Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is IT’S MY BIRTHDAY BIT-COIN ENTHUSIASTS! I may be terrible at investing real money, but I’ve had a great year so far in my 10 fantasy leagues, currently ranking first in 5 of the leagues, including a 14-team home league, a 15-team Draft Champions, a 12-team BestBall Double-Up (so being in 1st doesn’t really matter, sadly), and first in both of my 30-team Dynasty leagues. So I may make typos or occasionally say drop a player that then goes on a heater, but, like, I must be doing something right.
I think my strategy is just ABC – Always Be Churning. I added and dropped Hunter Dobbins 3 separate times before finally long holding him, though I still call him Hunter Drop-ins. I also try to be hyper-aggressive and act on the first sign of fantasy intrigue, which helped me get in early on Luis Urías, Trey Sweeney, Angel Martínez and Tim Tawa, though it admittedly made me overreact to some bad samples and prematurely cut Jake Meyers, among others. You also need to be careful of doing this too much in FAAB leagues since you might end up burning two-thirds of your FAAB by mid-May like a certain someone. I’m not perfect, okay? Hopefully though here you can find some players that still won’t break the bank to acquire, so let’s get on to the list!
BUY
10-team
Jacob Wilson (SS, Athletics)
Another week, another shortstop as the centerfold. Well if you listened to my advice to buy low on Bichette and grab Neto everywhere, you’re probably feeling good, so why not go for the hat trick. Wilson’s recent run has been mind-blowing, hitting .451 with 3 K (and 5 BB) in 51 AB over the past 2 weeks, and hitting .500/.522/.909 with 2 homers, 6 RBI and 5 RBI in 22 AB this week. I think comparing him to Luis Arraez at shortstop did him a disservice.
You gotta add him, full stop. Outside of Aaron Judge, he’s the most likely player this year to hit .400, and mostly because Judge has the headstart. Wilson’s .363 AVG is simply transformational, but more meaningful are the five homers. While his bat speed is quite poor, he’s taking advantage of his home park by volume-ing his way into power, along the lines of Isaac Paredes. He’s currently on pace for 20 homers, and while his barrel/HR rate suggests regression, I think he’s the kind of player with enough freakish bat control to hit it into the right spots to outperform statcast, and Sacramento hasn’t even fully heated up yet. Even barely scraping double-digit power would make him a top 125 player, thanks to his league leading striking rate of 5% K%. And while he’s not aggressive on the bases, his 2 bags there so far mean he’s not a total zero, and has an outside shot at double-digit nabbed bags. It’s crazy to think he’s just 22, and this could just be the beginning of a star career.
Wilyer Abreu (OF, Boston Red Sox)
I thought that whatever illness he got in spring was going to weaken him, but it apparently gave him superpowers. I’ll be right back, I’m going to crawl around dark spaces all in the places the Red Sox spent Spring Training hoping to get bitten by a radioactive spidah. Last year I was skeptical of Abreu’s outperformance of Statcast metrics, but this year it’s finally clear to me that he’s legit. The 25-year-old has full-time at-bats locked up and slugged an impressive .290 with 4 dingers this week to bring his season line up to .281 with 11 HR and 4 SB in just 146 AB.
Although he hasn’t neared his mighty 114 mph MaxEV last year with a merely plus MaxEV of 111 mph, he’s stayed the same or improved in just about every other way, with the same 51% HardHit%, and most importantly, a boost in his barrel rate, at a gargantuan 16% compared to last year’s 11%. His plate discipline improvements are also striking, as he cut his strikeout rate from 28% to just 20%, with a huge boost in BB% up to 13%, from 9% in 2024. He’s earned his spot in the heart of the Red Sox lineup, which is still formidable even despite looking less threatening than before. In a way he reminds me of Lourdes Gurriel, except, like, better than everything. Yep, he’s the Rich Man’s Lourdes, you heard it here first.
