Upon taking one look at the 2025 preseason first baseman rankings, it would be easy to argue that it is currently the deepest position on the field. Especially with the likes of Bryce Harper and Salvador Perez now eligible at first base and joining their veteran peers in the top 10, the position certainly laps its infield peers in terms of sheer power production potential.
We also have three exciting faces in new places this season in Josh Naylor, Christian Walker, and Cody Bellinger, all of whom look primed to have big years for their respective new clubs.
These players are likely to already be on the radars of most fantasy managers, though, as they are all household names at this point in their careers. The real fun come draft day is finding those later-round values that end up significantly over-performing their ADP. The type of players who, at the end of the season, as you’re celebrating your championship victory, your competitors look back and ask, “How did we let you draft him there?”
These are five first basemen who make compelling cases for being such players for 2025.
*All ADP data via NFBC.
Michael Toglia – 183.11 ADP*
Coming off of an impressive 25 home runs (in only 116 games) in 2024, Michael Toglia has all the makings of a true breakout campaign upcoming for 2025. The Rockies switch-hitting first baseman has a sweet swing that immediately passes both the eye test and a review of the underlying metrics. His Baseball Savant page alone is something to behold. Despite only hitting for a .218 average last season, Toglia ranked in the elite 90th percentile or better in a whopping seven different categories.
His obvious flaw was his nearly bottom-of-the-league whiff rate (34.9%, 3rd percentile), which translated unsurprisingly to a similarly woeful strikeout rate (32.1%, 4th percentile). However, the fact that so many of his other metrics remained elite, including his walk percentage, indicates his clear recognition of the strike zone. One can imagine how his numbers could take off if an off-season tweak or two leads to even a small decrease in that whiff rate.
It’s also encouraging that Toglia’s expected batting average (.244) was a full 36 points higher than his actual average and that his expected OPS was almost 100 points higher than his actual OPS. This reveals that he was quite unlucky in how few of his well-struck batted balls actually translated into hits. These metrics also hint that he is more than the all-or-nothing “pure power” hitter that his .218 average with 25 home runs indicated on the surface.
With the continued improvements expected for a player at his age (26), a .250 average with a 35-home-run season seems very much in reach, and very much a bargain at the going ADP price. Currently projected to be hitting in a prime run-producing spot of fifth in the order, Toglia should also be expected to turn in a decent increase on his previous season total of 55 RBI.
Don’t forget about his 10 stolen bases, either, which ranked top five among all first basemen for 2024. Toglia’s slightly above-average sprint speed (for all players, not just first baseman) indicates that this was no fluke.
Yandy Díaz – 203.61 ADP*
A .288 lifetime hitter, Yandy Díaz has shown remarkable consistency in this category in an age where fewer and fewer hitters even cross .280 over the course of one full season.
Diaz has an extremely rare combination of elite hard-hit, chase, and whiff rates, signifying a unique combination of power and discipline. In fact, as renowned MLB reporter Sarah Langs recently highlighted, he was the only player last season in the 85th percentile or better in all three of these categories.
His launch angle sweet-spot percentage is extremely low, though, which unfortunately led to only 14 home runs despite how hard he hits the baseball. Tampa Bay’s plan to play their 2025 home games at the Yankees’ spring training facility, George M. Steinbrenner Field, could help solve this problem and be the impetus for a dramatic rise in Diaz’s power numbers.
Steinbrenner Field was built with the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, which means that it also has the infamous “short porch” to right field (314 feet down the right field line, to be exact). Looking at Diaz’s spray chart for 2024, there were at least a handful of balls that would have been out at his temporary new home park.
While left-handed hitters will naturally benefit more from the Bronx-cloned short porch in right field, Diaz’s approach from the right side of the plate is well-rounded enough to reap dividends as well.
Liners slashed the opposite way that may have gone for doubles last season are now strong homer candidates, similar to a slightly less violent version of what Giancarlo Stanton does in the real Yankee Stadium. More of this approach that Diaz took last season against a 99-mph fastball from Paul Skenes would work just fine.
Alec Burleson – 218.83 ADP*
One of the lone bright spots in a woeful offensive season for the Cardinals, Alec Burleson finished 2024 with a highly respectable .269 average with 21 home runs. He also led the team with 78 RBI.
