Welcome back to Buy & Sell, or perhaps I should honor Miz’s 12-strikeout game by saying Buy or Shell, which I am using as an unsmooth segue to this great manager quote from Pat Murphy about Jacob Misiorowski after his last start: “He’s just broken the shell, man. He’s just out of the egg. All arms and legs. He’s still got gooey stuff coming off him. He’s something special.” This is not an article about pitching, but you needed to see this. Now I will forever imagine him as Sheldon from Garfield & Friends. Many rookie hitters this year are also quite raw this year, but hopefully a bit less gooey. Also I definitely hope you heeded my call to buy low on Seager, Agustin, and Ottomatic Lopez, but sorry if you dropped Pham in deep leagues. On to the list!
BUY
10-team
George Springer (OF, Toronto Blue Jays)
I guess Springer actually prefers summer. He’s been the hottest hitter on the planet (well maybe aside from Seager, but he’s definitely not available now). His underlying numbers had been calling for this even during the slump that preceded it, and he’s now rocking an insane .507 xwOBA during this run. Believe it or now, even though he’s breaking personal bests as a 35-year-old, Statcast still thinks he’s been unlucky in terms of power, as his .281 AVG and .510 SLG% pale to his .287 xBA and .571 xSLG. Nice.
I know expected stats aren’t predictive, but should you still have any chance of adding him in any league do it now, but I’d “Buy high” in trades as well for any ageists in your league hoping to sell at the perceived peak. Because now his run production opportunities are up there with the very best with the whole Jays offense suddenly hitting his stride with him at the heart of it. 25/15 would be a great season but I still think a .290/30/20 season is well within reach.
Lawrence Butler (OF, Athletics)
He’s been among the more frustrating top 100 hitters to roster. And despite a two-homer game, with the rare distinction of hitting one inside-the-park (sadly minimized by Wilyer Abreu being the 6th player in MLB history to hit an inside-the-parker and a grand slam in the same game a few weeks back). But it’s a good reminder of Butler’s talent, though there has not been much optimism to find in the expected stats. I mean, he was really in a deep funk, with a .284 xwOBA over his past 100 PA, but he’s started to turn the corner with a .311 xwOBA over his past 50 PA (.256 in the previous 50 PA).
The thing with Butler is, I don’t think you can afford to wait until you get the no-doubt sign that he’s ready for another homer binge, if this double dinger game wasn’t it. While his xBA of .238 and xSLG of .406 aren’t great and his 27% K% is concerning (24% K% in 2024), we’ve seen before how when he’s locked in, he can cut his K rate down, and he’s already hitting the ball plenty hard, he just needs to start lifting the ball more to take advantage of the hitter’s haven of a home park. Yes, basically my statistical argument here is “Trust the talent”. That’s why they pay me the big bucks.
Honorable Mention: Addison Barger (3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays) – He has ascended, even despite platoons, because he just crushes the ball and has cut his strikeout rate way down. He’s no longer a buy low but I expect his stock to continue to rise.
12-team
Adolis Garcia (OF, Texas Rangers)
Rostering him all season may have left you Adolistless. But I have a list of reasons he’s worth scooping now. Sometimes, you gotta get old school and trust the history… yes again. He’s among the biggest risers in the league for rolling xwOBA improvement over past 100 PA, with a .379 100 PA xwOBA up over 100 points from his previous .276 xwOBA. While he disappointed last season, his xBA of .257 and xSLG of .476 are well below his 2024 expected rates of a .227 xBA and .413 xSLG.
Perhaps the greatest reason of optimism are a career-high 93 mph average exit velocity, a career-high 20 degree launch angle (though his LA Sweet Spot% is typical), but most of all, a career-best 25% K% (and for what it’s worth, that’s rounding up, not down). Texas as a whole has played as a rather extreme pitcher’s park this year which may have impacted him, but he still now plays in a division with many hitters parks, and I expect him to still more than double his current homer total, with a chance of still passing last year’s total of 25 jacks on the year but with a better batting average. He’s still in his buy low window, but won’t be for much longer.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Nimmo (OF, New York Mets) – In terms of his rolling rates, he’s remained steady, but less you think he’s the same old guy, think again. He’s been much more aggressive this year, leading to much fewer walks but a career-best 92 mph exit velocity and 10% Barrel%, while still striking out at just 19%. If he can stay healthy, not only will he reach 25 dingers for the first time, he can even reach 30.
