Slate Details
DraftKings/FanDuel – Main slate (7 games) – starts 6:40 PM EDT.
Weather Impact
MIL is visiting GABP. Decent wind blowing out to right for OAK@PIT. No rain expected (KC@MIA & STL@TEX both should have closed roofs).
Pitching
The popular SP1 is going to be Aaron Nola vs DET. He’s had a rougher season than expected this year, but he should have a safe enough floor to be good in all formats. But is he the best bet of the day?
It could be argued Braxton Garrett is the best pitcher on the Marlins right now (sorry Sandy fans). KC has a couple of bats that are trouble vs Ls, but since they’re on the road, Garrett should take care of business here. On FanDuel, he’s a solid GPP play pivot off chalky Nola in case the Tigers get a couple pesky runs.
In that same game, Mike Mayers has been a nice surprise for KC. MIA has been a better offense lately (who isn’t vs the As?) but this could end up a pitchers’ duel. Given the starter situation and a relatively small sample size, Mayers may not be on many players’ radars yet (and still underpriced on DFS sites).
It’s very likely Blake Snell gets overly popular on this small slate due to the Cubs struggling lately, but that could be a mistake. The Cubs still hit Ls fairly well and Snell has disappointed a number of times this season. It’s a relatively safe park situation and he’s been better in his last two starts – vs WAS & MIA, so take that as you will – but he still only has 1 win in 11 starts. If he’s chalk, you’ll want to be under the field on him, especially in tournaments.
Johan Oviedo is worth mentioning because he gets the As, but it’s a highly volatile spot – outside of GABP, PIT is the 2nd highest favorable hitting environment on the slate. Oviedo has been good at times – and he does mainly generate GB contact vs Ls – but he is prone to allowing FB hits and hard contact vs Rs. The tournament play may be to stack both sides of this game (more on that later).
Batting
Another day at GABP, another day starting our lineups there. The Brewers are currently enjoying their time in Cincy, scoring at least 5 runs in the first 3 games of this series, and now they get to introduce Andrew Abbott to the bigs. Abbott has been solid in the minors – 54 Ks across 38.1 IP with a 3.05 ERA/1.07 WHIP – but GABP in June makes grown men cry. If we limit our MIL targets to the least likely candidates to strike out, we get a trio of options. William Contreras has been hitting Ls well all season and is the safest bet. Owen Miller is likely batting leadoff and will likely be popular. Andruw Monasterio – who may be questionable after leaving yesterday’s game early after hitting his 1st HR (but looked OK in post-game interviews) – is still relatively unknown and largely overlooked by both DFS players and sites alike, but hitting well in most of his starts so far and can offer plenty of upside for his price.
Julio Teheran has been a good comeback story for the Brewers thus far, but surviving GABP will be a true test. Teheran is a FB pitcher vs Ls with a decent amount of solid contact, and Jake Fraley will be more than happy to take advantage. Fraley has 5 hits in this series, including 2 HRs and 4 SBs. He’s not Elly De La Cruz, but he’ll have to do…
OAK@PIT has a healthy wind blowing out to right, and both pitchers have FB tendencies that could end up getting exploited. JP Sears has been stingy in his last two starts – only allowing 1 ER in each vs ATL & SEA – but his K rate has dropped significantly. In the past month, he has had over 50% of R bats result in fly balls, and nearly 15% of those have been barrel hits. This should greatly benefit Rodolfo Castro (who generally hits Ls well) and Andrew McCutchen.
As mentioned above, Oviedo could be susceptible to some hard hits from OAK’s R bats if they make contact. Shea Langeliers has 3 hits in his last 2 games, but he may sit after catching the last 3 games straight in Miami. Esteury Ruiz also has hits in all 3 games of the last series in MIA. Ryan Noda is a lefty – but hits mainly FB with hard contact – and his spray chart is predominantly out to right which makes him a good fit for the park conditions. The As are currently in the middle of a long East Coast road trip though (MIA-PIT-MIL), making these large field tournament plays only.
Our next victim is Alek Manoah. He’s one of the 6 pitchers that have allowed 12 or more SBs in their starts this season, and TOR hosts HOU, who also happen to have two power Ls that can exploit his FB tendencies – Yordan Alvarez & Kyle Tucker. Tucker happens to be a dual threat here as he also steals. Jeremy Peña & Corey Julks are the other Astros with the greatest chances of SB upside.
Brandon Bielak has some interesting home/road splits – namely that he isn’t as good on the road – and even though he’s mainly a GB pitcher, he’s given up some hard contact hits to Rs. This should benefit Bo Bichette & George Springer; both had 0/5 days yesterday, but they rarely have back-to-back zero-hit games, so I expect them to rebound here. Brandon Belt is also in the mix given his 3/3 XBH in his last 2 games.
Joey Wentz mostly has been an unimpressive Toby this season – with the exception of the shocker he delivered with his last start vs the Rangers. The Phillies have been disappointing too, but it’s unlikely that Wentz has turned the corner. The three hot bats from the WAS series have been J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, & Kyle Schwarber. Given Wentz’s GB profile vs L, Schwarber is probably best used as part of a full stack, while Realmuto & Castellanos are fine as isolated plays or used together.
STL@TEX is an interesting game given the pitchers, but the roof will probably be closed due to weather which may limit the shootout potential. On the STL side, Paul DeJong, Andrew Knizner, and Luken Baker are all good counters to Martín Pérez and mainly appealing as value plays with upside. The top of the lineup is costly for TEX, but Marcus Semien & Corey Seager both have high floors if you have the salary to fit them.
Finally, CHC@SD is the most pitcher-friendly matchup of the night, but that may favor the Cubs more than the Padres. Kyle Hendricks has only had 2 starts so far this season, and although they haven’t been great, he hasn’t yielded any XBH and teams have had to chain singles or force walks to get to him. The Cubs, on the other hand, are a patient and productive team vs Ls, led by Nico Hoerner & Dansby Swanson. Yan Gomes & Trey Mancini also had HRs vs Weathers the other night in similar conditions, so this is a volatile matchup for Blake Snell. Stacking Cubs is an excellent GPP strategy.