The debates surrounding player value in fantasy baseball rage on throughout the year, but they are at their highest importance during the offseason. Roster construction, trade talks, and draft preparation are all on the minds of fantasy managers everywhere, and the decisions they make now will have lasting impacts on their season(s) going forward.
Few positions can impact a fantasy team the way a first baseman can. They are often one of the main sources of power, average, and RBI in a fantasy lineup, and can drastically change the way a roster looks. A good first baseman sets you up for success week in and week out, while a below-average one can lead to a disappointing season.
No two first basemen are exactly alike, but I tried to base these matchups on the players’ floor and ceiling in fantasy, as well as their physical traits to make the comparisons as fair as possible. I tried to avoid the “Player A has more power upside than player B because of (insert height/weight here)” but, while it’s not the most important factor, it is still a factor.
Here are three first baseman comparisons I anticipate fantasy managers contemplating entering 2025.
Top Ten: Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman
These two names have been talked about in the same sentence for years, ever since the Atlanta Braves opted to cut ties with Freddie Freeman in favor of Matt Olson prior to the 2022 season. Due to the immense popularity that Freeman had created with the Braves’ fanbase, this was a move filled with emotion for all parties. Atlanta had to say goodbye to a franchise cornerstone, Freeman was forced to leave a place where he built a career, and Olson dealt with the pressure that comes with replacing a franchise icon.
On paper, it looked like both parties adjusted to their new situations just fine. Both players eclipsed the 3-WAR mark in all three seasons since the switch, and each finished in the top four in MVP voting in at least one season. In fact, Freeman finished directly above Olson in 2023, with the former finishing third behind just his teammate, Mookie Betts, and Ronald Acuña Jr. From 2022 to 2024, the two superstar first basemen rank #1 and #2 in cumulative WAR, with Freeman leading by almost six wins.
Advantage: Freeman
So Freeman is better, right? Yes, over the last three years, the former Brave has been better than the current Brave and reaped his rewards. Freeman won his second World Series trophy of his career with the Dodgers in 2024, while the Braves were eliminated by the Padres in the Wild Card round. On paper this is an easy comparison, Freeman wins in a landslide.
Well, it’s not that simple.
The one major area which Olson stands out against Freeman is power output. You could remove all of Olson’s homers from the 2024 season and he would still best his counterpart between 2022-2024 in that stat. That’s not to say that the Dodgers’ first baseman can’t hit home runs (see: World Series Game One), but in fantasy, home runs come at a premium, and Olson provides a lot more of them than Freeman. Over the course of the current decade, only four players have hit more dingers than the Braves’ slugger (Judge, Ohtani, Schwarber, Alonso). The deeper numbers indicate that Olson hits the ball harder more often than Freeman, which has led to him winning the home run battle in each of the past three seasons.
Yes, this table shows regression between 2023 and 2024 for Matt Olson. That said, he hit 54 homers with a .604 slugging percentage in ’23, both of which are pretty significant outliers compared to the rest of his career. Going forward, I expect him to be comfortably in the 35-40 range. Even though he fell short of that mark in ’24 (29), his bat speed is among the elite, and his launch angles have been consistent since 2022.
The stats also show that Freeman’s plate disciple is head and shoulders above Olson though, which has led to the near 50-point gap in OBP in (almost) each of those seasons. OBP is an important statistic to prioritize in 5×5 leagues, so Freeman’s value is higher there, however that value is not irreplaceable. From 2022 to 2024, eight players have had seasons with a higher OBP than Freeman’s high mark (.410). Only Aaron Judge has hit more homers in one season than Olson during that time.
Advantage: Olson (but barely)
There are also some question marks regarding Freeman’s longevity going forward. He turned 35 in September and will be playing in his 16th season in Major League Baseball. His competition is a spring chicken in comparison. Olson is 30 and is only entering his eighth season in the show. Freeman’s injury troubles were also well-documented in the postseason. The veteran suffered from ankle and rib issues and was forced to get surgery to address the troubles in his right ankle.