Honorable Mention: Spencer Torkelson (1B, Detroit Tigers) – The notoriously streaky hitter has once again turned the tables, and even in the games he’s not homering, he’s usually hitting a ball more than 390 feet. You simply can’t pass up a slugger like this when he’s on his game.
15-team
Colt Keith (1B/2B, Detroit Tigers)
This Colt seems finally ready to leave the stable. Two things have depressed his value enough that he’s still considered more of a 15-team play than a 12-team play: One is the complete lack of speed, one is his single digit homer total, and one is the fact he doesn’t face lefties. Wait, isn’t that three things? Exactly. Despite this, we saw last summer that Keith can make up for a slow start by hitting homers in bunches or a high average. And he’s hit .315 with 3 homers over 54 AB the past 21 days, and .450 with a homer and just 3 Ks in 20 AB this week.
With only 27 RBI, the run production has hurt him (the 40 runs scored is better), but he’s spending a lot of time hitting high in the Tigers lineup and as a result of his performance, his playing time quantity has been trending up. In leagues with 5-game in season eligibility, he also qualifies at 3B which greatly boosts his value given some of the struggles at the position, as it’s often easy to find batting average or power there but hard to find a hitter who can do both, and his .430 xwOBA over his past 100 PA indicates he can and will. Add in all 15-teamers and as a spec/streamer in 12-team and attempt to buy while his surface stats are still ho-hum.
Romy Gonzalez (1B/2B/SS, Boston Red Sox)
Since last year, I had been intrigued by Romy, and not just because he invented the Post-it Note. Or was that Michelle? He’s hitting .326 with 4 homers and 4 SB in just 129, and has been on fire lately, hitting .382 with 2 HR in 34 AB over his past 2 weeks and .471 with a homer this week. Statcast has been fully on board (note the small sample) with a .308 xBA and .553 xSLG, with the rolling xwOBA continuing to rise. Most intriguing is the underrated power with a 16% Barrel% and an incredible 95 mph average exit velocity, but it’s all made better by a career-best 23%.
If you missed out on Addison Barger, this may be the part two, but note that while the playing time is less guaranteed, he has better multi-position eligibility, which expands to include 3B and OF in certain leagues since he played 14 and 9 games at those positions last year, respectively, and 2 games at 3B this year. I’m targeting him in trades in deep leagues, but the fact that he’s been mostly a small side platoon bat until now means he may still be free to pickup in 15-team formats, and you simply don’t find this kind of power upside on 15-team wires very often.
Honorable Mention: Colson Montgomery (OF, Chicago White Sox) – Forget what you know, and just see 76. That’s his bat speed in miles per hour. That, plus the fact he surprisingly hasn’t struck out at a 50% clip, means the power upside is worth the dice roll.
Honorable Mention: Spencer Horwitz (1B/2B, Pittsburgh Pirates) – The Pirates offense has been historically bad, but Horwitz is still batting leadoff against righties, so in deeper 15-team formats he can be a category streamer for runs, and I remain optimistic that his shift to being more aggressive will pay more dividends at some point even if it hurts his OBP league appeal.
Deep Leagues
Andrew Vaughn (1B, Milwaukee Brewers)
I used to love the Von Bondies, but the Vaughn Bondies only play one song “C’mon, c’mon”. If you don’t get that deep cut because you never played Burnout 3: Takedown, it’s really your loss. Vaughn’s underlying stats indicated better days should be ahead, and believe it or not, but his 10% Barrel/PA is actually 22nd in all of baseball ahead of Vladito and Brent Rooker. And he did hit a homer in his first game back. Just like, don’t get too married to the idea that he’ll suddenly flip the switch in his new digs. But give it a test drive.
Honorable Mention: Jose Tena (2B/3B, Washington Nationals) – He’s logged over 150 PA and still hasn’t hit his first homer, perhaps due to his season launch angle being 0.7 degrees. He started the season horribly, but he has been the biggest xwOBA riser in baseball over his past 100 PA, so he should at least hit for decent batting average with the occasional stolen base, which may be good enough to treat water at some weak positions in very deep leagues.
SELL
10-team
Xavier Edwards (SS, Miami Marlins)
The Marlins are so hot right now, but like walking through the seafood market on the summer day, Xavier is one that to me still feels fishy. He’s been on a roll, raising his batting average to .292 with 15 stolen bases in 335 PA. What’s wrong with that? Well, for one, last year he stole 31 bases in just 303 PA. Stolen bases are finicky, but while we may think of him of Chandler Simpson at shortstop, the reality is that we may be collectively be overrating his speed.
