Fireworks as the Nationals Ball
Luis García Jr. (WSN): 3-4, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB, SB.
Unlike the events of July 4th, Nats fans didn’t have to wait until after midnight to see Luis García Jr. light up the DC skyline. Garcia started his night by smoking a line drive at 106 MPH that Jose Altuve made a nice diving grab on. The Astros wouldn’t get him out again, as Garcia finished the night with a 3-4, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB, SB line. Garcia’s three hits were all hard-hit balls, with a homer at 105 MPH and singles at 97 and 103 MPH.
Every Garcia home run for the rest of the season will set a new career-high mark for the Nationals infielder. He’s up to 20 on the year, including 7 in his last 11 games. He’s been on fire in that stretch, hitting .455/.489/1.023. Garcia’s having success by making incremental improvements across the board. His pull air rate is up 2 percentage points from last year, which was already a big jump from his previous seasons. He’s added 1.2 MPH of bat speed this year after gaining 0.7 MPH in 2025. His exit velos are up 2 MPH, and he’s added 3 degrees of launch angle, up to 12.3. The combination has given him another point of barrel rate.
Statcast thinks Garcia might be overperforming a bit on his slugging, but it’s otherwise confident in his output. Garcia’s season line sits at .291/.322/.572 despite a .286 BABIP that seems pedestrian for someone with 90th percentile exit velos. Statcast agrees, giving him an even .300 xBA. Garcia’s xSLG is down at .520, which would still be 75 points higher than his previous career high. With the Nats offense currently tops in baseball by runs scored, there’s nothing to dislike about Garcia going forward – he’s even chipped in 4 steals and could easily reach double-digits like the past couple years.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday…
Jo Adell (LAA): 2-4, 2 HR, 3 R, 5 RBI.
Adell and the Angels took it to MacKenzie Gore and the Rangers last night, winning 13-1. Gore struck out Adell in the first, but Adell would get his revenge later in the game. In the fourth inning, Adell sent a thigh-high fastball on the outer part of the plate out to right field for a two-run shot. In the fifth inning, he went down and got a curveball below the zone, and rifled it to left-center at 110 MPH for his 13th homer of the season. Adell’s a better fantasy player than a real-life player – we don’t directly care about his low walk rate or dicey defense – but fantasy managers are hoping for more, as the big game raised his season line to .251/.296/.407.
Vaughn Grissom (LAA): 4-5, 2B, 2 R, 4 RBI.
Grissom also enjoyed his time against the Rangers pitching staff, posting his first four-hit game since September 6th, 2022. While Grissom’s batting average is slightly better with the platoon advantage, he’s lost all his power against southpaws this season. For his career, he has fairly neutral splits, though. Grissom is mostly useful in deeper leagues, but there’s one small sample item to keep your eye on. While Angel Stadium is a neutral venue according to Statcast park factors, Grissom has a .484 OPS at home and an .873 OPS on the road. It’s probably just noise, as Grissom has a .190 BABIP at home, but his plate discipline metrics and isolated slugging are both better on the road as well.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC): 2-4, 2 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, BB.
PCA has heated up with the weather, with his monthly OPSes sitting at .669, .762, 1.249, and 1.529 to start July. Combined with off-the-charts defensive numbers, and he’s already put up 5.8 fWAR in 92 games. Crow-Armstrong struck out in the first and the ninth last night, as that part of his game doesn’t appear to be going anywhere, but it didn’t matter. He got to an 83 MPH splitter out of the zone low and away, and lofted a wall-scraping homer to right field in the third inning. He got a nearly-identical pitch in the fourth and crushed a no-doubter to right-center for his 21st homer of the season. PCA added a walk in the 7th, and came around to score on a Seiya Suzuki three-run homer, as the Cubs beat the Orioles 9-7.
Sal Stewart (CIN): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB.
