Welcome back for another season and a new edition of Closing Time, ranking the closer situations throughout Major League Baseball. This year, more so than in recent history, we have almost 20 or so closers that we actually know are going to close out games or at the very least, will provide some value to your roster at the beginning of the season. If we knew right now that José Alvarado and Robert Stephenson were to open the season as their respective team’s primary closers, this would probably be the strongest group of closers I’ve seen since I started covering them in 2017.
While there are six tiers, this list really can be broken into thirds with there being three big tiers (Sure Things, Upside but Risky, Question Marks). This being the case, I think my preferred draft strategy for the season would be to grab someone from the first two tiers (preferably Tier 2) and then wait a while to grab my second (and maybe third) reliever from Tier 3 or 4. Depending on your league though, I may even consider taking two from that second tier if you don’t want to worry about speculating on closers at the end of the draft and then playing the waiver game to make up saves.
If you think a name is missing, know that anyone whom I project to earn the bulk of the holds for their respective teams can be found in the Holds rankings article, as well as on the SV+HOLDS list. Also, anyone who is competing for a rotation spot or expected to open the season on the injury list was left off for the time being.
Notes
Tier 1
1. Edwin Diaz (NYM) – Diaz missed all of 2023 with the unfortunate knee injury he suffered in the WBC earlier in the year but he should be fully recovered for the upcoming season. Given the injury was to his knee, not arm-related, and he’ll have had a full year to recover, I see no reason to believe he can’t return to his 2022 form where he was far and away the best closer in baseball.
PLV Projection: 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 38.7% K
2. Devin Williams (MIL) – If anyone can challenge Diaz, it would be Williams, who was one of if not the most productive closer throughout the entire 2023 season finishing with 37.7% K and 17.8% SwStr rates. Expect another dominant season from Williams in 2024.
PLV Projection: 2.95 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 33.5% K
Tier 2
3. Pete Fairbanks (TB) – Fairbanks finished the year Top 10 amongst relievers in xwOBA (.252), pCRA (2.45), speX (86.93), K% (37%), CSW (36%) and secured 20 of the Rays 24 saves from June 15th on (no other reliever had more than one). Take advantage of any Rays bullpen stigma in drafts as the only thing that will hold Fairbanks back from finishing as a Top 5 closer will be his ability (or lack thereof) to stay healthy.
PLV Projection: 3.11 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 30.4% K
4. Jhoan Duran (MIN) – Duran may have the best stuff in the league, and he could be even better in 2024 (some middle ground between 2022 and 2023). Duran held an 18.2% SwStr rate (11th best in baseball) and a 2.72 xFIP while closing out 27 games last year.
PLV Projection: 3.46 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 29.4% K
5. Ryan Helsley (STL) – It was a surprise to see Helsley not only dominant in September but also pitch on back-to-back days and account for all seven of the Cardinals’ saves after September 4th. Even after missing significant time, Helsley was still dominant over his 36.2 IP last year with 35.6% K and 17.5% SwStr rates (plus a 5.32 PLV).
PLV Projection: 3.29 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 31.4% K
6. Tanner Scott (MIA) – After years of teasing us with his upside, Scott finally put it all together last year by finally lowering his walk rate (to 7.8%) as he attacked the strike zone early in counts. Scott finished in the Top 10 amongst all relievers in xwOBA (.221), pCRA (2.32), xFIP (2.66), CSW% (35.8%), and PLV (5.33).
PLV Projection: 3.20 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 30.6% K
7. Emmanuel Clase (CLE) – Even after a down season by his standards (3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 21.2% K rate), Clase remains one of the safer targets in drafts. He still showed positively in Stuff+ (154) and PLV (5.38) so it shouldn’t shock anyone if he taps into more strikeout upside this year.
PLV Projection: 2.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 23.4% K
8. Josh Hader (HOU) – Hader was easily the highest-paid free agent reliever in baseball this offseason, and while that’s not exactly shocking, landing in Houston was a bit of a surprise. The strikeouts were still there last year (36.8% but just a 30% CSW rate) but he is still allowing a lot of hard contact, continues to have command issues, and his secondaries are still lagging behind his fastball. If he stays healthy, he should be productive in Houston, but I do have my concerns.
PLV Projection: 3.43 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 34.4% K
Tier 3
9. Evan Phillips (LAD) – Phillips finished the season with 24 saves and great ratios (2.05 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) and turned out to be a fantastic second closer option for most fantasy managers. The advanced metrics agree with Phillips’ success (1.51 dERA) and he also had the seventh-best PLV (5.34) in baseball. Add in the fact the Dodgers haven’t added a closer this offseason (yet) and Phillips could be a draft-day bargain again.
