Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Bubba Chandler (PIT) @ TEX (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 78 pitches.
We’re in the final week of April and it’s hard not to compare Bubba Chandler to last year’s disappointment of Jackson Jobe, where both arms were frustrating stash SPs the previous season, followed by a lackluster introduction to the majors as a starter the following season. I had believed Chandler was turning a corner recently, but watching him in Texas last night was rough, and that was before the destructive fourth frame that ended his night with a 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 78 pitches (L) against the Rangers.
What is going on here? First of all, Chandler is battling himself far more than the batter, and it’s not what I experienced watching him in relief last season, nor what he did in the minors before the whole “I’m not getting called up angst” mid-season. You can learn a lot about a pitcher if you sit down and watch him. Every so often, take inventory of your subconscious levels of anxiety/confidence in the pitcher to execute the next pitch. You’ll be surprised how easily you can tell if a pitcher is locked in or not.
That said, there were only a few balls in play that were actually laced on poor pitches (obviously Seager’s 3-run blast and Carter’s inside-the-park HR), and his first frame had a fair amount of poor luck to put him on his heels early, making it more difficult to find his rhythm. And yet, if Chandler were in a proper rhythm entering this outing, they wouldn’t have affected him this much.
So what do we do now? I’m holding. Oh come on. I am. He’s not a 15% walk-rate arm (six walks in his last three, ten in his first two), and the sub 10% SwStr rates of this game and last are not his destiny. The stuff is great, the intent is correct, and vs. STL, Reds Carpet, and Oracle Park is the perfect trio of starts to ease Chandler into the pitcher he’s supposed to be. You said that about Arlington. That’s true. Then let me phrase it this way: The probability of Chandler figuring it out in ideal matchups mixed with the upside that follows outweighs the probability of Chandler floundering across all three games. So yes, I’m buying low. I suggest you do too, as long as it’s actually a buy low. Is he going to be Top 40 on Monday? I can’t do that, sadly. But you best hold if you have him.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) @ SFG (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 105 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. The slider is back to 71% strikes and when that’s cooking, it’s game over, man. GAME OVER. Just stay on the field. Please.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) @ BOS (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. What an awesome game. Despite returning six fewer strikeouts and seven fewer whiffs, Schlittler outdueled Tolle. How? A lower CSW. Wait, what? Yep. Lower CSW (with a good strike rate) = more balls in play = higher chance of efficiency. I’m not saying this is the ideal every time, though lines like these from Schlittler are unsurprising, and I’m suddenly comparing him to peak Alcantara and Wheeler where their CSW marks sat below 30% as they returned quick outs on their fastball mixes at high velocities. Oh, that’s hot. It sure is.
Davis Martin (CHW) @ ARI (ND) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 97 pitches.
PL Bot strikes again! No, Martin strikes again. True. That’s a 2.01 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and 22% strikeout rate through five starts now, obviously propped up by this one. Don’t expect the punchouts to stick with his 10% SwStr rate and an elevated putaway rate, though it’s hard not to Vargas Rule this against the Angels twice in a row, right? He’s certainly commanding well enough.
Payton Tolle (BOS) vs NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 93 pitches.
Hahahahaha this was awesome. My concerns for Tolle entering this were rooted in erratic four-seamer command last season and a lack of secondary offerings to keep batters from fastball-hunting. While we didn’t see fewer fastballs (there was a new sinker thrown 18 times, covering the 15 point reduction in four-seamers and a little more), we did see a new curveball from Tolle at 82 mph that was phenomenal, a good cutter, and one of his three changeups looking stellar. The real story was his fastball command, living in or around the zone incessantly, save for a small blip to open the game and later in the fourth. It’s such a good four-seamer that Tolle truly just needs to keep it in the upper half with some secondary support and his golden, like the CSW of last night that earned a King Cole. He’s an obvious must-add, though y’all know he’s not locked to be a stud all year. This was just one game where he had high strike rates. I hope it sticks because hot DANG is it fun. Yesterday looked like a Top 20 SP.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs PIT (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 89 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. You just had to walk your first batter with two outs in the sixth, didn’t you? The slider is sliding like old and he’s at 97/98 mph. This is the good life.
Michael Soroka (ARI) vs CHW (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 101 pitches.
This wasn’t the best Soroka curveball that led to a poor putaway rate, but the cutter! It was fantastic to LHB save for one that leaked over the plate for a hit, and he’s such an easy hold right now. I need to give him more love on The List with @MIL, PIT, @TEX up next.
Christian Scott (NYM) vs MIN (ND) – 1.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 43 pitches.
He was throwing a no-hitter, how could they pull him?! I was at this one and it was really painful, where he walked in a run in the first, then opened the second with a walk and a balk. Scott’s new cutter is supposed to be the strike stabilizer and it went 2/9 strikes. The splitter was thrown once and hit Buxton. His four-seamer wasn’t as erratic as you’d think, but it kept missing just outside the zone. This was a fella stoked to return to the bigs after getting a taste in 2024 before TJS hit, and it’s why the PILOT rule exists. But it wasn’t a debut! It may as well have been. David Peterson came in to clean up in the middle innings and would have earned his first dub of the year if not for the Mets Metsin’, and I wonder if they’ll give Scott another chance to remove the jitters. I really hope so – he’s so much better than this, obviously.
JR Ritchie (ATL) @ WSN (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 89 pitches.
