Buy & Sell 8/1 – Identifying Who to Add and Who to Drop

There ain’t no hangover like a crazy trade deadline hangover because a crazy trade deadline hangover makes you wonder why you spent so much time overanalyzing all of the trades that didn’t happen and reflect on how little we can actually predict. And that feeling don’t stop. Crochet stayed in Chicago because he hurt his GM’s feelings, the guys we thought were closers in waiting became another team’s middle reliever, and a lot of teams declined to trim their bushes into a maze. You know, because their moves were confusing hedges.

Still, there’s a fair degree of fallout, especially in AL and NL-only formats. And hey, after I was probably the only person on the planet saying to add Eugenio Suárez, Austin Wells, Victor Robles, and Jorge Polanco last week, maybe I can spit out some more gems for y’all this week. So on to the list!

BUY

10-team

Jackson Chourio (OF, Milwaukee Brewers)

His first half of the season may have driven you nuts, but the second half will bring the sweetness to your Honey Nut Chourios. Hey, if Coco Crisp got the cereal puns when his real first name was Covelli, I can do this. Chourio hit just .204 (though with four homers and five SB) in April and just .215 (with one HR and two SB) in May, but since then has hit an excellent .313 with seven homers and five SB combined through June and July. It seems like no fluke either, as he’s among the biggest improvers in xwOBA over his past 100 PA, with his current .390 rolling xwOBA crushing the .273 he put up in his previous 100 PA.

Sure, you could assume this is just a hot streak, but then you also need to remember who this is we’re talking about. A power/speed phenom who was drafted early, and even though his current .263 12/12 mark doesn’t light the world on fire and paces just short of a 20/20 season, remember that his playing time is safer than ever and elite young hitters like him tend to mature with time (that is if he can avoid “the wall” of late-season fatigue). His sprint speed is a superlative 98th percentile, and his success rate of 75% is good enough to keep getting the green light. In a still-formidable lineup even without Yelich, I expect him to keep contributing in all five categories, making him a must-roster and a good buy-low in 10-team AVG formats.

Jackson Holliday (SS, Baltimore Orioles)

I really was tempted to find a few more exciting rookies named Jackson so I could just call the article the Jackson Five. I mean, I still love Merrill but I just said to add him a few weeks ago, and you should add Jackson Jobe but he’s not a hitter. Holliday may not have made you feel well-rested after his ugly debut, with a 50% K% in a small 36% sample size. That said, he did better in his return to Triple-A, where he hit .271 with 10 HR and eight SB in 346 PA. That may seem underwhelming, but given the fact that he did this as a 20-year-old leaves me completely whelmed.

Sure, it’s unlikely he’s the next Juan Soto and has a breakout, but there has been a trend of players struggling in their first call-up, getting their footing, and then getting hot after a minors do-si-do (Lawrence Butler, Matt Wallner to name a few). He’s probably at the lowest value he’ll ever be in his career, so he remains a great buy-low in keeper leagues for now, and while I still somewhat doubt that he’s going to hit like more than an above-average regular (like, say, Jeremy Peña or Zach Neto) at best, I think you just have to not overthink it and bet on the talent of the top prospect in baseball.

12-team

Lane Thomas (OF, Cleveland Guardians)

It’s not the most obvious trade, but the move to an elite offense should boost his value. It’s true that he’s struggled against righties this year, and his current seven HR is a far cry from the 28 dongs he hit last year. On the other hand, the popular preseason “bust” pic actually has better peripherals this year thanks primarily to him cutting his K% from 26% to just 21% this year while maintaining a strong 41% HardHit%.

Also, he’s running like wild, with 28 SB eclipsing his 2023 mark of 20… and doing that in exactly half the plate appearances to last year (341 PA to 682 PA). Granted, Washington let even Jesse Winker run wild on the bases, and with 12 CS (70% success rate) not ideal, one wonders if Cleveland will give him the same green light. Still, they seem committed not to playing him in the top half of the order, which should make him an impact player for run production, and I expect the batting average and the power to improve some as well, so add in 12-team formats.

