Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is “Last Month’s trash is this Month’s Treasure”. Too much time looking at xwOBA rolling windows will do that to ya. Several of the hottest hitters right now could have been picked up free on waiver wires just weeks ago even in AL-only leagues, because that’s just how baseball seems to be this year. And with more injuries cropping up (looking at you J-Rod and Albies), you’ll have to close your eyes and hope you pick a winner. Or read this instead and just maybe have the next one… though I guess you can close your eyes while you click if it makes you feel cool. I don’t recommend it, but I mean, you do you. On to the list!
BUY
10-team
Lawrence Butler (OF, Oakland Athletics)
I unwisely suggested Butler as a deeper league drop in June, and now Butler is serving up revenge hot. Yes, he is performing well only because he read my article. My reason’s to doubt him seemed valid, as his xwOBA was cratering after his return and his K rate was already north of 30%. But he’s hitting like gangbusters, hitting an insane .411/.461/.929 with 7 HR, 2 SB, 14 R and 21 RBI in just 3 weeks, leading Oakland to suddenly play like an offensive juggernaut. While his season numbers still pale in comparison, hitting .256 with 10 HR and 6 SB in 194 AB (216 PA) still looks mighty fine.
He reminds me a bit of an early career Khris Davis, who had some impressive raw power carrying his game but took a little while before hitting his stride and becoming a power-hitting force (well, until his bat suddenly turned into a pumpkin). What’s crazier is how Butler has hit this week, going .632 with a 4/2 BB/K ratio. I do think he’ll cool down because keeping this up is basically impossible, but with a 113 mph MaxEV and elite bat speed, I think he can at least be an Arozarena-type who provides enough power and speed to make up for the cold streaks, and the fact that Oakland is batting him leadoff lately just increases his chances to do damage.
Randy Arozarena (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
It seems that he’s finally breaking out of his long cold spell, hitting .333 with 3 HR and 1 SB this week, though 7 Ks in 20 PA gives me some pause. While he’s not stealing bases at his pace of old, and the .209 AVG is an eyesore, he still is pacing pretty close to 25 HR and 25 SB with his current 15/15 mark and will rack up tons of runs while hot hitting in the heart of the lineup.
Alec Burleson (OF, St. Louis Cardinals)
It seems the devil magic has struck again, as one of the unlikelier role players has broken out hitting .293 with 18 HR and 7 SB. Over the past 3 weeks, he’s clobbered 5 HR with a .343 AVG, 20 RBI, and 2 SB (2 CS) over 70 AB. He’s been the Cardinals’ best hitter. In hindsight, Statcast suggested he was unlucky last year despite strong skills, with a .277 xBA and .449 xSLG in 2023, and this year he has basically the same HardHit% (42%) with the same 13% K%, just with a slightly higher barrel rate.
12-team
Colt Keith (2B/3B, Detroit Tigers)
He’s the kind of guy where you might just need to peel your eyes away from his Statcast page and trust your gut, and ride with Colt until the end of the race. Keith’s rebound has gotten a lot less notice in fantasy circles than Langford, but has been almost as impressive, as he’s hit .345/.433/.741 with 6 homers and 1 SB in 56 AB over the past 3 weeks. Given he qualifies at two of the weakest positions, that’ll do.
While he has seemingly cooled off this week, which could lead to some drops for those jumping to the next shiny new toy, I think it’s important to note that he was basically homerless for the first two months of the season, but was always projected as a player with easy power. So even though the bat speed is league average, I think the fact that he’s managing to hit for power without completely abandoning his solid plate skills is a good sign he can be something like we were hoping Torkelson would be for us this year.
Zach Neto (SS, Los Angeles Angels)
It may not be flashy, but he’s hit .387 with 2 HR and 2 SB over the past 2 weeks, quietly raising his overall line to .257 with 13 HR and 16 SB. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his end-of-season line closer to .265-.275 with 20 HR and 25 SB, which is more or less what he is pacing for, yet his roster rate doesn’t reflect that if the name said “Bo Bichette” you’d be quite satisfied with this production.
Jo Adell (OF, Los Angeles Angels)
It’s actually been nearly a month now that he’s broken out of his strikeout funk with his xwOBA back on the rise, but the fact that his batting average is still under .200 keeps many from noticing. He has the same power/speed as Arozarena and while volatile, you’re better off taking a spec on him now than fighting the fray for him that could happen with another big week. After all, from a batted ball and plate skills standout, there’s still not really that much separating Adell from Lawrence Butler.
15-team
Victor Robles (OF, Seattle Mariners
I’m buying the triumphant return, knowing full well I may get defrocked and end up victor Robeless. Am I crazy to think he might finally break out with the change of scenery? Well, there have been lots of promising signs, including his .465 rolling xwOBA over his past 50 PA, a rise of over .200 xwOBA from his previous 50 PA. While I don’t think he magically transformed by switching coasts, he’s certainly barreling the ball better with a 14% Barrel%, which seems significant granted his Barrel% was 2-3% every year since 2020. His HardHit% of 36% is also definitely better than his career mark of 25%, and it’s impressive he’s managed that with his penchant for bunting. In his small sample, he’s hitting a helpful .288/.391/.397 with 1 HR and 11 SB (1 CS) in 90 PA. Not bad!
