Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs DET (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches.
What is the dream of a Vargas Rule? Why, to break all the rules and settle in as a trusted Holly for the season. Michael Wacha is making his case to not just carry you across the short journey through the opening weeks of the season, but to be by your side for the thousand mile adventure of the full season. After last night’s 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches (W) excellence against the Tigers, Wacha now boasts a 2.63 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through eight starts and 51.1 innings, and who knows, maybe this is a Kelly or Mikolas or even a 2024 Wacha situation all over again.
I’m not quite sold that his current skills are enough to break the chains of the lamented label. Wacha’s 2025 was a questionable year and to embrace a renaissance, there must be a cauldron of change. Bubbles of excitement and swirls of color to showcase its altered state. I am seeing an improved cutter at a tick extra velocity and higher usage against LHB in this start (27% vs. 15% usage) and a 70% strike rate on the pitch for the year. I’m also seeing fewer than 10 whiffs per game and an unsustainable 6.0 hit/9 that is sure to climb, even if he barely allowed any hard contact in this one.
This isn’t the biggest deep dive I’ve presented on a featured pitcher, and it’s simply because there isn’t a whole lot to tell you. Wacha is in a groove + has had plenty of good grace from Koufax to combine into a smooth start to his 2026 campaign. It doesn’t seem destined to last forever, and we keep starting until the writing is on the wall. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Spencer Strider (ATL) @ LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 91 pitches.
I’ve been awfully low on Strider since the middle of last season and my expectations were minimal entering this outing against the Dodgers. And look at this. 15 whiffs. Six shutout frames. Eight strikeouts. A King Cole. You want me to tell you he’s back. I want to tell you he’s back. He’s not back, is he. No. He is not. He’s better, and I love that he sat 96+ mph for the full outing, featuring an inch extra vert that I expected to see after last week’s start in Coors. So what’s the problem? That heater isn’t good enough. It’s not the destroyer of worlds it once was and his slider is an 85 mph breaker with worse movement than a gyro slider. The new curveball has terrible stuff (79 mph but with the movement of an 83 mph slider…?), and here’s the thing. The first three innings were going great. Sure, there were some pitches that I don’t think he’ll get away with (a pair of called strike threes on breakers, a down the pipe heater, two changeups that he generally doesn’t execute well, etc.), but if this is the guy I could trust we’d always get, I’d be so down. Then he got saved in the fourth, with a 2-0 groundout, terrible walk, and a 2-1 heater down the pipe to Tucker for a near GBDP. Then an eight-pitch grind for a groundout. It was fading. And yet, even as I watched this, seeing a clear-as-day discount Dylan Cease, there were these swings that shocked me. Ohtani whiffing on a curve and inside heater. Muncy failing to punish a very hittable slider. For all the data this, data that, there are times hitters tell you if you’re effective or not. The Dodgers were outlining that something Strider was doing here (choaticly located pitches without the great stuff) works. So we ride. I hope he’s dope – baseball is better for it – and here’s to that possibility. Just don’t expect him to suddenly becoming a crafty arm with much more than his four-seamer and slider. (View Game Card)
Cam Schlittler (NYY) @ MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I’m glad he’s actually acting like the SP #2 now. (View Game Card)
Anthony Kay (CHW) vs SEA (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
Kaaaayyyyy, he got his changeup down to RHB and returned some whiffs! And the sinker went inside to LHB! And the sweeper had a sub-50% SwStr rate. Yeah, that’s true. He’s generally terrible at putting batters away, but was much better in this one, even if inefficent inside the at-bats themselves. As much as I want to tell you Kay is figuring this out, he doesn’t have the command he needs to have to make this a consistent result. (View Game Card)
Aaron Civale (ATH) @ BAL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 97 pitches.
I don’t get it. A 2.59 ERA…and 1.39 WHIP. Sure, it’s obviously a massive and unsustainable LOB rate + a low HR rate, but he can’t keep getting away with it. ERA isn’t the only thing, y’all. Yeah, his four Wins in eight starts help, too. NOT MY POINT. (View Game Card)
Jack Leiter (TEX) vs CHC (ND) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.
