Not much has changed since we last spoke on Monday. The American League wild card picture is still a bundled mess in the fight for the No. 6 seed. The 74-73 Cleveland Guardians, who, despite losing two of three contests at Baltimore, still have a one-game advantage over Toronto, who also dropped two of three matches this week against the last-place A’s. On the National League side, the current division leaders are safe. The Phillies and Cubs are still holding the top two wild-card spots by a few games, while the Padres and Diamondbacks continue to swap the No. 6 seed amongst themselves. As I said, nothing has really changed over the last few days, which makes me wonder whether that trend will continue after this weekend’s action.
The top five series below offer a solid mix of AL and NL matchups, with one interleague set at No. 5. Let’s begin.
No. 1: Pirates (74-73) at Cubs (81-66)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Congrats to the Buccos for making the top-five list twice this week after winning their fifth straight series against the White Sox. I ranked their series with Chicago at No. 4 on Monday’s MLB Series Preview, and it turns out that was a good call considering they swept them on the road to climb over .500 for the first time since July 29. More importantly, they are now within realistic striking distance of the final NL wild card at 4 ½ games back of San Diego. Just imagine for a moment if Paul Skenes wasn’t an 11-game loser and actually met his lofty preseason expectations, because a lot falls on him, and he is partly to blame for why Pittsburgh got in this rut to begin with. But don’t worry, Pirates fans, Skenes will have another chance to prove himself against the Cubs on Saturday. The ’25 NL Cy Young winner is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA versus Chicago this season.
Given how well Pittsburgh is playing, and given Chicago’s situation at one game back of Philadelphia for the all-important No. 4 seed and home field advantage in the NLWC, I felt this series was worthy of the top spot. Make no mistake: if the Pirates lose this series, either 2-1 or are swept, their playoff hopes are likely shattered. However, win this series, and gain another game or maybe more on the Snakes and Friars, and perhaps we’re looking at the National League’s final playoff squad in a few weeks. Following this series, Pittsburgh hosts nine straight games at PNC Park (3 vs. Brewers, 3 vs. Royals, 3 vs. Cardinals) and ends the month with a three-game set at Detroit. That’s not a brutal schedule going forward.
These NL Central rivals have split 10 contests this year. The Cubs enter this series on a four-game losing streak after being swept by the Brewers on Wednesday. Keep this in mind as well. The Baby Bears are only 2 ½ and three games ahead of San Diego and Arizona, respectively. Entering September, Chicago led the first team out of the playoff picture by 5 ½ games.
Expected pitching matchups:
Friday: PIT – Wilber Dotel (17 G, 1-4, 4.41 ERA) versus CHC – Shota Imanaga (28 GS, 9-10, 3.91 ERA)
Saturday: PIT – Paul Skenes (29 GS, 10-11, 3.83 ERA) versus CHC – Clay Holmes (15 GS, 6-7, 2.83 ERA)
Sunday: PIT – Bubba Chandler (28 G, 27 GS, 7-9, 4.25 ERA) versus CHC – Matthew Boyd (19 GS, 8-4, 4.03 ERA)
No. 2: Phillies (82-65) at Atlanta (86-61)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
This was certainly No. 1 on the list had Philadelphia not lost on Thursday courtesy of a Cam Smith solo homer off Phils closer Jhoan Duran to give the Astros a 2-1 victory and series win at Citizens Bank Park. However, with that loss countered by Atlanta’s 3-1 victory over Tampa Bay, we’re officially in a situation where even if the Phillies sweep this weekend set at Truist Park, they’d still be one game back in the NL East, and technically two behind given that Georgia’s squad clinched the season series last weekend.
Saying that, plenty is still on the line for both clubs. Atlanta has recently slipped in the race for the National League’s best record. After a 4-5 start to September, they now trail Los Angeles by 4 ½ games for the No. 2 seed and a bye to the NLDS. Heading into this month, they were only a half-game behind the Blue Crew. If Atlanta has any shot at catching the Dodgers or the Brewers (currently five games ahead of Atlanta), then a series win at home this weekend is probably a must. Next week, they visit Wrigley Field to face the Cubs and Daikin Park to battle the Astros. They’ll return home for three contests against the Reds and end the year with a three-game set at Miami. Certainly, not a cakewalk. Most importantly for Atlanta, a series victory this weekend should give them enough distance between themselves and Philly to at least feel comfortable in the NL East race.
