DFS Plays of the Day – 7/3/23

Optimal DFS Plays for DK & FD for Mon Jul 3

Slate Details

DraftKings/FanDuel – Main slate (6 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT.

Weather Impact

Possible T-storms for BAL@NYY.

Hot with strong winds out to left-center for BAL@NYY.

Warm with winds out to right-center for PIT@LAD.

Light winds in for ATL@CLE, but still considered a good environment for HR/XBH.

Hot with light winds out to right-center for KC@MIN – slightly favorable for XBH but not as much as the others above.

Wind blowing in for LAA@SD, making it the most pitcher-friendly game on the slate.


PLV Pitching Jul 3 23
  • There is a chance Kershaw gets bumped from this start, which likely results in a bullpen game for LAD

Blake Snell has been crazy good for over a month now, and the Angels have a long history of being a favorable matchup for Ls – Snell just feels like the no-brainer SP1 without any apparent risks.  He’s also a bargain on DraftKings for some reason.

As far as SP2 options go, Tyler Wells vs Domingo Germán looked like the typical pitchers duel on paper, but if the park conditions end up as projected, it’s the game expected to be the most favorable for hitting.  Germán is still riding the wave of his CGSO vs OAK from his last start which could be credited to luck as well as the opponent – but as the series with the Twins showed, BAL isn’t doing much vs Rs lately either.  He feels like the better of the two in this matchup, as Wells tends to be more of a FB pitcher to both sides of the plate, and even if it’s a weaker-than-normal Yankees lineup, they are in their home park.

Tyler Wells is probably still an OK start for cash, but in these types of matchups, it feels like he’s going to have his standard 2 ER, 6-7 K, no decision type of performance.

Joe Ryan feels safe, as he gets KC at home.  The only drawback for Ryan is that the Twins are facing a lefty in Austin Cox, and they seem to be unable to get anything going vs Ls, making a win not a sure thing.  For cash, paying top dollar for safe is OK, but for tournaments, there may be more upside in pivoting to other options.

Speaking of Austin Cox, he’s a price – and matchup – positive SP2 if you want extra salary for bats.  This isn’t much of an endorsement based on his abilities, but more a statement to how ineffective the Twins are vs lefties.

The Dodgers generally aren’t a spot to target for pitching, but Mitch Keller has been good lately, and the Dodgers have a number of hitters struggling at the plate.  Two months ago, Keller had 10 Ks vs these Dodgers – Max Muncy missed that game, but he’s striking out at a high rate lately which is in Keller’s favor.

Clayton Kershaw is questionable for this start vs PIT, and general comments from both him and the coaching staff suggest that he’s more likely to be scratched – which probably makes this a bullpen game.  If he does start, it’s likely he’ll be on a pitch count to limit his usage which makes him a tough play given his price.

Pitcher Pricing Jul 3 23


The game that is most likely to have scoring on both sides is ATL@CLE.  Gavin Williams had a rocky first start vs OAK and a solid start vs KC, but ATL is a completely different test.  Given the soft pitcher pricing, ATL bats will likely be popular for this slate and should be the focus of your builds.  Matt OlsonEddie Rosario, and Sean Murphy are a solid core to start, but you can also overload the stack with Ronald Acuña Jr.Ozzie Albies if you have salary to spare.

Bryce Elder has been a steady and reliable starter for the Braves, even if analytics suggest he’s long overdue for regression.  The Guardians are starting to heat up and have a home stand where they hope to overtake the division lead from the Twins.  Yesterday Andrés Giménez was a force vs Taillon and should be a good play again vs Elder.  José Ramírez should also bounce back from an off game yesterday.  Amed Rosario is also worth a look with 5 hits in his last 3 games.

The Yankees are a completely different team without Judge, but given the right situation, they can still put up some runs.  The best bet for a HR in these conditions is Giancarlo Stanton, but Anthony Volpe also tracks well vs Wells and his fastballs vs Rs.

The Padres still feel like they’re underperforming as a team, but they tend to have 1-2 bats that carry the team for a while until momentum shifts to other players.  For now, Trent Grisham is on a roll with XBH in 4 of his last 6 games.  Juan Soto also has 7 hits in his last 4 games.  Both are viable standalone plays vs Jaime Barría.

SEA is a resurgent team of late, winning 2/3 vs the Rays while scoring 4 or more runs in each game of the series.  Julio Rodríguez has had 5 hits in those last two games and should keep it up vs Logan Webb, who allows FB+hard contact to Rs.  Eugenio Suárez is also an upside play, but primarily for tournaments given his strikeout tendencies.  Lastly, Webb is strong vs L bats overall, but J.P. Crawford has been a strong bat leading the way during this 3-game surge, and will be involved if they build on this streak.

Mitch Keller is strong vs Rs which should negate a good number of the Dodgers power hitters of late.  Singer similarly shut down most of their lineup yesterday, but one standout was David Peralta, who had 3 of the Dodgers 6 overall hits in that game.

Hitter Pricing Jul 3 23


Justin Wainwright

Originally from the Midwest, but moved to Colorado almost 10 years ago for the sun & Red Rocks. My lifelong aspiration is to either build the perfect analytical simulation tool for MLB players & games or be the head writer for a hit TV show that changes the medium for the next generation. Unofficial president of the Bartolo Colon & Danny Trejo Fan Clubs

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Account / Login