Slate Details
Contrary to what normally happens on Saturday, we have a small four-game early slate on each site (note- not the same four games) and a large 7 PM ET main slate on each slate (also with different games). Two doubleheaders make things messy.
DraftKings – Early slate (4 games) – starts 1:05 PM EDT; Main slate (12 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT.
three games are exclusively on DK – CLE@TEX (Early), the second SD@PHI game (Main), and the second TB@KC game (Main). The first TB@KC game is not on DK’s Early slate.
FanDuel – Early Only slate (4 games) – starts 1:05 PM EDT; Main slate (10 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT. FD includes both early games of the TB@KC & SD@PHI doubleheader and does NOT have the late games on the Main slate. CLE@TEX is only found on the two-game Afternoon Only slate (for true degenerates only).
This article will focus mainly on the 7 PM slate; general thoughts of the early games will be covered briefly first.
Weather Impact
7 PM slate:
Rain for SF@PIT & MIL@CIN (and possibly LAD@NYM) – check forecasts or watch #dfs-and-bets in the PitcherList discord for updates.
Wind blowing slightly in for NYY@COL, but it’s still Coors and just needs the Yankees bats to show up (unlike yesterday).
Winds blowing straight out for MIL@CIN (top projected game for HRs). Also HR-friendly – SD@PHI (Hot, wind out to center), MIA@BAL (winds out to left), LAD@NYM (warm, winds out to left).
Winds blowing in for WAS@STL & DET@SEA.
Early Slate Summary
Pitching
Tyler Glasnow (FD only) is worth playing on FanDuel as that’s the only place you’ll find him, and KC should still be good for Ks but there might be a delay or two from rain that could limit him from pitching deep into the game. But there are other great options too with Blake Snell, James Paxton, and the pitchers duel between Zac Gallen & Kevin Gausman. There’s a healthy wind blowing out for both SD@PHI & BOS@CHC – but Snell & Paxton are mainly GB pitchers so you can probably use them albeit with slightly more risk than Gallen/Gausman (wind blowing in).
Estimated ranking: Glasnow (if rain not an issue) > Gallen > Snell > Gausman > Paxton
Edit: Chris Bassitt in for Kevin Gausman – Bassitt’s K rates are down on both sides making him a less attractive option.
Batting
If playing Early Only on FD, build around Isaac Paredes & Wander Franco vs Alec Marsh (the first game likely won’t be a PPD even if rain is off and on all day).
If playing DK, build around Amed Rosario & José Ramírez vs Andrew Heaney (Ramírez is 2/4 lifetime vs Heaney, both hits being HRs).
Juan Soto should be a good play vs Taijuan Walker with the wind. If playing tournaments, the low-rostership play is to try and bust Snell with Alec Bohm & J.T. Realmuto. Phillies are also calling up Johan Rojas who has SB upside at the bare minimum salary on DK.
Marcus Stroman has had a rough stretch of games with three or more ERs in his last three games. With the wind blowing out and a L-dominant lineup by the Red Sox (Devers had two HRs yesterday BTW), a Red Sox stack of Jarren Duran, Alex Verdugo, and Rafael Devers is a solid play for a small slate like this.
Kevin Gausman is looking a little vulnerable lately with two ERs allowed in his last two games. Corbin Carroll & Alek Thomas would be two other low-rostered tournament plays that could pay off.
Lastly, TEX will likely be popular after their 12-run performance yesterday. Corey Seager is almost a daily play vs anyone, Josh Jung & Adolis García have impressive reverse splits numbers vs Rs, and Nathaniel Lowe had a HR yesterday.
Pitching (7PM)
Pitchers in green are DK only as FD is only offering contests with the early DH games.
*Both pitchers in second TB@KC game are expected to be bulk relievers at best in a bullpen game for both teams.
SP1 for this slate is a toss-up between Spencer Strider at home vs CWS or Pablo López on the road vs OAK. Strider likely gets the slight nod due to a higher chance of a win bonus.