Ritchie allowed a HR on the very first pitch of his MLB debut and massive credit to him for settling down for what was effectively 1 ER in seven frames after. I’ve been really down on Ritchie throughout the spring, even when talking to Eno about him on the latest episode of The Craft, and it’s hard to see the screen right now with all the egg on my face. THAT SAID, he rarely saw a two-strike count and was absurdly efficient getting the punchout, while his curveball and four-seamer held horrific strike rates (48% and 42%, respectively) and I’m shocked he did so well throwing them 55% of the time combined. That changeup and slider were the saviors. And me. Yes, you too, Koufax. The stuff is good and bad at the same time – 94/95 mph with a flat 1.4 HAVAA but poor movement and mid extension, and a below-average slider do little to excite, but an 82/83 mph two-plane curve, a legit changeup, and 91/92 mph cutter is solid – and if he’s actually a command pitcher with that arsenal, I can understand this working out. Is he really a Holly already? Is he even going to start again with Strider expected back in ten days and a day off next week? If so, he’d get the Tigers and you can certainly spec add if you’d like, I think this is too…meh for me. I hate trusting command and changeup-focused RHP, and I wonder if the curveball velocity will stick, let alone find strikes at a much higher frequency.
Cade Cavalli (WSN) vs ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 85 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! I want to give him the Gold Star for such a stupid good strikeout rate, though he has Drake Baldwin and Austin Riley to thank for half of these, mostly fishing for curveballs, while Dubon couldn’t handle his four-seamer twice. I don’t like seeing Cavalli throw so many sinkers away to LHB (1/3 outs in play…) and I’m not convinced that he’ll have a 50% CSW on the hook with 44% on the sweeper + 15% SwStr rates on his four-seamer. He will get the Mets, Twins, and Marlins up next, and that may be okay. I’m not sold just yet.
Ryan Feltner (COL) vs SDP (ND) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 40 pitches.
He left this one early with triceps soreness. Poor guy.
Brandon Sproat (MIL) @ DET (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 76 pitches.
I watched this one and he deserved better. After a leadoff double on a terrible four-seamer down the pipe, he nearly escaped the frame unscathed until Greene hit a fantastic first-pitch down-and-away curveball over the wall. I’m curious how many HRs have been hit on similar pitches in 0-0 counts this year (I’m guessing this is the only one). After that, he didn’t allow another run on his watch, leaving the sixth with one out and a walked batter at first, who came around to score. He’s pitching well, y’all. The cutter is looking much better to LHB, the sweeper is doing work to RHB, and the only issue I have is his four-seamer and curve command, which are hit-or-miss. The intent is there to LHB, just inconsistent execution. He’s a hold for me against the Sneks and Cardinals, where either one could be the major outing we’ve been waiting for.
Edward Cabrera (CHC) vs PHI (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches.
Welcome to the part of the roundup where many of our highly drafted arms were rough yesterday. It starts with Cabrera, who endured a tough seventh frame, extended by an error, and wasn’t actually terrible on Thursday. In fact, he had just two runs to his name with just four hits through six. I’m encouraged by this one, where he FINALLY went sinkers over four-seamers (29 vs. 5) and it paid off. That wasn’t simply because he faced more RHB than usual – four-seamers were featured just 11% of the time to LHB, while the change, curve, and sinker took hold. That curve was great, the change was excellent, and the sinker allowed just one hit to LHB. This is the Cabrera you want.
Logan Webb (SFG) vs LAD (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.
You know, for a guy who has disappointed us plenty this season, this isn’t so bad for a game against the Dodgers. Yeah, he’s going to get Singled Out a ton – that’s the life of a guy with a 14% flyball rate – but he is who he is. Regression comes both ways and the 5.11 ERA and 1.38 WHIP will come way down as we continue throughout the year.
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
Aces gonna cruise for one run through six, then allow three straight hits to kick off the seventh and have them all hit the books. Whatareyagonnado. The Skubal vs. Skenes SP #1 battle continues.
Joe Ryan (MIN) @ NYM (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 92 pitches.
Wow. After watching Scott’s ghastly top of the first, Ryan had to wait longer than usual and was bamboozled with a three-run shot in the first, then failed to find his footing in the second, including a dropped third strike that scored a run and let Bichette skitter to first. What’s wrong with him?! Nothing, really. He threw some bad pitches, couldn’t get some batters away, it was just not a fun outing for the fella. It happens, and he deserves credit for sticking around through five innings despite all of the tussle of the first two frames (all three were unearned in the second). Don’t do anything silly.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) @ CHC (ND) – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 12 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 99 pitches.
Aces gonna lie down on the floor. Hey, Sánchez, you okay? I know, your changeup and sinker are highly susceptible to Koufax abandoning you on a given day, I get it. But it’s happened a lot this year! I know, I know, a near 12 hits/9 is unfair, but at least you’re not walking many! And your strikeout rate is still great! What did I do wrong?! Nothing! Well, you’re at 94.3 mph, not 95/96, and you kept your changeup up a bit too much, and the sinker got way too much of the plate and—YOU CAN STOP NOW. Okay, okay. Look, you’re facing the Giants, Marlins, and Rockie Road next. I like ice cream. Me too, Cristopher. Me too.
Matt Waldron (SDP) @ COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 82 pitches.
Don’t trust a knuckleballer. Especially in Coors. And without a successful track record. Jeeeeez.
Game of the Day
Framber Valdez vs. Andrew Abbott – Two southpaws going at it and I hope it’s the start where Abbott gets his mojo back.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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