Buy & Sell 4/10 – Identifying Who to Add and Who to Drop

It’s still just two weeks, y’all. Your season is not “done” because the guy you spent a top 100 pick on is looking absolutely worthless, and if you’re the impulsive type, you may do more harm than good in overmanaging your roster. I am also an impulsive type, but I’ve made a career out of getting the best out of it by being aggressive at the back end of my roster but more patient on the front end.  Still, I’m bound to make some calls that will seem laughable in August. A few moves might give you the early in on the next Lawrence Butler, or it might end up burning you — I actually had him last year but cut bait in his massive slump a week before his breakout. Take deep breaths and don’t ask me if you should cut Yordan Alvarez.

BUY

 

10-team

 

Ben Rice (1B, New York Yankees)

Ben knows hitting best, so let’s chow down on opposing pitchers with Ben Rice’s Uncle. The race of late round 1B trying to gain relevance has reminded me of the New York Mets Five Borough Subway Race, and betting on Ben felt like cheering for the Ferry. Sorry not sorry, Staten Islanders.  Rice has risen from a post-500 picks in early drafts to an early 400s pick by the end of draft season and was a target of mine throughout, as he had an elite barrel rate last year even with the terrible finish and expected stats and BABIP that suggested terrible luck. So far, he’s been one of the league’s top first basemen, hitting .323 with a .645 SLG%, while playing every day and drawing tons of walks. Though, that’s also a bit of a problem.

See, he’s been uber-patient, with a 16% O-Swing%, but he’s also letting lots of good pitches go, with a 55% Z-Swing%, down from last year’s 72%. His contact rate is down to 73% mostly due to poor O-Contact% (still too early to worry), but that’s how you end up with a SwStr$ under 10% and a troubling CSW% of 32%. But while I’d like to see him be less passive, I’m really burying the lede that his quality of contact has been otherworldly, with an insane 73% HardHit% 97 mph AVERAGE exit velocity, and a 27% Barrel% (6 total barrels), so Statcast actually thinks he’s underperforming. While his MaxEV of 111 mph might lead you to expect massive regression, he did hit a homer at 114 mph this spring, and I think he can easily be a 30+ homer first baseman in a bit of an Adam Dunn mold, with possible upside for more if he can be less passive. And if he does play even a game at catcher, he’s a real league-winner. You gotta add him ASAP if he’s still around, even if you have to swing a trade to make room for him in your starting lineup. Gotta let Rice cook.

 

Adolis Garcia (OF, Texas Rangers)

It looks like he has a new Ado-lease on life. Nobody should overreact to small samples, and especially not surface stats. But let me overreact to the potential value you can get from the beautiful combination of bad luck and confirmation bias. People are always looking to bury Adolis given his terrible plate discipline, and his season has some backers of the Texas Ranger shaking in their boots, hitting just .184 despite the decent 2 HR and 2 SB. Now, on the one hand, a player with a .156 BABIP isn’t necessarily going to regress to .300, especially when they’re hitting an extreme 62% FB%. But then again, if someone’s going to do that, you want it to be someone who really drives the ball, so that they could end up with a nice barrel rate, say, like, 21%.

For those in more casual leagues, maybe they’ll miss the fact that Garcia actually currently has a 11% K%, which I will say first is not at all sustainable with his contact% being close to his career levels. But he doesn’t have to hit for that kind of contact with a 55% HardHit% to do real damage, and it certainly seems like he’s healthy. So I’d strike while the ironclad hitter is cold and swing a deal assuming slightly less than his preseason value, or even equal value, and you could be in for a return to 30+ HR and a season that could even go toe-to-toe with Teoscar Hernandez. Target him in all leagues that count home runs as a category.

Honorable Mention: Jarren Duran (OF, Boston Red Sox) — I’d have thought it’s too obvious that a second-rounder with a cold start but a career-best 13% Barrel%, 56% HardHit%, and 24% CSW% could be a “buy”, but in the PL Legacy League I was just offered him with Maikel Garcia for Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Hunter Goodman (and I immediately accepted), so shoot your shot (for a reasonable return of course) while you still can.