Honorable Mention: Iván Herrera (C, St. Louis Cardinals) – Especially after returning from injury, the playing time is going to be a bit frustrating, but the talent is simply too good to miss out on. The sample size is still small, but a 25% Barrel% higher than his 22% K% makes that clear.
12-team
Daulton Varsho (OF, Toronto Blue Jays)
Yes, I get that there’s huge risk involved in buying into someone who currently sports a 42% K%. That is not good. But a 29% Barrel% and 57% HardHit%? That is very good. I want to target cases like him that seem like “boring” players, but actually have a Daul-ton of upside left.
After a few years of being a player with mediocre raw power who tried to volume his way into homers with a high flyball rate, suddenly after returning from injury, his bat speed is phenomenal at 76 MPH, and it’s translating into games with a 96 mph average exit velocity. It’s quite possible that teams who roster him will be scared by the K rate, especially after what happened to Kyren Paris and most other hitters who come near that number, but I’m optimistic that’ll improve. After all, his contact% of 70%, while a big step down from his last year’s mark of 76%, is still indicative of a 30% K% that can work for a power hitter.
Not only that, he actually has a above-average CSW% thanks to his frankly, insanely high 80% rate of swinging at strikes. I love when a player can manage to be that aggressive in the zone while still being relatively patient on balls, which he still is with an 30% O-Swing%. He should be a beast in 12-team OBP, though he may still be availabe in 15-team leagues that have weekly FAAB. If you need waiver wire power, spend up on him, or try to acquire him now before a massive power binge closes your window.
Hunter Goodman (C/OF, Colorado Rockies)
He’s not Charlie Brown, but he is a Goodman. And his team is the one trying to kick the football and missing every time. I’ll admit he’s a player who I had written early on as a shallow league sell, as it seemed he suddenly forgot the excellent contact skills he displayed in Spring Training. But while no, he’s not rocking a single-digit K%, he’s adjusted to making more contact, but it’s actually the power he’s displayed that makes me more intrigued.
I’ll admit I looked at his Statcast page and my first thought was “Actually, I was wrong about everything, he’s a SELL!” I mean, a .243 xBA and .410 xSLG aren’t so good, and his 22% K% (47th percentile) must regress thanks to his terrible 12th percentile whiff percentage. But fortunately, I’m a nerd, and looking deeper, I see that his low K% actually is not sus, but rather sustainable, thanks to an elite 78% Z-Swing%. And while the expected stats are bad, Statcast always under-projects Rockies despite their home park, and Goodman actually does what I want every Rockies hitter to do: Hit ball often, hit ball hard, hit ball in air.
Given his crazy raw power, breaking last year’s max with a MaxEV of 116 mph, I think his 49% HardHit% should maintain or improve, while his 8% barrel% should increase as he learns to reach his top-end velos with more consistency. I also think his 13% HR/FB% is likely quite low as he hit 19% in his rookie year. His biggest weakness is runs produced just for being on the worst team in the NL (if not the majors), but it might be canceled out by getting playing time more regularly than the standard catcher. If he’s not rostered, add him for the easy 30 homer upside with decent average, and target in trades if you know your leaguemate relies on Statcast sliders like high school students rely on ChatGPT.
Drake Baldwin (C, Atlanta Braves)
I hope you didn’t insta-drop him when Sean Murphy came back. He got off to a rough start to the season like a typical rookie should, but Baldwin has gone meteoric with a .329 AVG and 4 HR in 70 PA, thanks mostly to his insane week in which he batted .643 with 2 homers in 14 PA. I think the strong performance should continue thanks to his high barrel rate and low strikeout rate. On that note, even though all of his hits over the last 3 weeks aside from this week’s two taters were singles, he’s hit .481 over 27 AB over the past 3 weeks, with only 3 K, which rounds to a 10% K% over that span. Yeah, I think now that Jake Lamb is gone, and let’s face it, he was good for a short time and there are lots of Jake/Jacobs in the league I think we can start calling him Rake Baldwin. It’s better, okay?