Alex Cobb would be the solid SP2 choice, but there’s rain in the forecast which might keep him from going deep into the game if a rain delay happens. George Kirby is likely the popular SP2 because it’s DET, but SEA still isn’t showing a whole lot of offensive production. Kodai Senga would probably be the upside play in tournaments, since he’s facing off vs LAD, but his K & PLV rates are good lately. Steven Matz could surprise here too – yes, it’s WAS, but the park is the most pitcher friendly of the day, and given yesterday’s game was suspended in the third due to rain, that means both teams are playing close to a doubleheader and could be tired in this late game.
Batting (7PM)
Assuming rain doesn’t interfere with MIL@CIN, that game and NYY@COL are the two games to build around on the main slate.
Yankees were very disappointing in Coors yesterday, but when you play DFS, you have to have a short-term memory. Giancarlo Stanton is at least doing his thing, so he’s a solid play. Billy McKinney is a cheap lefty (and more reliable than the ghost of Anthony Rizzo and short-term standby Franchy Cordero) and Anthony Volpe has a strong R-on-R hit profile that hopefully helps him bounce back from his 0-4 yesterday.
Hey look- Kris Bryant is back! He even had a HR yesterday and he’s on a four-game hit streak. Cool cool cool. Austin Wynns is a sleeper play if he makes the lineup at C, but that would mean sitting Mr. All-Star MVP – which is probably very unlikely.
Last time Andrew Abbott started, it was vs this MIL team on the road, and he had a horrible-no-good-really-bad day (9 H, 6 ER, 4.1 IP). MIL was just slightly less worse than CIN to win a 1-0 game in GABP yesterday (how is that even possible?) but you have to consider the trio responsible for three doubles and a HR in the last game – William Contreras, Willy Adames, and Owen Miller.
Was CIN just slow off the All-Star break yesterday with their sad two-hit performance? Freddy Peralta is looking good on paper recently so this might be a wait-and-see spot for the Reds, but Will Benson is still making the best of limited opportunities. There’s worse punts you can play than a guy who was half of the team’s offense production yesterday.
If you’re playing DK, the second SD@PHI game is an intriguing game to stack as an alternative to loading up on Coors & GABP. Manny Machado is on a heater going back to before the All-Star break – it doesn’t hurt to have solid winds blowing out facing a lefty either. Gary Sánchez might even be worth a play here. Lastly, watch for Matthew Batten, who hasn’t played much yet, but is a solid R bat with decent speed.
The Padres are expected to roll out a lefty double feature with Ryan Weathers in the late game, and he usually brings the fireworks. As mentioned earlier, Alec Bohm should have a fun day hitting both these guys, and Johan Rojas is worth a flier for just $2K. Nick Castellanos could be a good play here too as Weathers just isn’t that good.
Does the good or bad version of Braxton Garrett show up in BAL? If it’s the version that’s given up three ERs in his last two starts, then BAL bats like Austin Hays, Jordan Westburg, and Ryan Mountcastle should profit. Jesús Sánchez for MIA should also continue to find XBH opportunities vs Kyle Gibson.
The Mets got off to a bang yesterday with a double by Nimmo, then did NOTHING THE REST OF THE GAME. That doesn’t instill confidence, but Tony Gonsolin has been bad for four straight starts and he can give up hard hits to R bats. Francisco Alvarez hits his four-seamer and split finger pitches very well right out to left where the wind will be blowing. Starling Marte & Mark Canha could be other plays if you want to try a bottom half stack for tournaments. Pete Alonso would be an option for the stack as well, but probably not a good cash or standalone play given his recent struggles.
Finally, every slate has to at least have some consideration of Braves bats… Lance Lynn is an enigma who is fresh off a seven inning one-hitter vs TOR, but does he have the stuff to shut down this ATL team? If not, guys like Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson & Eddie Rosario will benefit.