Both players have been nearly ever-present in their teams’ lineups, as in 22 combined seasons, they have registered just one season in which they did not play more than 110 games (Olson’s 59 in 2017). That longevity may be catching up to the elder one though, and at 35, it may affect him more than it would have in previous years. From a dynasty perspective, Freeman is under contract until the end of the 2027 season, when he will be 38. In contrast, Olson is under contract for two extra years and will hit free agency at 35.
Advantage: Olson
Is Freddie Freeman still an elite first-baseman who will give you high-level production in the immediate future? Absolutely, no question about it. He is still one of the best players at his position right now and will go down as one of the best players of his generation. That said, his age, combined with the power upside that Olson provides and the extra years he has, give Freeman’s replacement in Atlanta the edge in this one.
Verdict: Matt Olson (But Freddie Freeman is still REALLY good)
One Tier Down: Michael Busch vs. Triston Casas
Full disclosure: I wasn’t planning on writing about this matchup. When I originally outlined this piece, Spencer Torkelson was listed in place of Michael Busch. On paper, it doesn’t seem like much of a comparison. Casas is younger, has performed in the majors for longer, and has become a key part of a contending franchise. At first, I had the same train of thought, then realized that Busch was in a similar position. He’s become a key part of the Cubs’ plans, and was a Rookie of the Year candidate in his first season in the majors, albeit at 26 years old. This line of thinking was confirmed while researching and forming my opinion. I discovered that Busch and Casas put up nearly identical numbers in 2024.
It’s important to note the “games played” column, as Casas missed several months due to a rib injury. Busch was a mainstay in the Chicago lineup, and his production was one of the reasons that the Cubs remained competitive throughout the summer. While that is impressive, it would be unfair to ding Casas because of an injury, especially after he proved he can handle a season-long workload in 2023.
You may be thinking: “Their season numbers are similar, so what? I bet the Statcast data shows one is better than the other.” I thought that too, and was once again struck by the similarities.
Casas tops Busch’s power-indicating numbers, especially in bat speed, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. This disparity materialized on the field, with Casas hitting a homer once in every 18.69 at-bats, compared to Busch’s 26.76 mark. Casas was on pace to hit 30 home runs if he had been given the same amount of at-bats as his counterpart. However, Busch nearly sweeps the plate discipline numbers, indicating there is room for growth from his .335 OBP last season.
As I stated above, power is a more valuable trait to possess in fantasy in my opinion, and Casas has plenty of it. Their plate discipline stats are only separated by a couple of percentage points, and Casas’ 2023 numbers in that area were at the same level as Busch’s. Due to those facts, I lean towards Casas because of the higher power ceiling and the lack of drop-off in OBP.
One trait that Busch possesses that Casas does not is defensive versatility. The 27-year-old infielder has spent time at second base and third base for the Cubs, albeit briefly, and played in the outfield for the Dodgers. Casas hasn’t played any other position since 2019 in High-A, where he made eight appearances at third base. Busch represents a defensive option in multiple positions for Chicago, which increases his value with the organization. Neither player is a liability with the glove, but neither graded out highly either (Casas: -1 FRV, Busch: 1 FRV). Their gloves should be good enough to keep both in the lineup. However, should the Cubs make some more moves that force Busch out of his regular spot, the multi-positional eligibility he may possess could be a factor to keep an eye on for fantasy managers.
Busch and Casas have their fair share of differences. One is significantly older than the other (Busch: 27, Casas 24). They do not match up physically, with Casas having a four-inch and 30-pound advantage. Both took very different routes to the majors, as Casas was called up at 22 while Busch had to wait until his age-26 season. Despite the differences, there is one major similarity: both players are going to be crucial parts of their teams’ success in 2025.
