DFS Plays of the Day – 4/29/23

Your plays for OwnersBox/DraftKings/FanDuel for Sat Apr 29

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Slate Details

Slates are different depending on the site – check the table under Pitching to see which game is on which slate and website.

BAL@DET & PIT@WAS have doubleheaders today.

OwnersBox- Early slate (8 games, none of the DH games, inc. Mexico City SF/SD) – starts 2:09 PM EDT; Main slate (5 games) – starts 7:04 PM EDT.

DraftKings – Early slate (8 games inc. first games of DHs) – starts 12:10 PM EDT; Afternoon slate (4 games) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Turbo (4 games, inc. Mexico City SF/SD & second games of DHs) – starts 5:10 PM EDT; Main slate (5 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT.

FanDuel – Very Early Only slate (4 games inc. first games of DHs) – starts 12:10 PM EDT; Early Only slate (6 games, including Mex City SF/SD) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Main slate (5 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT.

Weather Impact

SF/SD is at Mexico City (think Coors with a Red Bull – it will be shocking if both teams don’t have 10+ runs by the end). If you don’t want that level of volatility, target a slate without that game.  We have ARI@COL which will also be poppin’. If that’s not enough for you, we also have rain again for KC@MIN & CLE@BOS.


Risk-averse DFS players…you’ve been warned.

Weather status updates will be posted in our Discord in #dfs-and-bets channel.


PLV Pitching Apr 29 23

T2 = DraftKings 2nd Turbo slate of the day (5:10 PM ET)

Spencer Strider (OB: Early; DK: Early/Afternoon; FD: Early Only) – ATL@NYM PPD
Hunter Greene (OB: Early; DK: Early/Afternoon; FD: Early Only)
Kevin Gausman (OB: Early; DK: Early; FD: Very Early)
Zack Wheeler (OB: Early; DK: Turbo; FD: Early Only)
Clayton Kershaw (Main)

Dean Kremer (OB: N/A; DK: Early; FD: Very Early)
Eduardo Rodriguez (OB: N/A; DK: Early; FD: Very Early)
Grayson Rodriguez (DK: Turbo only)
Vince Velasquez (DK: Turbo only)
Nathan Eovaldi (Main)
Corbin Burnes (Main)

Risks w/ value upside:
Reid Detmers (Main)
Jordan Montgomery (Main)

The SP1 starts need no explanation- fit them for whichever slate you play and the salary you have available.

Dean KremerEduardo Rodriguez have the most pitcher-friendly matchup of the day, with winds across Comerica Park. It could be an ugly game on both sides.

Grayson Rodriguez gets the Tigers for round two, and although the temps are a little warmer than the early game, the winds are still pitcher friendly – if he’s going to have his statement game, this is it. Second games of doubleheaders are typically low scoring as well.

Vince Velasquez gets the second game vs the Nats – again, the second game typically ends up lower scoring, and contrary to the BAL/DET games, the wind shifts from out for the first game to in for the second, so Velasquez actually gets a safer spot than Hill.

Nathan Eovaldi isn’t wowing anybody this season, but he’s only given up one HR in five starts, and averages about six Ks/game. He’s also been averaging about two ERs/game, but the Yankees are without Judge and having to use “warm bodies” to fill the back half of their lineup. Meanwhile, the Rangers get to have fun with Jhony Brito so there is a good chance of a win to go along with not as much risk as he would normally have to deal with.

Corbin Burnes still feels like a guy that you pay for his name rather than what he really gives you, but the Angels have come back down to Earth since their series with the A’s in their home park. It’s not a sure thing that MIL bats give him the win vs Reid Detmers, but he should pitch deep into this one as he gives them the best chance at winning while he’s in there.

MIL only has a couple of bats to really concern Reid Detmers, so if he can avoid giving up singles & walks (and a possible HR to William Contreras) he should be fine.

The Dodgers are getting some of their weapons back, so this is a risky spot – especially with Kershaw on the other side – but the Dodgers still struggle with lefties that can limit their power lefties, and Jordan Montgomery can do that based on his PLV rating. Even better, if the Dodgers start Trayce Thompson, that’s almost a bonus of one or two Ks from his presence alone.

Pitcher Pricing Apr 29 23


If you’re playing a slate with the Mexico City game – Early on OwnersBox, Turbo on DraftKings, and/or Early Only on FanDuel – stack that game first then fill in other spots if you need value or want to get a little different. PLV suggests Sean Manaea is the pitcher to target, so we have to trust the Padres in this spot. The stack I trust most is likely in the middle of the order – Xander BogaertsNelson Cruz, and Jake Cronenworth.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is the most expensive bat on all sites, and Manny Machado will likely also be popular, although Machado has not been good vs lefties lately (but the altitude in Mexico probably makes up for it). It feels like you get the most bang for your buck with Bogaerts/Cruz/Cronenworth, especially if they hit four-five-six in the lineup. José Azocar is a nice pairing with Tatis if you want him – he offsets his price and offers stolen base upside along with a low K rate and solid LD & hard contact hit rates.

