Sway Rod
Julio Rodríguez (SEA): 3-5, 2 HR, 2 R, 5 RBI.
We’ve got about a week left. Can you believe it? If you’re like me, you assess players by scoping projections while favoring long sample sizes. That’s redundant. Projections and weighing long sample sizes go hand-in-hand. Anyway, you get the point. The fantasy baseball season is a marathon and favors, for the most part, I think, playing the long game. Still, the peaks and valleys can play tricks with the minds of even the most patient managers, yours truly included. Expectations vacillate to and fro.
J-Rod seems like the perfect example of this conundrum. In February or March, his fantasy managers were brimming with confidence centering their hopes on a young star who could seemingly do no wrong after hitting 32 home runs while stealing 37 bases at just 22. Hey, maybe he gets even better! Wrong. And not just wrong but dead wrong. J-Rod disappointed through his first 100 games hitting 14 home runs while slashing .263/.315/.372. Everything felt empty. His managers were hungry and tired of seeing bagels on the scorecard. Their misery was exacerbated by a stint on the IL with a high ankle sprain after his 100th game.
But he has since risen from the ashes with a strong September. Last night, he spoiled Jacob deGrom’s 2024 home debut by swatting two home runs, both off deGrom’s replacement Jack Leiter. But that’s the thing about the baseball season; you can construct any sort of narrative you want based on the scope of your lens. But at the end of the season, we’ll scrutinize every player based on what they did over the year. In J-Rod’s case, with ten games to go, that’s a .317 wOBA, 34th among qualified outfielders. He has one home run less than Andrew Benintendi! Gasp. The horror.
There’s no other way to slice it. He’s had a down year. Still, J-Rod has underlying talent that few possess. He can fly and his bat speed is extraterrestrial. His one clear bugaboo is poor swing decisions (83 DV via PLV; 100 is average). He’s an aggressive hitter that can get into trouble by swinging at too many bad pitches. Maybe there are some unfavorable habits that he can clean in the offseason, but for now, he remains one of baseball’s enigmatic talents. Regardless, I’d wager that this is the low point. He’s simply too good.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Friday:
Tyler Stephenson (CIN): 3-5, 2B, HR, 3 R, 5 RBI.
The Reds backstop took Mitch Keller deep in his first at-bat, a solo shot to right-center (410 feet, 105.4 EV). Stephenson tagged Keller again in the third with a bases-clearing double to the gap in left. He didn’t do much in the first half, but he’s been a star lately, slashing .301/.383/.504 since August 1st (40 games).
Meanwhile, Stephenson’s teammate, Elly De La Cruz went 1-for-4 with a stolen base, the 100th of his career. Jonathan India also hit his 15th home run.
Kyle Tucker (HOU): 4-5, HR, 3 R, RBI.
After going 3-for-3 with three singles, Tucker stepped to the dish in the sixth and went yard on a 0-1 slider from Roansy Contreras (393 feet, 105.3 EV). A bruised shin injury that turned out far worse than initially thought halved what might have been a special season for Tucker. Still, he’s on the verge of finishing with a career-best .413 wOBA and .978 OPS. Tucker’s power (115 via PLV; 100 is average) falls short of his teammate Yordan Alvarez (130 via PLV, about two SDs above league average). Meanwhile, Tucker’s swing decisions (129 Decision Value) are among the best in baseball, just a few points below the likes of Aaron Judge (135) and Juan Soto (133).
Eric Wagaman (LAA): 3-5, 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Wagaman, a 27-year-old selected by the Yankees in the 13th round seven years ago, has been a regular at third base for the Angels since being called up on the tenth. He began the year with Double-A Rocket City posting a .366 wOBA and 134 wRC+ across 94 games. He’s an option if you’re in a deep league and need at-bats. The Angels start the final week with a three-game set at Guaranteed Rate Field against the White Sox and will avoid Garrett Crochet, so there’s some streaming appeal.