If the barrel rate was not enough, his 11 SB in 73 AB (90 PA) certainly helps, since it’s not like you were adding him for power anyway. While his sprint speed is no longer topping the charts, we know now that skill and moxie is what matters, and he’s still got that with something to prove. The Mariners seemingly have noticed, moving him to the second spot in the lineup, and the unfortunate J-Rod injury only increases his playing time security. I see a player with game-changing speed with potentially double-digit power (full-season rate) and decent batting average and OBP skills, making him one of the few “rabbits” I actually want to trust. I’d add in all 15-team leagues (already did in mine last week), and would recommend him as a speed spec/stream play in 12-team OBP.
Spencer Horwitz (1B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays)
I admit to missing climbing aboard the Horwitzer during his initial run, but after cooling off a bit, you may have an opportunity to hop back on. His once-excellent batting average has finally dipped below .300 after hitting just .222 with a homer over the past two weeks, leaving him with a still-solid line of .299/.399/.444 with 4 HR in 117 AB (131 PA). That said, his rolling xwOBA that had dipped has started to bounce back up, and the Jays being sellers at the deadline can open regular PT for him.
Eugenio Suárez (3B, Arizona Diamondbacks)
He had seemed to be on the verge of a DFA when he snapped into a slim jim and hit the jerky out of the ball, hitting .279 with 5 HR and 17 RBI in 60 AB over the past 3 weeks. That’s nearly double his homer total, and even though he’s cooled off, he could continue to be a power-only bat at a tough position who has earned much better playing time security.
Deep Leagues
Joshua Palacios (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates)
Pick up Palacios, people! Either one, really. But I may be actually more excited about Josh. The barrel rate thus far has been lacking, but he’s had excellent whiff and chase rates while also hitting the ball quite hard, which should yield better results than he’s had so far in his small sample. For what it’s worth, his xBA is .290.
Jorge Polanco (2B, Seattle Mariners)
He’s had a terrible season, no doubting that, but I think he’s turning it around. Until Tuesday he had a hit streak going, and even in Tuesday’s 0-for-4 he had 3 lineouts with a .800+ probability of being a hit. As much as the Mariners have a bad park for hitters, I expect Polanco to adjust and be at least able to hit .240-.250 with 6-9 jacks the rest of the way, and possibly more if he can hit his stride.
Jason Vosler (1B, Seattle Mariners)
Yes, he’s 30 without any major league success, but he did hit 20 jacks in the minors with a better strikeout rate, and I wonder if he’s going to be the first baseman that sticks around with the strikeout-prone Tyler Locklear trying to fill the shoes of Ty France. I mean, there was at least a week last year where he seemed pretty great.
Romy González (2B/OF, Boston Red Sox)
Yes, I know he’s mostly small-side platoon so really only has appeal in daily or super deep leagues. But I do think he’s overlooked as someone who has improved his K rate while hitting the ball hard and also stealing bases. With more PT he’s a sneaky add in all deep leagues.
SELL
10-team
Luis Robert Jr. (OF, Chicago White Sox)
I clearly have it in for him for his last name having a boring American pronunciation instead of having the silent t. The T stands for trade him! Because off course you’re not going to drop him, and yes of course obviously he can turn it all around in a hurry. I mean, he did just rip 7 homers in June. And yet, I think his value lies in that everyone knows his massive upside since you can net a big fish in a trade for him. Because I think he actually might not rebound as well as most of you think. The great thing is you can’t prove I’m wrong with that.
But here’s the thing: Although you’d expect Robert to warm up with more playing time, his rolling xwOBA has only gone in one direction, and it’s down. He’s the 5th biggest dropper in 250PA xwOBA, with a .305 xwOBA compared to a .384 mark in his previous 250 PA. .305 is not good, y’all. Over his past 100 PA, that xwOBA is just .292. And over his past 50 PA, it’s just .266. The main culprit is his ugly 33% strikeout rate, which is a bit surprising given that he seemed to be mostly over strikeout issues he had earlier in his career. While his contact% of 69% isn’t great, the bigger culprit is increased passivity of the plate, with a 16% Called Strike% compared to a career rate of 10%, giving him an ugly 31% CSW% that’s the worst since his rookie year. Sure, passivity can be fixed, but maybe he’s swinging less because he’s hiding an injury (it’s happened before) or he’s just too bummed with his dumpster fire of a team.
The point is you should trade him for 90 to 95 cents to the dollar because someone in your league is likely to pay that price, and not sell him low based on his current stats. If you can land a guy like Alec Burleson, I’d say you did quite well and have a much safer asset. After all, don’t forget that Robert also gets hurt a lot. And you don’t want to wait and be left holding that bag. In OBP formats, he’s an even bigger sell.
Adolis García (OF, Texas Rangers)
His summer swoon really has me down in the Aduldrums. Forget the 17 homers and 8 SB for a moment and realize his .209 AVG is tanking your team, and note he’s hit just .125 with 1 HR and 2 SB in 56 AB the past 3 weeks. The silver lining is that his MaxEV (116 mph) and his K% (26%) are actually the best of his career, but he neither has the elite barrel rate of last year nor the stolen base ability of years past (26th percentile sprint speed). Obviously, deep leaguers have no choice but to hold and hope he turns it around, but I’d recommend trying to trade him or cut him for a hot 10-team commodity. Like, would I trade him for Brent Rooker? In a heartbeat.
12-team
Juan Yepez (1B/OF, Washington Nationals)
I was just as eager as most of you to jump back on the bandwagon, but a closer look at Yepez made me say Actually, Nopez. He was last week’s darling in 15-team formats after surging back to the majors with a .377 AVG, 1 HR, and 1 SB in 59 AB, and with just a week left of the trade deadline, you need to know when to sell high, and I have a reason or two why. Now, he does have plus raw power (112 mph MaxEV), and this year, he’s managing to make a career-best 41% HardHit%, to go with a HUGE drop in his K% down from 31% to just 17% this year (22% in 2022). So he’s the next Alec Burleson, right?
Well, no. I mean, probably. See, his contact rates are actually almost the same, with a 75% Contact%, and an above-average 25% CSW% that was actually close to his career marks (26% in 2022, 27% in 2023). As for the hard contact, the sample is still too small to know if it’s just a good run fueled by a high ideal launch angle rate, but his bat speed is still below league average with a merely league-average squared-up rate. None of this is bad, per se, at best it could be kind of Kerry Carpenter-esque, but that’s the best case, and it’s more likely that he’s a moderately better version of who he has been. He’s a hold in 15-teamers for sure, but the batting average alone makes him a tasty trade chip, so pop him out now to get a treat for being a good Yepez Dispenser.
Rece Hinds (SS/OF, Cincinnati Reds)
If you hold him too long hoping to “ride the wave”, you’ll end up with 20/20 Hinds sight. He seems to be the next iteration of Aristides Aquino, the legendary debut that quickly faded. Now, Hinds’ power is 80 grade, and real, he did not cheat. But with a minors K rate above 30%, I’d go with the odds that MLB pitchers don’t adjust to him and get the book on him to make him whiff like crazy, and that average will plummet and you’ll be left with just Rece’s pieces. Perhaps the descent has already begun, so send out those offers right now! Mmm brb I’m suddenly craving peanut butter… in a candy shell thinner than Hinds’ BABIP.
15-team
Brandon Marsh (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)
Things have been getting pretty swampy for Marsh lately. He’s hit just .136 with a homer and no SB the past 2 weeks (smaller sample due to ASB in part), though he’s also dealing with injury issues. Early on it seemed he may have finally put it all together and become the power/speed threat that Brenton Doyle became, but the overall package of 13 HR and 11 SB with a .230 AVG is honestly kind of fringe even in 15-team formats, especially with so much of that production being frontloaded. He’s at some risk of losing more playing time, perhaps more than just the platoon he’s already been in.
Alex Verdugo (OF, New York Yankees)
At one point, he had a good average with moderate power and speed! Then it was good average and moderate power. Now it’s moderate power, and… WHERE’S THE AVERAGE, ALEX? He’s carried the team into the pits with his .230 AVG and even Gleyber has shown more promise with the bat than him. I’d much rather roll the dice on the likes of Tommy Pham or even Angel Martínez than continue with a guy who should be warming benches in the Verdugout.
Korey Lee (C, Chicago White Sox)
The good news is that Maldonado is finally gone, opening up full-time reps for Lee. The problem is the timing, since Lee’s strikeout rate has been climbing and batting average has been plummeting, increasingly revealing him as the weak-hitting defense-first catcher we thought he was prior to the season. I’d consider cutting him for a spec add of Kirk or Austin Wells, but with the handful of stolen bases, I still hesitate.
Deep Leagues
Joey Loperfido (OF, Houston Astros)
If the Astros had a single decent option, we would not be stuck with taking punches like a Lope-a-Dope. Not only has he struggled with a high K rate, but he has utterly failed to show any semblance of the promised big power we expected given his minor-league dominance. While he does have strong bat speed, it seems he just can’t square up MLB pitching and is running out of chances.
Danny Jansen (C, Toronto Blue Jays)
He’s now in a near-perfect timeshare with Alejandro Kirk, as they both have 8 AB this week and 29 AB over the past 3 weeks. Over that time, Kirk has hit .345/.353/.414 with 0 HR and 6 RBI. Jansen has hit .138/.242/.241 with 1 homer and 1 RBI. I don’t think I really need to explain the rest.
Ts are never silent in Spanish.