Like Atlanta’s final two-week schedule, Philadelphia’s end to the regular season won’t be easy. After a road trip at Washington and New York next week to face the Nationals and Mets, they end their season on a six-game home stand. However, those half-dozen contests will be against the top two clubs from both leagues, the Brewers and Rays. With the Cubs right on their heels, we should be in for a great finish in the National League wild card race. Four clubs within four games battling for three spots. It doesn’t get much better than that.
Friday’s opener pairs Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (29 GS, 6-10, 4.76 ERA) versus Atlanta’s Chris Sale (25 GS, 14-9, 2.10 ERA). Nola’s numbers as a whole aren’t impressive, but his 3.10 second-half ERA over 10 starts is more than 2.5 runs better than his first-half earned run average of 5.75. He’s figured some things out and has provided Philly with a capable No. 4 starter in the rotation.
No. 3: Astros (75-72) at Rays (87-59)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
It’s starting to appear that the Astros might actually win the AL West and claim a winning record in the process. We all know that neither Houston nor anyone else in their division has played good baseball this year. The Astros -40 run differential is the best in the AL West, and that should be all you need to agree with my previous statement. At season’s end, this division will go down in history as one of the worst statistically of all-time. It could be the worst, and you wouldn’t get an argument from me.
However, to Houston’s credit, they haven’t had a losing month since April, and are 5-4 so far in September. If they end up claiming the division crown with another winning month in their pocket, they would end up being one of potentially eight MLB franchises that could say they had five or more winning months in 2026. Take that for what you want, but the point is, regardless of the Astros’ dreadful run differential, they are still a winning team with a great shot at earning a bye to the ALDS as the league’s No. 2 seed. Entering this weekend, the AL Central-leading White Sox are a half-game ahead of the ’22 World Series Champs for the league’s second seed and a first-round bye.
Both Tampa Bay and Houston are coming off impressive road wins at the homes of the top two clubs in the NL East. As mentioned earlier, the Rays won two of three contests in Atlanta, and Houston took Wednesday’s rubber game in Philadelphia. The only similarity between these teams right now is that they both have a three-game lead in their respective divisions. What’s crazy to think, especially for the Rays, who have led the AL East practically all season long, is that if these clubs fade down the stretch and lose their respective divisions, then the wild card is where they’ll be. That is why this is a far more important three-game set between division leaders than some might consider at first glance.
If division races aren’t your thing, then maybe the Triple Crown Watch is. This series pairs the top two American League MVP candidates. Houston’s Triple Crown hopeful Yordan Alvarez and Tampa Bay’s All-Star third baseman, Junior Caminero. I know most pundits believe Alvarez is the current MVP, and believe me, if he becomes only the second Triple Crown winner this century, he’s mine as well, given that Houston is also a playoff contender. The numbers favor Alvarez over Caminero, and even though Yordan has played over 20 games in left field this year, he’s recognized as a DH, so from that standpoint, obviously Junior has the edge. This is going to be fascinating to see if Alvarez makes up ground in the AL home run race (Caminero leads 39-38). The last time these guys faced off was in an early July series at Houston. They both put on a show, and combined for five homers in three games. Also, keep an eye on the Alvarez versus Chandler Simpson batting title race. Alvarez leads Simpson .310 to .308 entering Friday. I love that Alvarez is taking on a pair of his biggest threats for the Triple Crown in this series. That’s exciting stuff.
What’s making the American League interesting is that no division race is over. Every division lead is separated by three or fewer games, and given the entertaining finish for the final wild card spot, there’s a lot more going on in the AL as far as playoff races are concerned than what’s taking place in the Senior Circuit.