On the SF side, there are three solid hitters with barrel rates and non-GB rates that can pop in Mexico City – as long as they don’t strike out. Mike YastrzemskiLaMonte Wade Jr., & Blake Sabol are all capable of hitting bombs, but they all also have ~33% CSW rates lately vs righties. Ideally, I think a 4-2 or 3-2 stack of Padres-Giants is ideal if you can fit them, and these average-priced bats are probably the best way of achieving it without selling out too much.

If you’re playing the main slate, you don’t have to worry about Mexico City and just have to deal with Coors instead. Friday disappointed a bit until late when the D-backs rolled off a chain of hits. On Saturday, temps are a little warmer resulting in more hits & runs. It’s a small sample size for both pitchers, but they are both weaker vs lefties and don’t miss many bats.

C.J. Cron seems to have figured out the issues he had early in the season and now has an 80%+ hard contact rate vs lefties. Mike Moustakas was surprisingly not in the lineup on Friday, but hits lefties well – he’s a great value if he is in the lineup Saturday. Kris Bryant will be popular, but I think Cron is a higher priority and I don’t trust a Rockies stack as much as the D-backs.

Corbin Carroll is the chalky preferred ARI bat and with good reason. Ketel Marte likely ends up popular again too since 2B doesn’t have many quality options. I also like Alek Thomas for value even if he gets swapped out later vs a lefty. Noah Davis has been deceptively steady thus far through two starts, but PLV suggests he’s had more hit luck than skill vs lefties – this trio are all hard hitters and Geraldo Perdomo is also a quality play at SS if he ends up around the others in the lineup.

As mentioned in the pitchers’ section, the first game between PIT & WAS has a decent wind blowing out – and Patrick Corbin. PIT is a hot team overall right now, and the hot bats vs lefties are Rodolfo CastroConnor Joe, and Andrew McCutchen. I’m not a firm believer in Rich Hill in this spot either – Jeimer CandelarioLane Thomas will likely be at the top of the order and could put some quality hits on him with the wind.

If you’re playing a slate with the second PIT@WAS game (Turbo on DK), there is a solid chance for Tucupita Marcano to be in the lineup due to the DH – he’s cheap and great for both hitting and stealing bases. Jack Suwinski would also be a must-have for this game.

Another spot to attack on the Early slates is CLE@BOS. Both pitchers are exploitable, and there are a number of lefties that could feast in Fenway. Josh NaylorJosé Ramírez should do well vs Brayan Bello, and the two hottest lefties for BOS are Jarren DuranMasataka Yoshida. Obviously, if you have the salary to spare, Rafael Devers should also be considered at home.

There is a lot of risk with ATL@NYM, but they seem committed to playing however much of this series they can fit in due to scheduling concerns. If it plays, you can target Tylor Megill – but unless it sounds like there is a safe three-hour window with no storms, it’s probably best to stick to cheaper ATL bats like Sam Hilliard or Michael Harris II. If it looks like they can fit in a full game, Ronald Acuña Jr.Matt Olson are worth paying up for.  UPDATE: ATL@NYM PPD

One game with stacking potential for the Early slates is CHC@MIA. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is doing it all for MIA, with multiple stolen bases in back-to-back games, and six hits in his last four games. A deep discount bat for MIA that you can trust for value is Jesús Sánchez. Edward Cabrera is still having issues with righties, so look for power righties like Patrick WisdomNelson Velázquez or Yan Gomes if they end up in the lineup.

The Twins are starting to get healthy, and maybe that’s finally helping them live up to their potential on the field. The Twins are generally a team I’m scared to stack, but Brad Keller may be worthy of it. Max Kepler continues to be surprisingly cheap given his leadoff bat. It took Jose Miranda almost a month, but he’s finally hitting HRs, with three in his last three games. Joey Gallo is currently on a five-game hit streak, and Jorge Polanco has been on a heater his first week back to action, totaling almost a dozen hits.

If you were bold enough to stomach the CIN-OAK stack I posted yesterday, you’re probably counting your money today. Hunter Greene should keep this one mostly one-sided, but CIN should still enjoy the A’s hospitality, and their value bats are well worth consideration. Nick Senzel has multiple hits in his last three games, going back to the last series vs TEX. Henry RamosStuart Fairchild are also great one-offs or part of a stack, depending on how the lineup shapes up.

Other one-offs…

Batter Pricing Apr 29 23


Justin Wainwright

Originally from the Midwest, but moved to Colorado almost 10 years ago for the sun & Red Rocks. My lifelong aspiration is to either build the perfect analytical simulation tool for MLB players & games or be the head writer for a hit TV show that changes the medium for the next generation. Unofficial president of the Bartolo Colon & Danny Trejo Fan Clubs

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