Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Taj Bradley (MIN) @ TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
There are certain players who I simply cannot endorse and Taj Bradley is one of them. This isn’t me stating a refusal to keep an open mind or that I wear my trusty blindfold for his starts (who doesn’t have one of those?), it’s more that we know who the man is. He’s an arm who doesn’t know where his pitches are going to go and he’ll fluctuate heavily between rough outings with many baserunners and what we saw on Wednesday night in not-Arlington-but-it’ll-always-be-Arlington-to-me: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
No, this wasn’t something brand new and exciting that we should take down for next year. It’s still a 96 mph heater that can fill up the zone without any clear direction. The secondaries are also hit-or-miss with cutters going just 58% strikes (two strikeouts!) and splitters at 50% strikes (zero whiffs on the latter), while the curve was incredibly efficient. Six strikeouts and six whiffs on fifteen thrown. That’s how you prevent a laborious outing where they keep hitting the fastball foul until you walk them or they lace it into the field: Execute secondaries at the right time to end at-bats.
So please, dip, dive, duck, and avoid Bradley next year unless you want to have Advil at the ready for the entire year. This migraine hasn’t disappeared in weeks…
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Garrett Crochet (BOS) @ TOR (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Yeah, this was a stupid good season. He was my #2 entering the year, then I suggested trading him for .95 cents on the dollar in May after the extension was much lower. Whoops. WHATEVER, glad he’s a stud.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs MIA (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 103 pitches.
Managers needed this one. Luzardo ends the year with a 3.03 ERA… if we remove the back-to-back starts of 20 ER in 5.2 innings. YOU CAN’T DO THAT! I can, because I’m not removing his impact, I’m removing what was so obviously an outlier and noise for our assessment of the player. BUT THAT VOLATILITY IS STILL THERE! Fine. Raise it to a 3.40 ERA, just not the ridiculous 3.92 mark, you know? Happy Gallows Pole day!
Luis Severino (ATH) vs HOU (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 85 pitches.
Severino moved up a day and obliterated the Astros when they needed some time to breathe. I don’t think we’ll find ourselves chasing Severino next year given that the current plan is for them to still play in Sacramento, and I didn’t see enough growth across the season to latch onto a breakout next year.
Paul Skenes (PIT) @ CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 85 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Skenes has pitched in the majors for two seasons and 320 innings. He held an ERA under 2.00 in both. What an absolute MONSTER.
Andrew Alvarez (WSN) @ ATL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 83 pitches.
He was so close. SO CLOSE! I wonder if the Nationals will lean on Alvarez next season and move away from Parker, Irving, etc. I’m not suggesting he’ll be a sleeper arm if that happens, but if the Sober Southpaw (A.A.) is in the rotation, I can see him being a surprise stream here and there. He’ll go well past pick 400 and that’s totally fine.
Shane Baz (TBR) @ BAL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 49 pitches.
Just 49 pitches?! COME ON. The dude was CRUISING. No hits! A few lost batters with 60%+ strikes on all four pitches! Nah, we just wanted to reduce his season workload. ONE. MORE. INNING. Rays, you’re just cruel. I’m in on Baz next season with Tropicana returning, which will be loads better than George Steinbrenner Field. That four-seamer is about to go bonkers.
Chad Patrick (MIL) @ SDP (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 57 pitches.
Patrick was pushed earlier than expected and only went three frames in a start we wouldn’t have chased anyway. He’s been a surprise in Milwaukee, along with Woodruff, and Priester, and the entire team, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s granted a longer role next year. That said, his lack of variety in the arsenal plays right into the Brewers’ love for early hooks and avoiding third-time-through-the-order penalties. He’s a deep sleeper, I guess.
Fraser Ellard (CHW) @ NYY (ND) – 0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 30 pitches.
He opened for a Jonathan Cannon bombardment, who allowed a three-run blast to Judge, but exhibited a new kick-change that was pretty dang hot and led to a high strikeout mark: 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 75 pitches (L). Then we got to the real focus, Tyler Alexander and his two frames of silence, but with Cannon, this is kinda cool. Maybe there’s a waiver pick up somewhere in the season.
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs COL (W) – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 93 pitches.
Ummm YES. Castillo just left a mark on his 2025 season, taking full advantage of Rockie Road to return 8/31 whiffs on his slider – the most I’ve seen on the pitch in ages. What a sweet desert on a long season. Y’all know my thoughts about 2026 on Castillo and how he’ll get overdrafted in my eye, but this? This was beautiful.
Max Fried (NYY) vs CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 107 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. The injury scares of old were nowhere to be found for Fried in 2025 (save a momentary blister), and he was the southpaw we dreamed of in our drafts: 2.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 189 strikeouts, and nineteen Wins (most in the majors) across 195.1 innings. Like a rock. Castillo? Nah, that’s a whole 1.00 ERA worse with 30 fewer strikeouts, eight fewer Wins, and eight points of WHIP. No, the car commercial. Ohhhh. Right.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs DET (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 105 pitches.
You rascal. Seriously. Are you going to convince me to jump back in next year? Or have you suddenly done so well that you’re going to go inside the Top 125 overall picks? The weird thing here is that the cutter and change did not do so well in this one, each recording sub 60% strikes with just 6/50 whiffs between them. Nay, this was a kind Koufax day as Bibee willed Cleveland toward another victory. What is going on in that clubhouse?!
Blake Snell (LAD) @ ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. HOT BLAKE SUMM–It’s now the Fall. Oh. Right. FINE. This was legit BSB work from Snell, by the way, with four-seamers in the upper half all by itself, and changeups devouring the lower third of the zone + curves and sliders sprinkled off the bottom edge. Just how we like it.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 74 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Funny enough, this was the best four-seamer command I’ve seen from deGrom in months. Maybe all season. Now that deGrom just threw 172 innings (right?!), where does he rank for next year? