DFS Plays of the Day – 6/19/23

Optimal DFS plays for DK/FD for Mon Jun 19

Slate Details

DraftKings/FanDuel – Main slate (7 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT.

Weather Impact

Swirling winds and rain possible for COL@CIN (still very HR-friendly).

Winds blowing out slightly to right for TEX@CWS (2nd most HR-friendly spot).

Strong winds blowing out to right-center for SD@SF (park likely to suppress HRs, but XBH & hits should be plentiful).

Winds blowing in slightly for CHC@PIT & BOS@MIN but can yield XBH.


PLV Pitching Jun 19 23

The top SP1 in all formats is James Paxton. The Twins are just plain bad right now and aren’t showing much power from either side. Odds are they likely put 3 batters in the lineup averaging over 40% K vs Ls in the past two weeks.

The “safe” SP2 is most likely Pablo López. PLV loves his pitching on both sides and K rates are trending up for both L/R as well. BOS just played a doubleheader vs NYY yesterday and then had to travel to MIN afterward. The Red Sox also tend to play worse on the road, averaging about 3 runs per game (given the way the Twins are playing, that may be enough to win).

If you’re looking for an SP2 pivot with upside, Merrill Kelly had one of the strangest outings vs MIL back in April. He had 6 IP with only 1 hit (a HR to Willy Adames), but he had 4 walks and the reliever proceeded to allow two of those to score, giving him 3 ER with his 7 Ks. Walks can still be a problem for Kelly – he has given up at least 2 in every start in the past month – but these Brewers don’t walk at a high rate over the past two weeks vs R pitchers. He’s priced up – which will make him a less attractive option on this slate – but if the chalk busts, he’ll provide you decent leverage (as long as the walks don’t get out of control).

Speaking of chalk (other than Paxton) – there’s a discounted Max Scherzer and Corbin Burnes vs the D-backs. Scherzer’s price relative to his legacy is going to draw a lot of people in, but although HOU hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard lately, they also haven’t been striking out much. The roof should remain closed again due to storms in the area, but Scherzer’s had some issues with hard contact from Rs lately and Rs will be the majority of HOU’s lineup. If he’s going to be popular with little K upside, he’s not a play you want for tournaments. For cash he’s fine – but for about the same price you can get Lopez with more upside.

As for Burnes, he handled the D-backs in that same game with Kelly back in April, but the D-backs are a better team now – Christian Walker is averaging 2 hits/game in his last 3 games (with a HR in 2/3) and is the type of R bat that has caused Burnes issues this season. Vs. Ls, he has a weakness for LD contact, and ARI has 3 lefties that fit that profile – Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, & Jake McCarthy – and they all strike out at a lower rate than average. Given that Burnes is the most expensive P on FD and 2nd on DK, this feels a little risky and unlikely to be a ceiling game for him.

Michael Wacha is another pitcher that may get ownership due to price and recent starts.  SF is a really hot team right now – even with injuries – winners of 7 straight and scoring over 10 runs in 3 of those games. With a strong wind blowing out and the Giants at home, this could be a trap spot for a FB pitcher like Wacha.

Pitcher Pricing Jun 19 23


Assuming COL@CIN is not a PPD risk, GABP with a little rain is a hitter’s paradise. The Reds are red hot – winners of 8 straight – and only trailing the Brewers by a half-game now in the NL Central. The Rockies just got humbled by the Braves giving up at least 8 runs per game (and 12 HRs!) in that four-game series. Both Austin GomberBrandon Williamson give up barrels and hard contact to Rs, so this could be a fun one. For the Reds, make sure Jonathan India is in the lineup after leaving late in the game yesterday (he said he was fine after the game), and you can build a stack with Matt McLainStuart Fairchild, and Luke Maile. For the Rockies, Jurickson ProfarElias Díaz are your best bets.

With the gusts expected in SF and two FB pitchers – assuming Sean Manaea sees the bulk of the relief innings – the outfielders should be busy in this one.  For SD, Fernando Tatis Jr. is a no-brainer play as he’s had double-digit FP in 9/10 of his last games. Manny MachadoXander Bogaerts, and Nelson Cruz would be the other Padres to target against Manaea or for XBH in general.

During this streak for SF, 3 players (that aren’t currently hurt) have been leading the way offensively – LaMonte Wade Jr.Brandon Crawford, and recent call-up Luis Matos. Blake Sabol also has a chance of seeing the lineup given their injuries.

Osvaldo Bido had a surprise solid start vs these Cubs just 5 days ago, but that was with the wind blowing in at Wrigley. His career ERA also suggests regression is in store. Mike Tauchman had his 1st HR of the season yesterday, and he should be in a good spot here too as he had a hit and a run in the last game vs Bido. Christopher Morel got back on track during the last PIT series and had 2 HRs and 5 RBIs in the last series vs BAL. Ian Happ also had a lot of success in that PIT series, with 5 hits (2 XBH, 1 HR) and 4 RBIs.

Andrew Heaney has had an issue with walks over his last three starts, and that’s the type of help that the White Sox need to compete. The play of the slate – assuming he sees the top of the lineup – is Zach Remillard. Using Remillard plus cheap options like Tauchman/Maile/Fairchild frees up salary for a CIN stack + Tatis. If you want to go for a low-owned tournament stack, you can stack Remillard with Luis Robert Jr. and Jake Burger and still build a decent lineup with the options listed above.

Another low-owned stack for large field GPPs would be the “Burnes Buster” referenced earlier – Christian WalkerKetel MarteCorbin Carroll, and Jake McCarthy.

Batter Pricing Jun 19 23


Justin Wainwright

Originally from the Midwest, but moved to Colorado almost 10 years ago for the sun & Red Rocks. My lifelong aspiration is to either build the perfect analytical simulation tool for MLB players & games or be the head writer for a hit TV show that changes the medium for the next generation. Unofficial president of the Bartolo Colon & Danny Trejo Fan Clubs

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