Hello deep leaguers! I skipped the offensive ranking recap last week in favor of brief trade discussion, so that’s our intro for week 21. We’re just under a month out from the all star break, so this is a good indicator of who’s been hot in the season’s second half. The top scoring teams since the ASG are the: Red Sox, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Padres and Tigers. The Nats are still at 6, but that lineup is a lot different than it was a month ago. The biggest surprise here is the Padres, who have been at the bottom of the heap for most of the year. But they’ve been a poor choice to stream against lately, so adjust your internal barometer.
Our bottom five offenses since the break are the: Marlins, Jays, Mariners, Yankees and then the Angels by wide margin in last. I can’t say I’m shocked by this list. The Yanks are clearly missing Judge and Bellinger, Seattle hasn’t scored much all year, and Miami only has hitters on rookie deals. It’s a shame my Buccos fell off the top of the list, but things are pretty bleak in the ‘Burgh these days. We’re starting to think more about Aaron Rodgers than Paul Skenes.
Fallers
Moises Ballesteros, Catcher, Los Angeles Angels
4% Rostered
It makes too much sense to see an Angel here since we just noted that they are the League’s lowest scoring team over the last month. Ballesteros has been covered here a few times already this season too. He got off to a huge start, slashing .338/.392/.620 with 5 homers in April, but fell off hard and has hit just .144 with a single homer since May 1st. However, the bar for fantasy relevant catchers is below sea level (especially in deep or two catcher leagues) and Ballesteros was traded at the deadline and figures to get some run in LAA.
It has not started off great. Ballesteros has played 7 games for his new club, and is just 4 for 26 with no XBH, runs or RBI. He has drawn one walk while striking out 7 times. His process chart is depressing and not recommended viewing for Angel fans.
Despite his struggles, Ballesteros has some encouraging underlying rates. He’s only striking out at 21.3% clip, and has a 9% walk rate, both of which are roughly average. He’s also clocked above average exit velocity, as well as hard hit and barrel rates, and he’s still only 22 years old. I have very little confidence that Ballesteros will be helpful to fantasy teams for the remainder of this year, but I am holding him in 20 teamers and 2 catcher formats. If he shows signs of life down the stretch, he could be an offseason dynasty target.
Heriberto Hernandez, Outfield, Miami Marlins
9% Rostered
Heriberto was red hot in July, slashing .267/.327/.622 with 8 homers, 14 RBI and a couple steals. But he’s cooled off in August, slashing just .148/.207/.185 with no homers and just one RBI so far this month. Hernandez has that high-powered, big bat speed, big K rate profile we see so often in DLRF, so that kind of variance is to be expected.
He still has exit velocities and barrel rates in the league’s top 25% and a hard-hit rate in the top 10%. But he also has a whiff rate in the bottom 10% and a K rate in the bottom 20% of the league. So we hope the hot streaks outnumber the slumps over the course of the season. However, Heriberto’s rolling contact ability is reaching truly scary territory. I’ll include it alongside his process chart for extra emphasis.
So, while Heriberto has displayed consistently below-average contact ability all year, he’s dipped to his lowest point of the season, well below his own average, over the last couple of weeks. This calls for a rare, third chart. What are we, 16th-century sailors?
So, it’s good to see Hernandez’s decision value has been strong throughout the season. High K rate guys are much more palatable when they draw walks in between their dingers and strikeouts. But that being said, his decision value has also recently hit its lowest level of the season. He carried a 53:23 K:BB ratio over the first half of the season, but has a 33:5 ratio over the second half. That is a big drop in BB rate.
I’m not giving up on Heriberto being helpful for the remainder of the year; he was too good over the last 3 months for that. But, the Marlins aren’t scoring, he isn’t drawing walks, he hasn’t been unlucky (.299 second-half BABIP) and my level of concern is rising. If this keeps up for another week or so, I’ll be looking for replacements.
Jared Jones, Starting Pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates.
38% Rostered.
Jones was starting to look like an Ace in July. He pitched to a 2.o0 ERA, 0.63 WHIP and a 33:6 K:BB ratio over 27 innings. But in his two starts so far in August, he’s been knocked around to the tune of a 14.14 ERA and 2.57 WHIP with a 7 Ks and 4 BBs over 7 innings.
The issue with Jones, as it has been, is his repertoire, or lack thereof. Jones relies on his four-seamer and slider for more than 80% of his pitches. He occasionally tosses a changeup or curve in there, but neither pitch has been effective and both have been mostly abandoned. This approach can be effective for a short while. His start against Atlanta on 7/8 was arguably his best outing of the season, and he only threw a single pitch, one lone changeup, that was neither his four-seamer nor slider for six innings of shutout baseball.
However, if either of his two main offerings isn’t getting the job done, he’s left with few options. And considering that his slider is his only plus pitch in terms of run value on the season, that’s been a problem. He’s thrown 152 pitches over his two August starts, and a whopping 14 of them haven’t been four-seamers or sliders.
