Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Walbert Ureña (LAA) vs HOU (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches.
I love how pitchers appear out of nowhere to become a clear hold in 12-teamers. Walbert Ureña popped up this season for the Los Angeles Angels and after a strong debut as a starter followed by a dud, we didn’t know what we’d get. However, after 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches (ND) against the Astros Wednesday night, Ureña holds an unreal 2.41 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 22% strikeout rate across 82 IP in 15 starts. You didn’t mention the walk and hit rates. Oh, uh 11% and 6 hits/9.
That’s the reason I’ve been as tepid as I have been. When you’re a pitcher with questionable fastballs and a great changeup like Ureña, it often means fewer strikes as a whole, which leads to a fair number of walks. In addition, for the unaware, a 6 hits/9 is a rate reserved for the upper echelon of starting pitchers. The rest of the plebs are lucky to get a 7 hits/9 mark, and that’s during their peaks.
However, I laid my concern to rest yesterday when Ureña sat 100.7 mph and +3.2 ticks in velocity across the first inning – without throwing a single changeup. If you don’t recall, Ureña has thrown 33% changeups this year, and even made it his primary pitch about two months ago, so to see him fan two batters with upped velocity and a disgusting sweeper at 89 mph (I think it’s a curveball, honestly, but who cares, it was awesome) made me all kinds of stoked. He continued on, bringing the changeup into the fold for 46% CSW at 31% usage, now featuring 92 mph velocity and not the 90/91 mph of old, and I’m sold. Guys are struggling to gear up and barrel the fastball effectively while the changeup is dastardly, and the breaker, even without consistency, is still a weapon that can come out and steal a few strikeouts.
Normally, we’d see a test on the horizon to really see how effective Ureña has become, but with MIL, @MIA, and TEX ahead, I fail to see a reason why you wouldn’t roll with him in all three (of course, if he’s much different and worse, that will change things). The hit rate is unlikely to be this low for the rest of the way, but if this velocity sticks at all, he’ll still be worthwhile. Enjoy one of the best waiver wire pickups of the year. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Tyler Mahle (SFG) vs MIL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 88 pitches.
I was kinda tempted to endorse Mahle here, but the Brewers have a bit of bite to them and I didn’t want to lean too hard into his 93 mph fastball, even if it was a tick up from his standard 92 mph. So, of course, he turned his head and asked What if I threw it 94+ mph instead? Sure, it was just for a 52% strike rate, but the velocity boost applied to the rest of his arsenal, too, and he had excellent command to both sides of the plate. I might upgrade him to Questionable Start for @SDP and hosting Detroit next Friday now. (View Game Card)
Merrill Kelly (ARI) @ PIT (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 93 pitches.
I could be all doom and gloom about Kelly featuring a tick less velocity, but I’d rather be stoked that he faces @CLE (then LAD, bleh) and Rockie Road across his next three games. Why? Because Kelly’s feel for his changeup is prime. 43% usage, all beautifully located down and in town away from LHB for a 68% strike rate and 9/40 whiffs. If that slowball is cooking, he’s a decent stream in both those matchups. (View Game Card)
Andrew Alvarez (WSN) vs TOR (L) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 80 pitches.
Alvarez gave us another game of sub-five frames and was demoted to Triple-A shortly after. That said, it was interesting seeing him nail his sinker inside to LHB with three inches extra run + feature a collection of solid curveballs. Too bad he’s still struggling to nail down the feel for his slider and changeup, while failing to properly jam four-seamers to RHB. (View Game Card)
Max Scherzer (TOR) @ WSN (ND) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 75 pitches.
I think it’s dope that Scherzer returned in time to make this start in D.C. I don’t think it’s dope that his four-seamer returned 15/33 foul balls. That’s maniacal. 0 whiffs, 0 outs, and two hits across 17 swings on the pitch means he wasn’t fooling batters. Yeesh. It’s pretty clear that you should avoid Mad Max for your fantasy squads. (View Game Card)
Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs SEA (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 88 pitches.