The only thing holding him back from being 12-team viable is consistent playing time, and if he keeps this up, he could start pushing Murphy out like catchers seem to do to Murphy every year. He certainly paid off the team’s trust with the lion’s share of PT this week, whereas Murphy has cooled off from his blistering start in his IL return. I see Baldwin as an Iván Herrera-lite as he’s still very good but not just as elite in his batted ball data, and has stiffer competition for PT, but his value when he does play will make him well worth it in a Ryan O’Hearn kind of way. And I like me some Ryan O’Hearn.
15-team
Addison Barger (3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays)
When I realized how hard he was hitting the ball, I barged into every team rostering Barger’s DMs. It’s so annoying that I discovered Addison Barger was a great buy-low just a few days before he started to break out. But hey, maybe I’m no longer getting in on the ground floor, but level 1 or 2 of a skyscraper isn’t so bad. Yes, I know he still only has 1 homer and is hitting .224, but he is destroying the ball this year, with an average EV of 94 mph, a HardHit% of 50%, and most excitingly, a MaxEV of 117 mph. He’s also made big contact strides with a 19% K%, way down from his 2024 rate of 28%. So try to forget the surface stats and see why Statcast gives him an xBA of .284 and xSLG of .444.
If that wasn’t enough, I think he’s sporting some of the most impressive plate discipline, being aggressive on strikes with a 73% Z-Swing%, yet super-stingy off the plate with a 21% O-Swing. Not only that, he’s pulling a ton of his contact, with an extreme 59% FB%, while also getting the ball in the air with a 39% FB% rate. You love to see it. While he doesn’t run, I think with these tools, he may be one of the few players with the ability to hit .270 with a .360 OBP and a 25 homer pace the rest of the way that still has been relatively dormant. I think at the very least he’s worth a low-ish FAAB bid in 15-team leagues, but an add-and stash who could even be viable soon in 12-team OBP.
Jordan Lawlar (SS, Arizona Diamondbacks)
Go ahead, get mad at me for calling him a 15-team add, but hey, I’m still calling him an add! I know his season in the minors has been outstanding and it certainly says that he’s ready. I’m just saying if you need someone who is earning fantasy value NOW, it’s going to be harder to get from someone who is probably playing about 4 games a week as Perdomo isn’t leaving and he’ll basically be more of a super-utility type. Don’t hate the writer, hate the team situation.
On top of that, the fact that he’s crushed the minors doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be awesome in the majors, if the examples of Coby Mayo and Nick Kurtz have taught us nothing. Sure, he crashed and burned once so maybe he’s learned and will have an early-career Kyle Tucker-esque bounceback, but the leash on a contending D-Backs lineup will be short. He’s worth taking as a 12-team or maybe even 10-team spec if you have a lot of bench room, since the power/speed upside is elite (particularly the speed), but if I rostered him (since let’s face it, he’s probably already taken in all but the shallowest leagues already), I’d probably try to sell now like he’s a new car that loses value the moment it leaves the lot. Because the dreaming on his upside is still probably nicer than whatever reality we end up with.
David Hamilton (2B/SS, Boston Red Sox)
His expected stats are still terrible, and have actually been trending worse until the past week. But we need to remember that Hamilton is a guy who stole 33 bases in his sleep last year, and also was relatively dormant before a surge to fantasy relevance last summer after he suddenly remembered how to hit. While he’s still not playing every day even after the Casas injury, he’s still hitting .375 with 1 HR and 3 SB in 24 AB over the past 2 weeks, so it might be time to scoop him off the scrap heap, even though it’s possible his decent hard hit rate surge in 2024 was a one-year peak. I’m still not sure if he’s fully 15 viable as a starter unless you badly need SB, but he’s the kind of guy you want to at least add for your bench and hold for a bit to see if he takes off.
Deep Leagues
Matthew Lugo (OF, Los Angeles Angels)
While both of his homers were as a pinch hitter, the team is bad enough that he can earn more reps with even another good game or two, likely at the expense of the tailspinning Kyren Paris. Lugo’s minor league stats don’t inspire a ton of confidence, but his 74 mph bat speed combined with his hilariously elite Statcast metrics on his tiny sample of 10 PA are why I added him in my AL-only and 30-team leagues a few days ago, since he could at least have a hot run. I also have the pitcher Lugo so I now collectively call these Lugo teams “Setthew”.
Tim Elko (1B, Chicago White Sox)
The good and the bad are pretty darn clear here. You’re taking him hoping his 69% in Triple-A is tempered by his incredible hard contact, highlighted by a 117 MaxEV at Triple-A. Man I love Statcast being in Triple-A. Given Vaughn and the team’s struggles, he’ll probably be given a decent leash, though his cold start does have me shaking in my boots that the quality of contact has been pretty poor outside of his homer. At least the contact quality has been good with a 78% Contact% and a good sense of balls and strikes, though the sample is still too small to go more in-depth than that. He’s a viable depth add in 15-team OBP but in batting average leagues I would only likely start him for now in AL-only.
SELL
10-team
Bryan Reynolds (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates)
His offensive line is looking like Deadpool’s face. Maybe he really wants to b Ryan Reynolds. His bat may as well be a baby knife as he’s hitting just .198 with 5 homers and 3 SB, with a miserable week hitting just .040/.077/.040 with 9 Ks in 25 AB. Even though his expected stats say he’s been unlucky with a .254 xBA and .478 xSLG, his rolling xwOBA has still been trending downward. While he’ll probably bounce back some, the bar for 10-team bats is high, and while he’s hitting the ball hard, he has not one but two problems. One is that his strikeout rate is way up to 28%, and the other is that he’s hitting more balls into the ground, with a worse launch angle than Yandy Díaz.
With one limiting his batting average and the other limiting his power, he might end up being more of a .250 18 HR 10 SB player as a realistic upside. I’ve never liked his player type since he always seemed fringy, but I will take a moment to hedge. His bad K rate isn’t supported by the peripherals, which say it should be about the same as last year aside from a bit more patience/passivity. And while he’s hit more grounders, his usually high line drive rate is what took the hit more than flyballs, and that’s a noisy stat. So in deeper leagues, I might actually buy at 50 cents on the dollar. But in 10-team… let’s follow the KISS method. He’s underperforming, even his expected stats are pedestrian, and worst of all, he plays for the Pirates.
Brandon Lowe (2B, Tampa Bay Rays)
Maybe he’s mixed up, because him finally being healthy and getting hype and then having a terrible start to this season is very Onbrand Lowe. While he’s still hitting the ball hard with a 91 mph exit velocity, and has a decent enough 5 homers and 1 SB, it comes with a .199 batting average, and has an xwOBA that has been trending in the wrong direction. It’s true that his xBA of .256 is much better still, and his PullAIR% is a career-high, but given he’s still in a platoon, he just doesn’t cut the 10-team mustard.
12-team
Anthony Santander (OF, Toronto Blue Jays)
You better watch out, you better not cry, his five percent barrel rate means I surely won’t buy, Santa Nder’s current outlook is down. He’s not bringing any presents other than being ho ho-hum with a .190/.273/.327 line with 5 homers. It’s not great when last year he neared a .600 SLG% and this year .600 is his OPS. It’s not the first year he’s had a slow start, as last year he also had a big second half. But if getting used to new digs wasn’t enough, he’s now also dealing with a back issue, which are notorious for lingering and sapping power. In 12-teamers I’d still try to hold, but given that without power, he can’t contribute in any category with no speed and poor batting average, I think you’d be better off with the top names on the wire.
Carlos Correa (SS, Minnesota Twins)
He’s warmed up a bit lately, but especially after seeing what happened to Seager, I just feel the other shoe is going to drop with him, and just when he starts to turn it around, he’ll hit the IL. Even if healthy (and I somewhat doubt he’s not playing through an injury given the weaker contact), he offers zero speed at a position where it’s usually abundant, so that 4% barrel% is not going to cut it.
