Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: A Leiter Note

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Jack Leiter (TEX) @ CHW (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 83 pitches.

One of the bittersweet moments of the fantasy season is watching a young arm display amazing talent, but engulf it with haze, preventing us on the outside from determining when he’ll arrive as a skill plateau. Jack Leiter, who fits that absurdly long description, underwhelmed in his return to the majors against the White Sox, ending his day with 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 83 pitches in the books. Those numbers ignore a unfortunate chopped single and chaotic walk in the fifth before he got the hook.

On paper, Leiter should be a legit arm in the near future. His four-seamer clocks in as elite stuff with 97+ mph, nearly seven feet of extension, a flat attack angle, and solid iVB, while the slider has enough bite to be a true whiff pitch for ages. The problem? Command. It’s not an absurd display of entropy, but Leiter fought to execute his slider, failed to hit spots with his heater, and rarely put batters on their heels. It’s such a good fastball, but without a consistent slider, batters were more comfortable than expected to connect with its mediocre locations.

That will be tweaked over time. Command in rookie seasons is often thrown out the window and once Leiter gets comfortable (without any injury setbacks, of course), he’ll be a legit fantasy arm. The hint of changeups and curves along the way also suggest more than your standard Strider/Greene/Jones approach and I’m here for it. Right now? The Rangers sent him down to the minors with the expectation he’ll be back next week, probably against the Yankees. I think it’s best to wait for Leiter to have a ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?! moment before we commit at such a tense moment of the season. The schedule after is tantalizing, but this was the White Sox – he needs to conquer himself before he can dominate hitters.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:

 

Brayan Bello (BOS) vs TOR (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 97 pitches.

FINALLY. The sinker was backdoor to RHB and it worked, with changeups landing away to LHB, and the slider featured against both RHB and LHB (we saw backfoot sliders executed well!), and this is the dude. KEEP IT GOING YA BEAUTIFUL MAN.

Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) @ PHI (W) – 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 11 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 103 pitches.

Look at The Pasta Pirate GO. A Gallows Pole against the Phils, almost as if he and Mr. Crescendo have a battle between them. The sweeper was devastating to RHB at times, the change and curve worked against LHB, and the four-seamer had extension and HAVAA, but was a bit all over the place (Sup, four walks). He earned enough strikes with the cutter and heater to make it nearly through eight frames though, and we’re obviously going indefinitely with Arrighetti at this point. Strap in, y’all.

Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 105 pitches.

Thanks Peralta, we needed this one. His heater was much more centralized than usual, going more BSB than East-West, which outlines better timing for his cross-body mechanics. It led to ten whiffs between changeups and sliders and we love it.

Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ SEA (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 26 pitches.

So we saw Tyler Alexander for 4.1 IP of 5 ER and yada yada yada. Wanna know what’s cool? Rasmussen’s four-seamer had 19″ inches of iVB at 97 mph. NOT IN TAMPA BAY. It was an elite four-seamer that he threw…six times. BUT CAN YOU IMAGINE?! Don’t expect him to be stretched to start until 2025.

Matt Foster (CHW) vs TEX (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 21 pitches.

I refuse to, um, foster a relationship with bullpen games. I’m actually really supportive of those who are good foster parents and choose that life to help kids who need it the most, but I legit couldn’t help myself. I hope Matt’s family had good…Foster Parents. NICK PLEASE.

Mason Englert (DET) vs LAA (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 33 pitches.

Did Kenta Maeda perform well? Sure, it was 4.1 IP of 0 ER (2 unearned) and five strikeouts while vulturing a Win, but the slider didn’t earn a single whiff. I really can’t get behind this gamble.

Chris Bassitt (TOR) @ BOS (L) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 102 pitches.

Whoa. This was the most intentional I’ve seen Bassitt with pitch separation for a long time. Canibal McSanchez with low sinkers and sweepers (seven whiffs on the latter!), mixed with the usual sprinkle of various peripheral weapons. I love it. I genuinely wonder if this is the Bassitt we get moving forward and it could be a huge tweak that makes a large impact in September. You got this, Bassitt…

Chris Sale (ATL) @ MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 109 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Yeah, he’s the Cy Young. Not Wheeler? Oh dang. Maybe him if he gets more innings…

Andrew Heaney (TEX) @ CHW (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 71 pitches.

Atta boy Heaney. The strikeouts aren’t great, but he warmed up for Tuesday and was still able to turn on the jets for Wednesday’s start long enough to go five frames. Don’t judge him for this one, but you can yell at the weather for pushing him a day later in the schedule, forcing him to face the Yankees now. That’s not what you want and Heaney isn’t a must hold through that.

Corbin Burnes (BAL) @ LAD (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 94 pitches.

It’s about dang time you got that cutter down and…what’s this?! Your cutter added FIVE INCHES OF DROP?! Uhhhh, he tweaked something y’all. And it’s AWESOME. Enjoy the Gallows Pole, you earned it. The strikeouts will return if that drop is for real.

Fernando Cruz (CIN) vs OAK (ND) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 48% CSW, 42 pitches.

This was a bullpen game, but are the Reds considering Cruz as a starter in the future? I kinda hope so – that splitter was absurd at 60% CSW (you read that right), while the four-seamer has great shape and needs to be wrangled in a bit to keep the walks at bay. But zero walks! Uhhhh 7/16 fastball strikes. Oh. I’m keeping an eye on it.

David Festa (MIN) vs ATL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 88 pitches.

The slider hath arrived! We saw low 20-25% usage in previous starts and he went 47% sliders here. And what do ya know, a King Cole followed as the heater and changeup fell in line behind it. It’s a great schedule moving forward, beginning with the Rays and you should be rolling with Festa after this display.