PLV Projection: 3.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 26.6% K
10. Raisel Iglesias (ATL) – Even with a late start to the season, Iglesias still managed to rack up 33 saves on the season. Despite his highest WHIP (1.19) since 2019, Iglesias was still able to miss bats at a good rate with 17.5% SwStr and 35.4% Chase rates. Iglesias changed up his pitch mix this season, throwing more changeups than any other pitch.
PLV Projection: 3.92 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 26.2% K
11. Paul Sewald (ARZ) – Sewald’s not your typical hard-throwing closer as he tops out around 94 mph but is still super effective living up in the zone with his gyro fastball. He finished with the second-highest PLV (5.42) and held a 3.00 pCRA and 32.1% K rate. Despite the World Series struggle, Sewald should be a safe bet for next year as a mid to low-end RP1.
PLV Projection: 3.51 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 29.7% K
12. David Bednar (PIT) – Bednar will return as the Pirates’ closer next year after falling just one save shy of reaching the 40-save mark this past year. Bednar doesn’t rank in the Top 10 amongst relievers in any categories (although close in SwStr% with 17.8% rate) but he is solid across the board and one of the safer RP options in fantasy drafts for the upcoming season.
PLV Projection: 3.67 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 28.0% K
13. Camilo Doval (SF) – Doval took a step forward from his first full season in 2022 this year as he too fell just one save short of the 40-save mark. He held impressive marks with a 2.96 pCRA, 79.86 speX, and 31% K rate and should be drafted as a Top 15 closer this year.
PLV Projection: 3.82 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 27.5% K
14. Jordan Romano (TOR) – Romano had a down season by his standards this year with career “highs” in ERA (2.90) and WHIP (1.22) but he was still effective enough to secure 36 saves again while posting an elite SwStr rate (18%). Romano remains a strong closer choice for next year.
PLV Projection: 3.65 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 28.2% K
15. Andrés Muñoz (SEA) – After the Mariners traded Paul Sewald at the deadline, Muñoz finally got his shot to be the full-time closer in Seattle racking up 11 saves over the past two months. The swing-and-miss ability is still elite (36.4% CSW) and ERA estimators are great (3.02 pCRA) but he did finish with a 1.27 WHIP last year, as his command was hit-or-miss throughout the year. He still has the potential to be the top closer in baseball, but there are plenty of question marks here.
PLV Projection: 3.99 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 29.6% K
16. Craig Kimbrel (BAL) – Despite his issues in October, Kimbrel still had a productive 2023 season and seems like a perfect fit for the Orioles. He’ll be going from one of the worst pitch framers in baseball to one of the best and also from one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks to one of the most pitcher-friendly parks. The fastball/curve combo has not lost a step as his K rate was back up to 34% last year, so as long as the Orioles don’t overuse him this season, he should be in for another great season.
PLV Projection: 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 31.5% K
Tier 4
17. José Alvarado (PHI) – Alvarado got off to a scorching start to last season before an injury slowed him down. Alvarado still finished the year with an impressive 2.52 pCRA, 2.26 xFIP, and 37.2% K rate, and since the Phillies didn’t add a significant bullpen piece this offseason, he should be considered the favorite for saves next year (although there will be competition and potentially a committee approach).
PLV Projection: 3.86 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 30.1% K
18. Robert Stephenson (LAA) – Stephenson’s career was turned around once he got to Tampa last year, with the Rays just making a simple tweak to his slider (throw it harder/make it a cutter). He finished the year first amongst relievers in Whiff (46.3%), SwStr (25%), and CSW (41%) rates, and was top three in speX (88.6), K-BB% (30.3%), and SIERA (2.40). Like with Alvarado ahead of him, if Stephenson were named the closer tomorrow he would move up at least one tier.
PLV Projection: 3.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 30.1% K
19. Kenley Jansen (BOS) – Jansen only managed 44.2 IP this past season, but the veteran is still mostly effective in a closer role and even saw an increase in velocity at age 35. I’d be fine with him as my second closer in 2024 but with the Red Sox not looking to compete this year… when and where does Jansen get moved?
PLV Projection: 3.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 26.6% K
20. Clay Holmes (NYY) – Holmes took a small step back last season but still set a career-high in saves (24) and continues to be an above-average reliever (.307 xwOBAcon, 2.88 xFIP) who relies on groundballs to get outs (70.1% GB rate). He should be the Yankees closer again in 2024 unless they make a significant move.
PLV Projection: 3.98 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 24.1% K
21. Alexis Díaz (CIN) – 2023 was a tale of two halves for Díaz which makes him a boom or bust closer target for 2024. He was one of the worst closers in baseball over the second half (5.78 xFIP, 6.5% K-BB rate) so I’d probably stay away from him unless you are getting a big discount. It may not look like he has any competition to close out games, but I wonder if the Reds turn a starter into a full-time reliever at some point (Graham Ashcraft could be Emmanuel Clase, just saying).
PLV Projection: 3.93 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 29.9% K
22. Adbert Alzolay (CHC) – Alzolay wound up taking over the Cubs’ closer role halfway through the year and never looked back, securing 22 saves and also providing fantasy managers solid ratios along the way (2.67 ERA, 1.02 WHIP). The strikeout ability isn’t exactly top-tier, but Alzolay provides some stability as a potential second closer in save-only leagues.
PLV Projection: 3.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23.7% K
23. Alex Lange (DET) – Lange can be frustrating at times with his shaky (understatement) command (15.6% BB rate) but then he reels you in with an impressive 39.1% SwStr rate due to his two plus off-speed offerings. The volatility is frustrating, but he still has the most upside of anyone in that Tigers bullpen.
PLV Projection: 4.20 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 28.1% K
24. José Leclerc (TEX) – Leclerc started the season as the team’s closer before losing his job early on to Will Smith but he eventually took the role back and was Bruce Bochy’s most trustworthy reliever last postseason. 2023 wasn’t Leclerc’s best year but he still showed an ability to limit hard contact and miss bats as shown by his 17.1% overall SwStr% rate with his slider doing most of the damage with a 49.6% Whiff rate and 22.2% ICR.
PLV Projection: 3.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 27.1% K
Tier 5
25. Robert Suarez (SD) – Suarez dealt with injuries last season and failed to reach 30 innings but he did hold solid numbers across the board, with a 4.5% DHH, 29.7% ICR, and 0.90 WHIP showcasing his ability to limit hard contact. The Padres have overhauled their bullpen this season, but Suarez remains as the highest-paid reliever and should get the first crack at saves come March.
26. Mason Miller (OAK) – It’s hard to predict what Miller’s role will be or how he will look in a relief role since he has limited experience, but what we do know is that he has plus stuff and the foundation to be a great reliever. He’s worth taking a shot on late in drafts in case he does get the chance to close out games for the A’s.
27. Hunter Harvey (WAS) – Harvey finished the 2023 season with a 3.04 SIERA and was even better in the second half where he had a 2.72 pCRA. Perhaps the most impressive number for Harvey last year was 60.2 IP, as he finally was able to stay (mostly) healthy for a season. If he doesn’t begin the season as the closer, he should take over the role at some point next year as the team’s top returning reliever.
28. John Brebbia (CWS) – Brebbia posted a solid 3.99 ERA and 1.17 WHIP last year to go with a 29.2% K rate and 5.24 PLV good for the 24th best in baseball. Now with the White Sox, there’s a very good chance Brebbia sees some save chances in a depleted bullpen, especially with Gregory Santos in Seattle now.
29. Will Smith (KC) – Smith was one of the biggest surprises over the first half of last season as he took over the closer role in Texas and was not a liability, at least until the second half started. Over the second half, Smith had a 6.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and just a 19.4% K rate over 25 innings and while he’s likely the favorite for saves to start the season for the Royals, I don’t see him closing out games for an entire season.
30. Ryan Pressly (HOU) – Pressly saw his ERA and WHIP rise this season but still finished with 31 saves and 74 strikeouts. Is the 34-year-old’s stuff diminishing at all? Well, he finished with a 5.29 PLV and 156 Stuff+ which was the highest among all relievers, so I wouldn’t write him off anytime soon. The big change for Pressly this season will be the team’s addition of Josh Hader, moving Pressly into a setup role who should also be able to pitch in 5-10 saves.
31. Yuki Matsui (SD) – Matsui was one of Japan’s best relievers last season and is expected to begin the season in a high-leverage role for the Padres. I haven’t seen a whole lot of him (there is some video here and there, he only threw one inning in last year’s WBC), so I don’t have much of a scouting report, but SIS did a pretty good job breaking down both Matsui and his new teammate Woo-suk Go.