If you ran with Jack Zippo, this feels like a worthy Dusty Donut…right? Jack, fella, you really can’t go 51% strikes on your elite stuff four-seamer. It kinda defeats the whole attack. (View Game Card)
Trey Yesavage (TOR) vs LAA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 87 pitches.
Sometimes, all you need to do is look at the pitch count per inning to get a grasp of a pitcher’s skill. Sure, he could have come out for the fifth if he didn’t need eleven pitches to get out the final batter of the fourth…except he churned a doubleplay on the final pitch, escaping a bases-loaded jam. All of that said, I’m happy his slider was much better here, with 73% strikes and a 27% SwStr rate, with all of his pitches sitting a tick up to closely match their 2026 selves. I’m willing to wager that by June 1st, Yesavage will be settled in to be like the arm we envisioned over the winter. (View Game Card)
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ SFG (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.
Atta boy Ashcraft. I absolutely adore the 78% strike rate, and look at you, leaning heavily into the elite 92 mph slider/cutter when the big curveball was all over the place and more hittable than usual. We keep riding against the Phils and Cards next. (View Game Card)
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs NYM (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 96 pitches.
There he is. The slider and changeup were exactly what we saw last time and against a weaker team = success. I wish it weren’t Coors up next, though he could still succeed there, and then you get to stand on the shoulders of Giants for two straight. (View Game Card)
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs MIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 98 pitches.
Sometimes, you’re like Devens and you know how to flip a coin. Sorry for the survivor spoilers. A Gallows Pole is hot , with every single offering returning at least a 19% SwStr rate. Pretty bonkers given how many pitches he threw down the pipe + missed terribly outside the zone. I’m not seeing anything abnormal here save for outlier two-strike and PAR numbers, but hey, it’s the Reds Carpet up next. That’s fun. (View Game Card)
Joe Ryan (MIN) @ CLE (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 107 pitches.
I’m so glad you’re okay. Seriously. But his velocity was down, right? Nope, we’re comfortably back over 93 mph, sitting 94 mph in the first and hitting 95.3. Oh thank heavens. We should be good to go now. (View Game Card)
Chase Burns (CIN) vs HOU (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 87 pitches.
Aces gonna get frazzled by his coronation that he fanned just two batters. Two! He overthrew two-strike pitches and rarely got to them in the first place in a super weird start that featured 48% slider strikes. Very strange and yet, as an ace, it’s still highly productive. (View Game Card)
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) @ CIN (L) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.
Oh dang, the Pasta Pirate is a must add at this point. The four-seamer’s marks are a little worse with just 13″ of vert, but a 1.8 HAVAA and intent to elevate led to 73% strikes and a 15% SwStr on the 36% thrown pitch (that’s much higher than the 25% mark we’re used to), allowing for a solid outing despite the curveball feel going in-and-out. His changeup to LHB was also consistently dotted down-and-away, making me oh-so-interested in dates against the Mariners, Twins, and @TEX. (View Game Card)
Randy Vásquez (SDP) vs STL (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
The four-seamer is at 95 mph (not 96+), but the whiffs hath returned and that’s all that truly matters. Vásquez elevated effectively with sweepers and cutters landing underneath often, while also tightening his pitch movement across the board to feature a clearer set of cutters vs. sweeper/curve breakers. I like the distinction, I like the overall command, and I like starting him @MIL up next. (View Game Card)
Landen Roupp (SFG) vs PIT (L) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.
If it weren’t for an eleven pitch walk to Horowitz in the fourth, we may have seen Roupp stick it out longer than a single in the fifth before hitting the showers (which was his sole ER, Careful, Icarus). But that isn’t truly fair, as this was a game of Roupp battling his sinker all game, returning just a 48% strike rate in the end. It’s not uncommon for Roupp to earn more strikes with his curve, cutter, and change, while teasing the sinker around the zone, but there has to be a better middle ground than this. He’ll figure this out, and you can clearly see he’s absurdly talented at pitch separation with precision on the secondaries down and in town. I’m absolutely holding, even with the Dodgers up next. (View Game Card)
Dustin May (STL) @ SDP (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 97 pitches.
