Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Ryan Bergert (SDP) @ SFG (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 83 pitches.
I had no expectations for Ryan Bergert in his first MLB start Tuesday night in Oracle Park and he easily earned a Gold Star and my attention with 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 83 pitches against the Giants. Sure, it’s not sparkling, but there are elements to like here.
Fastballs are the first place we always look and 94/95 mph with 18-19″ of vert is a great start. He was only able to convert 50% strikes on the pitch, though I’m willing to say nerves were involved as he tugged the pitch away to RHB plenty. It certainly felt like he was rushing his mechanics slightly, which then sped up his arm and led to inconsistent release points. I could be wrong here, though I’m willing to bet we get more strikes next time out.
What really sold me was the slider. It has legit movement off the four-seamer while peaking around 89 mph down-and-away to RHB. Paired with the high vert four-seamer, it can miss bats regularly if this is a real skill he can repeat. Just 4/28 whiffs yesterday, though the flashes were absolutely plus.
His 84/85 mph sweeper had moments as well, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the pitch became more of a weapon over time. With the Brewers up next, it makes for a spec add in 15-teamers as we wait to see what is real. I see how Bergert excels and cruises through that lineup with heaters, sliders, and sweepers, though the changeup needs work and LHB may be a bit of a struggle. I also don’t know where the command will settle and if the whiffs will come alive. For 12-teamers, he’s a desperate Sunday play to consider and we’ll chat after that one.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Landen Roupp (SFG) vs SDP (ND) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 92 pitches.
Roupp, look at you! Earning 8/32 whiffs with 66% strikes on your changeup! You loved it so much you threw it over 30% of the time to both LHB and RHB and I don’t blame you in the slightest. It opened the door for called strikes on the sinker and a 32% CSW on the curve and I love this. He didn’t even have a good curveball working! What?! Roupp is evolving?! SOOOUUUUPPP! Wow! Your Roupp evolved into a Soupp! Does that mean Toupp is next? He’s super. That’s it. ENJOY THE REFERENCE.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) @ PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
He fanned twelve last time out and backed it up with the Pirates as we had no choice but to try this again. It’s been interesting to watch McCullers turn away completely from fastballs to LHB, favoring changeups, curveballs, and sliders, with a touch of 88mph cutters acting as his primary heater (2/3 strikes and one for an out ain’t so bad!), while it’s sinker/slider to RHB. Isn’t that just Clarke Schmidt but with more filth? Well, Schmidt features the cutter a lot more and we have more faith in him to earn strikes consistently, but I get it. And I’m here for it. He’ll get more LHB than RHB against the Guardians next and we’ll see how that goes. It’s a great schedule overall, though, so we hold tight. Give me one more great start and you’re easily Top 60 SP in the fun Tier 8 with Zebby and friends.
Shane Smith (CHW) vs DET (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 85 pitches.
Atta boy Smith! The curve was a huge surprise given his reliance on changeups and sliders predominately thus far, and it excelled against LHB for a 70% strike rate and 6/20 whiffs. Want to know the best news though? His four-seamer sat 96.6 mph. That’s over 85 pitches! He showed 95/96 mph in the fifth (last heater was 94.7), then reared back for 96.9 mph in the sixth before getting lifted. THAT’S THE GROWTH I WAS WAITING FOR. I’m legit in on Smith moving forward with the changeup still looking filthy, the four-seamer velocity up, and the curveball getting involved…Suitman whispers into my ear. What’s that? Just 12″ of vert?! Huh. That’s weird. Now I’m so curious what he gives us against the Royals. Here we go.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs TEX (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 79 pitches.
Okay, I concede. The Rays are dumb and should have let him go at least one more frame. THAT SAID, he wasn’t as efficient because he was earning all the strikeouts, including striking out one batter three times. I’m looking at you Laz and your refusal to call gorgeous front-hip sinkers for strikes. Rasmussen’s command was as good as I’ve seen all year with his sinker/cutter inside to LHB, while inside/out on sinker/cutter to RHB, mixed with four-seamers upstairs when needed or over the plate early. Who cares about the curve and sweeper when this glorious trio are dope?
Grant Holman (ATH) vs MIN (ND) – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 12% CSW, 17 pitches.
He opened for Jacob Lopez, who returned 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks for a Dusty Donut. Nine strikeouts is something (three each on his heater, slider, and cutter!) but a trio of home runs did him in and that’s your ball game. You can see how it works as he dances the cutter over the plate and leaves the four-seamer away + keeping the slider down-and-in for batters to swing over, but it’s awfully volatile. The slider can’t go sub 50% strikes at 29% usage forever, especially if the four-seamer is playing keep-away and isn’t a confident strike earner.
Beau Brieske (DET) @ CHW (ND) – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 26 pitches.
This was a bullpen game with Brant Hurter following in time for just two frames and four strikeouts. We’re getting SGL today and I CAN’T WAIT.