32. Hector Neris (CHC) – Neris declined his $8.5 mil player option with the Astros and wound up getting a slight raise in his new one-year $9 mil deal with the Cubs. He is coming off a great season with a 1.75 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 15.4% SwStr rate, and 29.8% ICR although that does come with a career-high 4.45 xFIP and career-low .219 BABIP. I still lean towards Adbert Alzolay as the opening day closer here, but Neris certainly makes things interesting.
33. David Robertson (TEX) – Robertson will be 39 for most of the 2024 season and fading down the stretch for the Marlins, but his 38 saves over the past two seasons were able to get him a nice one-year, $11.5 mil deal. It’s a good landing spot as far as save/hold chances go, but I’d still have more faith in José Leclerc and Sborz long-term.
34. Carlos Estévez (LAA) – Estévez was great over the first half (1.80 ERA) but was quite terrible over the second half (6.59 ERA, 1.76 WHIP) so buyer beware this upcoming draft season. He still showed some interesting stuff, (115 Stuff+, 27.8% K rate) but I would bet against him having 30+ SV+HOLDS next year.
35. Kyle Finnegan (WAS) – Finnegan throws hard and was able to put together a solid stretch of games in the middle of the season, but there are a ton of question marks here as he allows a LOT of hard contact and only managed a 21.9% K rate. Despite tallying an impressive 28 saves last year (eight holds), I’d advise staying away from him in drafts.
Tier 6
36. Matt Brash (SEA) – Brash really put things together over the second half of his first full season as a reliever, establishing himself as one of the best setup men in baseball. Brash finished with an 86.02 speX, 2.73 pCRA, and 34.7% K rate, all Top 15 amongst all relievers. He should be locked into a set-up role behind closer Andrés Muñoz, but should also be good for some saves himself (5-10 perhaps) as Muñoz has a lengthy injury history and the Mariners have not been shy about sharing the closer role in the past.
37. Josh Sborz (TEX) – The Sborz breakout was on full display in the first half of the 2023 season, before taking a turn for the worst in the second half as he battled injuries. He finished the year with a great 35.2% CSW and looked great in the postseason for the Rangers. With the team doing nothing to upgrade their bullpen this offseason, it’s fair to wonder if, maybe even when Sborz will take over the closer role from José Leclerc this season.
38. Julian Merryweather (CHC) – The long-awaited Merryweather breakout finally happened this season as the reliever was able to stay healthy for a career-high 72 innings. The walk rate became an issue later in the year, but his ability to miss bats (32.3% K and 16.6% SwStr rates) increases his upside in holds leagues. Barring a trade for Emmanuel Clase, the Cubs bullpen seems mostly set, with Adbert Alzolay closing out games to open the year and Merryweather as his top setup man.
39. James McArthur (KC) – McArthur finished the year as the Royals closer and in fashion as well, allowing just five hits (zero runs) over his last 16.1 IP while posting a stellar 19/0 K/BB rate. There’s a pair of interesting breaking balls here, although the fastball/sinker is nothing to get too excited for (not too dissimilar from former Royal closer Scott Barlow).
40. Aroldis Chapman (PIT) – Chapman had a big bounce-back season, especially in the early part of the year with the Royals, and while the walk issues got worse in Texas, he was still mostly reliable for them. Chapman’s swing-and-miss stuff came back this year as well, finishing the season second in K% (41.4%) and CSW% (38%) but the command will be what keeps Chapman from being elite again (14.5% BB rate). Now with Pittsburgh, Chapman finds himself in a similar situation as last year with the Royals and could be on his fourth team in two years come August.
41. Kevin Ginkel (ARZ) – What a great story Ginkel was last year after he was mostly written off following an impressive debut season in 2019. Not a ton changed in his repertoire, it just looks like he’s been able to command his stuff better which led to better contact rates (2.18 dERA, 30.2% ICR). He should remain in a set-up role for now, but Paul Sewald is coming off a rough postseason and is a free agent after the season.
42. Jason Adam (TB) – Adam wasn’t able to finish the season on the active roster but should be healthy for next year and will return as Pete Fairbank’s top setup man. Adam had another impressive season, finishing with an ERA under 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.01 over 54.1 IP while also holding a 31.1% K rate and 5.19 PLV.
43. Gregory Soto (PHI) – Hoffman wasn’t the only reliever the Phils were able to unlock this past season as they also got the best out of Soto who also increased his slider usage. The change led to an increase in swing and miss (34.2% CSW rate) and better hard-hit metrics (.303 xwOBAcon, 28% ICR).
44. Yennier Cano (BAL) – After exploding onto the scene in the first two months of the season, Cano really slowed down as the season went on, having a 3.69 SIERA, 1.35 WHIP, and just an 18.5% K rate over his last 51 innings. The Orioles brought in veteran Craig Kimbrel for the year so Cano, a sinkerball with limited swing-and-miss ability, should be confined to a set-up role.
