time, like he’s one of the aging veterans within the Cardinals organization, but incredibly, he’s only 24 years old. He’s off to a great start to the 2025 season with a .375 OBP and .526 slugging percentage through his first handful of games. Through 25 plate appearances, he’s shown better swing decisions, reducing his strikeout rate to 20.8%. Granted, it’s a super small sample, but it’s encouraging to see him putting the ball in play instead of swinging through everything.
Oswaldo Cabrera ($$): Cabrera has outplayed teammate Oswald Peraza through the early part of the season, and it appears that DJ LeMahieu is still not quite ready for a return. Batting ninth for the Yankees technically means batting in front of Aaron Judge and the Yankees’ top of the order bats. The lineup context works to his advantage so long as he gets on base, and with a .372 OBP so far, Cabrera is making it work.
Jon Berti ($): I’m making a low-risk wager that Berti outperforms rookie Gage Workman and journeyman Vidal Bruján to earn the lion’s share of the playing time at third base until Matt Shaw is called back up to the big leagues. Berti has just 25 plate appearances entering the weekend and has already swiped six bases. That ranks second in the MLB in stolen bases per plate appearance, behind only professional pinch runner Tyler Tolbert. Given regular at-bats, Berti could swipe three to four bags a week.
Brooks Lee ($): Lee has started in four of five games since being activated from the IL and ought to continue to hold down third base for the Minnesota Twins until Royce Lewis eventually returns. Lee has not been all that impressive from the plate so far, but perhaps consistent at-bats will allow him to get his feet beneath him at the major league level. He did show a .331 batting average in the minors in 2024, so there’s hope. But let’s not get too excited.
Catchers/UT
Matt Mervis (UT – $$$): I will continue to bang the drum for Mervis as long as he continues to hit the ball hard. The Miami Marlins‘ first baseman is one of the MLB leaders in strikeout rate – and not in the good way – but can also absolutely mash the baseball. Over the course of the season, he’s likely going to roll through amazing hot streaks (like this past week) and some frigid cold slumps. He’s a classic ‘Ballpark Frank’ type of guy – get him while he’s hot.
Edgar Quero ($$): Well, he’s not coming up to watch. Quero is making his debut for the Chicago White Sox this weekend as the first (and lesser) of two exciting catching prospects within the organization (we see you, Kyle Teel) and should improve the offensive output from the position on the Southside. An offensive-minded catching prospect, Quero hit 16 home runs across 400 plate appearances at two levels of minor league ball last season. He could end up as a top-15 catcher this season, assuming he sticks in the big leagues. And with Matt Thaiss and Omar Narváez as his main competition, there’s a good chance he does.
Yohel Pozo ($): The bat is for real, and he might end up getting plate appearances at designated hitter if Luken Baker and the other bench options don’t produce. Pozo batted at least .280 in each of the last five season,s and that includes a stint in the MLB (with the Texas Rangers at the tail end of 2021). You could do worse at second catcher.
Pitchers
Starting Pitchers
Matthew Liberatore ($$$): Liberatore may have finally started to figure some things out entering the 2025 season after being hyped as a rising pitching prospect throughout the past couple of seasons. Liberatore has gone six innings deep in each of his first four starts and has worked through some tough lineups, pitching well against the Phillies and Mets. His best asset is his ability to keep the ball within the zone, issuing just one walk so far this season. If he is going to continue to miss bats with his slider and keep hitters off balance with the changeup, he could be a streamer that managers end up hanging on to. If I snag him, I think I might hold him.
Kumar Rocker ($$): Rocker looked as if he may have turned the corner in his last start, allowing just three earned runs on five hits with eight strikeouts to earn his first MLB pitching victory over the Angels last week. As Nick noted in his SP Roundup after Rocker’s last start, instead of relying on a lackluster curveball, he went to a slider that was FILTHY, earning a 47% CSW with 12/45 whiffs. He looks really good against righties, not so great against lefties, and faces an Athletics squad with some top-tier left-handed bats (Soderstrom, Butler) this week. I’m very much looking forward to grabbing Rocker at some point this season, just maybe not this week.
Andrew Heaney ($$): The velocity is down below 90mph on the fastball, but he’s still dealing. Heaney has tossed three-straight outings of at least six innings, including a 7.1 inning shutout against the Nationals, leading the Pirates to a 1-0 win. As much as it feels like smoke and mirrors so far, Heaney gets the Angels next in a matchup that feels very winnable. Now, that being said, the metrics and eye test make it feel like starting Heaney is flirting with disaster, and that you’re only chasing his hot performances. Could be true. But it could be worth it to ride the wave until it crashes.
Hayden Birdsong ($): This would be a speculative add, as Birdsong still sits in the bullpen as the Giants’ long man. When you hear analysts say, “Don’t throw out your draft prep,” this is why. Birdsong is one injury, one poor performance, one bad break away from joining the Giants’ rotation and flashing the talent that he showed all spring that gained him so much hype coming into the season. Birdsong has allowed just two earned runs over 10.0 innings pitched, but his control has been slightly concerning with four walks in that span. However, all the things we loved in the spring are still there and just waiting to become fantasy-relevant. All it would take is a spot in the rotation.
Jose Quintana ($$): Quintana might have gotten a little lucky last time out when he generated only six whiffs on 100 pitches and yet still went 5.2 innings with one earned run on four hits. But he sets up this week with a pair of pitcher-friendly ballparks and two lineups that aren’t that intimidating. Quintana slots in to face the Giants in San Francisco and then figures to take on the Cardinals in Busch Stadium later in the week. The veteran southpaw could help in ratios, as long as he continues to induce soft contact and land his off-speed pitches where they need to be in order to be successful. For a two-start week with a pair of solid matchups, I’m buying.
Relief Pitchers
Alexis Díaz ($$): The Cincinnati Reds‘ bullpen has not been great so far this season, and it’s not like Emilio Pagán is a name that instills a ton of fear in opposing batters (or faith in fantasy managers) in the ninth inning. There’s a pretty good chance that Diaz gets his closer job back sooner rather than later. Over the last two seasons, Diaz has accounted for a total of 65 saves. A track record like that ought to mean something to veteran manager Terry Francona, but time will tell.
Justin Slaten ($$): The Red Sox turned to Slaten on Wednesday night to earn a save, which seemed strange because although Chapman had pitched the previous night, he had only thrown five pitches. Either way, Slaten made short work of the Rays to earn his second save of the season. Other than getting blown up by the Orioles in late March, Slaten has been virtually untouchable. He’s worth a pickup for ratios and strikeouts and might grab a save or two as Boston’s secondary closing option.
Abner Uribe ($): We have seen Trevor Megill labor through some save opportunities this season, and he even suffered an injury scare early last week. It opens the door to some speculation that perhaps the veteran doesn’t keep the ninth inning job all year. Uribe is a prime candidate for the ninth in Milwaukee, mostly due to his 100-mph sinker and 88-mph slider. The stuff is really good, and so far, the control is much better this season. If he can keep the walk rate down (it was 18%) last season, he could get a shot at some point to close games for the Brewers.
Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire | Designed by Aaron Asbury (@aarongifs on Instagram)
