Olson Twins

In a season when many superstars are having off years, Matt Olson’s has been particularly rough. The Braves’ First Baseman went nuclear in the second half last season to finish with 54 home runs, 15 better than his career high. Olson’s leap was somewhat predictable–big-name players often perform better in their second year with a new team–and the Braves had productive, healthy bats in front of him, including an all-century effort from Ronald Acuña Jr.

This year it’s been a different story, for Olson and the Braves in general. Acuna went down in May, Ozzie Albies has been limited, and Austin Riley had a rough start (though he’s picked it up lately). All of this has amounted to fewer opportunities for the clean-up hitter to, well, clean things up. Whereas Olson drove in 139 runs last season, he’s only at 50 in 107 games this time around.

But you can’t just blame the players around him. Olson is carrying a career-low barrel rate, a career-low average exit velocity, and his WOBA is down more than 100 points from 2023. His strikeout rate is up 5% and his walk rate is down almost 6%. So what’s been the issue?

The key might be in the approach. Compare the decision-making from one year to the next. First, 2023:

Here, he spent most of the year well above the league average, minus a mini-slump in June. And he poured it on after that, which is where he hit 25 homers after the All-Star Break.

Compare that to this year:

It’s practically inverted from 2023. A decent start, then a long slide downward. He’s spent as much time below league average as he did last year above it–from Juan Soto territory to Javy Baez. And yet, there are signs of life in recent weeks, punctuated by his twin home runs today. Olson hammered an oppo-shot off Freddy Peralta in the fourth and cranked another ball to left against Nick Mears. Both long balls were well over 100 mph off the bat and cleared the yard easily.

Aside from the decision-making, Olson’s also been at least a little unlucky–his batting average against fastballs is 90 points less than last year (.226 versus .316), but the expected average is just 33 points different (.292 versus .259). So maybe this is the beginning of a turnaround for a historically better second-half player. Just don’t expect the same performance as last year.

 

Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday:

Travis d’Arnaud (ATL): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI. Matt Olson wasn’t the only Brave with two dingers Wednesday–d’Arnaud matched him bomb for bomb as the two went back-to-back twice on the day. d’Arnaud still splits time with Sean Murphy but he can get hot for a week or two and mash 5-6 homers before turning into a pumpkin again. He’s a good daily play while on these benders.

DJ LeMahieu (NYY): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, 6 RBI. The Yankees powered a sweep against the Phillies in what might be a World Series preview, and in this one, their runs came from an unlikely source. DJ LeMahieu, batting eighth, accounted for all six of New York’s scoring with a grand slam in the second inning and a two-run double in the sixth. Still, let’s not get too excited–Lemahieu’s batting .111 in his last 15 games, with a .306 OPS and has been pinch-hitting more often than not since the All-Star break. So let’s not get ahead of ourselves: DJ’s bat speed is in the lowest 10th percentile at 66.7 mph and he’s still working on career lows in average EV, WOBA, and a multitude of other metrics.

Jackson Holliday (BAL): 1-5, HR, R, 4 RBI. The Wonder Kid is back.  Called up after the Orioles made a flurry of trades at the deadline, Holliday is surely looking for redemption in his second stint in the big leagues. Everyone’s top prospect at the beginning of the year, Holliday made the wrong kinds of history in his debut, batting .059 with a 50% K-rate.  

It was a different story today–batting eighth with the bases loaded, Holliday blasted a 439-foot bomb to right at 109.2 mph and recorded his first major league home run. He was inches from his second homer but just missed fair territory. Holliday might be a prime example that a successful big-league career takes time. Trout and Harper had less-than-stellar numbers to start their careers, and things were astronomically better for both the second time around. Hopefully, that’s what we will see as expectations and pressure ease off a bit, and the kid just gets to play ball. It remains to be seen if Holliday has an everyday role given Baltimore’s newfound depth, but if he keeps hitting he’ll stay in the lineup.

Tommy Pham (STL): 3-4, 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI. Some friendly advice: if you’re in a points league you should stop reading this article and grab Pham off the waiver wire if you can. Traded this week from the toxic environs of Chicago to his original team, the Cardinals, Pham looks happy and comfortable with his new team. And he’s playing like it, driving baseballs to the gaps and generally causing havoc. Pham looked decent with the White Sox while playing in a cellar-dweller lineup–St. Louis isn’t the ’27 Yankees but it’s still a major jump. He batted sixth today but if he continues to rake he’ll move up to second where he’s historically been for most of his career.  

