Slate Details
FanDuel/DraftKings – Main slate (12 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT
Pitching
Clayton Kershaw has eased back into action since returning from an injury that cost him six weeks. He has made three starts but only gone 12 innings combined. His last start was just 2 innings due to a rain delay. He should be well-rested for a deep run today against Arizona. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start since May 27.
George Kirby hasn’t been at his best lately, but he’s being discounted too much considering his track record (3.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) and opponent (Oakland). He’s lined up for a big day.
A potential pitchers’ duel is brewing on the North Side of Chicago. Justin Steele continues to be one of the best stories of the season. He has not allowed more than three earned runs since May 26. The knock against Steele is his low strikeouts relative to other aces (8.67 K/9 on the season). He has not had a double-digit strikeout game this season. Corbin Burnes is on the other side. He offers more strikeouts but less consistency. He’s been hard to predict this season and I’m not going to try now. In his last three starts, he struggled against the Twins and White Sox but dominated the Dodgers. May the odds be ever in your favor!
Dean Kremer is an interesting option on a tight budget. He’s recorded three straight quality starts against tough opponents in Toronto, San Diego, and Houston. He shut out the Blue Jays over six innings in his last start. He takes on the slumping White Sox who were just one-hit by Grayson Rodriguez last night.
Another inexpensive option is Seth Lugo, who has quality starts in five of his last seven games. He’s taking on the struggling St. Louis Cardinals who have lost 10 of their last 12 games and have looked pretty awful doing it.
There are a few players who could have a strong night but should be avoided.
Merrill Kelly leads that group. Kelly has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts and recorded double-digit strikeouts in two of his past three. But he draws a tough matchup against the Dodgers. In his last start against the Dodgers, Kelly had a line of 6IP 0ER 6H 2BB 2K – not bad, but nothing that’s going to put you over the top. And that’s the ceiling.
Pablo López also makes the do-not-draft list. He was brilliant in his first four starts of August, but inconsistency has been the name of his game this season. Last start against Texas, Lopez surrendered 10 hits and five earned runs in five innings. Lopez isn’t a bad option against Cleveland, but he’s one of the most expensive pitchers on the slate. That’s money better spent elsewhere.
I want to give José Berríos the nod with a matchup with the Nationals, but I just can’t do it. For one, the Nationals have actually been brilliant lately, going 11-5 and averaging nearly five runs per game since Aug. 11. Also, I just don’t trust Berrios. Overall, it’s been nice to see him bounce back this season, but he’s had a few clunkers along the way, including two of his past three starts.
Hitting
The Atlanta hitters had some FUN at Coors Field last night. The Braves put up 18 hits and 14 runs, including home runs for Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley, who are both strong options again tonight. Marcell Ozuna did not homer in the game, but that’s definitely been his thing lately. Ozuna has a slash line of .500/.552/1.192 over the past week with five home runs. A stack of Atlanta hitters is a viable (but expensive) option. If you go that route, add Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris II to your list.
Jesse Scholtens takes the bump for the White Sox after allowing 10 earned runs over his last two starts. He has struggled with his command (five walks allowed Aug. 19 vs. Colorado) and the long ball (three HR allowed Aug. 24 vs. Oakland). Baltimore will be a tough test. Gunnar Henderson is hitting .364/.390/.636 with three home runs, 13 RBI, 12 runs, and three stolen bases over the past two weeks. In that same stretch, Anthony Santander is slashing .324/.333/.676 with four homers. Austin Hays is a great option on a budget.
Houston’s J.P. France was obliterated in his last start against Boston, giving up 10 earned runs on 11 hits and two walks. Guess who he gets to pitch against tonight? Yep, Boston is back up. That’s great news for Adam Duvall who is the hottest hitter on the planet right now. He has six home runs in his past eight games. Alex Verdugo homered off of France last week and went long in three straight games from there. Justin Turner has a HR in two of his past three games. Triston Casas is massively undervalued. He’s a must-start for me at his price.
Boston starter Brayan Bello takes the ball on the other side. While he’s been good with a 3.26 ERA over the past month, the Astros have been hitting the ball like World Champs lately. Alex Bregman has a 1.114 OPS over the last two weeks and Jose Altuve is 8-for-19 with 9 runs, 5 RBI, two doubles, a triple, and a home run in his past four games.
Oakland’s Ken Waldichuk has a 6.05 ERA this season and just one quality start all year. Teoscar Hernández is on a seven-game hitting streak with multiple hits in six. Over the past three games, he is 6-for-12 for three home runs and 9 RBI. Waldichuk is a lefty and that’s great for Hernandez who is considerably better against southpaws with a slash line of .306/.322/.559 this season. Julio Rodríguez loves a lefty too (.317/.354/.488 this season) but it really doesn’t matter who is pitching right now. The young phenom is crushing them all. His August line is a ridiculous .429/.474/.724 with 7 home runs, 30 RBI, 19 runs, and 11 stolen bases. Josh Rojas is great on a budget. Since joining Seattle at the trade deadline, Rojas is slashing .290/.333/.468 with 3 HR, 10 RBI, 16 runs, and 4 stolen bases.
There’s not a lot of tape on Toronto’s Davis Schneider, but the small sample we have so far has been excellent. The rookie is running hot with three home runs in his past four games. He has five total homers on the season and four of them have come off lefties. Woe unto Washington’s MacKenzie Gore. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s struggles have brought his price way down, but he’s starting to heat up again with hits in nine straight and two homers in the past four games.
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