Now, teams are hitting .417 with a .583 slugging % against his curveball this year, so I do understand why he’s left that pitch in the clubhouse recently. But hitters are clearly just sitting on his fastball and are also slugging .471 when they see it, since they know it’s coming eventually. It’s just very difficult to find any sort of sustained success as an MLB starter with only two viable pitches.
Jones has now made 35 career starts, spanning 180 innings which is basically one full season of a starting pitcher’s workload. His ERA stands at 4.43, his WHIP at 1.19. He’s coming back from a full season missed due to injury, but his ERA, FIP, WHIP, are all worse this year than his rookie campaign, and he (and the Pirates) have failed to develop a third effective offering. He’s starting to look a lot like a reliever from here. I do not recommend deploying him for his next start, which should be at the red hot Red Sox.
Risers
Henry Bolte, Outfield, Athletics
4% Rostered
Bolte is a quintessential deep leaguer right now. He’s 23 years old with elite bat speed and sprint speed. We’re talking 100th percentile sprint speed, and a 77 MPH bat speed. He doesn’t have enough at bats to qualify for the leaderboard, but an even 77 MPH would place 10th in the league, tied with James Wood. He also has a huge whiff rate and an accompanying gigantic strikeout problem.
So he’s been streaky. He batted over .280 (with 385+ BABIPS) in May and June, before slumping badly and batting just .164 (.213 BABIP) in July. He was caught stealing in 4 out of 5 attempts in July too, it was a rough month for the speedy rookie. But he’s got his BABIP back up over .400 and is slashing .333/.368/.556 with 2 long balls and a steal already in August.
The As have dealt with a ton of injuries lately, and it’s allowed Bolte to hit leadoff a few times recently, which should give him more opportunities to use his legs. However, the return of Zack Gelof might curtail his chances of maintaining that spot. I wish I could tell you his contact rate had ticked up along with his recent hot streak, but alas:
It’s a little better now than it was back at the start of July, but that’s still well below average and not a sign of anything sustainable. Bolte’s bat speed and sprint speed make him an intriguing player, but his inability to make consistent contact is going to hold him back and lead to prolonged slumps like we saw in July.
Justin Crawford, Outfield, Philadelphia Phillies
8% Rostered
Crawford recorded an OPS of .700 or lower for his first four months as big leaguer. He’s hit just two homers, both back in May, and has stolen a handful of bases, but not enough to move the needle. But he’s busting out lately, slashing .370/.419/.556 with two steals and a 3:3 K:BB ratio over ten games in August.
Crawford does not profile as any sort of power hitter. His exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates are all in the bottom 21% of the league, but he’s got elite sprint speed and a K rate under 20%, so we’re looking for good contact ability, on base percentage and steals to determine his fantasy viability.
That’s a big checkmark for contact ability. We can see Crawford dip below the league average for about a week in late June/ early July, but he’s maintained an above average contact rate for most of the year. I mentioned his great K rate already, but it’s a shame he’s walked at just a 6% clip so far. He’s already drawn 3 free passes this month in 32 plate appearances, after drawing just 2 in 59 plate appearances last month. That is a good sign, but it’s too small of a sample to get excited about.
I don’t think Crawford is anywhere near a league-winner, but he could be a nice batting average and stolen base source over the last couple of months of the season. If his recent uptick in walk rate holds, he’s going to be a great offseason target.
Cam Smith, Outfield, Houston Astros
14% Rostered
Smith is another player who has been on both sides of my ledger already this season. He’s also another bat speed and sprint speed dynamo, so he’s a player we’d love to see put it all together. Smith does have enough at-bats to qualify for leaderboards, and his 77.5 MPH bat speed is 99th percentile. His sprint speed clocks in the 93rd percentile.
Smith has given us 16 homers and 10 steals already, but he’s also batted just .226 with an OBP under .300 so far. He’s been one of the hottest hitters alive for a couple weeks though, slashing .482/.517/.852 with 3 homers over just 29 plate appearances in August. That comes with a .588 BABIP that just might not hold up. The power is real though, as Smith has a 12% barrel rate, a 45% hard hit rate and above average exit velocities.
The contact struggles are also real however, as Smith has a 29% whiff rate, a nearly 25% K rate and a sub par walk rate. In his case, some of the recent gains in contact look legitimate.
Smith has shown a significant increase in his contact rate over the last few months. Now, we can see him dropping back downward toward the MLB mean recently, following his big spike from early June to mid-July. He’s still well above where he was for the majority of the season, but it remains to be seen if he maintains any of that improved contact rate, or if he continues to trend back down to where he was earlier in the year.
We won’t know the answer for a couple of months, but his recent performance definitely gives us reason for optimism. I cover a ton of players with big power and speed who never make enough contact to make a difference. A player with Smith’s obvious upside making strides in his contact rate is exactly who we’re trying to find. I hope he keeps it up.
Thanks as always for reading, and good luck out there Deep Leaguers!