I took some extra time looking into this start and I’m now a whole lot more impressed by Rocker. I think he’s finally figured it out and much more so than his last start. This game featured 60% sliders + cutters (we love that) with brilliant slider command down, but the true star was the sinker. I’ve been labeling Rocker as a guy with horrible fastballs, but this sinker to RHB is legit. We saw him lean into it properly at 40% usage to RHB, not only with improved run at 17″ horizontal, but also accurately spotting them on the inner third inside the zone for the first time. Well, all but one. And that was a HR off the bat of Arozarena, of course. Every other in-zone sinker laced the inside edge and it checks off the box for his RHB approach – sinker/slider. Now it’s all about figuring out how to get away with his four-seamer/cutter to LHB to set up the slider. At any rate, he should get a fair number of RHB in Houston on Sunday and I’m kinda tempted. I recognize that this command and extra movement may very well disappear between starts, but if it sticks, he may have finally converted me. (View Game Card)
David Peterson (CHC) @ STL (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 86 pitches.
Wow. That’s five games with a total of fourteen strikeouts. You know, fewer than three per game. And yes, I think it’s awesome that Peterson had such good pitch separation with his sinker and four-seamer to RHB (down-and-away sinkers, up-and-in four-seamers), but hot dang, the Cubs defense can’t bail him out like this every time. I mean, you’ve already seen him allow 10 ER in a Cubs uniform. I cannot see how you can start him against the Yankees. (View Game Card)
Jack Perkins (ATH) vs BOS (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 69 pitches.
Believe it or not, Perkins had a no-hitter through five frames. Then a double on an up-and-in four-seamer, two ground outs, a walk, a hook, and an eventual pop-up-turned-grand-slam-because-of-the-horrible-home-park happened. In other words, those two earned runs are wack. That isn’t to say I loved how Perkins pitched. He got away with a ton down the pipe and featured a 55% strike rate between his four-seamer and sweeper as his two more utilized pitches. The coolest part was his changeup that held 3-4 inches more drop than usual (-3.3 vert!) at 90 mph and returned a 36% SwStr rate. I wonder if he can replicate that one. At any rate, you may be tempted to hold him for the Tigers on Saturday or @BOS next Friday, and I’m not adamantly against them, but the early leash and his general chaos speak to a low ceiling. (View Game Card)
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs ARI (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.
Keller’s velocity was down a tick to 92/93 and, as you can see, returned just three whiffs. I’m blown away that someone could earn more strikeouts than whiffs when only four batters went down by way of the K. I know that’s two decent starts in a row (bad WHIP here, FWIW), but you know this is a terrible gamble to make. He’s held a 7% SwStr or worse in three of his last four games, y’all. (View Game Card)
Payton Tolle (BOS) @ ATH (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.
This was a better start than it looks. Tolle allowed a solo shot on a high-and-tight sinker that should not have left the yard to Soderstrom (Dang, Sacré Verde!), and another solo shot on a misplaced down-and-in four-seamer to Heim. Otherwise, he returned strikes on all three of his Ras Pack and cruised to a Gallows Pole. Let him ride against the Dodgers. It’ll be fun. (View Game Card)
Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs PHI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 76 pitches.
I guess this was a King Cole…? Wild. Phillips leaned into his curveball and sweeper 50% of the time and I adore that. His sinker has 17″ of run at 95/96 mph, which could drive him through games. However, just a handful of heaters and breakers were executed well to RHB and I’m not confident he’s able to be this precise with his breakers to LHB in the future. There’s a chance, but it’s a small margin of error, and it’s not like this start was that great. (View Game Card)
Tatsuya Imai (HOU) @ LAA (ND) – 0.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 33 pitches.
He’s pulling a DJ Khaled. ANOTHER ONE. Who knows what you’re going to get each time out. Personally, I just don’t want to think about it, so keep him far away from my team save for a desperate Sunday. The recently activated Cristian Javier eventually appeared in relief to keep the Astros in the game, and he was excellent – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 70 pitches (W) – putting himself in the right position to earn a dub after the Astros scored four in the ninth to take the lead. He returned a 71% strike rate across all his pitches, while his changeup and sweeper were two ticks up, and he flexed a new cutter in the mix that Savant had labeled as a four-seamer, which was dope. 38% SwStr rate at 88 mph and 8/9 strikes. If that’s a real thing that sticks around, I’m kinda down for Javier the starter becoming a thing again. He’s desperately needed another strike pitch outside his four-seamer. (View Game Card)
Zac Thornton (NYM) vs ATL (W) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 81 pitches.
