Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Stephen Kolek (KCR) @ CLE (ND) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
I’m shocked to report that after yesterday’s fantastic line of 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches (ND) in Cleveland, Stephen Kolek has now allowed 2 ER or fewer in each of his last starts while returning at least six frames in each. But how many strikeouts? Okay fine, thirteen total. This sure sounds like a Koufax situation that isn’t to be trusted. Wow, you’re just going to spoil the whole featured pitcher takeaway right away? Sure am. Welp, at least let me tell you why.
There’s simply nothing exceptional in his arsenal. The 94 mph four-seamer returned a trio of strikeouts without a single whiff (not sustainable). The kick-change has good deph, but returned few chases and just a 52% strike rate. His 87 mph gyro slider is fine but not placed well. His sweeper has some intrigue with its depth at 82 mph if he can locate it. The cutter has potential as a strike pitch, while the sinker is a little unruly. It’s just… fine.
Maybe the home park gives him some points when he’s fortunate to have it. Or his ability to hold a 56% zone rate across all his pitches forces batters to be more aggressive than they are used to. In the end, he appears to be a deep-league Toby at best without the clear path to being more. He’s missing at least one piece, if not two, to be firmly on our radars for a 2026 breakout.
That leaves us with now and what we see is a date hosting the Mariners + heading to California to face the Angels. Vargas Rule him if you must, though I have to believe you have better options.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs HOU (W) – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 100 pitches.
Incredible. When Gausman is cooking, he’s cookin’. I guess he’s upgraded to Cherry Bomb with his two-pitch approach the same as ever, while I’m not sure I’ve seen a single pitch return over 20 called strikes all season, but there it is. 22/55 called strikes for Gausman’s four-seamer, mixed with 11/12 outs on balls in play. Incredible.
Randy Vásquez (SDP) vs COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 90 pitches.
I failed you all. I underrated the impact of Rockie Road and weighed the scale with Vásquez’s ability in mind. I’M SORRY. No, this doesn’t outline an add – the Mets are next and I’m not sure there is another matchup outside of Reds Carpet that I’d even consider Randy for.
Shane Smith (CHW) vs TBR (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.
Wow. Smith threw some very hittable fastballs and not a whole lot else to LHB, and got away with it. I’m not enthused enough by this to be gung-ho for the Orioles next, but sure, it could be fine.
Ryan Weathers (MIA) vs WSN (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 68 pitches.
Yeaaaah, he’s dope. He pumped 99 mph for a big strikeout to strand two in the third, got the fastball inside to RHB, featured a ton of changeups (not the greatest ones, but good enough) and had the slider + sweeper for LHB. I was hesitant to start Weathers due to the pitch count and look at that. He matched the 68 pitches of his last rehab start and still managed to produce across five frames to secure a Win. Gotta love it. He gets Coors next and I’m adding him for it. I’m a little sad he’s going to miss @TEX after in favor of @PHI, but I think you’re going to want him there, too.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs DET (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.
Despite needing a coat of polish across the cutter, curve, and sinker, Schlittler killed it for six innings of solid numbers. That 98 mph heater is just too good of a foundation. Now it’s easy street with @MIN, @BAL, BAL remaining and you best be holding on. There is a question if he’ll see that last start considering how he’s positioned himself as the clear SP #3 for the Yankees entering the playoffs. There’s even an argument for SP #2 just to keep the southpaws separate.
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs KCR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 105 pitches.
Dude. Gavin. You RASCAL! You found your command! The curve was down, sweeper outside corner to RHB, four-seamers upstairs… it’s beautiful. I guess we’re in for two more outings this season, both against the Tigers, yeah?
Cade Povich (BAL) vs PIT (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.
The changeup is alive and well, with curveballs down-and-in + high heaters to RHB. This works, y’all. I’m not as amped for @CHW next, but he should still be of consideration as a Toby streamer.
Johan Oviedo (PIT) @ BAL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.
