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OwnersBox- Main slate (7 games) – starts 7:19 PM EDT
DK/FD – Main slate (7 games) – starts 7:20 PM EDT
No rain expected to impact the slate; MIA goes to Coors.
Basically, there are two top arms for this slate – Cristian Javier & likely-to-be-chalky Luis Castillo. The difference between the two is that Javier seems to be trending up with higher K rates, and Castillo has been up and down in many of his starts this year…but if any team is good for making you feel better about yourself, it’s the As. Both parks happen to be the safer spots of the slate, so if you need an SP2, you can easily use them both and move on. But there are worthy pivots if you want to get different…
Charlie Morton is in the risk-it-for-the-biscuit spot of the night – K rates are great on both sides. and if he can keep his pitch count under control he has the chance to be a great GPP play. There’s also the chance ATL blows Stone up early and often, which might cause the Dodgers to check out of this game early after a hard-fought series with STL.
Bailey Ober is a heavy favorite of PLV and seems to be a guy who’ll get you a steady 6 Ks and possibly 1 ER. That’s acceptable from an average-priced arm on this slate if you want to load up on Coors, Braves, and a mini stack of Mariners vs OAK for the nightcap.
In that same category is Michael Lorenzen who gets the Royals, which just got swept by the White Sox and gave career games to Michael Wacha & Michael Kopech in the past week. Start all your Michaels vs the Royals and profit.
No surprise, but Coors is the best hitting spot by far for this slate and Chase Anderson is the one we’re targeting. He’s had quite the journey already this season, going from the Reds to the Rays and now to the Rockies. Maybe he’s trying to sign with every team starting with R this year? Anyway…he’s been surprisingly efficient thus far only giving up 3 hits in 3 appearances but he’s due for regression based on his past experience.
The popular Marlin bat – for good reason – will be Jorge Soler, but there’s a similar case to be made for Bryan De La Cruz as well now that he’s got his strikeouts under control. Luis Arraez and his top MLB batting average will also be popular, but one underrated play is Xavier Edwards who has had two multi-hit games in his last three.
Edward Cabrera has calmed down a bit in his more recent starts, but it remains to be seen if he throws a full session today after leaving early with a blister in his last start. He’s still susceptible to LD barrel hits by Ls, and three Rockies with those hit tendencies are Harold Castro, Michael Toglia, & Jurickson Profar. Also, keep an eye out for Brenton Doyle if he is in the lineup, as he’s been racking up XBH at home in recent series.
Gavin Stone had a rough first appearance vs PHI 3 weeks back, giving up 5 runs (4 ER) off 8 hits in 4 IP. It’s a small sample size, but there’s no reason not to trust the hot ATL bats to stay hot in this matchup. Matt Olson has flipped the switch and is racking up XBH – 5 in his last 3 games – making him a perfect play in all formats. There’s little reason not to trust Ronald Acuña Jr. and his 11-game hit streak either, other than maybe his price tag – but there should be enough upside value plays on this slate to fit a mini ATL stack plus Coors. Marcell Ozuna is one ATL bat that continues to exceed value at his price.
Continuing with value plays, we have a couple of options on DET vs Brady Singer. Akil Baddoo & Nick Maton should both do well with their hard-hit rates and recent production. Zach McKinstry continues to score in multiple ways from the lead-off spot too.
There are still plenty of reasons to target Kyle Muller and the As – namely, the fact that he has 5 or more ER in his last 3 starts. Tom Murphy likely gets the start again at C with Cal Raleigh dealing with neck spasms, but either is a solid play at catcher. Jose Caballero is a punt-priced play that loves to steal anytime he gets a chance, and Ty France has been sharp vs L lately.
Given the popularity of MIA/COL/ATL, a lot of salary will already be devoted to those plays, but one off-the-radar contrarian tournament stack would be the Astros vs Corbin Burnes. The reason why he wasn’t featured under the pitcher plays is because even though he has strong K upside and has been better vs Ls lately, he still has a tendency to give up hard hits to Rs, with HRs to the likes of Paul DeJong & J.D. Davis in recent starts. The Astros still have a mostly righty lineup, and many of them hard-hit Rs and strike out at a lower rate, such as Jake Meyers, Jeremy Peña, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman.
- Joey Gallo and Alex Kirilloff continue to be hot bats for MIN.
- Tanner Houck is vulnerable to L barrel hits, and that’s Shohei Ohtani’s specialty.
- If you’re fading Luis Castillo and looking to possibly profit from his misfortune, Ryan Noda is an upside play.