Osvaldo Bido (OAK) @ CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 84 pitches.

Ayyy you went through with the Vargas Rule and it paid off. Now you get the easier schedule and you’re gung ho, even if Bido’s heaters were not well spotted at all. Let’s give thanks to the changeup and slider for working well and hope it sticks as the schedule softens.

Kyle Freeland (COL) vs MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.

Ha, that’s a Gold Star for you, even if was a Blame it on the Marlins. Gotta celebrate the victories you can get, you know?

MacKenzie Gore (WSN) vs NYY (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 102 pitches.

There he is! 96/97 mph velocity with eight whiffs on the heater, secondaries for strikes and located far better, and the only real blemish was an 0-0 hamburger helper heater to Jazz that was launched over the fence. You sound like you’re hungry. I’M STARVING. I have a larger appetite for Gore to keep pitching like this the rest of the way and…like hearing My Girl getting louder in the distance, I can feel the temptations nearing as Gore gets the Marlins up next. It’s likely a Dennis and with his track record, you’re safe not jumping in after one start, possibly picking him up after that one.

Luis Castillo (SEA) vs TBR (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.

Aces gonna earn a Gallows Pole with a Philly, with a four-seamer that went 15/63 whiffs. He really didn’t want to do more with his slider and changeup, eh? I think that’s what prevented this from being something grander and it’s a little annoying.

Andre Pallante (STL) vs SDP (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 104 pitches.

That Cardinals Devil Magic (TM) y’all. Thank you Koufax for keeping that ERA down and this truly does feel like a Vargas Rule with a good trio of matchups ahead – @MIL, CIN, PIT. Seems like you’re locked into this if he’s on your roster at this point, but if you don’t want the ratio risk with low strikeouts, you don’t have to do this.

Paul Skenes (PIT) vs CHC (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 82 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Even when he’s not at his best, we love the guy. I wonder if he’ll be limited down the stretch. I sure hope not.

Walker Buehler (LAD) vs BAL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.

Hmmmm. The approach is there – four-seamers were upstairs with good shape, curves underneath, cutters at the edges – but it wasn’t electric, you know? I wonder if he adds the slider, too, then he’ll nail it down. This is better, though. It’s the first start I’ve seen all year where he actually looked capable of executing a good plan.

Chris Flexen  (CHW) vs TEX (L) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 99 Pitches.

A near VVVPQS is commendable for Flexen…except he doesn’t get the mark since Crochet tossed four pitches before this game was suspended, turning Flexen into a reliever. Just you and me, mirror. Look at THIS muscle. And THIIIIIIIS muscle.

Joe Musgrove (SDP) @ STL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.

Save for a fourth inning that came with four hits to score all three runs (two BABIP grounders, one well located sweeper for a double, and a poor heater), Musgrove cruised to six frames. The harder slider wasn’t as legit as before, but he’s in a good place. Stop using that heater so much, though. I really don’t like it and seeing it used in two strike counts in hittable spots just doesn’t make sense to me. It’s his most hittable pitch, after all.

Griffin Canning (LAA) @ DET (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.

This was a standard Canning affair and you should really stop considering Canning as as streamer.

Max Meyer (MIA) @ COL (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 96 pitches.

Hey, at least we finally saw a double-digit whiff game from the slider? Yay? Nay. Okay, Mr. Horse. NEIGH IT IS.

Luis Severino (NYM) @ ARI (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.

Awwww, he got Singled Out and a pair of HRs got in the way as his sweeper, cutter, and change each earned strikeouts on top of the fastballs. I think we keep rolling with Severino, especially if he still has the strikeout ability across multiple pitches.

Michael Wacha (KCR) @ CLE (ND) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.

This wasn’t the game to start Wacha. The final two/three are the ones to target and you could chase a start hosting the Guardians up next + the Twins after if you want before then. That’s for 15-teamers, and in 12-teamers, I’m resisting until later.

Carlos Rodón (NYY) @ WSN (L) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.

He ran into trouble in the first two frames, but generally pitched well and I think got a bit unlucky here, mostly getting Singled Out save for Crews’ first HR. Don’t alter the course y’all.

Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs NYM (ND) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 89 pitches.

He was all around the edges of the zone, but the Mets roughed him up for 4 ER in the fifth, and that’s your ballgame. He’s fine, that was just a bad inning. SQUAWK! Oh right, the Dodgers and Astros are next, thanks random parrot-sounding cat. You can drop Erod y’all.

Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs KCR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 99 pitches.

That’s a pretty terrible line for a game with 11/60 slider whiffs (55% SwStr rate?!). Damage came from everything else (and one slider) downstairs and you’re wondering if Bibee is losing his charm. Eh, I think he’s kinda the same? You’re not going to bench him moving forward and we just hold our breath and hope for the best.

Kyle Harrison (SFG) @ MIL (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 92 pitches.

Huh. I would have figured a start with fourteen called strikes on the curveball that Harrison would have prevented so many walks and performed a bit better. Welp, that’s Harrison for ya. Can’t trust him, even when the breaker helps more than usual.

Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs HOU (L) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 13 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 93 pitches.

Yuuuuuuuuup. Just three of his starts this year have returned 2 ER or fewer. Imagine if the Phillies had kept Turnbull in the rotation…

Kyle Hendricks (CHC) @ PIT (ND) – 1.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 70 pitches.

Hendricks located changeups well and that was the result. Oh. Yeah. That’s not the life you want, is it. I feel like this is what we expected close to a decade ago. Time always wins.

 

Game of the Day

 

Cade Povich vs. Bobby Miller – Please tell me Miller has a slider cooking today. WE NEED THIS.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)