Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup 4/12: Ortizinal Cooking

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Luis L. Ortiz (CLE) vs KCR (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 100 pitches.

I’ve been awfully disinterested in Luis L. Ortiz entering this year. I remember him displaying better control of his cutter and slider last season for the Pirates, but the whiffs were hard to find. Spring brought many questions about his ability to get through frames efficiently and the overall package was more ratio-focused with a low floor that I inclined to hand-wave.

Imagine my surprise when he obliterated Kansas City Saturday with a Gallows Pole via 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 100 pitches (W). The slider was competitive down against RHB, cutters found the zone plenty upstairs, and the four-seamer found whiffs galore. Finally! Four-seamer whiffs!

The reason is simple. Ortiz has a great HAVAA that suggests success up in the zone and he hasn’t been able to so with regularity. Here? 63% HiLoc% with 8/37 whiffs. IT’S THAT EASY. I’m not kidding, if Ortiz can sit upstairs with his 95/96 mph four-seamer upstairs at a 60%+ rate for the rest of the season, he’d be in the Top 40 SP, easily. I don’t think he’s suddenly figured it out, sadly. It’s one game for a slinger who has displayed volatility throughout his career. Sure, it’s possible this is the start of the trend that sets him apart, and maybe there’s something at play as we also saw at least two inches of extra drop on both his changeup and slider.

Let’s do this. Ortiz gets the Pirates next. How about we pick him up for that one and see where we’re at? We hold as long as the approach sticks around.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:

 

Ben Brown (CHC) @ LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.

How. That fastball is so hittable and was hurled down the pipe with reckless abandon and the Dodgers failed to take advantage. Props to Brown for the 75% strike rate on his curveball, but going two-pitch with 2/3 hittable four-seamers and surviving against the Dodgers is just…what?! And zero BB for Mr. BB?! I’m giving you the Gold Star because this is just so confounding. CONGRATS FOR YOUR CONFOUNDING NATURE.

Jackson Jobe (DET) @ MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.

I’m sorry Eno, he’s not going the ultra four-seamer route, but instead the cutter-focused route and trying his best to confound batters into forcing them to do more than go fastball hunting. It’s kinda working? The line is great (Thanks Koufax!) but this wasn’t a polished performance. He had donut command of throwing cutters, sinkers, and curves down the pipe mixed with four-seamers on the edges and out of the zone and a changeup that went just 5/13 strikes and was featured more than the dastardly curve. Weird, I know. He’s still figuring all of it out and I hope this start gave him the confidence to throw the cutter without fear. Those were terrible locations and to see a 0.193 xwOBAcon on this pitch (PL’s better version, mind you) is a great sign. Give him time, he has great stuff, he’s showcasing good enough control, now it’s about precision and sequencing. Nick, this was the Twins. WELL FINE. Plenty of Blame it on the Twins here.

Kyle Hart (SDP) vs COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 74 pitches.

There’s the Toby we want so badly. But this was Rockie Road. Okay, fair. He’s still struggling with the changeup and it’s sweeper-city against a poor offense. Those 89/90 mph heaters are not special. I don’t have the…courage to start Kyle against the Astros.

Tyler Anderson (LAA) @ HOU (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.

As expected, Anderson went changeup heavy against a RHB-focused lineup and paired with the high heater, he nearly made it through six full frames. Too bad the cutter was off at just 8/18 strikes or he would have cruised even further. He’s a decent Toby, y’all.

Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 80 pitches.

He’s so hard to hit. It’s fun to see him trying to make the sinker work, too, even if he’s making a few too many mistakes with it to RHB at the moment. It’s interesting to see seven punchouts despite just 11 breakers in total (you’d think those would do most of the final blows), and I wonder how it changes over time. And yes, he’ll go six frames soon enough.

Richard Fitts (BOS) @ CHW (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 76 pitches.

We saw well-spotted sliders and sweepers to RHB + good sinkers up-and-in to RHB, and the White Sox did the rest. Unfortunately, Fitts hit the IL right after this start with shoulder pain and that could be all we see of him for a while. Sigh. He look so dang good in the spring, too. The version we got was a Toby and it was fine, just…I wanted more for the guy. I hope he’s alright and you can move on across your teams. If you have the IL spot, sure, use it, but drop him the second you run out of room.

Chad Patrick (MIL) @ ARI (ND) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 77 pitches.

Hey, are you seeing something that gets you stoked about Patrick? He throws a lot of cutters for strikes? Sure, that’s a thing. Anything else? Uhhhh? Exactly.

Bryan Woo (SEA) vs TEX (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.

The four-seamer was fantastic, the sinker got outs, and he’s working on everything else. What else is new? We’ll take these great outings @TEX as I twiddle my thumbs in hope.