15-team
Javier Báez (3B/SS/OF, Detroit Tigers)
You call this a triumphant return to fantasy stardom, I call this Confirmation Báez. That was actually the name of my fantasy team a few years back! Javier is suddenly hotter than a Detroit-Style Pizza, but, like, I’m not believing it. And lots of people are. Yes I know the narrative about the hip getting better and maybe the added challenge of taking on new positions, maybe the fire under his butt from competition to the suddenly competent Trey Sweeney. Or maybe his star sign is aligned with his moon sign while Saturn is in retrograde. But nothing in his underlying stats signifies that anything is different about him, so I’m going to choose to believe this is nothing more than a hot run for a player that is mediocre, something that happens many times to different mediocre players over the course of the season.
There are lots of smart people in the industry that clearly disagree with me, as he went for over $100 FAAB in many leagues, and I’ve already heard about the narratives explaining his sudden success on quite a few podcasts. If you want to stream, given his position eligibility, go ahead I guess, but I would only add him hoping to immediately flip him to someone who has listened to those other podcasts. Because if he suddenly was finally feeling healthy, why does his underlying stats look almost exactly like last year. Why is his Statcast page still completely blue, including in quality of contact metrics? I scout the statline and ignore most narratives, which kept me from splurging on Kyren Paris (and his Aaron Judge coaching), so I’ll stay firm here. He might be streamable in 15-team AVG leagues, but not in OBP, and I’d try to trade now in any trade leagues.
Luis Rengifo (2B/SS/3B, Los Angeles Angels)
After being this useless all season, his owners likely wish he would RENGTFO. In a rather large sample, he has hit a pitiful .209 with a .274 SLG%, with only one homer and one stolen base (2 caught stealing). On such a lousy team, that means he only has 3 RBI and 3 R in his last 50 AB over the past 3 weeks. Fellas, you don’t want your hitter pacing for 500 AB and 30 RBI and 30 R. But also the Angels are bad, and even still Rengifo is so bad that Tim Anderson, who I got flak for calling a deep league cut because he was too irrelevant to even mention, that Tim Anderson is taking PT from him. Ouch.
Despite the terrible surface stats and underlying stats that don’t bring much comfort (especially the SB since he always did grade as a below-average runner by sprint speed). But I’d still hold in AL-only leagues in the hopes he turns this around because we know what he can do when healthy, but 15-teamers can’t afford to trudge through this mess any longer. I mean, I expected him to regress, but maybe there’s something else going on here. Because this is ludicrously bad, and you can’t spell ludicrous without Luis.
Deep Leagues
Rece Hinds (OF, Cincinnati Reds)
After hitting 2 homers, I wanted to write him as a buy, and then looking at the peripherals made me audibly gag so loud I almost was given the Hindslich Manuever. The playing time has been sporadic thus far, but he’s already hit two homers, and if the Reds want, they can certainly make room for him in their lineup. But they shouldn’t, because even though he has hit a ridiculous 50% barrels, his contact rate is a cartoonish 36%. That’s not off-the-charts, that’s off the planet that invented charts and in a whole new dimension where creatures only speak in whiffs. Speaking of which, his SwStr% is 33%, but his CSW% is somehow even worse, at 47%. Small sample or not, that may be worse even than Domingo Santana’s rookie cup of mud.
Nolan Gorman (2B/3B, St. Louis Cardinals)
He’s hit .143/.250/.143 in 7 AB over the past week. And you know the sad thing. That’s an improvement. Because over the past 3 weeks, he’s hit a pathetic .088/.250/.118. Where’s the beef? Given that his playing time, which he had been given without earning it, is now drying up, I think it’s time to cut not just in NL-only, but maybe even in keeper and dynasty. I mean, I’m a few days for cutting my 3-year contract with him in a 30-team dynasty. Because he’s a ghost of what he was in his rookie year… a Phantom Gourman.
