Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup – Webbie Downer

Nick Pollack reviews every starting pitcher performance from Monday.

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 10 am-12 am ET.  

Logan Webb (SF) @ MIA (L) – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 105 pitches.

I want to take a moment to recognize that Logan Webb gave us a wondrous opening outing of the season with 12 strikeouts and hasn’t done a whole lot since to get us excited, including tonight’s 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 105 pitches line against the Marlins. The Marlins! Like Max Martin, Webb’s always been a hit machine and 2023 looks to be no different, especially with a new slider that misses bats far less than its 2021 counterpart.

The good news here is that the changeup is still fantastic and the sinker will always get called strikes (15 tonight!). It’ll speak to better ERA days in the future, just with a WHIP that will make you a little frustrated as the hit-per-nine won’t sit under 7.5 again as the strikeout rate likely hangs out in the 22% range. He’s a premium Toby and that’s okay. Acceptance is the first step toward happiness.


Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:


Max Fried (ATL) @ SD (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 79 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Despite returning from the IL, Fried made easy work through five frames against the Padres with elite command as he’s clearly back and ready to help. Thanks Max, we desperately needed your stability once again.

Jacob deGrom (TEX) @ KC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 58 pitches.

He was looking like his normal self until he pulled himself from the game with a wrist injury. He’ll get reevaluated tomorrow as we get our monthly reminder of the true nature of deGrom. We can’t escape it.

Hunter Greene (CIN) vs TB (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 47 pitches.

Greene was removed early after taking a grounder to the shin. Reports are optimistic he’d make his next start and let’s be honest – one strikeout in three frames wasn’t showcasing the best of Greene. You may have escaped this one before it got worse. His heater was down 2.5 ticks already without a single whiff in 21 thrown. Hmmmmmm.

Jordan Lyles (KC) vs TEX (L) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 95 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! That’s an early contender for a Minimalist Score at just 10, failing to earn more than two whiffs on any pitch. So you’re saying we shouldn’t buy a Lyles start with 60% fastballs at 19% CSW. You don’t need me, do you? Probably not, Chat GPT wrote that. OH NO. It’s been a good run, y’all.

Merrill Kelly (ARI) @ STL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 85 pitches.

Solid stuff from Kelly as the Cardinals haven’t been hitting too well for a bit now. Now it’s the Padres + Coors and I think I’m still out (six whiffs & 18% CSW, y’all). His change went 2/23 CSW for a 9% clip. That’s atrocious.

Rich Hill (PIT) @ COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 105 pitches.

Ugggggh OF COURSE. It’s like the powers of Freeland were transferred over to Hill. And now he hosts the Reds + faces the Nationals, creating temptation for fantasy managers everywhere. Don’t. DON’T.

Cristian Javier (HOU) vs TOR (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 97 pitches.

Hmmmm. He’s still not there, is he? A sub 30% CSW on both fastball and slider is so unusual for Javier and he’s not getting the same results on his stuff as we’ve seen. But hey, that’s a strikeout per inning with a 1.00 WHIP, 1.80 ERA, and a Win, so does it really matter? We keep starting him and hoping the arsenal gets better.

Hayden Wesneski (CHC) @ OAK (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 90 pitches.

That’s a King Cole for Wesneski as he’s earned himself some confidence moving forward. The breaker finally showed its true colors, returning a stupid good 49% CSW across 41% usage, and before you blame it on the Athletics, realize that the A’s messed up a fair number of starters already this season. He gets the Dodgers next before two cushy dates with the Marlins and Nationals and I think we have to hold through it now that the breaker has come alive. H*ck, that Dodgers start may be worth your while, too. IT’S TIME TO BELIEVE.

Jalen Beeks (TB) @ CIN (L) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 41 pitches.

This was Cooper Criswell’s game as he followed Beeks and Kevin Kelly for 4.0 IP of 4 ER ball. And no one rejoiced.

Shohei Ohtani (LAA) @ BOS (ND) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 31 pitches.

This was dumb as Ohtani was pulled following a rain delay where they should have delayed the game an extra two hours or so to begin with. Sigh. This is why we can’t have nice things.

Ryan Weathers (SD) vs ATL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.