Colton Cowser (OF, Baltimore Orioles)

Cowser is finally crashing the Mario Party and breathing fire… and milk? He’s been a frustrating player to roster for much of the season due to lack of consistent playing time, but even before dealing away Stowers and Hays (and weirdly acquiring Jimenez and Slater) he’s been getting regular reps for the O’s, and from the leadoff spot. He’s taken to it quite well, hitting .400 with two homers over the past week, to raise his season line to .243 with 15 HR and seven SB in 301 AB. Somewhat similar to Chourio, the shape of that total is what matters, and while he lacks Chourio’s speed and extreme youth, makes up for it with raw power and batting eye. It’s time to grab and hold in 12-team formats and also 10-teamers.

 Tyler Fitzgerald (SS/OF, San Francisco Giants)

Fitz gave me quite the tantrum. Did you hear he had a great couple weeks?  Was just seeing if anyone was living under a rock because I think I can afford rent there. Too bad most of us didn’t get most of his .366 with seven HR and 12 RBI in 41 AB, at least in leagues with Sunday FAAB. It may feel a bit Rece Hinds-esque, given that Fitzgerald has contact issues of his own and seems like he could go stale given San Fran just plays five games this week, with only two from Monday to Thursday.

But here’s the rub, if you’re in a shallow league, the manager may be willing to flip him for the next hot ticket for that reason, I still think he’ll be good. For one, people keep talking about the power and not enough about his 99th-percentile sprint speed, which actually reminds me somewhat of another guy on this list, Lane Thomas. While I’m not saying he’ll have a breakout like Thomas’s lucky 2023, I do think it’s in the realm of possibilities given his barrel ability (fueled mostly by ideal launch angle goodness) and his patience at the plate making him less exploitable than the free-swinging Hinds. And of course, a speedy guy getting on base for free gives him more opportunities to do so, and his 78% success rate indicates he probably could afford to take more chances there.

In deeper leagues, he’s probably gone, but I think there’s enough shallow-league skepticism due to his ho-hum Statcast rates that he may still be cheap to acquire (if trades still happen) and could be an impatience cut if he cools off, in which case he’s a solid rebound bet.

Christopher Morel (OF/3B, Tampa Bay Rays)

I am once again asking you to add Christopher Morel. Sure, it didn’t pan out as I expected early in the season, despite him lowering his strikeout rate (also lowering his HardHit% some though). But the big-brain reason I say add him now is that the Rays make good trades, and aside from the mental benefit from a change of scenery, I see what they’re thinking.

Morel is a guy who hits the ball hard and hits it in the air a lot, but this year has been hitting too many pulled grounders, which are typically automatic outs. But! He hits the ball hard and he’s pulling! Now if they can just pull a 2023 Yandy with him and get him to pull more flyballs, he’s on easy street. Heck, he doesn’t have to even hit them hard, with the short left field fence (just 315 feet) in Tampa being much shorter (about 40 feet less than Wrigley’s left field corner. Not only that, but Statcast and Pitcher List both agreed Morel had some bad batted ball luck. So don’t fixate on the Mendoza line and instead focus on the significant power he can provide (with some speed).

15-team

Xavier Edwards (2B/SS, Miami Marlins)

Professor X has been putting on a freakish display of batting average and speed, hitting .522 with five SB this week with his first homer, and hitting  .380 with one HR and nine SB in just 92 AB. That’s unbelievable! In that, I don’t totally believe it. His contact skills are good but not elite (84% Contact%, 90% Z-Contact%) and his 102 mph MaxEV and 26% HardHit% make it unlikely he will hit many more dingers again. Still, he’ll rack up lots of SBs and runs hitting leadoff for Miami, giving him security and making him a viable stream in 12-team AVG leagues, though I think he mostly belongs in 15-team AVG league territory.

Michael Siani (OF, St. Louis Cardinals)

He gets a lot less fantasy love than Xavier Edwards (and deservedly so as a #9 hitter), but he’s also been red-hot, hitting .393 with four SB over 28 AB over the past two weeks. His playing time in center field appears safe and makes a viable pure speed play with his 14 SB in just 222 AB (also just 16 RBI).

Ernie Clement (2B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays)

He may not seem exciting, but he really isn’t so different from Arraez, with a low 7% K% to make up for a low walk rate (2%) while providing surprisingly cromulent power and speed (six HR, five SB). He looks to have more PT security following the departure of Jansen, and other injuries. He has a high batting average floor and is a must-roster glue guy in AL-only but also viable as a stopgap/streamer in 15-team AVG leagues.

Dillon Dingler (C, Detroit Tigers)

It’s time for some Dingler Dingers, Dillon! He’s old for a prospect at nearly 26, but he’s had a great season at Triple-A with a .308 AVG, 17 Homers and five SB, and the Tigers likely wouldn’t have traded away Kelly if they didn’t feel he was ready. His big breakout came from reducing his previously problematic K% from 29% to 20%, so I’d continue keeping one eye on his contact rates but take a spec in two-catcher leagues.

Deep Leagues

Alek Thomas (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks)

He’s probably my favorite sneaky play on the list, as he’s a TRUE buy-low as his stats have been cold and underwhelming, but I see the signs of Thomas evolving into an offensive force. His lousy .203 AVG with three HR and three SB in 74 PA is belied by a stronger .275 xBA and .494 xFIP. How? His HardHit% of 50% is the best of his career by far, and it looks great with his low 19% K%.  And he’ll keep playing thanks to his elite defense. The power will come, so don’t be a smart Alek and scoop him before the surface numbers turn around.

Ty France (1B, Cincinnati Reds)

Let’s not get too smart here. Average hitter goes from horrible hitters ballpark to bandbox. If it worked wonders for Jake Fraley (2023 version) it can do the same for France. A side-by-side of France’s Statcast page to Jeimer Candelario’s shows that France has actually been a fair bit better in every metric, so keep that in mind. It all comes down to how much he’ll play. Given the Reds’ injury situation (including Candelario’s), I think he’ll at least get the chance to prove himself. If he does play regularly, he could immediately be 15-team viable.

Kyle Stowers (OF, Miami Marlins)

The Orioles managers unloaded him out of cargo after stowing Kyle. And then told him to sleep (and hit) with the fishes. He has some massive power, and the Marlins can see if they can help him tamp down the K rate issues. But he could potentially provide a decent amount of the departed De La Cruz’s production if he can, making it a bat worth a spec bid or worth bidding on.

Ramón Urías (2B/3B, Baltimore Orioles)

We know he’s pretty underwhelming, but the Jordan Westburg injury, combined with the brutal Jorge Mateo injury, gives him regular reps in a good lineup for the time being, which is enough to give him AL-only value. If you prefer a little more upside with a bit less run-scoring potential, Miguel Vargas (Chicago White Sox) is a rather similar deep-league alternative.

SELL

10-team

Nolan Arenado (3B, St. Louis Cardinals)

Given his penchant for outperforming his doubters, I gave him some time before calling him a sell over a month ago to prove me wrong. He’s done the opposite, hitting a .278 xwOBA over his past 100 PA, down from an already lousy .299 in his previous 100. He seems like he’ll continue to play out the string, but at no point did his rolling xwOBA this year even touch .400. While he’s never been a Statcast darling, his 29% HardHit% is a huge drop after hitting over 38% HardHit% every year of his career. Whether he’s old or hurt doesn’t matter, he just will be way more replacement level than you realize (outside of runs produced).