Stewart and the Reds’ offense combined for four homers in the bottom of the 4th inning. Noelvi Marte led off the inning with a solo blast, before Elly De La Cruz, Stewart, and JJ Bleday went back-to-back-to-back. Stewart’s homer came on an inside-out swing on an inner-half fastball that he muscled out to right field. That was Stewart’s second homer of the night, as he hit another oppo bomb in the third inning off a low-and-away fastball. Stewart set the record for most home runs by a Reds rookie before the All-Star break, surpassing Frank Robinson, although he’s still 16 shy of the overall Reds record set by Ken Griffey Jr. in 1998.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN): 2-3, 2B, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB.
Elly was part of the aforementioned four-homer inning and added a double and two walks. His first at-bat was his only out, a hard-hit groundout to second. He doubled in the third on a 107 MPH line drive to right before coming around to score on Stewart’s first homer of the night. Elly’s two walks to end the night leave him with an even 10% walk rate, as he’s continued to reduce his chase rate, now sitting at 26.4% for a nice 69th percentile rate. The main concern in Elly’s profile this year is an overall increase in passivity at the plate, as his zone swing rate sits at a career-low 58%, leading to a career-high 20.6% called strike rate and an uptick in his overall strikeout rate. Still, with De La Cruz starting to mash lefties this year for the first time in his career, all we need is a bit of a regression to his career line against righties, and we’re poised for a massive season at the plate.
Kazuma Okamoto (TOR): 2-5, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.
Okamoto broke this game open in the top of the first, sending a Logan Webb sinker off the top of the right field wall for a grand slam. Okamoto added a 102 MPH line drive single in the 8th inning, but the game was over at that point as Dylan Cease flirted with a no-hitter for the Blue Jays. Okamoto’s been on a cold streak over his past 10 games, hitting just .179/.220/.333. Six of those games have come in San Francisco and Seattle, though, so I wouldn’t be concerned by the downturn.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR): 1-5, HR, R, 2 RBI.
It didn’t use to be notable when Vladdy Jr. hit a homer, but that’s the kind of season it’s been for the Blue Jays first baseman. Guerrero had three hard-hit balls in this one, including his 9th-inning homer on a middle-middle sinker from Ryan Walker that he sent out to center at 108 MPH. It’s not purely bad luck this year for Guerrero, as he’s given back some of his elite contact quality metrics. He’s down 2 MPH in average exit velo and his hard-hit rate is down 5 percentage points. Still, even if he’s unlikely to produce his 2021, or even 2024, power numbers this season, you can probably expect something closer to last year as his xBA sits 30 points above his current average.
Jake Rogers (DET): 2-2, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB.
There was once a time, back in the pre-Dingler era, where Rogers was a useful low-average masher at catcher for fantasy managers. Rogers pinch-hit for the Tigers’ all-star catcher in the second inning after Dingler injured his hand running the bases (X-rays came back negative). Rogers took the chance to remind us of the good ole days, turning on an up-and-in fastball for a two-run homer. He added a line drive single in the fifth and came around to score, then finished his day by drawing a walk in his last plate appearance.
Justin Crawford (PHI): 2-3, 3B, R, RBI, BB, SB.
It hasn’t been an easy adjustment to the majors for Crawford, as roughly average defense and an 83 wRC+ have left him just barely above replacement level through the midpoint of the season. Crawford ripped a grounder down the right field line in his first plate appearance, turning the 105 MPH batted ball into a triple with his excellent speed. Crawford added a single on a soft grounder in the 8th and drew a (fairly rare) walk before stealing second in the 4th inning. Crawford’s success has come and gone with his BABIP this season. He had a 54 wRC+ in May when he had a .220 BABIP. In April, June, and July, Crawford has had BABIPs of .338, .418, and .412, respectively. His corresponding monthly OPSes were .700, .693, and .792. He’s got 96th percentile sprint speed, which helps his BABIP, but it’s a shaky foundation to build on.
Photo by Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