 

12-team

 

Jacob Wilson (SS, Athletics)

Imagine Luis Arraez at shortstop. Now imagine a younger Luis Arraez who just moved from one of the worst hitter’s park to one of the best, and also hit several spring training homers. You might wonder why Wilson was a post-300 pick, but we know it’s because he’s never done this before, but I think he can. Wilson is currently matching Arraez in his elite contact% and CSW%, and while that might be a surprise given his ho-hum 2024 majors numbers, his contact% in the minors last year was an incredible 93%… with a simply unheard-of 99% Z-Contact%. Well, until this season, where his Z-Contact is currently at 98%, and his Contact% overall is 96%.

While it’s true that the power upside is still limited with the same below-average 85 mph average eV of last year, he has already hit two barrels, and his 30% HardHit% is 12% better than what he did last year. Sure, it’s not good, but given how ridiculously often he makes contact, his 13 overall hard hits are top 100th among hitters, and actually tied with the likes of Trout, Goldschmidt, and even Teoscar Hernandez. So we really should be using the per-PA instead of the per-BBE with him. While I don’t think he’ll be a superstar or anything, I’m starting to believe the rosy ZIPS projection that has him hitting .301 with 14 homers and 2 SB in 525 PA. Hey, isn’t that basically what we were hoping for from Carlos Correa? Given that the whole A’s offense looks more potent, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him batting 1st or 2nd and being worth having in all average leagues (I’d pass for now in 10-team OBP).

 

Jeremy Peña (SS, Houston Astros)

Jeremy spoke in class today, and he said Mind your xBA. If you’re in a league where people are freaking out about a player’s batting average on April 10th, you have a great opportunity to buy even slightly low when Peña is looking more likely to break out than break down. Behind his ugly .158/.250/.308 line is an incredibly different .317 xBA and .516 xSLG, and while I will admit I find little meaning in that given the small sample size, it can be good for pointing you in the right direction. In this case it led me to a fantastic 59% HardHit% and 13% Barrel%, though his 107 MaxEV this year still being down several ticks from previous years means this could regress.

Then again, it seems there may be a chance he’s consciously attempting to “find his pitch” to get to power, as both his swing rates and contact rates are down but he’s hitting the ball not only harder but at a higher launch angle, with a GB% of 36% compared to 49% from last year. While the Astros offense on the whole has been a disaster, it gives him a better chance of maintaining a spot in the heart of the lineup.  I could see him coming closer to a 20/20 season if he can maintain this approach, as trading off contact for power is currently working well for many other hitters including George Springer.

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Aranda (1B, Tampa Bay Rays) — Perhaps I’m doing him dirty by not giving him the full writeup, but he’s making early believers look smart with his elite 20% Barrel%, 60% HardHit% and 97 mph overall eV to go with a career-best 25% CSW% fueled mostly by a much needed boost in aggressiveness in the zone (73% Z-Swing%). The .474 BABIP won’t last, but the breakout seems real (at least against righties).

 

15-team

 

Kyren Paris (2B/3B, Los Angeles Angels)

We all became Francophiles this week because suddenly we long for Paris. Just note that Helen of Troy also longed for Paris and that launched ’ships. Steer clear of Jeff Samardzija (okay that reference is admittedly very inside baseball). Although I’m kicking myself for having added him in a 30-team dynasty league only to cut him for the next hot starter (big oof), I can’t help cheering him on for how much more interesting he’s making the Angels. He’s currently the top riser this week, going from 1% to 25% in ESPN leagues and 41% of Yahoo Leagues, where he has more eligibilities. So far he’s hitting like a man possessed, hitting .429/.538/.942 with 4 homers and 5 SB, which actually makes him one of the top early hitters in the entire fantasy landscape. Wow.

But let’s get a hold of ourselves here and remember it’s still April 10th. Yes, he’s hitting an elite 60% HardHit% and 20% Barrel%, but that also comes with a bad 76% Z-Contact% and an even worse 62% Contact% overall thanks to his 11% O-Contact%. Although he hit a MaxEV of 110 mph last year, he’s only hit 107 mph last year so even though he apparently worked with Aaron Judge’s hitting coach, which certainly can help, I think he’s a lot less likely to be the next superstar or even 20/20 fantasy asset than he is to be a better but also luckier version of Ryan Bliss. Still, with how hot he’s been, and his multiple position eligibility in Yahoo, he’s the kind of guy you need to take now in all leagues, though I think you may regret it if you don’t shop him around and find someone willing to buy the hype. Wait, should I make him a sell then? Well, maybe yeah, you got me.

