Slate Details
FanDuel/DraftKings – Main slate (14 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT
Pitching
The obvious plays are George Kirby (vs. Miami) and Hunter Brown (vs. Washington) just based on matchups. Sometimes the obvious play is a trap, but not today. Kirby has had some missteps lately against Pittsburgh and San Diego but has otherwise been excellent this season. Miami is bottom five in runs. Washington isn’t quite as bad but also struggles to score. The biggest concern with Brown is efficiency as he hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in five of his 12 starts this season.
Traditional aces Max Scherzer (vs. N.Y. Yankees), Corbin Burnes (at Minnesota), and Zack Wheeler (at Arizona) also are on deck. The Yankees are more bark than bite without Aaron Judge in the lineup. Scherzer hasn’t always been the most impressive at times this season as he’s worked around injuries, but a 38:4 K:BB ratio shows he hasn’t lost a step. Burnes has mostly righted the ship after a tough start to the season. While it’s still not vintage Burnes, we’re starting to move in that direction. Over his last 32 innings pitching, Burnes has a 3.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts. Wheeler is still one of my favorite buy-low pitchers. He has dealt with his fair share of bad luck which will turn eventually. Wheeler has a 3.91 ERA but nearly every ERA estimator disagrees with a 2.74 FIP and 3.26 xERA.
Hitting
Lance Lynn continues to be a complete mess for the Chicago White Sox and has seen his ERA balloon to 6.72 this season. Freddie Freeman is my favorite batter on the day. He has nine hits in his past six games, including three home runs. Mookie Betts is on a six-game hit and run-scoring streak, J.D. Martinez already has four home runs in June, and David Peralta has hits in 10 of his past 12 games and is 6-for-16 vs. Lynn in his career.
Luis Severino has been playing a bit too much Home Run Derby lately with six home runs allowed in his past two starts. The Mets are handicapped with Pete Alonso on the IL but can still mash it with guys like Francisco Álvarez, who has gone deep four times in his past six games. Tommy Pham’s three home runs in June have doubled his total on the season and he seems to be looking for another with extra-base hits in four straight games. Brandon Nimmo isn’t much for power, but he’s 3-for-5 with two walks in his career vs. Severino.
Isaac Paredes has a .907 OPS vs. lefties this season (.794 vs. righties) and gets struggling Oakland rookie Hogan Harris on the bump tonight. A lefty means we can also expect to see Harold Ramírez back in the lineup (1.182 OPS split), who is slashing .440/.481/.680 in June. Randy Arozarena isn’t quite as drastic with his splits but also hits better against southpaws.
At this point, I’m trying to get Corey Seager into my lineup whenever possible. He has a 1.006 OPS, six home runs, and 30 RBI over the past month alone. Jaime Barría has pitched well since taking over a starting role for the Angels, but he does not go deep into games and hasn’t faced a team like the Rangers yet. Josh Jung continues to swing a hot bat for Texas, too.
Nolan Arenado is off on a tear in June, slashing a ridiculous .378/.439/.811 with four home runs and a 3:3 K:BB ratio. Don’t be fooled by Alex Cobb’s 3.01 ERA this season. He’s unraveled lately with a 5.33 ERA in his past five starts. Meanwhile, more than just Arenado is heating up for the Cardinals. Paul Goldschmidt hit a blast off Logan Webb last night, and Jordan Walker is on a six-game hitting streak with two home runs in his triumphant return to the big leagues.
Jameson Taillon has allowed four earned runs or more in five of his past six starts and his ERA is up to 7.02 on the season. Jack Suwinski has 13 home runs this year. He often hits them in bunches and has two in his past three games. Ke’Bryan Hayes is finally seeing his bad luck break the other way. He has hits in nine of his past 10 games and is slashing .486/.486/.784 with two homers in June. Ji Hwan Bae doesn’t offer power but continues to provide value by stealing bases and scoring runs.
It’s been nice to see José Abreu get back on track with home runs in back-t0-back games over the weekend and multiple hits in three straight. He’s a career .293/.365/.520 hitter vs. lefties and gets the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin who has been a hit-and-walk machine recently. Kyle Tucker is hitting .329 against lefties and .239 vs. righties this season. Mauricio Dubón also is far superior against lefties, slashing .410/.452/.513 this season.
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