Welcome to this week’s Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is, everyone just wants to see Jac in the box. The batter’s box, that is. Hopefully you’re not in a situation where he’s still around and you didn’t keep a pulse on the minors and scoop him up in anticipation. I’m kind of burying the lede here, there are other special players arriving two as it seems the Super Two deadline is among us and some other players didn’t make the cut this week (David Fry, Jacob Melton) but I’m still keeping tabs on them. But did you hear that Jac Caglianone was called up? So on to the list!
BUY
10-team
Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles)
Ladies and Gentlemen, meet the Orioles’ best hitter. Man would that have been a wild bet to go to Vegas with in April, would’ve been the longshot O’Hearn around the world. He’s hitting an impossible .335/.423/.538 with 9 homers and 3 SB in 173 AB (201 AB). So clearly, he’s being rostered and started in all leagues, right? WRONG! He’s currently only rostered in 75% of CBS leagues and started in 63%, as of today. My question is who are you possible starting or rostering over him? Perhaps the platoon label has stuck to him, but he’s hitting the ball against everyone and showing no signs of slowing down, with elite hard contact combined with his miniscule K rate. Ride it til the wheels fall off (yet don’t assume they will) in all formats.
Jac Caglianone (1B, Kansas City Royals)
Odds are he’s already been scooped up in your league, if not weeks or months ago. But maybe, just maybe the fact he went 0-for-5 in his debut might give his owner a pang of doubt that they just got Nick Kurtz debut part 2, and want to sell the new car just as it’s pulling out of the lot. If that’s the case, double down and make a strong offer for him, because, if I’ll allow myself to get a bit granular, he showed he’s going to have no problems crushing the ball, with four hard-hit balls and the two hardest highest exit velocities of the night, and perhaps just as importantly, didn’t strike out once. If you try to wait a week and hope he’ll be cheaper, your odds of getting him will be Cagliaslim to Caglianone.
Honorable Mention: Isaac Paredes (1B/3B, Houston Astros) – Not only is he taking advantage of Houston’s famed short porch as expected, he’s making harder contact this year (33% HardHit%) than any year since his breakout (28% in ’24-25), with the best LA SweetSpot% (40%) of his career. A .260, 35 homer campaign is a real possibility.
12-team
Jake Burger (1B/3B, Texas Rangers)
Okay, I’ve written about him too many times, the name/food thing has gotten stale… Well, uh, did you notice that if you scramble his name, he’s the GerBer Baby? …yeesh. Well, he’s definitely been bland as baby food since his return, making us wonder if he didn’t learn a dang thing from his little minors stint. But I implore you to not give up, as he had a huge second half last year, and his process stats remain better than his season totals from last year.
He’s managed the same passable 26% K%, with a 15% Barrel% closer to his breakout 2023 season than his 12% rate in 2024, and also has a career-best 51% HardHit%. While his LA SweetSpot% is down a bit, I think it’s overall a good thing that his launch angle of 16 degrees is a career high. His rolling xwOBA is also trending up, and I think that given the Rangers’ overall team dysfunction, they’re not going to bench him and tank his value with all of his indicators signaling he’ll have a couple crazy weeks to make everyone forget he was ever getting left for dead in shallow leagues. Just note he’s worse than ever in OBP with a career-worst 3% walk rate, though that should also improve with a 36% O-Swing% tied for his career bests. Get someone to flip him to you (not the Burger, the GurBer baby food obviously) in 12-team formats and keep the faith.
Gavin Sheets (1B/OF, San Diego Padres)
I tried to drown my sorrows after not once, not twice, but THRICE adding him in April & May in my FAAB leagues only to let him go after seeming to always catch his down weeks. Now I’m three Sheets to the wind. This might seem like a weird time to finally advocate for him given that he’s hit just .180 over the past 3 weeks, tanking his season line, though he also has 5 homers over that span. So he should be fine, don’t wet the bed over it.
And while he’s hitting just .154 this week with 1 homer, he has a sneaky good 4/0 BB/K over 13 AB (17 PA) in that span, so the tide should turn shortly. He still has double his career barrel rate, and while that seem unsustainable given his ho-hum career, remember that A. He’s a big dude at 6’3, 235 lbs who entered the league with 113 mph Max exit velocity and B. Until this year, he played with the White Sox, where high upside hitting talent goes to die. Given he’s now no longer in a strict platoon and has the useful dual eligibility, he should be rostered in all 12-team formats and started, and now may be a rare opportunity to buy low on him despite the fact that his rolling xwOBA is surging.
Honorable Mention: Alec Bohm (3B, Philadephia Phillies) – It’s true that he only has 5 HR, but that’s five more than he had a month ago, and all of his expected stats are converging on his career rates. It’s notable that his bat speed is way down compared to previous years, but his Hard Hit% at 50% is a career high, so I expect him to be a big run producer this summer.
Honorable Mention: Yainer Diaz (C, Houston Astros) – Much of what I can say about Bohm is the same for Yainer, though Yainer’s rolling xwOBA is more on the upswing right now, and even though he seems to have less power than when he debuted, Yainer has also been hottest over the summer months by a huge margin over his career, so get onboard now even in 12-team OBP and all AVG formats.