 

Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, Pittsburgh Pirates)

Could this finally be the year Ke’Breezy doesn’t tease me?  The surface stats seem very ho-hum, with a .238 AVG with 1 HR and 2 SB, but that surface tension is bound to break. Right now there’s a rising tide on all Pirates due to their increased gumption on the base paths, but I’m actually thinking more about the fact that he’s currently lifting the ball more, with a 39% GB% equal to his 39% FB%, unlike last year where he had 53% GB and a 28% GB%. He’s also hitting the ball harder like he did in 2023, and I think with that, he can certainly hit .270 again with double digit speed, and with a full season of heath, could perhaps finally reach that elusive 20 HR plateau.

Honorable Mention: Kameron Misner (OF, Tampa Bay Rays) — He’s in line for more playing time now with both Josh Lowe and DeLuca out, and he’s been hitting the ball hard (57% HardHit%), but more importantly, a passable 76% Contact% with a weirdly elite 97% Z-Contact% to give his power/speed combo more room to play out.

 

Deep Leagues

 

Nick Fortes (C, Miami Marlins)

Flying under the radar is one of Nick’s Fortes. At the time of me writing this, Fortes is currently sitting on the wire of both of my 30-team dynasty leagues, despite being the starting catcher. THIRTY TEAMS!  And an overall own rate of just 2%. Maybe that’s because the high-contact catcher has hit so weakly the past few years, but this year could be different. For one, his current barrel rate of 16% is more than ten times his 1% Barrel from last year, and his two barrels are already, just two weeks in, halfway to his 2024 total. And with that is a 67% HardHit% that’s 3 times his 2024 HardHit% of just 22%. But lest you think he sold out all contact for power, that couldn’t be less true.

Actually the most shocking thing is that he is still making strong contact at 83%, but thanks to his unusually aggressive Z-Swing% he leads all major leaguers in CSW% at a wild 16% CSW%. For reference, most of the leaders in the category are usually just under 20%. This could be small sample shenanigans sure, but you’re starting with a catcher who is playing. That is inherent value, especially in deep leagues, and the rest is gravy. And if he can maintain either this aggressive approach or the power, that might be that deep south sinful sausage gravy.

Honorable Mention:  Carlos Narvaez (C, Boston Red Sox) — With Connor Wong going down, he looks to be on the strong side of a timeshare, combo more room to play out, and has some batting average upside at an AVG-starved position with his unusually good 85% Contact% (94% Z-Contact%) and elite 21% CSW% while also hitting more pulled flyballs.

 

SELL

 

10-team

 

Luis Garcia, Jr. (2B, Nationals)

Right now, for LG, Life Is… Not So Good, Jr. In early April, my preferred strategy is not to panic drop people, but rather try to scoop up the players that other people panic drop. After all, a few weeks of April performance does not a season make, and the thing I care more about is playing time and roles. Unfortunately for those buying in early on Garcia, the playing time will indeed be a platoon after lots of optimism that surely the Nationals wouldn’t be dumb enough to reduce the playing time of arguably their best hitter. Foolish optimism, this is Dave Martinez here. It may seem ridiculous to consider dropping a player who often was taken at an ADP of 120, but a platoon player is a platoon player, and he’s not exactly making a case for getting full PT right now.

I’m not overly worried about his contact rate going from 79% last year to just 69% this year, or his increased chase rate to 41%, or the fact that his GB% is back to his pre-2024 levels of 54%. However, the fact that all of them are happening together, with a lousy CSW% of 33%, doesn’t combine well with the playing time issues. Although I drafted him about 100 picks later, I find that in my 12-teamer, I currently have Garcia awkwardly sitting on my bench behind Brandon Lowe, who has shaken off the platoon bugaboo. Especially if you play in a 10-team OBP format, there really just isn’t much upside to holding him. I’d still probably prefer trying to trade him on the name value if you can get close to full value.

