Hello, and welcome back to the Deep. My Buccos have really stirred things up lately. They scored five runs in a game after failing to do so for nearly a month and lost anyway. They also have called up two rookie pitchers who are not Bubba Chandler. Ashcraft looks like he’ll pitch out of the bullpen, but I don’t see any path to the closer job right now, so he’s entirely unexciting in that role. Early June is a big window for call ups though, so keep your eyes peeled for anyone coming up that might get playing time. Now let’s see how my week 5 takes are holding up.
Was I talking jive back in Week 5?
Week 5 Fallers: Jeffrey Springs, Grant Holmes and José Soriano.
Back on April 30th, I said if Springs was bad against the Rangers in his next outing I was swearing him off. He went six shutout innings and recorded the win. In all Springs has a 2.05 ERA and .84 WHIP over 30 innings since he appeared as a faller, which includes games against the Dodgers and Phillies. He only has 20 Ks since then, but those ratios are pristine.
Verdict: Reports of Springs’ demise were premature.
I was concerned that Holmes wasn’t replicating his K and BB rates from last season and wanted to skip his start against the scary Dodgers. Of course, Holmes was strong against LAD and then faltered hosting the Reds. Overall though, he’s posted a 2.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP since April 30th, with 4 quality starts. I still don’t like the walk rate though.
Verdict: I did say don’t drop him. But I need to get over my fear of the Dodgers.
José Soriano has also posted a sub-3 ERA since April 30th, coming in at 2.83, but his WHIP has been an unsightly 1.60 since I wrote about him. I’d say he’s matchup dependent, but he pitched better against the Padres and Tigers than he did against the Jays, Marlins and Athletics.
Verdict: Better than expected, but I can’t trust a guy with a WHIP over 1.5 and a 30/47 K/BB ratio.
Week 5 Risers: Andrew McCutchen, Eric Wagaman, Andy Pages.
Cutch has a .247 average and .379 OBP since April 30th but has only 4 runs and 5 RBI to show for his work. The Pirates do not score many runs.
Verdict: The Pirates offense isn’t real and cant hurt (or help) you.
Eric Wagaman has a great name but has only hit .244 with a .290 OBP and .639 OPS since appearing here in week 5. I still like his underlying rates though.
Verdict: Missed so far, but there are plenty of Fish in the sea, and I won’t stop recommending them.
I was worried Andy Pages‘ low walk rate, along with his unimpressive exit velocity and hard hit rate would eventually come back around. He has recorded an OBP of just .263 and OPS of just .642 since April 30th but has also provided managers with 3 homers, 3 steals and 19 RBI over that time.
Verdict: He can’t keep getting with this! Also, team context can hide flaws. Let’s get on with it!
Fallers
Mike Yastrzemski, Outfield, San Francisco Giants – 15% Rostered
Yaz is having a solid season with a .256/.356/.411 triple slash overall, but over the last two weeks he’s batting just .211 with no homers or RBI and just 3 runs and a stolen base. In fact, Yaz hasn’t homered at all in May, having last left the yard on April 30th. His May OPS of .621 is over 250 points lower than his April OPS. It’s not bad luck either, his BABIP in May has been .316, which is higher than his mark in April.
His Process chart is a little muddy, but I want to include it because it shows that Yaz is still making consistent contact and has some pop. He still has slightly above average exit velocity and excellent on base skills. I love a walk rate of over 10%. But he has to swing the bat more. He’s been less and less aggressive as the season has progressed and has been less productive too. I think he has 20 homers in him if he gets more aggressive at the dish, but if he doesn’t, we’re probably looking at a 10-15 homer, 10 steal (he’s running more this year) guy with a .250 average. That won’t kill you, but it isn’t doing much to help either.
Ben Rice, First Base, New York Yankees – 51% Rostered
Rice has a huge disparity in his monthly splits as well. He slashed 266/.373/.585 with 8 homers and a 13/28 BB/K ratio through the end of April. Since the start of May, his line has been .212/.274/.409 with 2 homers and a 3:16 BB/K ratio. His exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates are still amazing. And by amazing I mean top 3% of all Major League hitters. The problem is not Rice’s bat, it’s his head.
We can see that his contact and power look fine, if not dang good on the Process chart, but when we isolate his decision quality, the problem is clear. He’s been swinging at all the wrong pitches since the start of May. I don’t like seeing the walk rate drop either, and he’s been on the bench for four of the Yankees’ last 10 games.
The loss of playing time is the scariest bit for fantasy managers. A good sign is that he is still slotting in the top third of the lineup when he is playing and I don’t see anyone on the Yankee roster who like likely to totally usurp his position as the primary DH. I am going to go out on a bit of a limb and suggest being aggressive. See you if you can snag Rice at a discount if you can. His quality of contact is just too good to give up on.
