Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 103 pitches.
After allowing 8 ER across his first two starts, Clarke Schmidt has been on a heater. Following Saturday’s 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 103 pitches (W) of no-hit ball against the Orioles, Schmidt has allowed just 14 runs in ten games, pulling his ERA to a 2.84 clip on the year and a glistening 1.06 WHIP, while boasting a strikeout per inning. Maybe I’m underrating the fella.
He’s come a long way with his cutter. Not only has it become the much needed foundation against LHB, but its 20% SwStr rate to RHB is elite across nearly 40% usage. If I had one wish, it was for the curve to provide a bit more support to LHB as its 56% strike rate and low 14% Swtr clip forces a bit too much of the cutter at times. The hook was dramatically better in 2024 and it’s possible he reclaims it over the year.
The focus on the cutter has enabled Schmidt to reduce his sinker to an extreme level. Between the sinker and four-seamer, Schmidt uses just 15% fastballs to RHB and fails to eclipse 10% usage to LHB, and it’s clearly worked in his favor.
His inability to land a #2 pitch for strikes against LHB can be blamed for the 9%+ walk rate. In fact, 75% of his walks have come against LHB, despite LHB making up 53% of his total batters faced. That will be a larger issue when his adoration from Koufax inevitably dissolves and the laughably low .235 BABIP + 6.2 hit-per-nine inflate to realistic levels over a larger sample – Schmidt’s elite 34% ICR this season still doesn’t justify this level of hit suppression. It’s possible the hard contact mitigation continues and Schmidt continues being a stable Holly, though I do not see a sub 3.00 ERA and sub 1.10 WHIP arm here. The walks are sure to burn him and the cutter still gets hit hard when left over the plate, which will lead to a few disaster starts here and there. In fact, his velocity was down 1-2 ticks in this game alone and it’s hard not to think he’s getting away with a lot more than he should.
I think you’re riding with it for the season in 12-teamers, though he may turn into a high-end Toby when all is said and done. There may be a solid sell-high opportunity here in some of your leagues, though I imagine few are looking at his ERA and WHIP and buying a true breakout.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
José Berríos (TOR) vs CHW (W) – 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 98 pitches.
Whoa, The Great Undulator did well in a situation where he was supposed to do well! That’s pretty rad and despite all the ups-and-downs thus far, he currently has…a 3.51 ERA. THE MAD MAN! Now do his WHIP. Okay, okay, it’s a 1.24. He’s a little behind there but don’t worry, there’s still time. As for me, I’m not interested due to the whole anxiety and HIPSTER nature that I want nothing to deal with as a fantasy manager. Good luck in Fenway + hosting the Yankees.
Jose Quintana (MIL) @ MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
Four walks and just one strikeout?! HAISTBMBWT?! The changeup feel was back in action and cleaned up with the sinker, while the curveball hung around the edges and propelled those walks with 6/18 strikes. Yuck. You can trust Quintana to take advantage of Rockie Road up next.
Luis L. Ortiz (CLE) @ ATH (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 92 pitches.
Oh dang, are we back? Sacré Verde is known to mess with command and here comes Ortiz, Mr. “Command is a human construct”, hurling everything over the plate and dominating. We saw 47% CSW on his changeup, 4/18 whiffs on the slider, 44% CSW on the four-seamer, and a whole lot of called strikes on the sinker. The Athletics didn’t know what to do and—WHOA WHOA WHOA. Calm yourself. He’s a HIPSTER, like McCullers and Bradley. Don’t forget that. He’ll face the Cardinals and Cubs next, do you really want to take that chance? This was a game of filling up the zone, not pristine locations across his arsenal.
Landen Roupp (SFG) vs BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 90 pitches.
Atta boy Roupp. We haven’t seen the curve return a ton of whiffs in his last month or so and it’s comforting to see 9/24 on the pitch with a 63% CSW. That may not have been the star of the show, though. Roupp’s sinker and changeup command was outstanding. Sinkers hugged armside edge (and up!) while the changeup was right at the knees consistently. Sure, there’s work to be done with the cutter, but give me that change and sinker all day over a better cutter. This is the version of Roupp I hope we continue to see.
Grant Holmes (ATL) @ MIA (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 96 pitches.