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs HOU (L) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 99 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Here I was saying that Skenes doesn’t go more than six frames often and now he goes a full eight after pushing past six in his last one. The sweeper took a big step forward here with a massive 35% usage to RHB and 42% CSW overall, which is not the Skenes way. At all. Just 19% four-seamers is shocking, even if he faced mostly RHB, where the sinker (not splinker) appeared instead for 26% usage. In short, it was a different, more efficient and well-rounded Skenes I’ve ever seen and I LOVE IT. He earned a whiff on all seven of his pitches (changeup, splitter, curve, and slider in there too!) and this is so fun to watch. He deserves better than the Pirates.
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) @ SEA (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 90 pitches.
Sugano took full advantage of @TEA by throwing a ton of splitters to LHB, keeping his four-seamers upstairs, and landing the sweeper away to RHB. He’s a Toby for what should be a winning club and he’s 15-teamer gold.
Zac Gallen (ARI) @ ATL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 89 pitches.
A King Cole against Atlanta for the struggling Gallen is a wonderful sight. He’s been doing what he can to adapt and the changeup came through in a big way to LHB while the curve is still a phenomenal offering. He’s a little more careful with his four-seamer these days as well, while reducing the cutter/slider to just 2/89 thrown was a good call. Lean into the curve/change when those are working. Let’s hope both offerings are there in Cincinnati next time out.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. The changeup is still a major factor and I love this version of Rodón so dang much. We even saw 7/8 sinker strikes too, with usage down-and-away to RHB. But it allowed three of Rodón’s five hits. Okay, fair, but they were well located!
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) @ TOR (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 96 pitches.
Hmmmm. The changeup returned just 50% strikes as the Jays didn’t go hunting for the pitch as much as you’d expected, though Sánchez yanked a few too many glove-side against RHB. Can’t allow a hit-per-inning if you don’t throw them strikes, amirite? This 57% strike rate will be gone by dawn, I promise you.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs COL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 70 pitches.
HE SURVIVED. It was Rockie Road and I’d be astounded if he didn’t get through this one, even if Meyer struggled on Monday. He also got stupid unlucky in the fifth with a clear out on a super high chopper that led to two runs that should be unearned in my book. THAT SAID, this was sinkers thrown over the plate returning outs without the changeup returning whiffs or attacking batters (40% strikes, 1/10 whiffs). The slider isn’t performing well, the curve was hung for a double down the line on an 1-2 pitch, and he’s not doing all the things he used to. Sinkers need to get inside to RHB, changeups have to strike fear, and breakers have to stay low. At least he gets the Pirates next with more reps under his belt (and hopefully confidence?) while he’s sitting 98 mph once again. You can do it Sandy…
Pablo López (MIN) @ ATH (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 72 pitches.
López is dealing with a sore shoulder and is likely to hit the IL as a result. We haven’t heard of that shoulder having issues for a long time and I’m really sad to hear he’s going through it again. After being a stable volume arm for years, his body has been letting him down and I WON’T STAND FOR IT. Who do they think they are?
Hunter Greene (CIN) vs MIL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 85 pitches.
Greene left this one after feeling the same groin issue that sent him to the IL in the first place. Uggggh. I know. It’s only slightly more annoying than throwing an 0-2 splitter over the heart of the plate for a solo shot. The slider was back in full force, too, at 71% strikes and a 45% CSW. Sigh.
George Kirby (SEA) vs BAL (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 95 pitches.
So this is the version of Kirby I don’t want to see – the Toby version. He faced a ton of LHB and threw far too many pitches over the heart of the plate, with 5/27 breaking balls returning hits and his four-seamer failing to land upstairs. But that’s okay! The velocity is there and you have to think Kirby will get better on locating his pitches, right? But he doesn’t have whiffability in his secondaries and his four-seamer is empty velocity. Ah. That’s true. Okay, so not a stud ace, right? At least we can get behind that while we should anticipate better locations moving forward.
Chase Dollander (COL) @ MIA (ND) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 59 pitches.
It was a Still ILL without a known pitch count, even against Miami. Then again, if Dollander were healthy in Miami, would you really want to risk it?
Tanner Bibee (CLE) @ NYY (L) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 107 pitches.
He was cruising through six frames, then with a pitch count over 90, he allowed back-to-back HRs in the seventh. I thought he’d be gone after the first one, nope. The second one? NOPE. Wild. I wish I had good news for y’all that he was electric across the first six frames (1 ER, 2 Hits, after all), but everything was all over the place. Sweepers and changeups returned sub 50% strikes while those strikes were hung over the plate. The curve was a bit of a savior for 11/12 strikes, but not used enough in my view. Nay, this was mostly Koufax helping his four-seamer find outs, which were generally located well and featuring increased velocity at 95/96 mph. Uhhh, wasn’t the cutter the thing we were looking for? Oh, right. That was the key to Bibee’s success in 2024 and was thrown…four times. Oh. He’s going sweeper instead and I kinda wish he didn’t…? It’s not looking great. This is still a work in progress, but at least he’s tweaking and throwing harder. I have faith he’ll find a recipe for success and stick to it shortly. That TIARA will come off.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) @ CIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 103 pitches.