Honorable Mention: Parker Meadows (OF, Detroit Tigers) – He’s been rather forgotten, but he’s already stinging the ball since his return with a 97 MPH eV, and still offers similar power/speed upside as before and in a much better lineup. Spec add now and see if he can keep it up.
15-team
Tyler Stephenson (C, Cincinnati Reds)
I have long been a Stephenson skeptic, but he’s finally doing what I wanted him to do this whole time, and show that he actually has power. Granted, it’s been a bit uneven, with a 38% K% that’s way out of his career norm, but he also has a sexy 17% Barrel% that’s nearly double his 2024 rate, thanks to combining an excellent 59% HardHit% with an equally elite 48% LA SweetSpot%. I expect thing to even out as he gets his reps in, but I think that although he still hasn’t impressed with raw power (108 MaxEV), if he can keep the ball getting hit hard in the air in Cincy, many more homers will be coming and be worth the potential batting average drain.
Honorable Mention: Marcus Semien (2B, Texas Rangers) – Perhaps this is a lukewarm endorsement as he certainly wasn’t drafted as a 15-teamer relevant player only, but he’s gone enough between “the peripherals indicate he should be fine” and “stick a fork in him” that I can at least feel more confident starting him over Ernie Clement. …Hooray?
Honorable Mention: Rowdy Tellez (1B, Seattle Mariners) – Given he was just made available in my 30-team dynasty, perhaps it seems too much to say he’s worth discussing in 15-teamers, but his .253 xBA, .504 xSLG, and career-best 16% Barrel% (93rd percentile) suggest we should start taking him more seriously, and is an excellent buy-low since nobody seems to take Rowdy seriously. Is it the first name?
Honorable Mention: Nick Loftin (2B/3B, Kansas City Royals) – We obviously don’t think his 17% Barrel% (3 barrels in 20 PA) will last, but what we do know is that he makes good contact, has some speed, draws a TON of walks (21% BB% in Triple A with just a 12% K%), and is better than Michael Massey with his eyes closed. Makes for a fine versatility fill-in in 15-team OBP formats with some upside and lots of floor.
Deep Leagues
Josh Bell (1B, Washington Nationals)
Speaking of 1B nobody takes seriously, time marches on for whom the Bell tolls (as in a toll on your batting average). He’s still hitting just .186 despite his recent power binge bringing him to 9 homers, and while the expected stats are better with a .235 xBA and .441 xSLG, that’s not exactly encouraging, is it? Still, Bell’s peripherals all look the same or slightly better than last year, and we know at this point he’s not new to big early season swoons and second half surges. So in deeper formats, it’s time to add Bell for the tacos.
Honorable Mention: Jonatan Clase (OF, Toronto Blue Jays) – He’s certainly looking much more interesting this year than his 2024 debut flop, hitting the ball harder and with a more acceptable strikeout rate, making him a nice sleeper in deep leagues for SB and especially in dynasty leagues where folks moved on to a new shiny toy.
Honorable Mention: Shay Whitcomb (OF, Houston Astros) – I could also write about Jacob Melton here, as he seems to have the inside track to playing time, with Whitcomb not having entered a game yet. I like him too if you need playing time, but I think Whitcomb is worth the stash since he did just hit 18 homers in Triple-A and should be given a chance to at least play at DH over Victor Caratini. Though I’d take Melton if you don’t have room to bench/stash and you need the safer, lower upside option.
Honorable Mention: Nolan Jones (OF, Cleveland Guardians) – The fact he just crossed the Mendoza Line and has pitiful power/speed results, but he’s hitting .533 this week with a 4/0 BB/K this week. That plus his 97th percentile hard hit% and a passable K% makes me think a breakout is incoming.
SELL
10-team
Geraldo Perdomo (SS, Arizona Diamondbacks)
Despite being solid, he was so erased from our memory that I took to calling him Perdomo-Kun. Seriously I don’t know how that cute little brown guy didn’t stay relevant in 2025 when Hello Kitty is still here. He’s been one of the best fantasy performers, with a .276/.374/.424 line with 6 homers and 11 SB, the total package leading him to rank among the tops of player raters at the position. But let’s face it, we all knew the other shoe was going to drop by midseason, didn’t we? Much like expecting Eovaldi to have a midseason IL stint that he comes back from a shell of his 1st half self (which sadly didn’t stop me from trading for him a few weeks ago), Perdomo was arguably the league’s top regression candidate as his expected stats were worse by a country mile.
He’s hitting just .159 with no homers or stolen bases over 44 AB the past two weeks, and not a single extra-base hit, and just .095 this week. While it’s true that he’s managed to outproduce his expected stats every year so I’d assume he will continue to do so, I think you’re still jumping off the ship early enough to still get a decent haul for him based on the anchoring to the excellent season stats (especially the stolen bases and runs produced). If you could get, say, a slumping Zach Neto, a Jeremy Pena, Bo Bichette, I’d do that in a heartbeat and even throw an additional swap in their favor to seal the deal.