Huh. Holmes threw 13% fastballs. Instead, he featured 50% sliders (beautifully spotted with 13/48 whiffs and 35% CSW), with a 92 mph cutter (17% CSW) and a 5/12 strike curveball. Oh. Yeaaaah, nothing earned whiffs outside of the slider, and the three “secondaries” induced four of the five walks and four of the five hits. Not fair! The four-seamer allowed three of those hits! Yeah, all in the first two frames and you can see why he stopped using it. I’m awfully curious where this goes – his slider feel is absurd at the moment and if the curve and cutter can be reliable for him with the rare four-seamer as a surprise pitch, well that could be the new REB development that has us buying.
José Soriano (LAA) vs HOU (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 96 pitches.
Yoooooo, Soriano! A Golden Goal as he once again threw strikes with his sinker, but the difference here was the curveball returning, suitcases in hand, filled with 10 whiffs and a bulging 53% CSW. We even saw 7/10 strikes on the slider with five whiffs (THROW THE DANG THING MORE) and while I’ll still carry some anxiety, we don’t have a choice but to roll with Soriano indefinitely. The Nationals and their LHB-heavy crew are up next – can the sinker stay low enough to keep the train rolling?
Dylan Cease (SDP) vs KCR (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 110 pitches.
A Gallows Pole from Cease and it’s not what you think. Just two whiffs on his slider all night, which would explain the lack of strikeouts as those fifteen four-seamer whiffs rarely came with two strikes. He’s such an odd pitcher with a prototypical Cherry Bomb nature and we’ll take this and hope he can close the door with the slider more often next time out.
Brayan Bello (BOS) @ SFG (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
Ayyyy, that’s two in a row! The sinker and changeup were well spotted + the cutter was in the mix (even if not all that great), with the bonus of four-seamers actually living upstairs. This is better! And maybe it’s kinda real? The great news here: Yes, it’s a day in Fenway for the Jays, but then Reds Carpet and Rockie Road back-to-back. WHAT A DREAM.
Sonny Gray (STL) vs CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 79 pitches.
Not the greatest strut down the Reds Carpet we’ve seen, but on a day where the command wasn’t incredible, we should be happy we got production…outside of a 1.40 WHIP. It’s a Gray area, for sure.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) vs DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches.
Awwww yeah. The four-seamer is still cooking and the slider is…in the zone? Changeups were low, there were some cutters, but this was all about the elite four-seamer once again and I’m totally fine with that. We keep rolling.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) @ COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 94 pitches.
Atta boy Kelly. Sure, the 1.50 WHIP is annoying, but we’ll gladly take this as a full package. Enjoy the Marlins, Giants, and Padres up next.
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs TEX (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 99 pitches.
Hey now, that’s a productive outing from Keller. It’s a fair living and he should be happy to get these results with the easy-to-hit pitches down the pipe. That’s the Keller way.
Jake Irvin (WSN) @ LAD (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 92 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! A fun Gold Star for Irvin with solid curveballs, a sprinkle of changeups, and a whole lot of Koufax making the fastballs find gloves. I don’t think this is the start of an Irvin run, unfortunately, and I’d hold back against the Angels and Tigers on the horizon.
Noah Cameron (KCR) @ SDP (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 88 pitches.
Not the prettiest game from Cameron and let’s be happy he survived. There’s nothing to be alarmed about and not enough to inspire us to start him against the Dodgers next. Just bench there and ride him after.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) @ PIT (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 89 pitches.
Ehhhh, that’s a Dusty Donut. I’m thrilled we saw the cutter as the #1 pitch and it was gorgeous. He spotted it down-and-gloveside incessantly and I just love the dang thing so much. I didn’t even hate his four-seamer and sinker command, either, though some did get away from him. The real question is the curve and (missing) slider. Well, and the four changeups that inspire little confidence. We have a good foundation now, let’s find that curve and/or slider again. Then we’re gold.
Brent Suter (CIN) @ STL (ND) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 31 pitches.
Suter opened a bullpen game for the Reds that saw Nick Martinez toss a pair of scoreless frames. Yes, he’s in the pen now making way for Chase Burns. Yes, you should absolutely add Burns right now.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) vs MIL (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 95 pitches.
Ehhhh a PQS from SWR is actually a positive given when we’ve seen from him most of the year. In fact, he was able to go BSB with four-seamers and sliders here, which is a good sign except for the fact that his heater isn’t very good. It featured 3″ less vert here at 93 mph and returned 13% CSW as Koufax did a lot to prevent more damage. It’s better to be lucky than good.
Dustin May (LAD) vs WSN (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 84 pitches.
A PQS ain’t the worst from May, especially when the plan was serving a boatload of sweepers against a heavy LHB lineup. He doesn’t have much else to offer and it’s been nearly three months now. Where’s the development?