Colton Cowser (BAL): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Cowser’s first dinger of the night came against Tigers righty Keider Montero, a solo shot to straightaway central (411 feet, 103.8 feet) in the second. After whiffing in his second at-bat, the 24-year-old rookie tagged Montero again in the sixth, drilling a hanging curveball 417 feet to right (107.8 EV). Last night’s big game summarizes Cowser’s rookie season: lots of power (118 via PLV) but with sub-par contact ability (89) that’s ushered him into a platoon role (.285 wOBA and 87 wRC+ vs. LHP).
Speaking of strikeouts, a hat trick for Jackson Holliday pushed the highly celebrated prospect’s strikeout rate to 35.1%. It’s probably silly to look too much into it in terms of prognosticating Holliday’s future (he’s still 20!), but the rough start should at the very least make him a value in drafts next year.
Last, but not least for the Orioles, BUC James McCann went yard twice. Right. Just like everyone expected.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 3-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB.
You have my condolences if you’re facing this man in a Head-to-Head championship. Come to think of it, chasing the Ohtani team in a roto league might be a pain, too. Kyle Freeland was Ohtani’s latest victim, surrendering a go-ahead, two-run dong 423 feet to dead center. It was the second-highest pitch he has ever gone yard on, according to Sarah Langs. He’s also the first player with 12 RBI across two games since RBI became a stat in 1920. Two innings later, he beat out an infield single and stole his 52nd base. This guy. Who does he think he is?!
Michael Toglia (COL): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, RBI.
Lost in the hullabaloo over Mr. Sho-off was Michael Toglia who finished the Rockies’ latest defeat by tagging a slider from Michael Kopech for his 25th home run (374 feet, 99.9 EV). Sure, he’s hitting .219. Still, 25 home runs in 370 at-bats is nothing to sneeze at. Sure enough, PLV has graded his power at 130, roughly two standard deviations above the league average. The Rockies, meanwhile, finish with six games at home. He’s only 24% rostered on Yahoo.
William Contreras (MIL): 4-5, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Contreras pounced on a slider from Zac Gallen for his 23rd of the season, a two-run shot to right-center (409 feet, 104.3 EV). He’s tops among qualified catchers with a .362 wOBA and 133 wRC+. Although, it would’ve been a fun race between him and his big bro Willson, who had a .370 wOBA and 140 wRC+ before getting beaned.
Heliot Ramos (SFG): 3-4, 2B, 3B, R, RBI.
Almost Ramous. The Giants’ breakout star hustled out a triple on a line drive to center in the fourth but was left stranded. However, he doubled in the sixth and scored what ended up being the game-winning run on a single from Patrick Bailey. Ramos finished a homer short of the cycle. He strikes a lot, sure, but he’s also 16th among qualified OFers with a .342 wOBA. Not too bad for a guy’s first full season.
Alec Bohm (PHI): 4-5, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.
The Phillies worked David Peterson’s pitch count and knocked him out of the game in the fourth, turning this game into a bloodbath. Bohm greeted Peterson’s replacement, Adam Ottavino, with his 15th of the year, three days after returning from the IL with a hand injury. Bohm has been an interesting hitter to speculate on in terms of power growth. Alas, that hasn’t been the case with PLV pegging his power at 102, a hair above the league norm. Still, he’s been an excellent RBI guy and his .290 average is two points ahead of Juan Soto for 16th in baseball.
Connor Norby (MIA): 1-3, 2 R, BB, SB.
Norby, whom the Marlins acquired from the Orioles in exchange for Trevor Rogers, has been a fixture at the top of the lineup. His contact ability is a little shaky given his 30.1% strikeout rate. Still, he banged 16 home runs and stole 13 bases with a .399 wOBA and 136 wRC+ across 80 games with Triple-A Norfolk. He’s also got dual eligibility (2B/3B) in some formats, providing plenty of appeal.
Photo by Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)