Dishonorable Mention: Spencer Torkelson (1B, Detroit Tigers) – It might not seem entirely fair given his huge start and upside, but Torkelson has been cooling off and starting to lose playing time to Colt Keith with the return of Parker Meadows. You probably could still get a buyer in a trade, so I’d highly recommend trying over an outright drop, but he’s no longer in the upper echelon of 1B options in shallow formats due to the batting average damage.
12-team
Salvador Perez (C, Kansas City Royals)
You can quote his expected stats to me all you want, but they’re not going to be the savior for Salvador. While his season-long process stats all look relatively healthy, he actually was hitting the ball better in April and has been cooling off ever since, so the fact that he was unlucky early isn’t really as relevant as it may seem. And, well, it’s probably also worth noting the fact that Statcast expected stats don’t take sprint speed into account, and ol’ Sally is slower than molasses in January… I’m actually not sure if that’s considered insensitive to the victims of the deadly Great Molasses Flood (January 15th, 1919). Too soon? Point is, no matter what the xSLG says, Sal is not legging out any triples barring some really bad defense.
Given that catching is the most exhausting position, that Perez has a bigger workload than any other MLB catcher over his career, and the fact that Father Time is undefeated and working against the 35-year-old backstop, I’d try to trade him in a deal for a “pop-up” option like Hunter Goodman or a different buy-low like Yainer while trying to hint for them to look at his expected stats without the context. Can you ask them to put some duct tape on the part of the screen showing his rolling xwOBA? Worked for my check engine light. Cut in all 12-team OBP formats and try to flip in AVG formats.
Dishonorable Mention: Jorge Polanco (2B, Seattle Mariners) – On May 1st, he was hitting .389 with 9 homers, but he’s crashed back to earth, and is hitting .104/.157/.104 over 48 AB (50 PA) over the past 3 weeks, with only ONE RBI. In three weeks. Maybe he’s hurt, maybe it’s regression dragons, but it’s not Maybelline, because in 12-teamers, you can’t makeup for that slump.
15-team
Pavin Smith (1B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks)
The date was April 23rd. Weather was still cool, Bo Bichette hadn’t hit a single home run and people wanted to drop him, and Pavin Smith just hit his 4th homer, with a .533 BABIP, and he was on top of the world. Cue to a picture of Ms. Havisham’s cobweb-covered wedding dress, the date of June 4th, and Pavin Smith staring at his bat, wondering why he hasn’t homered since that fateful day. Well, it was the best of times, now it is the worst of times.
Sure, his batting average still sits at .285, and his BABIP is still quite high at .409, but the expected stats shed further doubt with an ugly .231 xBA and .424 xSLG much closer to his role-playing 2023 numbers than his 2024 small sample breakout. He’s clearly not breaking out of a platoon with Grichuk anytime soon, and when you have to ponder whether you’re better off with him or Nathan Lukes, you really should wonder what you’re holding onto with him. Me thinks it was the past. If you’re using his season line assuming a decent batting average will continue in spite of his 30% K%, you probably should stop having such great expectations. UPDATE: No status change, but I realized I missed the opportunity to call him Ms. Pavinsham. Fixed.
Dishonorable Mention: Luis Rengifo (2B/3B,Los Angeles Angels) – He’s gotta be hurt, right? I mean, he has an injury-riddled past, and he only has one stolen base all season with four caught stealing. There’s no power, and no sign the production is turning around, well aside from the .273 xBA but I guess I just have trouble believing it? Maybe it’s not an injury and he’s just been listening to too much Depeche Mode. We’ve all been there.
Deep Leagues
Jose Trevino (C, Cincinnati Reds)
In April, he kept the good numbers flowing like the Jose Trevi Fountain. But the well has dried up, with him hitting just .185 with no homers and just 2 RBI in the past three weeks. Now that Tyler Stephenson has returned and bounced back from his rough adjustment period already, Trevino is only playing occasional games as they cycle from catcher to DH, and with the lack of offense, he really doesn’t deserve more at-bats at DH. His .278 batting average may have blinded you to the fact that he’s been a liability, but even though he lacks the baggage of Trevor Williams, it’s time to say Nevino Trevino.
Michael Massey (2B, Kansas City Royals)
His fans are leaving his side en Massey. After two solid years averaging 15 homers and a passable batting average, he suddenly seems as punchless as the mild sauce at Taco Bell (sorry I referred to them early but now I have a craving). With all of his quality of contact down across the board and not rising, and a 1st percentile xwOBA of .248 (that’s bad), and also no speed, he’s only startable in Worstball leagues (actually probably not that either because Nick Loftin seems to be the new Kansas keystone kid on the block). He’s cuttable in all leagues, and somehow is even worse in OBP formats.
Dishonorable Mention: Edgar Quero (C, Chicago White Sox)
This may surprise you, given that Quero was recently hitting .300 and still has great plate skills, but now he’s down to just .250 after hitting .180/.255/.440 over 50 AB the past 3 weeks. While it’s true he was a top prospect and is still just 22, his xwOBA is in a major tailspin with just a .211 xwOBA. That’s, y’know, supposed to be higher than your batting average. Maybe Korey Lee wasn’t so bad. Cut in non-keeper formats.