Griffin Canning (NYM) @ PHI (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 94 pitches.
Ayyy a Win! It’s an obvious Dusty Donut as the ratios hurt once again and I hate seeing the changeup land so far in the zone this time around. At least the slider was vicious for 8/31 whiffs, eh? I’m not interested against Atlanta up next, sadly.
Cade Horton (CHC) vs SEA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 90 pitches.
Blegh. He didn’t locate nearly as well as we’ve seen and it was a laborious day on the bump. It’s all part of the process and I’m still a fan of the foundational cut-fastball as an efficient pitch moving forward + his sweeper for RHB & curve with changeups to LHB should work out well over time. I’m still in against the Astros, Guardians, and Twins up next.
Eury Pérez (MIA) vs ATL (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 89 pitches.
I can’t be the only one upset that Pérez allows hits on four-seamer along the black, right? I’m glad we saw more sliders here after four-seamer + curve before against a ton of LHB. This time, he kept it consistent with 25% sliders against both handedness and 39% CSW at a 21% SwStr rate was the result. Much better. And look at that, 89 pitches! Why, he nearly made it through five this time. He’s still at 98/99 mph too with 18″ of vert on the heater, and I’m kinda sad it’s the Sneks next. I feel like Eury is one or two starts away from being HIM.
Carson Palmquist (COL) vs ARI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 62 pitches.
This could have been far worse, you know.
Mitch Spence (ATH) vs CLE (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 85 pitches.
Ah. At least he’s at 85 pitches? Spence, you’re normally better at locating the cutter and slider, not this whole “Auto-Zone is the best Zone.” You gotta get that slider and cutter down-and-gloveside, yeesh. I wonder if he’ll stick in the rotation after this.
Mick Abel (PHI) vs NYM (L) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 73 pitches.
He allowed four solo shots, including back-to-back-to-back jacks. Ouch. Yeah. This was mostly four-seamer/curve, too, where the break wasn’t a pitch to respect. No wonder we’re looking at this, asking ourselves HAISTBMBWT?! I believe this will improve over time as we’ve seen that slider and curve perform in the past + the four-seamer is a great pitch with solid command upstairs. It just needs help.
Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET) @ CHW (ND) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 68 pitches.
SGL followed a horrendous Brant Hurter and did his best to cruise through the seventh as he was absurdly efficient, returning out after out on cutters, sinkers, and four-seamers. Not changeups? Not really. Just eleven thrown for 0/11 CSW and a 36% strike rate and paired with a 2/10 whiff slider, I’m not thrilled about what we’re getting. He’s not spotting pitches to take advantage of his extension and sinker drop (even though 5″ vert is not the 2″ vert of 2023). I wish I were jazzed by the cutter and four-seamer, too, but they aren’t what made SGL special. It was the changeup and slider as whiff pitches + the sinker as an out generator. What?! Nick isn’t in love with a cutter?! I know, right? Surprise with it, sure, but it can’t be the focus. At least he’s back to 70 pitches and going deeper into outings. Maybe it means we’ll get a start soon and he can eventually turn into the man of old? Yeah? The ceiling is still in there, but we’re now in TIARA land. I don’t know when he’ll take it off, and I’ll be amped when he does.
Aaron Civale (CHW) @ TOR (L) – 7.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 96 pitches.
This one was a pretty easy avoid, yeah? He’ll get the Giants next and while that has some potential of going well, I’m not sure why you’d favor this over other options.
Zach Eflin (BAL) @ NYY (L) – 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.
It’s not easy going up against the Yankees and it’s even tougher when you’re not able to spot your pitches along the edges. With Tampa, Atlanta, and the Mets up ahead, it’s unwise to bank on Eflin snapping into place and putting yourself at risk of nights like these.
Brandon Walter (HOU) @ LAA (L) – 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 99 pitches.
Womp womp. Welp, the changeup was good, the sweeper was utilized minimally, and the cutter + four-seamer found the heart of the plate too often. Now it’s the Cubs and while Walter has decent enough skills to pull it off, the Shag Rug here is too dang scary. He’s a deep-league play moving forward until further notice.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) @ CHC (L) – 4.0 IP, 9 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.
Yikes. At least you were given a major heads up not to roll with Hancock with a date in Wrigley. And there were some positives, believe it or not. The four-seamer was elevated well and the changeup + slider flashed plus. With the Twins + Royals + Pirates up next, there are worse plays than Hancock in AL-Only leagues.
Game of the Day
David Peterson vs. Jesús Luzardo – Two southpaws who have performed above expectations this season.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