Do I like what Weathers brings to the table? Not really. His changeup wasn’t as impressive as I’ve seen, failing to get it down, but he did avoid many mistakes with his heater and slider and he gave the Padres a chance. I hate this for fantasy teams, though. It’s just so…boring.

Corbin Burnes (MIL) @ SEA (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 85 pitches.

Aces gonna ace but leave the game in the sixth with a minor pec strain. He could still make his next start, and at least this explains the few strikeouts and generally being “off” across the opening weeks.

Jesús Luzardo (MIA) vs SF (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.

Blegh. At least the skills are still intact with 30%+ CSW on sliders and changeups, but the heater wasn’t nearly as effective as we’ve seen at just 1/41 whiffs and only 17% CSW, locating far too many in the middle of the zone. He still gave you six strikeouts but yeah, he’s much better than this. Let’s brush it off and move on.

Chris Flexen (SEA) vs MIL (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 78 pitches.

At least this was much better than last time. So that’s cool. Maybe if he gets—Suitman whispers in my ear. Cardinals? Uh huh…Jays?! Astros?! Okay okay, you can stop breathing into my ear now, I get it.

Jack Flaherty (STL) vs ARI (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.

Soooooo the fastball was 92.7 mph (not 93/94) and the slider went 0/25 whiffs. Sigh. And here I was, just getting excited about Flaherty again. BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD Y’ALL.

Dustin May (LAD) vs NYM (ND) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.

Womp womp. The whiffs are still missing, leading to just one strikeout (HAISTBMBWT?!) and all kinds of disappointment. I think we have to stick with it as one day it’ll click and he could be so dang fun to roster. No idea when that will be, but it’s the Cubs next and you gotta do that. Can’t wait to take that TIARA off this year.

Brayan Bello (BOS) vs LAA (L) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 72 pitches.

Don’t judge Bello harshly for this one. It was a Still ILL to begin with, but it was also horrific weather and a terrible showcase of who he actually is. Considering they let him toss 72 pitches, I’m actually okay if you want to chance it against the Brewers next. That said, I’d prefer to play it safe until he performs exceptionally.

Kyle Muller (OAK) vs CHC (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 13 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.

Oakland, Muller needs more time in the minors to figure this out. Give Mason Miller his shot dangit. Stop…Mulling this over.

David Peterson (NYM) @ LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 94 pitches.

This feels like the season where those who allow 6 ER also earn the Gallows Pole because we can’t have nice things. I was shocked to see his changeup be the star of the show at 46% CSW, but I’m still left wanting from his slider, which used to be everything as it shrugged for 29% CSW and was hung an awful ton. At least it gets easier against the Giants up next and I guess that’s okay…? I don’t expect this changeup to return, though.

Kevin Gausman (TOR) @ HOU (L) – 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.

The first inning was a disaster. Otherwise, Gausman was fantastic, but yeah that first inning was an atrocity and we’ll never speak of it again.

Kyle Freeland (COL) vs PIT (L) – 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 61 pitches.

Is this because I gave in and put Freeland at the very bottom of the Questionable Start tier? I DID THIS FOR ALL Y’ALL. I made the carousel stop and put an end to this ruse. You’re welcome.


Game of the Day


Spencer Strider vs. Blake Snell – Strider is always a joy and I want to see Snell get his breakers into the zone. Taj vs. Lodolo is awfully exciting as well.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 am ET Monday through Friday.

Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

3 responses to “Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup – Webbie Downer”

  1. BabboB says:

    Not sure I understand how Burnes straining his pec tonight explains his performance in his previous starts.

  2. IdliAmin says:

    The thing with Davey Pete’s changeup, which surprised me, too: he’s changed the shape of it (as well as the shape of his sinker—more Vmov, less Hmov). His changeup, not his slider, was considered his “out” pitch when he was a prospect—the slider kind of came out of nowhere. He doesn’t have great raw stuff, so he can’t live in the zone (either he issues free passes, or he gives up hard contact), but IF he can get his slider AND his changeup going, and use the four-seamer and sinker for called strikes, I think he could sort of be a lefty Cookie Carrasco (circa 2016-7, not 2023).

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