Isaac Paredes (1B/3B, Chicago Cubs)

Maybe now that the Rays traded for him when he cost almost nothing and then flipped him, maybe now he will revert back into a pumpkin. I expect Paredes’s rather one-trick-pony approach to flicking flyballs over the left field wall to work less well in Chicago, which has a much deeper left-field corner. Oh, and by the way, I hope you listened to me when I called him a sell when his batting average was .290 before his average dropped about 50 points. Yeah, it seems many were oblivious to the fact he’s hit just .096/.319/.192 in 52 AB (65 PA) over the past three weeks, which granted isn’t as horrible in OBP but still quite lousy. If he doesn’t hit for power, there’s really not much aside from run production that he’s really helping you with. It still seems he’ll hit in the middle of the lineup and there will be days when he’s a big run producer, and I do think he’ll bounce back from his recent cold snap.

12-team

Josh Lowe (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)

After last year, it’s hard to imagine that his level of production would be so… poor. Lowe/Low jokes are done to death by now, and I will not participate! Sure, his batting average has been passable, with a .222 mark both this week and over the past three weeks, but the dynamic power/speed combo of last year seems to have vanished, with no homers over that three-week span and only two SBs (one CS). Yet there are still lots of people holding Lowe while the likes of Lane Thomas are on your wire and I think that’s mistaken. Heck, I think Victor Robles looks more interesting. Even after Arozarena’s departure, I don’t see him breaking out of the platoon, so he’s a fairly flawed speed-only play for this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit the IL again with an oblique or leg issue, because he still doesn’t seem quite right. Cut in all 10-team and 12-team OBP formats.

Josh Smith (2B/3B, Texas Rangers)

Statcast continues to call him baseball’s luckiest hitter, and while it seems he may be a permanent fixture on the team for now, that kind of optimism might make him more appealing in trades than earlier in the year when skepticism was higher. Sure, he could continue to outperform Statcast and all reasonable expectations like Jurickson Profar, and Hitter List disagrees with me as they rank him the 76th hitter, ahead of the likes of Chris Morel. But even Pitcher List’s directional expected stat metric gives him an xAVG of .249, with league average K% and BB% combined with a lousy 22% IPA% and 23% Hard Contact%, which both are below the 20th percentile. I’d only trust him for runs since I have doubts Jung will actually return and stay healthy.

15-team

  Jesse Winker (OF, New York Mets)

His biggest sources of value were a hitter-friendly home park, regular playing time, and a team willing to give a green light on the bases to anyone. He’s lost all three of those with his trade to the Mets, and outside the deepest OBP formats, he just won’t bring enough to the table to be worth holding from this point on, barring some unforeseen change.

Eloy Jiménez (OF/UT, Baltimore Orioles)

It’s weird and sad to say, but the former top prospect expected to be the next .300 30-40 homer hitter is practically in free fall. Since his return from yet another injury, he’s hit for no power, hitting .255 with two RBI and without a single homer for the White Sox. Now on the Orioles, a team that couldn’t find room for talented and productive hitters, it’s hard to imagine Jiménez will get more than a very small chance at playing time, and be more of a pinch hitter/matchups play.  This is starting to look like Prince Fielder minus the 50 homer year.

Deep Leagues

Angel Martínez (2B/OF, Cleveland Guardians)

His bat has turned soft and squishy as Angel Food Cake, with his xwOBA plummeting over his past 50 PA to just .218 after a .366 mark upon his arrival. With the acquisition of Lane Thomas without dealing away from their middle infielder surplus, he may soon be facing a role reduction or demotion. As a 22-year-old prospect, his future remains bright, but he needs to break the Guardians’ middle infielder curse and actually start hitting the ball with some authority. A fine target in keeper formats but I wouldn’t hold longer in redraft leagues, in spite of the currently good lineup position (unlikely to last).

Brett Wisely (SS, San Francisco Giants)

He had a little hot run earlier this summer, but it was never expected to last, and the arrival of Tyler Fitzgerald combined with the call-up of Casey Schmitt and the (admittedly defensively challenged) Marco Luciano are increasingly encroaching threats to his playing time. He hasn’t helped his case by hitting just .200/.234/.289 with no homers, three RBI and one SB over 45 AB the past three weeks. If you’re looking for a dud to drop in NL-only formats, choose Wisely.

Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)