Aroz Marinero
Randy Arozarena (SEA): 1-2, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, BB, 2 SB.
Like a proper arroz marinero, Randy Arozarena and the Mariners gave you a little bit of everything in one delicious game. Arozarena reached base in the 2nd and 4th innings via a hit-by-pitch and a walk, then stole second on both occasions before scoring. He popped up in the 5th inning, then came to the plate in the 7th inning with the Mariners leading the White Sox 3-2 and Julio Rodríguez on second base. The White Sox brought in Jordan Hicks to face Arozarena, and Randy took a middle-low sweeper from Hicks out to left-center field for his 5th home run of the season, the first Hicks has given up this year.
Arozarena’s production has been strong through the first third of the year, though perhaps not as you might have expected. After last night, Arozarena’s season line sits at .302/.393/.467. Both his average and on-base percentage would be career highs. His .165 ISO would be a career low, if only barely. While his full-season pace of 15 home runs would be disappointing, one or two more home runs at this point in the season would have Arozarena right on target for his usual 20 home runs. The big difference has been on the basepaths. Arozarena’s 14 steals are tied for fifth in MLB with Chandler Simpson.
With the strange shape to the start of his season, the big question is whether you should expect these changes to continue. I’m a bit pessimistic about Randy, although he’s still an excellent player, even if some of his improvements fall off as the season continues. Unlike other noted speedsters like Nasim Nuñez or the aforementioned Simpson, Arozarena isn’t particularly aggressive about taking his stolen base opportunities. Arozarena runs on 2.4% of stolen base opportunities, while the league leaders are running around 5.7% of the time or more. That means that the spike in Arozarena’s steals is coming from how often he’s on base, not a change in how much he wants to run. Since his .393 OBP rests upon a .385 BABIP, regression closer to his previous career highs in the .360 range would cut out several opportunities; even worse if he ended up with a .333 OBP like he averaged the previous two seasons. He’s also swinging the bat 2 MPH slower and hitting the ball on the ground more (6.5 degree average launch angle) this year. I’d think of him as more of a 15-homer, 30-steal player with a solid average than a .300-20-40 monster. That’s still a very good outfielder, but it might also be an opportunity to sell high if another manager fully buys the changes.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday
Ketel Marte (ARI): 3-3, 2B, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, BB.
Marte ended up a triple short of the cycle as the Diamondbacks contributed to Tyler Mahle’s tough start to the season. Marte doubled to right in the first inning and came around to score on a Geraldo Perdomo sac fly. In the third, Marte crushed a two-run homer to center field on a not-that-low and away 90.5 MPH fastball from Mahle. In the 5th, Marte loaded the bases on a bunt single to first before a groundout from Ildemaro Vargas and a double from Perdomo brought everyone home. Marte’s struggled to start the season, but the bat is waking up with a .333/.378/.606 line over the Diamondbacks’ last three series.
Juan Soto (NYM): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
Another monster game for Soto, raising his season line to .299/.392/.559. Soto just missed one in the first, flying out to right on a ball Dylan Crews caught while jumping into the wall. He didn’t miss in the third or the eighth, though. In the third, Soto turned on a middle-middle fastball from Zack Littell and sent it out to right at 111 MPH. After popping out in the sixth inning, Soto got all of a hanging curve and sent another 408-foot moonshot to right. Soto’s been crushing the ball all season, but in a slightly different way than his usual. While his batted ball profile is overall fairly similar, he’s continued his trend of elevating the ball since moving to New York, now sitting at a career-high average launch angle of 14.8 degrees. He’s also swinging more, with both chase and zone-swing rates up 7 percentage points, and making contact on 91% of pitches in the zone.
Sal Stewart (CIN): 4-5, 2B, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI.
Stewart has slowed down after his massive April, slashing just .200/.291/.314 in May leading up to this game. It turns out Phillies pitching may have been just what he needed, as Stewart went 7-13 with a double and two homers in the three-game set. Stewart got his bat on everything yesterday, with his lone out being a groundout in the 5th. He led off the 2nd inning with a double before a Nathaniel Lowe double brought him in to score. In the third, Stewart singled, then singled and scored again in the 7th. All of his batted balls were struck between 92 and 98 MPH, before he capped off his night with a monster 441-foot home run in the 9th inning that left the bat at 109.7 MPH.