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) @ STL (W) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 95 pitches.

That sinker command was terrible and it led to Sánchez displaying his greatest weakness across 6.1 frames. So many heaters down the pipe, though the slider and changeup weren’t so much better. When Sánchez can comfortably sit under a hit per inning, you’ll have your breakout.

J.T. Ginn (ATH) vs NYM (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 89 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! Ginn got the start and did what he did last year – pump 60%+ sinkers with a flurry of sliders and hope for the best. Except he’s better now. Okay, fair. Ginn added almost two ticks to his heater, now sitting right below 95 mph instead of 93 mph last season, helping add an extra inch of drop and churn outs on the sinker. The slider isn’t great with plenty of meatballs over the plate, but if that sinker can stay low against LHB and inside to RHB, he can go 5+ innings without a ton of damage. I’m curious if that slider can get better to keep the strikeouts coming. Not the worst stream against the Brewers.

Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 81 pitches.

Abbott made his season debut and the result was as good as anyone could hope for. A little strange, though. The heater was down to 91/92 mph (not 93 mph), but added 1.4″ of vert that I’m not sure sticks around. He also moved away from breakers to favor 32% changeups against RHB, which was not the pitch it needed to be. Just 50% strikes and 1/24 whiffs is not a strong slowball and I’m curious how Abbott looks when he faces more LHB after throwing just seven pitches against them here. I’m not running to the wire to pick him up with the Orioles ahead, though I am curious if the velocity can return while holding onto the 17.6″ of iVB. That would be cool.

Roki Sasaki (LAD) vs CHC (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 81 pitches.

To admit this is the most successful start of Roki’s career thus far is weird. It’s the first game of five frames and his slider is still an atrocity. If you’re not worried about Sasaki, you’re not paying attention.

Chris Paddack (MIN) vs DET (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 93 pitches.

That White Sox start really left a bad taste in our mouths, though facing more LHB helps Padddack plenty with a larger focus on his split-changeup, and it came  through here. The four-seamer was also much better, sitting 94 mph (normal) and far more precise than usual. And yet, you see the low CSW. The breakers are the major weakness that hitters pass upon as they know to go fastball hunting. He survived against the Tigers, though I have worries against tougher teams, especially with the fastball and changeup precision coming with very few chases on the zone on what should have been whiffs. He’s still lacking that last piece.

David Peterson (NYM) @ ATH (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 89 pitches.

Atta boy Peterson! No nausea this time and better weather meant 92 mph heaters with the sinker working against LHB and everything else fighting to work against RHB. He didn’t have his changeup, forcing more sliders and curves against RHB that worked well (the Athletics hitters refused to engage with curve and it was great) and there’s your ball game. I like Peterson as a Toby who could be a Holly, though he is a bit more hittable than I like and slightly volatile with his secondaries between outings. At the very least, stream him for the Cardinals and go from there.

Chase Dollander (COL) @ SDP (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.

Away from Colorado and look at that! Dollander looks like the exciting prospect you want him to be, even against a good lineup like the Padres. Maybe I should embrace the road stream of Dollander, but then again, his change and curve are heavily lacking and his cutter/fastball command is still a little wonky. But at least it’s a great attack angle at 97/98 mph, right? If only he could have a 55%+ HiLoc… True. This was 31%, the previous outing well under 50%. There’s a stud in here at 60%+ HiLoc and the cutter falling underneath, even if the curve and change don’t catch up, and even in Coors. Maybe. I don’t have faith we’ll see that from the Rook anytime soon, though. I’m avoiding.

Will Warren (NYY) vs SFG (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 91 pitches.

Look at that! Not just a Win, but a King Cole to top it off. And get this. Warren was a 0.9 HAVAA with 15.4 iVB on his four-seamer during his first start of the year. Two starts later? 1.4 HAVAA with 17.3″ of vert. Wait what. YEAH. He’s also at 6.9 feet of extension and the notion of Warren as a sinker/sweeper arm without a good fastball may be a thing of the past. I can’t tell you this will stick, sadly, but what if it does? Then you have a legit approach for RHB (sinker/sweeper) and a legit weapon for LHB + hope for a change/curve combo to support it to allow the sweeper a bit of a break. These are the fun moments that could be nothing or everything. Ugh, why must they insist we wait nearly a week between SP outings? Grab him for the start against the Rays with a decent floor if it doesn’t return.

AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) @ TBR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.

AJSS was sent to the minors after this one, which looks really frustrating at first given the line, but you should realize he is not executing his four-seamer as well as he needs to. Just 57% strikes for a pitch that would dominate if located upstairs (and at 94/95 mph, not 96+), while he doesn’t have a reliable breaking ball. He can’t be a four-seamer/splitter arm for long, let alone one without a strike-focused heater. Make way for Strider, y’all.