Speaking of the AL wild card…
No. 4: Orioles (71-76) at Blue Jays (73-74)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
I said on Monday that if Baltimore defeated Cleveland and inched closer in the wild card race, then this series with Toronto would likely end up somewhere in this weekend’s top-five list. Sure enough, the O’s won that series over the Guardians, 2-1, and are now three games behind for the No. 6 seed. Remember, the Orioles were only a half-game out of the wild card at the start of September. Then came a six-game losing streak to begin the month, and that is why they have fallen a few games off the pace, with three teams to overtake. One of the clubs they need to pass is the Blue Jays. This is a Toronto squad that had won three consecutive series heading into this week and looked ready to snag the third AL wild card spot until they dropped the ball in Sacramento and lost two of three contests to the American League’s second-worst team. The Jays are one game behind the Guardians, one game ahead of Texas, and two ahead of their opponent this weekend.
Toronto has a 4-3 advantage over Baltimore in their head-to-head matchups this year. That means they have six more contests remaining, which include a three-game set at Camden Yards from Sept. 21-23. Without getting too far ahead of ourselves, let’s focus on this series and the likely pitching matchups. I’m going with Nick Pollack’s recently released SP Streamer rankings.
Friday: BAL – Chris Bassitt (17 G, 15 GS, 6-5, 4.96 ERA) versus TOR – Max Scherzer (14 GS, 2-7, 6.03 ERA)
Saturday: BAL – Kyle Bradish (28 GS, 7-13, 3.91 ERA) versus TOR – Dylan Cease (27 GS, 10-5, 2.40 ERA)
Sunday: BAL – Trevor Rogers (27 GS, 10-9, 4.15 ERA) versus TOR – José Soriano (29 GS, 12-7, 3.48 ERA)
No. 5: Rangers (72-75) at Diamondbacks (78-69)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
The lone interleague series on the top five list this weekend pairs two clubs that would fall short of the playoffs if the season ended today. Texas is coming off a series loss at Seattle despite a dominant one-hit and 12-strikeout performance from Jacob deGrom in Thursday’s finale. After six innings and 92 pitches, Rangers manager Skip Schumaker pulled deGrom with a 3-0 lead, and then the game was lost following reliever Jakob Junis’s four runs allowed in the seventh, ultimately leading to a one-run defeat. Apparently deGrom was replaced because he had groin tightness, but who knows? These days, especially after watching Kevin Cash pull SP Nick Martinez from a scoreless game on Thursday after throwing 6 ⅓ shutout innings on a mere 68 pitches versus Atlanta, I don’t fully trust a whole lot of what managers say after the game. I know I wouldn’t put my faith in one of the weakest bullpens around (the Rangers’ 4.46 reliever ERA ranks 22nd in MLB) over my ace, sore groin or not, in a pivotal September contest. Anyway, Texas is 11 games under .500 on the road, and after this series they play nine straight contests at home before ending the year with a three-game set at Minnesota.
For about half the season now, Arizona’s only likely ticket to the postseason has been via the wild card. They haven’t been close in the NL West race since a 12-15 record in June knocked them 12 ½ games back of Los Angeles for the division lead. Since that time, the Snakes have made up one game on the Dodgers and are on the verge of being officially eliminated from NL West contention at 11 ½ games behind the four-time defending division champs. All they have left is a potential NL wild card spot, and before they can think about catching the Phillies or Cubs for one of the top two positions (currently four and 3 ½ games back of those clubs, respectively), they’ll first need to pass San Diego. The Padres have a three-game series this weekend at the 62-85 Giants and then head to Colorado to play four contests against the last-place Rockies. This is important because Arizona, who plays much better at home (41-31 record) than they do on the road (37-38) begins a nine-game homestand this weekend before traveling to Colorado and San Diego to end the regular season.
A lot of playoff contenders will be eyeing this important interleague set.
Missed the Top 10
Rockies (55-91) at Tigers (67-79): Three games
Angels (56-90) at Nationals (67-81): Three games
Mets (68-78) at Yankees (84-62): Three games
Royals (65-82) at Red Sox (80-67): Three games
Dodgers (89-57) at Marlins (72-75): Three games
Reds (69-77) at Brewers (91-56): Three games
Guardians (74-73) at Twins (69-77): Three games
White Sox (75-71) at Cardinals (72-75): Three games
Mariners (69-78) at A’s (59-88): Three games
Padres (78-68) at Giants (62-85): Three games