Salvador Perez (KCR): 3-4, HR, R, RBI.
In the first inning, Perez yanked an up-and-in fastball from Connelly Early 109.8 MPH down the line to left for his eighth homer of the season. Early got him to hit a routine fly ball for an out in his second at-bat of the game, but Perez sizzled a 105 MPH groundball single in his next at-bat in the sixth inning. Perez singled again on a groundball to right in the sixth inning, but was stranded both times. Perez’s bat speed has slowed down this year, down from 72.9 MPH last year to 71.3 MPH so far this year. It’s showing up in a lower average exit velocity and fewer barrels. Perez is still putting up a 126 wRC+ vs lefties, but he’s down to a 48 wRC+ vs righties. Even if the Royals aren’t platooning him, fantasy managers might want to start.
Nathaniel Lowe (CIN): 2-5, 2 2B, R, 3 RBI.
The resurgence of Nathaniel Lowe continues, as he had two hard-hit doubles in this one. Lowe turned on a knuckle curve at the top of the zone from Aaron Nola in the second inning and rifled a 95 MPH grounder down the right field line, knocking in Sal Stewart. In the 7th inning, Lowe launched a 108 MPH drive off the wall in right-center field on a 98 MPH fastball from Orion Kerkering to extend the Reds’ lead. Lowe is lifting the ball more this season, with a career-high 13.1 degree average launch angle. He’s also swinging harder at 74.2 MPH, up from 72.7 MPH last year. The combination has led to an 81st percentile barrel rate and stats right in line with his expected statistics based on contact quality.
Samuel Basallo (BAL): 2-4, HR, R, RBI.
After a slower start to the season, Basallo has heated up with the weather posting a .345/.368/.582 line in May. Steven Matz got Basallo to strike out in his first two at-bats, but Basallo took advantage of his matchups against long reliever Jesse Scholtens. In the sixth inning, Basallo got a splitter just below the zone from Scholtens and golfed it 400 feet to right field for his 7th home run of the season. Basallo came up against Scholtens again in the eighth inning and hit a 91.8 MPH line drive to right for a base hit. Despite a 30-point split in his wRC+ between lefties and righties, Basallo is still above average vs same-handed pitching and is crushing righties.
Konnor Griffin (PIT): 4-5, 3 R.
Kid’s pretty good, huh? The 20-year old shortstop had four singles. Two were soft grounders which he beat out using his 98th percentile sprint speed, while the other two were smoked at 99.7 and 111.2 MPH. Griffin hasn’t started elevating yet, with his average launch angle sitting at 6.3 degrees entering last night’s game, and 4 grounders won’t make that number prettier. On the other hand, the hard-hit rate will certainly look nicer. Griffin had a tough few weeks adjusting to the majors, but is hitting .343/.392/.493 since May 1st off an unsustainably hot .440 BABIP.
Jake Burger (TEX): 2-5, HR, R, RBI.
The Rangers won this one with a 9th inning comeback, but Burger did his damage earlier in the game. Burger had mixed success overall on the night. He grounded into a double play in his first at-bat, then hit a solo home run in his second. His last three times at the plate sandwiched a groundball single between two groundouts. Every ball Burger hit on the night was hit hard; four balls left his bat between 106 and 111 MPH, and his softest hit ball of the night was 96.7 MPH. Burger isn’t the most exciting corner infield option in the league, but he’s still posting excellent exit velos and pulls the ball in the air an elite 23.6% of the time.
Trea Turner (PHI): 1-2, R, 2 BB, 2 SB.
Turner and the Phillies offense have struggled this season, ranking 24th in baseball with a 93 wRC+. While the rest of the team has improved in May, posting a 97 wRC+ good for 16th in MLB, Turner has been worse since the calendar flipped. He had an excellent game last night, however, drawing walks in the first and third innings off Andrew Abbott and hitting two balls hard (100 and 97 MPH). He caused havoc on the bases, stealing second and taking third on a throwing error in the first inning, then stealing second again after a single in the fifth inning. While he came around to score in the first on a Bryce Harper sac fly, the Phillies ultimately couldn’t take advantage of Turner’s good day, posting zero other hits in any of the three innings he reached base.
Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
