Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs TBR (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 90 pitches.
I’ve been telling you to keep starting Kevin Gausman. He’s not as bad as this. He has these moments. It’ll be worth it. Well, it was difficult writing those italics after his horrible stretch over the last two months. Including tonight’s ghastly 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 90 pitches (L) against the Rays, Gausman has allowed 3 ER or fewer just twice in his last nine games, tallying a 6.56 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 10% walk rate, and 24% strikeout rate in that time. Oh no. Yeaaaaah, it’s bad.
What if I told you he was Singled Out in this one? Eight of his nine hits were actual singles, many on competitive pitches that the Rays managed to dribble for hits or flare to the outfield. No HRs here, but there’s an easy counter: He should have missed the bats entirely. Just five whiffs ain’t the Gausman you drafted.
I can’t tell you why that occurred here. Gausman’s horrific stretch has at least come with a 14% SwStr rate and no game was under 11% before this monstrosity, where he held a 9% per-batter Putaway rate, leading to our bread being eaten as dry as Arizona pavement. Yes, that’s abnormal, yes, Koufax brought his friends for a cruel one on Tuesday, but no, it’s not just luck.
Gausman’s slider is also partially to blame. 2/11 strikes put him in worse counts that allowed batters to comfortably swing at the plate, leading to 0/51 whiffs on his four-seamer. Oh dear. But the reality of it all – Gausman’s four-seamer and splitter are pretty much the same pitch as we’ve seen for ages. Sure, it had a little worse drop tonight and in the last few games, but the splitter had its least drop for two games in May where he returned 1 ER in 12.2 IP.
He’s had a career of ebbs and flows and right now, I’m going to call this the ebb (That’s the negative one, right? Surely it can’t be the flow, that’s when guys are in the zone!). He’s going to face the Sawx in Fenway next time out and I’m still starting him if I’ve got him. You may be inclined to give it a rest until he looks fine – I don’t blame you – but this camel’s back still has room to endure what’s next. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
David Peterson (CHC) vs DET (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.
Peterson! You dog! Here’s a Gold Star for you as Mets fans 800 miles away, returning just three hits on nineteen balls in play (.157 BABIP) despite 63% hard contact. Koufax must really dislike the Mets, eh? Please don’t do this to yourself. (View Game Card)
Zac Thornton (NYM) @ MIL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 81 pitches.
That’s four games this year with a 1.93 ERA in 23.1 IP. I’m not shocked to see him struggle to find strikeouts with his cutter focus and a poor 42% strike sweeper paired with 41% fastballs coming in at 93 mph. It’s a nice run and he’s obviously sticking around post-Peralta, and even with Peralta as their “#5”. Yes, he’s better than Manaea. He’ll get Atlanta next before the Marlins, and I’m not going for it, personally. Feel free to Vargas Rule it, though. (View Game Card)
Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 75 pitches.
The final tally was 57% sliders + cutters, but the four-seamer somehow came alive for 4/16 whiffs and the White Sox couldn’t handle the few four-seamers over the plate, while the cutter and slider maneuvered the edges effectively. He’s a 15-team HIPSTER. (View Game Card)
Chase Burns (CIN) @ SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Thanks, Chase. Can you stick at 65% strikes on your four-seamer and never come close to a 52% clip ever again? And what’s this? YOU BROUGHT A FRIEND?! It’s a changeup. Awww, just one? I wanted to give him a shot, but he was too shy and shoved his face into the dirt. He’ll come out in time, don’t worry. (View Game Card)
Justin Wrobleski (LAD) @ PHI (W) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
The Wrobo Cop cleaned up in Philly with a new breaking ball entering the fray to LHB – the sweeper at a…25% strike rate. Welp, at least the fastball and slider are still working well, and he’s still mixing in sinkers, changeups, and curveballs along the way. But he was down to 94 mph, not 95+. Yeah, that’s no fun, but I wouldn’t worry about it. He returned seven strikeouts just twice in his first 14 games this year. He’s obviously a better pitcher than the stupid lucky version we saw in April. (View Game Card)
Walbert Ureña (LAA) vs STL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.