While he’s certainly skilled at the stolen base, even last year, his sprint speed was only 78th percentile (Simpson’s is 99th, of course). And this year, it’s all the way down to 67th percentile. I think this is certainly a factor as to the quantity of stolen bases, as his 6 Caught Stealing this year ranks 3rd in the NL. That gives him a 72% SB Success rate this year, way down from last year’s 89% rate. Yikes. Now, granted, he is making more contact and hitting the ball harder this year, but when you have a player that hits 0 homers, that really doesn’t matter. I also have doubt with his diminished speed that he can continue to outhit his .261 xBA, and the speed juice is just not worth the power squeeze. Sell now while you still can in 10-teamers, though I’d try upgrading at short in any format due to the perceived value chasm.
Dishonorable Mention: Anthony Volpe (SS, New York Yankees) – Frankly, it’s a bit shocking for a player who debuted so much and showed so much power/speed already to be so disappointing in his age-24 season. With an awful .272 rolling xwOBA in his past 100 PA, it may be time to stop holding him on your bench waiting for the turnaround in 10-team formats and 12-team OBP.
12-team
Matt McLain (2B, Cincinnati Reds)
We were expecting him to be our prize racehorse but has been coming up McLame. I didn’t see it worth the risk to invest in him in any of my 11 drafted teams this year, since there was the dual risk of rookie year overperformance against expected stats plus the shoulder injury concerns not depressing his draft day price, but in any case, he’s been even worse than expected with a .203 AVG and just 10 HR and 12 SB. While that may seem passable for fantasy, his 74 wRC+ is so far below replacement level, one wonders if he could start losing playing time, especially with Noelvi Marte fielding the position in the past, and Sal Stewart continuing to tear the cover off the ball in Double-A.
I know that even with the rough start, we were probably hoping that if the injury was the issue, it would improve over time, but his rolling wOBA of just .225 certainly indicates that is not the case. I mean, that’s bad as a batting average, but as an xwOBA? Woof. It may be too late to scoop up Otto Lopez or Trevor Story, but I’d still expect whatever 12-team option is available to you to be overall more valuable to your team, even if they don’t steal as many bases.
Dishonorable Mention: Jac Caglianone (1B/OF, Kansas City Royals) – Look, if you have a deep bench, keep him on your bench. His upside is still high. But most leagues don’t have a deep bench, and his heavy groundball tendency and unraveling approach means in 12-team, the opportunity cost of his spot may not be worth it in redraft.
15-team
Matt Shaw (3B, Chicago Cubs)
This Cub may have needed a little more time hibernating in the den. One of the top hyped rookies of draft season (and part of the reason I as a rule tend to avoid the hyped rookie hitter lottery) he disappointed in his early debut, to crush the minors and return. I hope you were ready to be hurt again. He’s hit just .130/.238/.167 over 54 AB over the past 3 weeks, with the only silver lining that he stole 4 bases over that span. Yet he didn’t hit a single homer, and he’s been even worse the past week with a melted chocolate line in your pocket line of .048/.087/.048 in 21 AB. Almost makes the Cubs miss Paredes, eh?
Do I think this is just a bad stretch that will surely get better? Maybe in 2025, but I’m not getting my hopes up for this year. While his K rate under 20% has been surprisingly passable, his average exit velocity of 83 mph is Esteury Ruiz territory, and the 27% HardHit% isn’t much better. Heck, I bet the Cubs could beat that bringing back Travis Shaw. I’m fine with dropping and he’s the kind of guy I’d actually consider selling low on in dynasty (just not too low, okay?)
Dishonorable Mention: Ryan Ritter (SS, Colorado Rockies) –Maybe he was an NL-only play all along, but in any case, the intriguing minors numbers in no way have showed up in the majors, with a .224 AVG and .306 SLG% in 95 PA actually being lucky (.204 xBA and .247 xSLG). Upside shmupside, even in dynasty, pass on that like a warm Coors beer. Eugh.
Deep Leagues
Nick Allen (SS, Atlanta Braves)
B-But he plays every day! Y’know, that’s why he’s hurting you even more. No homers in 234 AB is almost impressive, and he’s hitting just .188 this week. On the year, a full season, he has just 15 RBI. FIFTEEN! You’re better off with a part-timer like Davis Schneider, really anything else that doesn’t give points for defense.
Michael A. Taylor (OF, Chicago White Sox)
There’s always a few weeks in the year he turns heads and reminds of his potent power/speed combo, but then his mid 30’s strikeout rate reminds us why he remains on the wire in even the deepest of leagues. With the return of Luis Robert, he’s returning to the backup role where he belongs.