Hold up. We just had a 10/36 whiff game for Oviedo’s four-seamer due to consistent high location. Whoa. Now, it did come with a 19% NC Rate and 56% strike rate (propelling those walks), but the simple fact that he has a high intent (and inside sinkers to RHB!) gets me all kinds of excited. Remember, he has legit extension and HAVAA (a little worse on both accounts in this one, but that may be normal variance). Too bad it’s the Cubs next, though I’d consider him after in Cincinnati.
MacKenzie Gore (WSN) @ MIA (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 78 pitches.
It was a surprise start for Gore and after some trouble in the first for both runs, he settled down nicely. Not peak Gore, but good enough to consider two starts against Atlanta to end the year, given he’ll be above 80 pitches for both.
McCade Brown (COL) @ SDP (L) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 81 pitches.
Brown has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team. This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter.
Tyler Holton (DET) @ NYY (L) – 1.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 23 pitches.
Holton opened for Sawyer Gipson-Long who got trucked by the Yankees for 7 ER in 2.1 IP. Oh no. Maybe we don’t consider him against Cleveland for his final two starts… But I want to so badly! I know. Just make sure the first one is good first, okay?
Ian Seymour (TBR) @ CHW (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 90 pitches.
Womp womp. The SlySox deflated the sails of excited managers with two runs in the first, then had a third run come in the sixth after Seymour got the hook. Careful, Icarus. The changeup is still great, the four-seamer + cutter combo is fine, and the attack to LHB was a bit wonky without a good feel for his sweeper. The Jays are next, followed by Boston in Tampa and neither seems like what you’re looking for.
David Peterson (NYM) @ PHI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 86 pitches.
You just had to allow that third run, didn’t you? A slider over the plate cost him two runs in the fourth, when he should have just thrown the dang curve that worked so well on the day. We’re talking 80% strikes and 10/20 whiffs. 50% SWSTR RATE. Yeesh. He’s a wild card and you don’t know what he’ll have cooking on a given day. It makes his next outing against the Padres a toss-up. Good luck.
José Soriano (LAA) @ SEA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 96 pitches.
The poster-boy HIPSTER couldn’t come through despite the @TEA benefits and many sinker + splitter strikes. So it goes, you know what you’re agreeing to when letting him fly.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs NYM (W) – 8.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 97 pitches.
He got bamboozled in the first with four runs off getting Singled Out (about one bad pitch in the lot) and was saved by doubling up a runner from a line-drive comebacker. Thing is, Luzardo followed the frame with seven perfect innings. Seriously. He allowed five hits in his first six batters, then 7.2 IP of perfection, en route to a King Cole. Pretty wild, eh? It’s almost like he’s a Cherry Bomb even inside the games themselves. I’d be careful with the Dodgers up next, but he may get the final start of his season against the Marlins if the Phillies are cool letting their SP #3 (#4 to avoid too many concurrent southpaws?) pitch in full before the season ends.
Cristian Javier (HOU) @ TOR (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
It was the Jays and a bit of a long shot for this to go swimmingly. That said, Javier’s changeup and sinker were legit. The slowball landed down constantly and the new sinker landed on the inside edge to RHB constantly for a trio of outs. I love this. What I don’t like is the four-seamers’ feral command + a sub 50% strike rate on both the curve and sweeper. The pieces are there, making for a chance for across-the-board production with each start. I’m kinda tempted for his next one against the Rangers, and it’s up to you to determine if the risk is worth your time.
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs LAA (ND) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 99 pitches.
The worst ERA of the night was still productive with a Gallows Pole and eleven strikeouts, fueled by Miller’s elevated four-seamer and its 14/56 whiffs and a highly effective splitter underneath. He wasn’t fortunate when contact was made and y’all should feel good about Miller and his four-seamer command. Eleven strikeouts and zero walks, y’all.
Game of the Day
Jacob deGrom vs. Jonah Tong – It’s deGrom’s return to Citi Field + Tong makes his third outing. Watch this game, y’all.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
