Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Coleman Crow (MIL) @ MIA (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 77 pitches.
We had a surprise in Milwaukee on Friday night as prospect Coleman Crow got the pearl for his MLB debut and did a great job into the sixth inning against the Marlins: 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 77 pitches (ND). It’s unlikely he gets another shot, but let’s say he’s out on the wire and getting more time later in the season. Will he be an add when we see him again?
If you just looked at the heaters, it would be an easy nope. He sits 91/92 mph (could be lower without debut adrenaline) and while he has some good sinker movement and a four-seamer at a 1.6 “HAVAA with his low arm angle, they are far from impressive. The real skill is his feel for spin. It starts with a cutter that has vicious lateral movement into the hands of LHB at 87 mph, while the sweeper ranged from 18-22” of sweep at 80 mph. Hot DANG. The curveball is a slower offering around 75 mph, but it’s a true hook at 15″+ drop and sweep, making it as gorgeous of a two-plane yacker you’ll ever see.
He’s a kitchen-sink arm who hopes to sneak in the fastballs, get outs with the cutter, and hopes to locate the breakers right so they aren’t able to get slapped when batters are out on their front foot. Keep in mind, with all their movement, he only returned three whiffs on the game (0/8 on the sweeper, 1/18 on the curve!), with an overall 16% putaway rate. It’s fun to watch, but the lack of velocity hurts and is hard to bank on for consistent production.
I can see this working against poor lineups (sup Miami!) if we had a larger sample of games with Coleman displaying the same skill set (hard to know exactly what he’d look like consistently at this point), and I want to tamp the hype you may be seeing about the amount of spin he gets on his pitches. The lack of velocity is a major issue that will hold him back, as fun as it can be to watch.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Ranger Suarez (BOS) vs DET (ND) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 93 pitches.
Now we’re getting somewhere. Suarez’s changeup, curveball, and cutter are up two ticks with more dramatic movement on the slowball and he did a phenomenal job teasing Tigers hitters with the pitch, even if it didn’t find a ton of strikes. It set up the strikes found by his curveball and outs generated by the four-seamer, sinker, and cutter. I’m tempted to get back in against the Yankees next, where the changeup will likely perform a bit better.
Casey Mize (DET) @ BOS (ND) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 94 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! Pitching in Fenway is no fun and this is a glorious outing, fueled by his slider and splitter getting Mize to two strikes, where the four-seamer, oddly enough, became the weapon of choice for most of those strikeouts. I’m a bit skeptical of this performance – can he really go 12/13 slider strikes to LHB and 71% splitter strikes? Can his four-seamer continue to work upstairs? – but maybe worth the QS shot against the Brewers next time out? I’m not sold that this is the arsenal we want.
Martín Pérez (ATL) @ PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
Uhhh, that’s a Gold Star for Pérez, who tossed six shutout frames a week after getting DFA’d by the same dang team. He did his normal Pérez thing schtick of pitch separation with fastballs, cutters, and changeups, and it wouldn’t be wise to reconsider Pérez at this time. After all, it was a 7-0 game and he gave Weiss (yes, I DO know Atlanta’s manager!) no reason to pull him before the end of the sixth. This is an outlier.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs KCR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I could wait another start, but come on. You’re not benching him. He’s so good.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs BAL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches.
Nick, you said he wasn’t good. Well, I said I couldn’t trust that he’d be good as his command has been terrible for most of the year and here we have his signature cutter going 54% strikes… but the pitch returned 20%+ SwStr, alongside boht the changeup and curveball, which were as good as I’ve seen all year at the bottom of the zone to LHB. Sadly, the dream of the four-seamer returning 18″ of vert consistently is dying more with each start (15″ here), but it’s nice to see that Bibee is able to spin a solid outing still. I’m not a believer, but I recognize he’s a 15-teamer HIPSTER and has a chance to be worthwhile in 12-teamers. It’s too risky to me.
José Soriano (LAA) vs SDP (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 99 pitches.