Dishonorable Mention: Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants) – I write him here not as a drop but a sell high, since although his line of .231 with 2 HR and 1 SB seems just dandy, something seems very wrong with his usually excellent quality of contact. He has just a 26% HardHit% with 1 barrel (4%) and a mediocre MaxEV of 107 that is over 7 mph lower than his typical elite MaxEV of 114 mph. Trade him now before they realize the bottom may fall out and you can recoup close to 100% value, and I doubt that will be the case in a few weeks.

 

12-team

 

 Michael Toglia (1B, Colorado Rockies)

He is a very streaky player, we knew this. Still, a 47% K% is like, really really bad. and his league-worst 57% Contact (72% Z-Contact%) makes me very afraid, especially when his Contact% is the same as his GB% (56%). That’s second-worst in the majors, and not just among regulars, and way worse than what Joey Gallo used to put up. I knew the risk going in, but much like the puts I bought on tech stocks on Monday… sorry I need to go get a beer or 12.

The thing with Toglia is that unlike some other high-end first baseman, he was not even expected to be more than a role player until his huge season last year, and given that he ended the season at age 26, that could’ve been his peak version where everything maxed out. If you can hold out for the Colorado homestand, you probably should, since we know what that can do for hitters, especially hitters like him. But given that his 5% barrel% is much more in line with his career rate and that you can’t have Coors batted ball inflation on strikeouts, I think it might not be the worst idea to “panic” sell him to another team who believes in the bounce back if you can get a safer 1B like Aranda, Mountcastle or maybe even Nate Lowe, since it’s pretty clear that his preseason projections that all called for batting averages in the .210-.220 range knew better, and I think the average offsets the power/speed in 12-team AVG leagues.

Dishonorable Mention: Yandy Diaz (1B, Tampa Bay Rays) — Will he get better? Yes! Is the fact that his groundball rate is rising for the fourth consecutive season concerning, currently at an extreme 63%, while having a 28% Soft% indicating that the soon-to-be-34-year-old perhaps should get passed over for hotter cold corner bats at the position? Yeah, probably. You can’t steal first base and even in the best park, you can’t hit a homer on a grounder.

 

15-team

 

Matt Wallner (OF, Minnesota Twins)

Remember when I said Toglia’s terrible 56% contact% was only second-worst in the majors? Guess who takes top billing. Wallner apparently loves deja vu because it seems he wants to repeat his horrific start to 2024 but WAIT! Wallner can’t be that bad, right? He’s actually been a batting average boon, hitting .294 with no homers in 40 PA but playing as the leadoff hitter and having a great 15% Walk rate. Okay. Maybe I should switch Toglia and Wallner’s spots here at least. But hear me out. So far, Wallner actually hasn’t deserved his high walk rate, as his 34% O-Swing% is much more average than elite, and his 24% SwStr% has to be the worst I remember seeing since Keon Broxton.

The thing with Wallner is you can probably still find a trade partner for him, but even his batted ball data falls short of what he did last year, with a merely decent 8% Barrel%, 40% HardHit%, and 112 mph MaxEV (116 mph last year). Sure, maybe he can fix it, but the floor is so low, and you’re better off not having to see him demoted again and waiting hoping for another second-half surge.

Dishonorable Mention: Danny Jansen (C, Tampa Bay Rays) — I think he’s broken. Just a 22% HardHit%, falling under 30% for the 2nd straight year, and while he can’t be as bad as his .042 AVG, his xBA is… .097. If you have him and can still take Fortes for him, don’t hesitate.

 

Deep Leagues

 

Javier Baez (SS/3B, Detroit Tigers)

I’m happy for him that he gets another chance for playing time, but the power has completely vanished, like even compared to last year. His current HardHit% is just 12%. His average eV of 83 mph is Victor Robles-esque, and his MaxEV hasn’t even hit triple digits (rounding up to 99 mph). Even with an improvement in his contact to 78%, his low K rate is not sustainable and he’s looking a lot like a poor man’s Ernie Clement.

Dishonorable Mention: Brett Baty (3B, New York Mets) — He sure got our hopes up in the spring, remember those days? With a .125 AVG and .167 SLG% to go with a 40% K% in 25 PA, and not a single barrel to speak of, it’s time to admit it was just a spring mirage just like that Leprechaun that sold me a plastic pot of pyrite.