Slate Details
DraftKings/FanDuel – Main slate (7 games) – starts 7:10 PM EDT.
Weather Impact
Wind blowing out to right-center for CHW@LAD.
Light wind blowing out to left for COL@ATL and some rain is possible.
Strong wind blowing in for DET@MIN.
Wind blowing straight into home plate for PIT@CHC.
Pitching
Sonny Gray has had Detroit’s number for multiple starts and should keep it up here. Sure the Tigers got to Strider yesterday, but they were at home with the wind blowing out. Now the Twins are hosting with a healthy wind blowing in – even though Sonny G is starting to transition to a FB pitcher lately, the inbound wind should negate that, making him a relatively safe start.
Marcus Stroman should be a solid SP1B/SP2 for this slate with a healthy wind blowing straight in at Wrigley. Sonny probably has the edge in Ks, but Stroman might go deeper into this game, as his strong GB contact to both sides should wear down PIT and keep his pitch count down. Starting your lineup with Gray+Stroman on DK gives you considerable savings for bats and should give leverage off the top-three pitchers on the slate for tournaments.
Given the opponent (COL), AJ Smith-Shawver could see some ownership at his price, but he lucked out a bit in his last start with the runs not being earned, and the small sample size has his PLV numbers low vs both sides of the plate. He’s going to get run support from the ATL bats making a win possible, but COL did just take two out of three vs the Red Sox in Boston, scoring at least three runs in each of those games. His trouble spot appears to be a FB profile vs Ls with a low K rate, and with the wind blowing out to left, there’s not a safe floor for him. The best case for using him would be to play two or more expensive bat stacks from ATL, TEX, SD, and/or LAD.
As for the big guns on the slate – Nathan Eovaldi, Shohei Ohtani, & Cristian Javier – Eovaldi & Javier’s K rates are both down. They should get enough run support to have decent starts – and probably the win – but they might not hit value as well as Gray+Stroman. At higher rostership, they’re fine for cash, but for tournaments, the strategy above may be better.
Time for a hot take for Shohei Ohtani – TEX is a tough matchup, and Ohtani’s stats are trending down. The K rate is down and the hard contact rate is up vs Rs, and he has a high FB rate plus barrel rate allowed to Ls. Due to rain in the area, the roof likely remains closed – which may help limit the volatility a bit – but with TEX at home, this feels like a fade of Ohtani and a stack of under-rostered TEX bats vs Ohtani in large field tournaments.
Batting
The top-three hitting environments in order for this slate are CWS@LAD, COL@ATL, and WAS@HOU.
MacKenzie Gore has had a rough couple of starts recently vs ATL & PHI. HOU likely isn’t going to go much better for him. The Astros are going R-heavy with the absence of Yordan Alvarez, and Gore is heading in the wrong direction in all the following categories vs Rs – FB contact, barrel rate, hard contact rate, and PLV rating. Versus Ls he’s also giving up solid line drive contact and his PLV rating is on the decline there as well. Given recent hit profiles and performance, you can build around any of the following – José Abreu, Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz, & Kyle Tucker. Mauricio Dubón & Jeremy Peña (rumored to possibly return from an illness) are fine as part of stacks as well depending on how the lineup shapes up.
For ATL vs Kyle Freeland, there are three ATL bats that are recently popping vs Ls – Ronald Acuña Jr., Kevin Pillar, & Marcell Ozuna. Given that all three of these players are OFs on DK, stacking them with an IF stack of HOU players is a strong core tournament lineup for this slate.
If you think AJ Smith-Shawver struggles a bit with the wind and park, Nolan Jones & Ryan McMahon are Ls that could give him trouble, but given their prices and positions, they should be large field rostership leverage tournament plays only.
Like last night, CWS@LAD has some back-and-forth potential between both teams. Since Michael Grove’s recent call-up, he’s had two volatile starts vs PHI & NYY. Luis Robert Jr. & Andrew Vaughn are likely the biggest threats, as they hit mainly with non-GB contact and strike out less than average. Jake Burger is also a possible threat after two HRs in Dodger Stadium last night, but he tends to strike out vs R, so he’s probably a better candidate for tournament stacks.
Dylan Cease has been better in his last two starts, but there are some signs of possible regression. Versus Rs, his GB rate is starting to decline and allow for more line drive and hard contact. These traits line up well for Mookie Betts and Miguel Rojas. Against Ls, he’s been more steady with mostly GB contact, but David Peralta has been hitting well with non-GB contact and is still bargain-priced.
MIN isn’t a great hitting environment on this slate, but the Twins offer some value bats vs Matthew Boyd if you need them. Michael A. Taylor is red hot vs Ls lately, and Donovan Solano is minimum-priced on DK and might be batting first in the lineup. Royce Lewis is an option as well, but probably only as a SS option on FD as there are far better 3B candidates on DK for this slate.
Are the Padres starting to get hot? They’ve won five out of six and they’ve been better vs Ls than Rs over the past couple of weeks. Logan Allen rolls into town looking very vulnerable in his last two starts. Fernando Tatis Jr. has a perfect hit profile vs Allen’s recent allowances to Rs and Gary Sánchez continues to try and show that the Padres are the opportunity he’s been looking for all season. Manny Machado may finally be getting over his issues with his hand as well.
Ryan Weathers is expected to start in place of Yu Darvish, and other than his last start (in Coors of all places) they have been explosive. Last week, José Ramírez had two of his three HRs vs a below-average lefty.
Lastly, there’s the TEX stack that was referenced above vs Ohtani. Leody Taveras has six hits in his last three games in this series with LAA, and Corey Seager is one of the hottest bats in the league right now. Marcus Semien would be the logical choice to complete the stack, likely to be positioned between Taveras & Seager, and hit a HR last night vs a righty.