Not only was the changeup stupid good at 18/19 strikes (what?!), it sat 1-2 ticks up to 92 mph, along with his heaters, popping off 100+ mph four-seamers in the first (101.5!) and sitting 99.4 mph for the game. I see no reason to stop this lovely parade. (View Game Card)
Tatsuya Imai (HOU) vs MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
Oh hey, a good day! Savant is saying he’s throwing a proper changeup and not a splitter 12% of the time, which was highly effective against LHB, helping him get to his effective slider and throw his four-seamer outside the zone where it could only get punished three times. Seriously, 28% zone rate on his four-seamer and he still allowed three hits. I’m not sold the “changeup” is a difference I should buy into yet and consider him a HIPSTER indefinitely. (View Game Card)
Parker Messick (CLE) vs MIN (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
It was a rainy day in Cleveland and maybe that’s all Parker needed to get his velo back with a 95 mph heater (not 94!) and up at least one, if not two ticks, on his arsenal. Blame the rain for 29% strikes on his changeup, and embrace the HEAT. He was steaming out there. I sure hope 95+ mph velocity sticks this time. (View Game Card)
Kohl Drake (ARI) vs ATH (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 85 pitches.
We had an MLB debut for Drake and those who followed the PILOT Rule missed out on…decency. It feels terrible Nick, TERRIBLE! The hope here is a SWATCH, with a slow 91/92 mph heater that has good two-plane movement filling up the zone, while the curve, cutter, and changeup all aim for whiffs. The former hook failed miserably at becoming a back-foot temptation, his cutter was highly successful but likely more as a surprise pitch than as a stuff mcNasty (4/11 whiffs), and the changeup had some moments but was otherwise meh. I may be grading this too lightly given how he comfortably ploded through this one with 13 whiffs, and he may be set up for a game a week from Saturday in Cleveland that we can circle. However, the Nationals come before that one and I’m definitely not confident there. (View Game Card)
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs LAD (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna for a Gallows Pole against the DODGERS. He’s nailing his pitch separation and it’s awesome. (View Game Card)
Luinder Avila (KCR) vs SFG (W) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 87 pitches.
Whoa, that’s better than I expected, even against the Giants. We’ve seen him go six twice and never in the seventh, and he can thank fantastic inside sinkers to RHB + legit whiff ability on both breaking balls. I wonder if he’ll hold that ability, and he may be a 12-teamer streamer option if you buy into the skill with matchups against the Marlins and Giants (again!) on the horizon. (View Game Card)
Walker Buehler (SDP) @ ATL (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.
He survived! With five walks! If they hit you, don’t let them. Right, that’s what I ALWAYS say. (View Game Card)
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ TOR (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna allow seven hits in two straight games after surrendering fewer in each of his last eight games. I blame the cutter, and that’ll be fine. (View Game Card)
Brandon Sproat (MIL) vs NYM (L) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 99 pitches.
Blegh. Sproat suddenly went sinker-heavy against his old crew and it was beneficial – 68% strikes at 40% usage with seven outs and just two hits – and it’s likely because his four-seamer failed to earn a whiff on eighteen thrown. I’m a little surprised he threw few breakers, and this really wasn’t a smooth Sproat. I think I’m still starting him against the Giants next. (View Game Card)
Tyler Phillips (MIA) @ HOU (L) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 68 pitches.
Yeaaaaah, this is highly unlikely to be the sneaky starter you’re looking for in the second half. (View Game Card)
Kendry Rojas (MIN) @ CLE (ND) – 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 47 pitches.
He partnered with Mike Paredes who went three frames with two runs and six hits and y’all know I don’t want to pursue either one of them. Carry on. (View Game Card)
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs CIN (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 101 pitches.
We’ll take this all day from Castillo, who has given managers far worse across the season. Did he pitch at a level where I’d remotely consider holding him on the bench past his next start against the Dodgers? No…BUT. What. He may be traded. There have been rumors here and there about the Mariners shedding his salary since the team is sporting a six-man rotation at the moment. I don’t think that’s wise for Seattle – they need the depth for the full year! – but there’s a chance. Even then, he’s still not my favorite. (View Game Card)
Jack Perkins (ATH) @ ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 87 pitches.
Not quite enough for me with a 5.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. If he went one more frame or got a Win, I’d love this questionable King Cole award, but he was punished by a three-run shot with two outs in the first by Max Kepler, of all hitters. That bamboozlin’ ruined what was otherwise a great outing with high strike rates on his quartet of four-seamers, sweepers, changeups, and cutters. I wish he didn’t have to host two straight games, but at least it’s the Red Sox and Tigers. That could work, but is the ceiling worth it? (View Game Card)
Tyler Mahle (SFG) @ KCR (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 91 pitches.