Their teams enter 2025 in near-identical situations. Both the Red Sox and the Cubs ended the season on a sour note, as both fanbases were left disappointed by the lack of playoff baseball in October. However, the two historic franchises boast rosters full of young talent and could make the jump back into contention next season. Casas and Busch (as things stand) will both open the season at first base for their respective teams and will likely be integral contributors to the success or failure of their organizations.
So, who wins? I hate to be boring, but it’s the player you probably thought was going to win this matchup before reading it. Busch and Casas are nearly identical statistically, and both will be good, mid-tier, options to pursue if you need a first baseman next season. However, Casas’ power ceiling and youth make him the more appealing option to me.
Verdict: Casas (But it’s closer than you’d think)
The Next Wave: Xavier Isaac vs. Nick Kurtz
Trying to choose two first basemen in the minor leagues who could become future stars at the MLB level was like trying to decide between your favorite children. For days I went back and forth, considering players like Jac Caglianone, Bryce Eldridge and Ralphy Velasquez. At one point, I even considered discussing Tre’ Morgan. However, in the end, I decided on his Rays’ organizational teammate, Xavier Isaac, and Nick Kurtz. Why? Because I think both could make an impact on their major league rosters by the end of 2025.
Despite both being 21 and their similar physical builds (Isaac: 6’3″/240, Kurtz: 6’5″/240), the two prospects have taken very different paths to professional baseball. Both were first-round picks, but Isaac was drafted in 2022 at pick 29 out of high school, while Kurtz spent three years in the ACC with Wake Forest before being drafted #4 overall this year. Now, the two players are separated by just nine spots in the MLB’s top 100 prospects list and are #3 and #4 at their position.
Trying to compare their regular season stats would be counterintuitive, as Kurtz has only played 12 games in the minor leagues compared to Isaac’s 102 in 2024. However, both players spent time in the Arizona Fall League, so we’ll use that for now.
There’s not much in it, and it’s a very small sample size, but based on the results in level competition, you have to give the edge to Nick Kurtz, at least based on the data sample here. Obviously, this doesn’t tell the whole story or serve as any sort of indicator of future success, but it’s a good place to start.
MLB.com and Fangraphs seem to agree. Both give Kurtz a slight edge when it comes to his hit tool, which is consistent with the AFL results. The one area that Isaac has the advantage is in the power grades, which he’s demonstrated throughout his career in the minor leagues. He mashed 19 homers in 2023 and followed that up with another 18 this season. Isaac struggled in his first taste of AA ball this season, but still added three homers in 31 games. Kurtz also briefly reached AA this season, but a five-game sample isn’t enough to examine, despite a solid 129 wRC+.
In my discussion regarding Freeman/Olson, I made a big deal about valuing power tools over patience when it comes to fantasy baseball. However, both players in that comparison were above average in both fields. That is not the case here. Isaac’s strikeout rate raises some concerns, as he struck out 33% of the time this season, including a mark above 40% at AA to end the season. Kurtz, on the other hand, registered three collegiate seasons with more walks than strikeouts and continued that pattern in his first taste of MiLB action (12 BB, 10 K). Both players have the potential to be major power hitters, but once again, the advantage goes to Kurtz due to his eye at the plate.
In Tampa, Yandy Díaz is 33 and registered his worst marks in all five fantasy baseball categories since 2021. He will break camp as the club’s starter at first, but the Rays will have one eye on the future, who finished the season in AA this year and is poised for a breakout year in 2025. For the A’s, the youth movement has started. Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler, and Zack Gelof have all laid claim to spots on the roster. They’ve also added veteran pitching in Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs, making for an interesting roster to keep an eye on. Tyler Soderstrom has been good for the A’s in limited time in MLB, but will he block the former #4 overall pick from making a debut if the situation warrants it? Probably not.
There’s a clear pathway for both players to break into the major leagues this season. Both clubs have holes at first base that they could remedy with an in-house fix. However, when looking at the two of them side-by-side, there’s a clear winner in my opinion based on the all-around profile that he possesses.
Verdict: Kurtz
Image by: Doug Carlin