His statcast metrics contain one of the simplest formulas for success that you can find: an extremely low strikeout rate (12.8%, 96th percentile) combined with an extremely high squared-up rate (31%, 91st percentile). Not only does he rarely strike out and consistently put the ball in play, but he does so by squaring up the baseball more often than most of his peers.
This reliable approach should allow him to sustain success into next season, and some rearranging of a stale Cardinals lineup should help his RBI production even further.
Burleson is slated to be hitting second behind exciting young shortstop Masyn Winn and in front of the ever-reliable Willson Contreras. His counting stats should see a boost as the Cardinals’ offense really can only go up from last year, but he is still going to be somewhat reliant on how much those around him can improve.
Winn especially looks like a player who could be on base quite often in front of Burleson. If any of the likes of Brendan Donovan, Jordan Walker, or Lars Nootbaar can take strides forward as well, it would add to Burleson’s overall value tremendously.
Nathaniel Lowe – 255.09 ADP*
A career .272 hitter with a 2022 peak season of a .302 average, 27 home runs, and an .851 OPS, Nathaniel Lowe has shown remarkable consistency over the past four seasons in terms of being available to play every single day.
His 140 games in 2024 were nearly consecutive after missing a brief stint to start the year. However, he never settled into a consistent position in the Rangers batting order, as can be seen by his at-bat splits by order position.
This could explain some of his inconsistencies over the course of the season, but he did put together multiple stretches where he was an above-average hitter by several measures. He finished the season on a particularly good note, hitting .310 over 87 September at-bats, including five home runs and a .931 OPS. He had a similarly impressive July, hitting .282 over 85 at-bats, including another five home runs and an .878 OPS.
Now he moves on to Washington, where there is a sneaky-good Nationals lineup building around him. Lowe is currently projected to be hitting fourth behind the young, dynamic trio of CJ Abrams, Dylan Crews, and James Wood. The bottom of the order looks promising as well, with the young talented José Tena and the speedster Jacob Young.
There is also an off-season quote from Lowe containing exactly what you would want to hear from your new middle-of-the-order first baseman: he is prioritizing an increase in power for his new team. Simply put, “I’m looking to get back to power production… I need to do a better job of maximizing my power production.” See the full quote here.
Jonathan Aranda – 392.29 ADP*
Many Rays fans were hoping that 2024 was going to be Jonathan Aranda’s breakout year. Unfortunately, a broken finger in spring training, followed by a strained oblique shortly upon his return, limited the lefty slasher to only 44 games.
The way he finished the season, though, revived those hopes of a lurking breakout. In 24 games in September, Aranda hit five home runs with an .836 OPS and 139 wRC+. Among 183 players who had at least 75 plate appearances in the month, he ranked 19th in barrel rate (15%) and 25th in xwOBA (.375).
Aranda now enters 2025 with expectations of being on the field every day for the Rays.
The previously mentioned announcement of the team playing their 2025 home games in Steinbrenner Field provides quite a boost to Aranda’s expectations as well. While the aforementioned Yandy Díaz may have to work a bit on harnessing his opposite-field power to fully capitalize on the hitter-friendly field, Aranda’s approach needs no such tinkering. It doesn’t take much imagination to envision this swing working quite well with a short right field.
Any concern that Toglia’s pronounced weakness against non-fastballs will catch up with him as pitchers adjust?
The only guy I’m NOT taking at these ADP’s is Toglia. There’s the fastball issue, but that probably will remain mostly unexposed untill people actually see the rest of the Rockies lineup as a threat.
The guy can only drive people in with the bases loaded, (sub .200 AVG in any situation w/ RISP other than loaded), and until last season his BsR was a negative, so the 5-10 bases he picks up per season are opportunistic. It’s also plainly clear that all his power is tied to Coors – 18HR @ home, 7 away, so you’re probably going to get less valuable playing time than regularly deploying someone on the strong side of a platoon at 1B.
Lol… this is what you get when all I can do is juggle static numbers in my head over the offseason – I got the home/road HR split backwards for Toglia. Still don’t like him, but not as much as I thought I did.