Daniel Zebulon Mathews, Starting Pitcher, Minnesota Twins – 17% Rostered.
I almost hate doing this with rookie pitchers, but Zebby’s first couple of MLB outings of 2025 haven’t been great. He’s allowed six runs over his first seven innings, lasting four innings at Milwaukee, and then just three hosting the Royals. He’s allowed 10 hits and walked four batters over those seven innings, but he’s also struck out 14. He’s recorded 21 outs, 14 by K.
So, Zebby currently sports a 40% strikeout rate and he’s got a 33.3 chase rate and 26% whiff rate to prop it up. He’s hitting 96.6 MPH with his heater on average and mixing in his slider and cutter enough to legitimately have a three pitch mix. He’s gotten some rotten batted-ball luck with a .625 BABIP against him so far.
I think what bothers me most about his profile is that almost everything he’s throwing is elevated. His cutter and four-seamer account for over 70% of the pitches he’s thrown and both consistently live in the upper half of the zone, while his slider generally lives outside of it. So far, 70% of the balls put in play against him have been hit in the air, with less than 30% being grounders. This is the opposite of what we like to see.
Still, you can’t ignore those strikeouts. And Daniel Zebulon had a 1.93 ERA in AAA before his promotion, and his MLB FIP is currently just .78, because 14 Ks in 7 innings is nuts. He’s got Seattle next on the 30th and I’d be all over that one if I could.
Risers
Landen Roupp, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants – 17% Rostered
Roupp has been fantastic since the calendar flipped to May. After posting a 5.10 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over 35 innings in April, he’s rebounded to the tune of a 1.64 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 22 May innings. Roupp was stung by an unlucky .383 BABIP in April but has enjoyed a bit of luck with a .250 mark this month. He’s also helped himself by drastically reducing his walk rate, from 14 in 35 innings to just 4 in 22.
Those weren’t cupcake games either. Roupp faced the Cubs, Twins, A’s and Nats over that time and only the Twins offense sat in the bottom half of the league in runs scored. Roupp is doing a great job keeping the ball on the ground with a 48% ground ball rate and inducing soft contact with a hard hit rate in the league’s top 10% and an exit velocity allowed of just 87.2 MPH.
I would like to see more Ks as he has only 14 over 22 innings this month, but he’s had success using his sinker to get ground ball outs and I think he can continue to do so. That being said, I’m a coward and would likely refrain from rolling him out against the Tigers this afternoon. But if he clears that hurdle, he’s one step closer to entering the circle of trust.
Kody Clemens, First, Second and Third Base, Minnesota Twins – 5% Rostered
Clemens is on an absolute tear, batting .409 with 3 dingers and 9 RBI over the past fortnight and that is despite only playing every other day for the more recent of those two weeks. Overall, Clemens has a .291/.381/.636 triple slash with 4 homers on the year. His average exit velocity is 97 MPH, his barrel rate is over 15% and his hard rate is over 60%. If he had enough at-bats to qualify, all of those would rank in the league’s top 10%.
He also has a nearly 25% whiff rate and a 26.6% strikeout rate and has just 64 plate appearances this season. The real question is playing time. Clemens’ OPS vs lefties is almost 300 points lower than his OPS vs righties and he’s only drawn 7 plate appearances against southpaws this year. The Twins also recently activated Carlos Correa off of the IL, and that infield is crowded.
But, as I mentioned earlier, the Twins don’t have a great offense. They are currently 22nd in the league in runs scored and can’t afford to ignore a player with an OPS over 1.000 vs right handed pitching. I think Clemens is worth a speculative add. The eligibility is a big plus and like I said in regards to Drake Baldwin last week, you have to trust talent to find playing time.
Connor Norby, Second and Third Base, Miami Marlins – 18% Rostered
There really are a lot of Fish in the Deep League sea. Norby began the season on the IL, so he has only 126 plate appearances on the year, but he’s been productive, with a .294//333/.454 line on the year, and a .356 average with two homers and 10 RBI over the last two weeks.
Norby has a nice barrel rate of over 10%, but with an 88.7 MPH exit velocity and a 42% hard-hit rate, his underlying metrics are a bit underwhelming. His 37% chase rate, 30% whiff rate and 28% strike-out rate are all in the league’s bottom 15% and legitimately concerning. However, he did have a late start to the season and his process chart is trending in the right direction.
The poor contact rates are evident, but trending upwards, while his decision value and power have mostly held above the mean and are also trending upwards. Norby now has 10 homers and 7 steals in 69 games since being traded to the Marlins last year. Stowers has been even better, and I can almost understand why the Orioles have been so reluctant to trade their position prospects for pitching. If you are looking for help at the hot corner or the keystone, and Norby is available, you have your answer.
Thanks as always for reading, and good luck out there Deep Leaguers.