A VVPQS with nine strikeouts is quite the Dusty Donut. You can blame the slider for making this a tougher day, or the four-seamer for getting too much of the plate, but in the end, you’re holding Peralta and we move on. We signed the contract.
Brayan Bello (BOS) vs LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 103 pitches.
You know, a VPQS is a step in the right direction for Bello, even if the changeup was thrown just six times the sweeper was hung plenty to RHB. At least he’s attacking the zone now! I loved his sinker command inside to RHB, which was easily the best I’ve seen all year and carried him through this one. To be fair, that sweeper wasn’t the worst and it’s good enough that it would succeed if the changeup were a proper weapon against RHB once again. One day he’ll have all three pitches working in tandem. One day…
Cade Horton (CHC) @ WSN (W) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 77 pitches.
This is a little disappointing after getting pulled in the sixth with blegh ratios, but we’ll take the Win against an exclusive LHB lineup. Props to Horton for going 94% strikes with his curveball and not just flipping the thing up there. He located it down constantly and allowed just one hit on seven balls in play. The four-seamer executed its role as a strike offering, though he could have located a few a bit better inside instead of being left over the plate. However, that wouldn’t have mattered if his changeup were further along in its development. Just 39% strikes is awfully disappointing (even with a lucky hit allowed) and it’s an area of growth moving forward. I’m down to start him against the Tigers with the benefit of the Pirates and Brewers after.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) @ BOS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 99 pitches.
Apparently the Angels didn’t realize Kikuchi had the wrong grip on both his four-seamer and slider until before this start. So they reverted his grip to last year’s version before this start? Uhhhh, yes? We saw a harder slider with less movement with a tick up on the heater and more movement at a 1.7 HAVAA and seven feet of extension, which should give you some hope that this will get better in the future. Maybe if this wasn’t Fenway and the Sawx hadn’t fouled off 11/38 four-seamers, this one could have been better. It’s not the best schedule ahead for Kikuchi and too risky to trust right away, but I’d keep an eye on him. This does seem like a better heater and slider combo – yes, I prefer the harder slider at 89 mph at the cost of movement due to Kikuchi’s extension and improved heater.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) vs NYM (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.
You’re still starting Kershaw? This is his Wizards phase. You should know better.
Tylor Megill (NYM) @ LAD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 105 pitches.
The Dodgers bamboozled Megill in the first with four runs concluding on a two-run shot by Muncy. He then settled in as the slider came alive. We’re talking 13/33 whiffs on the pitch…and a 55% strike rate. Essentially, Megill had the exact feel for down-and-gloveside just under the zone and both LHB/RHB batters obliged and whiffed on 13/15 swings. Yes, that’s highly unsustainable. He did a good job of going upstairs and avoiding the heart of the plate with his fastballs as well and this is encouraging for Megill. I question that slider performance moving forward with just a 21% zone rate, though it looks like a new slider with four inches less drop by five inches more sweep. I’m curious how that plays out, though we won’t be able to tell in Coors next time out. Stupid Papyrus Air being 90% of normal air. Why do people like a font that says “Hey, let’s have less of the font shown?”
Tyler Mahle (TEX) @ TBR (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 85 pitches.
Womp womp. Is this the end of the Vargas Rule for Mahle? I’m shocked he refused to lean into the cutter, even if it allowed a pair of hits. I don’t think he pitched poorly here and even with some good luck (we all saw that called strikeout), he was a little unfortunate to have these ratios in the end. The Nationals + CrySox are next and I’m holding tight.
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs ARI (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.
The velocity hasn’t returned. He’s hovering 95 mph instead of sitting 97 mph and it’s a problem. It turns the slider into an 83 mph pitch (not 86+!), forcing Strider to feature legit precision that he doesn’t have at the moment. It was also strange to see him lose nearly two inches of vert on his four-seamer to a pedestrian 15.7″ mark and things are looking rough. He may just need time and at the very least, his schedule is fantastic moving forward. Strider should produce against weak teams even if he’s not the MEGASTUD arm of old and you may want to consider selling after his next start or two if he’s producing and still without the velocity.
Trevor Williams (WSN) vs CHC (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 76 pitches.
Remember kids, #NeverTrevor.
Bowden Francis (TOR) vs PHI (L) – 1.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 58 pitches.
You’re not still rostering Bowden, right? Good. We preferred Bates anywhere. Bowdoin College is pronounced differently. It hasn’t changed since the first time you made that joke. They didn’t get my letter? I’ll write another.
Andre Pallante (STL) vs KCR (ND) – 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 71 pitches.
Womp womp. His cut-fastball was hit. The slider was hit. The sinker was hit. Koufax, are you playing with a ball of yarn or something?! At least he’s still at 95 mph.
Michael Lorenzen (KCR) @ STL (ND) – 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 74 pitches.
Hey Royals, mind putting Lorenzen in the pen after two straight atrocious starts and leaving Cameron in the rotation? You’ve always said you wanted “big guns” in the pen and let me tell ya, Lorenzen has those. K thx.
Game of the Day
Sawyer Gipson-Long vs. Chicago White Sox – IT’S TIME.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