Martín Pérez (CHW) vs BOS (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches.

Welp, the cutter command left him and he nearly muscled his way through five with changeups. The Vargas Rule could return at some point and I’ll be here to tell you when.

Corbin Burnes (ARI) vs MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 88 pitches.

Are we at the point where we’re okay with a PQS from Burnes. Absolutely not. Even with a 1.00 WHIP? NO. Yeah, I agree. The cutter is still not the CSW darling of old without the drop we want (12″ of vert) and the slider + curve are still lagging behind at 3/25 whiffs between them. Burnes, please figure this out.

Michael Lorenzen (KCR) @ CLE (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 85 pitches.

A Philly from Lorenzen makes this a start where no one is happy. I get the sense Lorenzen is the most forgotten about starter in fantasy and it makes sense. Still, you can see the QS potential, even if it’s often a PQS. I wonder if the Royals will ever replace him with Noah Cameron.

Miles Mikolas (STL) vs PHI (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 82 pitches.

Get this. Mikolas’ punishment came off of… His slider? Uhhh, no. His four-seamer. Oh. That’s really obvious. SURE IS! Still not sure why he elects to throw the terrible pitch away to LHB, but the man is giving his team a chance with three runs in five frames. So that’s cool I guess. Keep going 30%+ sliders, please.

Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) vs TOR (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 73 pitches.

Seeing a splitter look like a changeup middle-away to opposite handed batters is not a sign of a pitcher feeling it. There’s a Toby in here and I’m willing to bet Sugano needs a moment to adapt to pitching in the states as many Asian players do in their first few months. Take a step back for now.

Ryan Gusto (HOU) vs LAA (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 72 pitches.

Does he have that spunk? That pizzazz? That… I can’t think of another word. Sorry. I dig the 18-19″ of vert on the heater but the rest? Not so much. If he had excellent extension or a better attack angle or more than 93/94 mph velocity, I think I could latch onto this hoping his cutter or sweeper gets better over time, but for now…meh. At least the four-seamer will miss some bats if he can keep locating it upstairs.

Kumar Rocker (TEX) @ SEA (L) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 68 pitches.

He’s still sinkers over four-seamers (dunno why), he threw four sliders, four changeups, eighteen curves, and 50% strikes between the secondaries. Sooooo- Yes, this isn’t an exciting pitcher to chase. He’s not polished or refined, nor displaying the upside you want. That sinker is just 95 mph, y’all, not the 97 + four-seamer we saw in the spring. Why chase this?

Andrew Heaney (PIT) @ CIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 89 pitches.

Yes, a grand slam did a number on Heaney. This wasn’t as well commanded of a game as we saw against the Yankees and he’s still right under 90 mph, but the curve and change are still relatively down and he’s generally in a better place than we normally see. It could still work against the Nationals, even if I don’t necessarily want to.

Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs WSN (W) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.

What has become of my dear Sandy. His velocity is at 97 mph (hit 99.2 mph, that’s cool with me) but he couldn’t locate sinkers and changeups for strikes and he became over-reliant on the slider to get him through at-bats. Maybe there was some extra rust given his paternity leave and mourning what happened in the D.R. and let’s keep starting him without thinking much about it.

Bowden Francis (TOR) @ BAL (L) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 96 pitches.

Ah, so the first time I say “Fine, start him, I guess it works even if I don’t quite get it,” that’s when it doesn’t work? There is no bridge pitch between four-seamer and splitter, meaning the heater’s 61% strikes and splitter’s 52% strikes aren’t enough to cut it. Then again, Francis cruised through four, allowed a two-run shot in the fifth, then had two outs in the sixth before a solo shot, walk, wild pitch, infield single, double. So close. Guess we’re just ignoring this and still starting against the Mariners, eh?

Trevor Williams (WSN) @ MIA (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 81 pitches.

Say it with me. #NeverTrevor.

Jordan Hicks (SFG) @ NYY (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 94 pitches.

Bleeegh. Stupid Yankees ruining all our fun. The weather was grim to put it lightly and I’m still thrilled to see Hicks pumping 98/99 mph at times (settled down at 96 and change, but, you know, weather) and he couldn’t control his splitter and sweeper. I’m not shocked given the circumstance and I’m still very much holding Hicks, even against the Phillies. He’s still a great starter, just a really bad situation here.

 

Game of the Day

 

Chris Sale vs. Joe Boyle – Uhhhh, he’s here?! I wonder if it’s to give the rotation an extra day of rest or if he’s replacing Littell. Just throw strikes. PLEASE.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)