Closing Time 4/30: Ranking the Top 30 Closers Every Tuesday

Now that we are a month into the season, we have a big enough sample size to start digging into some numbers (not all) and two guys that I think are interesting cases right now are the Diaz brothers, Edwin Diaz and Alexis Díaz. They’ve combined for 10 saves so far this year, and while the ratios aren’t terrible (and Edwin has a 39.5% strikeout rate), there are some things under the hood that give me cause for concern.

I’m not overly concerned with Edwin despite his velo being down and the stuff just not being what it was prior to his knee injury. He’s still well above average at missing bats (17.9% swinging-strike and 35.3% CSW rates) but the slider hasn’t been as sharp and the fastball is down over two MPH. There’s still time for him to get back to where he was in 2022 (or close to it) and it could be as simple as a mechanical adjustment.

Alexis on the other hand, I do worry about as he has looked more like his second-half self from 2023 than the first half of last season. His 13.7% walk-minus-strikeout rate, 4.51 xFIP, and 9% swinging-strike rate are all bottom five among active closers this season. While Stuff+ and PLV agree that Diaz has an above-average slider, they disagree on his fastball (117 Stuff+, 4.93 PLV) and I’m leaning towards the fastball being average at best.

 

Notes

 

• Jhoan Duran should be activated by the Twins today, and there is no reason to think he won’t be the closer immediately upon returning. Duran’s first rehab outing was a bit of a scare as he “only” averaged 98.1 MPH on his fastball, but he got that up to 101.8 MPH in his second and last rehab outing. If he’s healthy, he’s a top-closing option and one that could make a run at the top spot on this list eventually.
• Clay Holmes continues to just be solid as the Yankees’ top reliever, and while he only has a 23.6% strikeout rate, it comes with a minuscule 1.8% walk rate. That walk rate will be the key to his success as Holmes still lets up a good amount of hits (12 hits in 13.1 innings) so limiting free baserunners will be necessary with his approach.

 

• Craig Kimbrel left Sunday’s game with a back injury and is considered day-to-day at the moment, with no plans to place him on the IL yet. This comes after two blown saves against the A’s over the weekend as he allowed four walks and three hits while getting just one out in two games. Yennier Cano is worth the speculative add, and even if Kimbrel doesn’t land on the IL, it’s not impossible he loses his job or is scaled back some.
• Michael Kopech hasn’t pitched all that well as of late, but the stuff is definitely still there! Unfortunately, this White Sox team is such a debacle, I don’t think it matters how good his stuff is as they continue to use him in the eighth inning of games instead of letting him air it out in the ninth (see: Mason Miller). He’s still worth hanging onto in most leagues, but there’s definitely some risk here.

 

 

And if you want more daily reliever updates, please check out our Reliever Ranks series

 

Watch List

 

 

Rank	Pitcher	Change
1	Edwin DíazT1	-
2	Emmanuel Clase	-
3	Ryan Helsley	-
4	Jhoan Duran	+UR
5	Evan Phillips T2	-1
6	Josh Hader	-1
7	Raisel Iglesias	-1
8	Camilo Doval	-1
9	Mason Miller	-1
10	Jordan Romano T3	-1
11	Clay Holmes	+4
12	Tanner Scott	-2
13	David Bednar	-2
14	Robert Suarez	-1
15	Andrés Muñoz	-1
16	James McArthur	+2
17	Kirby Yates	+2
18	Craig Kimbrel	-6
19	Alexis Díaz	-3
20	Kenley Jansen	-
21	Jason Foley	-
22	Michael Kopech	-5
23	José Alvarado	-1
24	Kyle Finnegan	-
25	Carlos Estévez	-2
26	Jason Adam T4	-1
27	Kevin Ginkel	-1
28	Joel Payamps	-1
29	Héctor Neris	-
30	Justin Lawrence T5	-