Christopher Morel (TBR): 1-4, HR, R, RBI. Morel also seems to like his new digs, with two homers in two straight games at the Trop. This might be a trade the Cubs regret, as Morel has awesome power but famously struggles with contact. He might never hit for average but when he gets hot, look out. And he’s made some strides–though his average his dipped to the Mendoza Line this season, he’s striking out far less than his career average (24.2% this year; over 30% his last two seasons) and walking more (11% versus 8.7%). He’s already at 20 home runs this season–and had 26 last year in less than 400 at-bats–so 30 is certainly possible. I’d take the over and am tempted to make a bold prediction that he gets to 35.

Jake Fraley (CIN): 1-3, HR, R, 3 RBI, BB. Fraley doesn’t exactly crush the ball–in fact, he’s in the bottom 1% in average exit velocity and bottom 3% in expected slugging. He’s got a miniscule barrel rate of 2.8%–less than half of what it’s been historically–but got into one tonight, parking a ball into the right-field bleachers. It’s Fraley’s first homer in Cincinnati this year (he’s hit two on the road). Typically a platoon bat, but effective when in the lineup, Fraley’s only had 41 plate appearances in July though he’s hit .300 and has an .892 OPS for the month. Perhaps David Bell will pencil him in more now that he seems healthier.

Marcus Semien (TEX): 2-3, 2B, RBI. The Rangers, like the Braves, have been trying to recapture their offensive potency all season. In an effort to jumpstart their bats, Semien has been moved out of the leadoff spot the last couple of games. He batted third in this one with Josh Smith hitting first. Time will tell if this pays off for the team, but for a player who thrives on plate appearances, this might hurt Semien’s overall value.

His advanced metrics are mostly in line with years past, but the results have been disappointing, with a .721 OPS compared to last year’s .826. A lot of his counting stats have taken a dive–he had 100 RBI last year hitting leadoff!–but that’s mostly due to the regression in the overall offense. Texas stayed woeful today, managing only one run against a Cardinals pitcher making his major league debut. At least Semien was the one to bring it home.

Freddy Fermin (KCR): 4-5, HR, R, 3 RBI. The Ferminator strikes again. Don’t look now, but the Royals’ catcher is hitting .379 in 31 plate appearances since the All-Star Break and is now over .300 on the season. He’s not much for power (six homers all season in 204 at-bats) but all four hits were right around 100 mph off the bat. He’s also seeing more playing time with 125 PA’s in June/July compared to 94 in April and May. If you’re in a categories league, a catcher hitting .300 is worth a look. He also mashes lefties with a .908 OPS and .441 OBP.

Colton Cowser (BAL): 2-5, HR, 2 R, RBI. On July 28th, Cowser was moved to the leadoff position. In the five games since, he has eight hits. Cowser is barreling at a 14.6% rate (92nd percentile), has some speed, and his average exit velo is 91.4 mph. He’s a future star and going to break out in the second half if he can stay atop this lineup.

Ian Happ (CHC): 3-4, 2B, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI. Speaking of players shining in a leadoff role, Happ’s been slotted into the number-one spot for the past two games. The first time didn’t go so well, but he did walk and score a run. In this game, he got on base in four of five plate appearances, mashed a 106 mph, 424-foot bomb, and scored three runs. The Cubs have been searching for a consistent leadoff hitter all season–in fact, Happ had the role for much of April–and the job seemed to be Nico Hoerner’s. But Happ’s batting average has improved every month (.189/.231/.244/.253) and his OBP skills are solid, with a 94th-percentile walk rate. As Billy Beane would say, “He gets on base.”

Bryce Harper (PHI): 0-5. It was a tough series for Philly as they got swept by the Yankees, but no one had a worse series than Harper, who went 0-for-14 in the three-game set. Harper’s been slumping for a while, really–since coming back from injury on July 9th he’s hit just .149 (albeit with four home runs). Lately, he’s only got one hit in his last thirty at-bats. That drops his average down to .274 on the season after he briefly topped .300 going into the break. Whether his timing is off or his hamstring is still bothering him, something isn’t right.

Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Twitter and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)