Welcome to the Waiver Wire Picks, our daily fantasy baseball article that looks at the best players you should be adding to your rosters. We’ll look at the players that are likely to be available in most leagues, as well as some deep league waiver wire options. We’ll also look at the most-added players in fantasy baseball across the major sites and tell you which players to add and which to leave on the wire.
Top Priority Players to Add
Joshua Baez (STL) – OF (Yahoo – 23%)
Baez got the call last night for the Cardinals, joining an outfield that consists of Jordan Walker and some really nicely maintained grass. The Cardinals waited until this point because there are 17 remaining days of August, and their season ends on September 27th. That means Baez can’t exhaust his rookie eligibility due to the service time provision, which kicks in at 45 days (and 17 + 27 = 44). With how precise the Cards have been, you shouldn’t expect Baez to surpass 130 at-bats in the remaining 40 games either. That’s roughly 30 full games of playing time, though, depending on how often Baez walks. With playing time available, Baez is a massively high-variance prospect. He’s had a terrifying 67.7% contact rate in Triple-A this year, but it’s come with 34 homers and 21 steals in 103 games. There’s every chance Baez struggles in his first exposure to major league pitching, but he has upside that isn’t easily available on the wire right now. Snap him up, but don’t feel obligated to start him, especially against tough matchups, until you see him have some success.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) – SP (Yahoo – 40%)
It’s too late to get Pfaadt’s brilliant start against the Braves last night, but Pfaadt should still be a priority for your roster. Pfaadt has been dealing since his return to the Diamondbacks’ rotation. In those 9 starts, Pfaadt has a 1.15 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, while adding 7 wins. That’s obviously not a sustainable level of performance, but his FIP and xERA are both sub-3.00 in this span as well. There is one major caveat, though, which is that Pfaadt is really struggling to generate whiffs, and thus also strikeouts. Pfaadt has a swinging strike rate of only 7.9% during this run, which has led to a 14.4% K rate. The upside is that even with such a poor swinging strike rate, you’d expect a few more strikeouts, and even with such a poor K rate, he has an 11.1% K-BB rate thanks to an absolute refusal to issue free passes. The whole thing is a little too Nick Martinez or Keider Montero to be fully confident, but I’d rather roster Pfaadt than stream his spot in most leagues if I care about ratios.
Abimelec Ortiz (WSN) – 1B (Yahoo – 13%)
Ortiz is off to a .286/.306/.657 start to life in the majors. He has similar, if a bit toned-down, Triple-A batted-ball metrics to Baez, averaging a 91.3 mph exit velocity this season and barreling nearly 15% of his batted balls. What Ortiz does much better than Baez, though, is make contact. Ortiz had a 78.8% contact rate in Triple-A each of the past two years, which is a number Baez has not reached at any level. Ortiz should be viewed as a lower-variance power bat as compared to the Cardinals’ outfielder, including both the higher floor and lower ceiling, especially since he doesn’t run. Ortiz has shown a very solid approach in the majors, with a zSwing-oSwing of 41%. He’s making contact on 82.4% of his swings, an excellent number for someone who swings the bat as hard as he does at 76.4 mph. Ortiz isn’t walking at all during early stages, but that’s mostly because pitchers have consistently been in the zone against him and he puts the ball in play when he swings. As he continues to punish hittable pitches, the walks will come, especially with him sporting a very good 26% chase rate.
Yahoo and ESPN Most Added Players
We covered the hitters on this list earlier – they’re both must-adds down the stretch. Ortiz even has outfield eligibility despite not playing the position this season. The rest of the most-added players in ESPN leagues are streaming starters. Ian Seymour may not be long for the Rays’ rotation, with Shane McClanahan making rehab starts and Griffin Jax throwing long-toss, but he gets to pitch against the Orioles today. Seymour has been better than his 4.08 ERA would suggest, with most of his ERA estimators sitting in the mid-3.00s. He’s somehow been much better as a starter this season, with a 26.5% K-BB rate in the rotation compared to 15.3% in relief. He’s averaging over 5 innings in his last 10 appearances, so he can certainly go deep enough for the win. Nick has him inside the top 50 on the most recent edition of The List, and you should be happy throwing him in nearly every league.
Sean Manaea gets a start today hosting the Nationals in New York. Manaea has been on a heater, with 25 innings of 2.16 ERA/1.20 WHIP baseball in his last four starts. The Nationals offense is a different monster, though, ranking third for the season with a 110 wRC+ and sitting at a 118 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Still, with James Wood hitting the IL and Luis García Jr. in New York, you could easily justify running Manaea for this one. Nick has him as his stream of the day in his most recent streamer rankings.
Reid Detmers has a favorable matchup, hosting the Royals in LA. He’s been tremendous all season with a 20.4% K-BB rate and estimators better than his 4.00 ERA. The main knock on Detmers is the supporting cast hampering his ability to get wins, but the Royals aren’t exactly a powerhouse either, Jac Caglianone’s breakout and Bobby Witt Jr. notwithstanding. I’d be more than happy to start Detmers in this one.
Grant Holmes and Hayden Wesneski are the new entrants on the Yahoo most-added list. Holmes starts at home vs the Diamondbacks. Arizona has the third-best wRC+ against lefties, and the sixth-best wRC+ over the past 30 days. With Holmes’s strikeouts disappearing this season, I don’t love this as a stream. Still, he’s been on a bit of a roll in his last two, shutting down the Marlins in Atlanta and the Yankees in New York. He’s still my least favorite of the streamers we’ve covered so far.
Wesneski starts at home vs Seattle. The Mariners’ offense is somehow much better at home than on the road – they score roughly the same amount of runs in both venues despite their exceptionally pitcher-friendly home park. Wesneski has struck out only 16% of hitters since returning to the majors this year, but with an 11.7% swinging strike rate, you’d have to believe more are coming. The stuff isn’t great, though, with Wesneski managing just a 93 Stuff+ and below-average 4.94 PLV this year. The matchup is good enough that this is a borderline stream rather than a definite don’t-stream, but I’m only starting him if I’m desperate for the volume and missed out on the Manaea-Seymour-Detmers tier.
Deep League Players to Watch
Brett Bateman (TOR) – OF (Yahoo – 1%)
Bateman appears to be the primary beneficiary of the Daulton Varsho trade in Toronto. He’s playing nearly every day since his promotion to the majors after the deadline, primarily starting in center field but also appearing in each corner outfield position. Bateman is a slap-and-run outfielder who hasn’t done much running in the majors yet. He did average just over 39 steals per 162 games over his last three minor league seasons, though, so he could be a sneaky steals play down the stretch. He’s currently chasing everything he sees, swinging at 36% of balls and only 59% of strikes in a tiny sample, but that’s very atypical for Bateman. His minor league chase rate was just 20.7% in Triple-A, and he rarely swung the bat at all at any level before this, with a career minor league swing rate around 37%. If you’re missing the glory days of 2015 Ben Revere, Bateman could be of interest to you down the stretch.
Graphic by Carlos Leano