He’s obviously killing it with a 33% strikeout rate and just one run in five starts. He also has 3.0 Hits-Per-Nine and an 11% walk rate, rooted in his sinker’s volatility. The biggest change from last year has been his increased four-seamer usage, which returned 32% called strikes here, saving him from himself and allowing the curveball to strike batters out. Thing is, Soriano now holds a 29% putaway rate on the year. That’s absurdly unsustainable. I’m still selling high and if no one is buying, then I enjoy for this however long it lasts.
Chris Bassitt (BAL) @ CLE (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 100 pitches.
Oh dang, he survived? It’s a Dusty Donut just for the ERA, but I guess it’s worth it if you chased it…? I wanted a QS. Yeah, we all did. Move on from Bassitt.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) @ SEA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 88 pitches.
Aces gonna…what is this. It’s 31% foul balls, that’s what. Well that’s dumb. Why didn’t he just miss their bats instead? Why are you asking me? I DUNNO, IT’S ANNOYING. He located the slider piece super well, too. Really not sure how the Mariners made it happen. Whatareyagonnado.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) @ COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. When you’re an ace, the opponent does. Not. Matter. Also, we saw 77% strikes and 4/13 whiffs on the slider. That’s the good stuff. You know, I wonder if Glasnow would be a guy who would be immune to Coors. He has enough movement already, and his extension + velocity are the two elements Coors doesn’t affect (or at least, less than the movement). Welp, that’s not gonna happen.
Davis Martin (CHW) @ ATH (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches.
So, uh, maybe we trust a Vargas Rule here from Martin. I don’t think this is believable at all, but if you have him rostered, are you really going to stop starting him with @ARI up next?
Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs TBR (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.
He’s slowly getting his footing, this time with high strike rates on everything and getting the walk rate down as it should. The final piece of the puzzle is executing his two-strike offerings, as he held a 11% putaway rate that is far away from the 20% league average, let alone for a pitcher with his incredible stuff, which now includes a new slider that isn’t quite a sweeper at 9″ of sweep, but at 88 mph that thing is glorious. And guess what? He didn’t get it away to RHB as much as he wanted to. He’s destined to wrangle it (he threw it 44% of the time when in two-strikes vs. RHB) and the strikeouts will flow. Buy low if the window hasn’t closed yet.
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs CIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 94 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Nice to have an easy one with the Reds Carpet that went exactly as it should.
Brandon Williamson (CIN) @ MIN (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.
Ehhhh, to live the Toby life, you gotta hold back on granting free passes. The good news? Williamson’s changeup is getting relied upon more often. The bad? Not the best locations and the cutter wasn’t consistently spotted. I’m still not in and I think he’ll get replaced before Lowder.
Michael Soroka (ARI) vs TOR (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 94 pitches.
So that’s a 2.78 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 30% strikeout rate through four games with the White Sox up next. And you were worried he’d get replaced once Kelly returned. The curveball is still fantastic and the cutter is making a difference now to both LHB and RHB. That’s hot. Let’s keep riding this for as long as it’ll go.
Michael Wacha (KCR) @ NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.
Oh dang, this Vargas Rule is COOKIN’. Unlike his changeup and its 52% strike rate, oddly enough. He gets the Orioles next, and yeah, we gotta keep putting him in our lineups.
Nick Martinez (TBR) @ PIT (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 88 pitches.
Good for baseball, bad for fantasy. He gets the Reds Carpet up next and I’m okay with it – I don’t believe Martinez will return a 32% strike rate on his changeup again. It feels a bit like a coin toss, but 32%? Naaaah.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs TEX (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 99 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. A bit wild and all over the place with an inefficient putaway rate (if you can believe it), and he was punished for many of his mistakes over the plate. Pitch better and Koufax won’t have an excuse.
Edward Cabrera (CHC) vs NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
Blegggggh. This isn’t the Cab we want to hail. The good news? He’s possibly learned to love the abandon the four-seamer to RHB (zero thrown!) and pulled it down to only 18% to LHB, favoring 44% changeups and 15% sinkers instead. Why is that important? Well 2/7 strikes on the pitch as he struggles to locate it as well as the sinker. That said, the curve and slider were also an issue here and I want to see a fella with more than a changeup carrying him through the outing. Is he just a Toby now? It sure feels that way.