Seven strikeouts?! Hot dang, look at you! You’re getting the Gold Star just for that reason, with a ton of whiffs down-and-away to RHB with his 93 mph cutter (it’s about dang time!) + strikeouts on four different pitches. I’m not convinced the Padres are absurdly dangerous at the moment offensively, but I don’t want to downplay May’s 41% CSW on the aforemention cutter, nor the 9/10 outs generated off his heaters. If that cutter feel is real, he’ll cruise against the Royals and Pirates up next. Just throwing it out there. (View Game Card)
Clay Holmes (NYM) @ ARI (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 103 pitches.
Yep, I’ll take that all day. A few fun backwards Ks in the bunch + lots of strikes = a great day for The Adobe. But they lost. Yes, I didn’t say For The Mets. (View Game Card)
Zack Littell (WSH) @ MIA (L) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 69 pitches.
You get NOTHING! You LOSE! Good DAY, sir. (View Game Card)
Kyle Harrison (MIL) vs NYY (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 77 pitches.
Blegh. It’s the Yankees, so it’s hard to really be upset, but Harrison didn’t have his curve or his changeup at their best, while the four-seamer was doing everything it could upstairs. I’m going to put weight on facing a tough offense like the Yankees affecting his ability to get confident and lock in, and I have no worries moving forward. (View Game Card)
Ty Madden (DET) @ KCR (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
It’s a PQS except it’s not a PQS as he was opened for by Burch Smith. The conerns I had after his first outing were fixed a bit here with his slider doing a bit more with 70% strikes and a handful of whiffs, but the problem remains: His attack to LHB needs work, evidenced by all three runs coming from a poor cutter over the plate to Massey. I don’t see enough in the overall package to get me interested, especially with the lower velocity now that he’s throwing over 80 pitches. (View Game Card)
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs COL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 94 pitches.
Oh, so Rockie Road isn’t easy enough for you. Man, Nola was a beast at locating his changeup and curve down-and-away to LHB, while keeping the fastballs and cutters up, yet he allowed five hits on these well spotted pitches, including a solo shot on a high 0-1 fastball in the second. Because it was 91.4 mph. Yeah, that’s fair. He’s a Toby, that’s all there is to it. He’ll get the Pirates + walk down the Reds Carpet and while I still think that’s worth your time, it’s far more of a gamble than it should be. (View Game Card)
Janson Junk (MIA) vs WSN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 94 pitches.
He was bamboozled in the first for three runs and failed to get a single whiff on 35 four-seamers, despite being a glorious stuff pitch. Is Junk a dumspter divier’s Leiter? Given how well he settled down after the first, I’m inclined to stream against the Rays up next, but I sure don’t have to. (View Game Card)
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ CHW (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.
Not even against the White Sox. It’s truly something else. Now he’ll be piggy-backing with Bryce Miller for Miller’s return this week and the writing is on the wall. Well, if Hancock doesn’t figure out how to get his four-seamer vert back in his next start or two. Then this will get interesting. (View Game Card)
Blake Snell (LAD) vs ATL (L) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 77 pitches.
You don’t need me to tell you anything. Yes, I’m aware of the poor fortune sent Snell’s way in this start, and his stuff was clearly legit. Stupid good command to RHB, too. I feel like Snell is the most obvious Still ILL guy out there, and with that out of the way, you start him against the Angels and hope #HotSnellSummer arrives a month early. (View Game Card)
Edward Cabrera (CHC) @ TEX (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
Blegh. He got Singled Out a bit, though all but one were hit hard, and those seven hits came with a pair of solo shots. I don’t think he pitched terribly at all, and I’m still holding for the White Sox. (View Game Card)
Shane Baz (BAL) vs ATH (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 100 pitches.
Yeaaaaah, I don’t think Baz should be on your fantasy teams. He was more than a tick down on everything in this one, too. (View Game Card)
Kyle Freeland (COL) @ PHI (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
Have you been waiting all day for me to give you a report on Freeland? Why?! (View Game Card)
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) @ TOR (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 84 pitches.
Womp womp. Jackie K is a better version of his 2025 self, but last start came with highly suspect command and this was more of the same, but against a better squad. We should call with Jac Ochanowicz after return 0 K in this one. With the Dodgers up next, there’s no reason to hold. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Bryce Elder vs. Justin Wrobleski – Who will break first? It should be Wrobo Cop given Elder’s success against LHB this year, but who knows. Neither should have the sparkling ERAs they have.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