Sooooo close. He just had to come out for the sixth and walk + HBP his first two batters before getting the hook. OF COURSE THEY SCORED. He’s pitching better these days with a 93+ mph heater upstairs and splitters + cutters down consistently – especially the cutter, which has been a journey with the slider all year. Those pitches change movement all year and Savant is suggesting this was all cutters, and I’m not really sure. At any rate, I’m not comfortable starting him against the Brewers at home, but he has a long enough leash to make six innings work in deeper formats. (View Game Card)
Miles Mikolas (WSN) @ COL (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 66 pitches.
Mikolas vs. Lorenzen in Coors gave me a chuckle. This was a 8-7 game?! NO WAY! (View Game Card)
Matthew Liberatore (STL) @ LAA (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.
I remember making the streamer rankings for Liberatore and internally getting upset that I had to put Libby in the Do Not Start bucket. This really hasn’t worked out. But he was bamboozled for all five runs capped by a two-run shot with just one out in the first! Sure, he did recover to go five full frames of shutout ball and seven strikeouts, but it still counts against him. Those five hits in the first came off some terrible pitches down the pipe to RHB (none off the slide piece), and he learned his lesson – throw more sliders. 35% usage on sliders is a massive jump from 16% in previous starts. I hope that sticks. (View Game Card)
Reynaldo López (ATL) vs SDP (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 85 pitches.
Yikes. We also saw JR Ritchie in an attempt to soften the blow, but he returned 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 68 pitches. While I wonder if we’ll get some value out of ReyLó in time (he’s 95+ mph and returned a 26% SwStr rate on his slider at 86mph! It’s a better slider now!), I’m avoiding both for now. Maybe in August for ReyLó…? There’s a possibility he’s also dealt at the deadline, but that’s only if Atlanta goes ham on getting other SP talent. Highly unlikely. (View Game Card)
Noah Schultz (CHW) @ TEX (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 80 pitches.
Bleeeegh. The Rangers weren’t fooled much by Schultz, taking their hacks with ease on everything. His two pitches aimed to jam batters on the inside corner (cutter to RHB, sinker to LHB, as is standard), performed beautifully, but three sub 70 mph EV hits came off the inside sinker (Koufax, you rascal!), while a few four-seamers, changeups, and breakers were slapped when left over the plate. There is a sturdy arm in here once he figures out how to mix his arsenal a bit better (and hopefully find a much better four-seamer because that thing is terrible, 9-10″ of both vert and run is two planes of deadzone movement), but the Yankees are next. There has to be something better to snag. (View Game Card)
Michael Lorenzen (COL) vs WSN (ND) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 80 pitches.
This was Lorenzen in Coors against the mighty Nats offense. His ERA is now 6.53 on the year across 22 games, which nearly matches Gausman’s current rough patch. That’s how Lorenzen is all the time. (View Game Card)
Framber Valdez (DET) @ CHC (L) – 0.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 42 pitches.
So, uh, before the break I led with Framber suggesting that the good times may be coming now that he’s had a game where his curveball was dope. Well, this is awkward. The man was bamboozled in the first, starting with a triple on a solid inside sinker, a 3-2 walk, 1-2 HBP, two singles that found the hole (hilariously, both grounders would have been right at the 2B if he just swapped where he was standing. Oh hey, he just hit it over here, I’ll stand here—that’s right where I was last play. Koufax, one day I SWEAR), a flare single, a “single” that was a ridiculous flare that stayed in the air forever yet fell in the outfield behind the first baseman, a flyball out, strikeout, and walking in a run on another 3-2 count. I think that’s the longest summary of an inning you’ve given. Yeaaaah, it’s all to say this was terrible luck for Valdez without his best stuff. As with Gausman, it’s always important to recognize that pitchers have the ability to sway the odds if they don’t let batters hit the ball in the first place. Anyway, what does this mean for Valdez? Not much, really. The curve wasn’t terrible and executing one or two more would have saved a whole lot of trouble. I’m going to start him against the Royals in all likelihood and go from there. I should also mention, we saw Ty Madden right after Framber for 3.1 IP of 1 ER ball in 75 pitches, and that’s nice for him. Expect Montero to step in for Flaherty, not Madden. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Bubba Chandler vs. Max Fried – It’s the return of the Yankees’ third ace and maybe Bubba just needs the adrenaline of the city to get going.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