Thornton is a simple man. He likes his four-seamer and cutter to jam RHB, and keeps everything away from LHB. It’s fine. The pitch-to-contact approach has propelled him to six innings in each start after his spot start debut in May, and that’s really cool for a rookie. I struggle to see this as a long-term play without a third pitch to earn whiffs, not to mention that he’s not earning crazy good weak contact numbers. In fact, with my simple Hard/Weak assessment of balls in play, he allowed 71% hard contact here. Not great. (View Game Card)
Brandon Sproat (MIL) @ SFG (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 97 pitches.
You may be surprised to hear this, but I think I’m out on Sproat right now, even with a great @LAA, MIN, @SDP schedule ahead. A VPQS isn’t the worst thing ever, but it came with a drop in velocity, a stupidly high 51% four-seamer usage, and barely any success with his quartet of secondaries. This follows three starts where he failed to complete five frames. I was so excited after those two starts against the Reds, too. Sigh. (View Game Card)
Martín Pérez (ATL) @ NYM (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
This wasn’t the best version of Pérez and I don’t see a reason to stick with him moving forward if you chase him for this one. (View Game Card)
Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs CHC (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 67 pitches.
Naaaaaah. This has so rarely worked this year and even with some good sliders and curveballs, everything is so wildly inconsistent and hittable. No thanks. (View Game Card)
Noah Schultz (CHW) vs NYY (ND) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 72 pitches.
I like that he’s trying to make the cutter a true part of his attack. I dislike that there’s nothing else to love in his arsenal. I imagine that will change over time after getting a ton of hype in the minors, but for now, I’d leave him on the wire until he truly pops off. (View Game Card)
Max Fried (NYY) @ CHW (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 66 pitches.
Womp womp. I was really hoping Fried would continue where he left off in his Still ILL, but his sinker and sweeper let him down massively with sub-40 % strike rates on both. Yikes. His next outing should see him in the 70-80 pitch range and while I’m still starting him there, I wouldn’t favor him over another solid arm given the workload cap. (View Game Card)
Hunter Dobbins (STL) vs CHC (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 85 pitches.
We saw Dobbins appear behind Liberatore and he closed out the game for a rare 1-2 punch of starters. It didn’t go well for the Cardinals, as you can see, and I blame Dobbins’ sweeper and its 0/22 whiffs on the day. Or maybe his 1-2 tick velocity drop on everything. Either way, he’s not a guy to consider for your leagues. (View Game Card)
Keider Montero (DET) vs BAL (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 80 pitches.
Montero has had a magical season with a sparkling WHIP near 1.00 due to a 5% walk rate and a Hit/9 hovering at seven. Normally, a low-walk pitcher of his caliber has closer to a hit per inning and games like these are part of the deal. It doesn’t mean he’s incapable of success when he heads to Oracle Park next Saturday, but it means I don’t want to start him in Sacré Verde this Saturday. (View Game Card)
Kyle Bradish (BAL) @ DET (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
This was a frustrating game of horrific curveballs (21% strike rate?!) and not enough from his slider to make up for it. It forced eight hits off four-seamers and sinkers and that’s simply not the way this is supposed to work. I don’t believe it’ll be an issue indefinitely for Bradish, but it’s a tough blow after a fantastic stretch that began on May 8th when he fanned ten Athletics hitters. (View Game Card)
Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ MIA (ND) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 68 pitches.
This was a scary one. Wheeler sat 93.5 mph (not 95/96 mph) and tossed a 93.1 mph sinker at the end of the third, leading toward an early hook at fear of injury. The quotes after the game try to hand-wave it as an off-day, but 91 mph is terrible. At the end of the day, if Wheeler starts his next game, we’re still starting him. Please be okay. (View Game Card)
George Kirby (SEA) @ TEX (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 66 pitches.
This is absurdly frustrating. After a start where Kirby seemed to understand the right approach and sequencing, he fails to do any of it here. Four HRs hit, most on questionable pitch calls (sinker foul –> four-seamer in the exact spot he thought the sinker was? Competitive sweeper taken for a ball just outside the zone, then another just above it and hittable? WHY?!), but it’s more than that. We’re over 20 starts into the season and to see a game where he looks so lost is deflating, to say the least. Sure, it’s possible he upends the tea table and starts fresh next start, but I don’t see how I can bank on him doing that now out of all other questionable performances thus far. In 15-teamers you have to hold for the good outings, but in 12-teamers, don’t overlook the possibility of making a swap on the wire if you need it. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Shane Bieber vs. Cade Cavalli – Both starters are looking better as of late and I hope it’s a pitchers’ duel.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