45. Jeff Hoffman (PHI) – Hoffman was the unsung hero of the Phillies bullpen in 2023, as he started throwing his slider more often (up over 24%). The change in pitch usage led to a 2.54 pCRA, 17.7% SwStr, and 33.2% K rates. He returns to a bullpen that lost Craig Kimbrel this offseason and didn’t make any significant additions, so Hoffman should at least be in the mix to be the team’s top setup option.
46. A.J. Minter (ATL) – Minter regressed from his dominant 2022 campaign but still managed a mostly successful 2023 season finishing with a 31.5% K rate and 5.22 PLV. Even with all the additions (or moreso re-signings) to the Braves’ bullpen this offseason, Minter should remain in a set-up role and could still be the first in line for saves if Raisel Iglesias were to miss time.
47. Bryan Abreu (HOU) – Abreu was one of the most dominant non-closer relievers this past season with a 1.75 ERA and a 39.8% Whiff rate while his Stuff+ graded out at 139, good for fourth highest amongst qualified relievers. He also reached double-digit holds for the first time with an impressive 24. The addition of Josh Hader shouldn’t hinder his value in holds leagues as that Astros bullpen has also lost Hector Neris, Phil Maton, Kendall Graveman, and Ryne Stanek.
48. Erik Swanson (TOR) – One of the most reliable setup men in baseball last year, Swanson finished the season with 29 holds (fourth most in MLB), continued to miss bats at a good clip (16.4% SwStr), and finished the year with an impressive .271 xwOBA. He’ll return to the Jays as the top setup option in front of closer Jordan Romano.
49. JoJo Romero (STL) – Romero was breaking out in a big way prior to missing the remainder of the season with a knee injury as the lefty finished Top 10 amongst relievers in pCRA (2.74), xFIP (2.68), xwOBA (.258), Whiff (36.3%), and CSW (36.3%) rates. His three-pitch mix makes him effective against righties as well as lefties and he should be on your radar in all holds formats.
50. Lucas Erceg (OAK) – There aren’t a ton of intriguing options in the Athletics’ bullpen (it’s really just Mason Miller) but Erceg is one of the least terrible options there and can at least throw hard. If Miller doesn’t open the year in the closer role, Erceg would likely be the favorite to do so.
| Rank | Pitcher | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edwin DíazT1 | - |
| 2 | Devin Williams | - |
| 3 | Pete FairbanksT2 | - |
| 4 | Jhoan Duran | - |
| 5 | Ryan Helsley | - |
| 6 | Tanner Scott | - |
| 7 | Emmanuel Clase | - |
| 8 | Josh Hader | - |
| 9 | Evan PhillipsT3 | - |
| 10 | Raisel Iglesias | - |
| 11 | Paul Sewald | - |
| 12 | David Bednar | - |
| 13 | Camilo Doval | - |
| 14 | Jordan Romano | - |
| 15 | Andrés Muñoz | - |
| 16 | Craig Kimbrel | - |
| 17 | José AlvaradoT4 | - |
| 18 | Robert Stephenson | - |
| 19 | Kenley Jansen | - |
| 20 | Clay Holmes | - |
| 21 | Alexis Díaz | - |
| 22 | Adbert Alzolay | - |
| 23 | Alex Lange | - |
| 24 | José Leclerc | - |
| 25 | Robert SuarezT5 | - |
| 26 | Mason Miller | - |
| 27 | Hunter Harvey | - |
| 28 | John Brebbia | - |
| 29 | Will Smith | - |
| 30 | Ryan Pressly | - |
| 31 | Yuki Matsui | - |
| 32 | Héctor Neris | - |
| 33 | David Robertson | - |
| 34 | Carlos Estévez | - |
| 35 | Kyle Finnegan | - |
| 36 | Matt BrashT6 | - |
| 37 | Josh Sborz | - |
| 38 | Julian Merryweather | - |
| 39 | James McArthur | - |
| 40 | Aroldis Chapman | - |
| 41 | Kevin Ginkel | - |
| 42 | Jason Adam | - |
| 43 | Gregory Soto | - |
| 44 | Yennier Cano | - |
| 45 | Jeff Hoffman | - |
| 46 | A.J. Minter | - |
| 47 | Bryan Abreu | - |
| 48 | Erik Swanson | - |
| 49 | JoJo Romero | - |
| 50 | Lucas Erceg | - |