Janson Junk (MIA) vs MIL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 93 pitches.
For a guy I was super amped for just a moment ago, I’m sad to see what we’ve gottten since. It hasn’t been bad, but not the realization of his upside, due to an inability to locate. His four-seamer not only held a poor strike rate, but failed to land upstairs, explaining its poor whiff numbers, while the slider and sweeper are simply not doing their job and failing to miss bats by landing either up-and-away to RHB or too comfortably over the plate to LHB. I’d give it one more go against the Cardinals and hope he flexes the talent, though it may not be convincing enough to hold for the Dodgers and Phillies after. 10% putaway rate? Come on Junk.
Eric Lauer (TOR) @ ARI (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.
His velocity is back up to 91/92 mph, but the whiffs sure aren’t. The ceiling is too rare for blegh starts like these, with many others surely worse ahead.
Kyle Leahy (STL) @ HOU (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 83 pitches.
As much I want to get amped about this, I’m still not seeing consistent execution from Leahy. But he gets the Marlins and Pirates next. And yet he’s averaging under five innings per start. Can’t do it.
Logan Webb (SFG) @ WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 99 pitches.
I lowered Webb this week and I hate that it was the right move with one run worse than a VPQS. You just had to let that final run in the sixth score with two outs, didn’t you. Now he’ll get the Dodgers and Phillies. Oh no. I think you still start him, but yeah, it may be rough.
Peter Lambert (HOU) vs STL (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 90 pitches.
Wait, what. He came in like a Lambert and out like a LION with a Golden Goal, ruined mostly by a third frame that started with two hit by pitches and a walk. How did he dominate otherwise? While by going BSB with 95+ mph up at 17″ vert (but a high arm angle) and changeups down to LHB, and curves + sliders away to RHB. I think the Astros have found themselves a legit arm to throw into the mix and I’m super tempted to go after this against the Guardians as he can lean into the four-seamer/change approach to LHB (the breakers are worse than the changeup. In addition, I hope to see more cutters to RHB in the future as it should be highly effective at 91/92 mph and a large difference in movement vs. the four-seamer. Huh. Here’s your sneaky waiver add.
Aaron Civale (ATH) vs CHW (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 103 pitches.
Yuuuuup. If you were considering Civale a Vargas Rule, the contract has concluded. That’s Civale wrote. What. Just say it out loud. Still don’t get it. WELL THAT’S ON YOU.
Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) vs LAD (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 91 pitches.
There will be times when Sugano can make it work for a desperate stream. This wasn’t one of those times.
Matt Waldron (SDP) @ LAA (L) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 81 pitches.
Baseball is better with a knuckleballer. It does help when they aren’t so, uh, hittable. Anyway, all of you Pitcher GIFs OGs will know what to do with Waldron. Say it with me. Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.
Kodai Senga (NYM) @ CHC (L) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 65 pitches.
Oh no. No no no. I was so hyped for Senga just a few starts ago with his higher velocity and now he’s produced back-to-back disasters in Sacré Verde and Wrigley. Do you drop? I say no. Those are two tough opponents and now he hosts the Twins + Nationals. Sometimes it’s as simple as that. Now, you can absolutely move on if you disagree – it’s really hard to discern at this moment if this is just a two-start rough patch or something major. I’m seeing some poor forkballs, some poorly timed HRs and a pitcher who isn’t as poor as the last two games would suggest.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs ATL (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 89 pitches.
You know, Walker actually featured increased velocity here, at nearly 93 mph, not the 91/92 mph we’ve seen so far. But he didn’t throw it for strikes. Sure didn’t. Don’t call it an endorsement. Please, don’t get it twisted.
Zack Littell (WSN) vs SFG (L) – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 77 pitches.
Oh, so you’re not someone to consider. Like, at all. NOTED.
Game of the Day
Chris Sale vs. Cristopher Sánchez – Two stud lefties with two different approaches in a heated division rivalry. Love it.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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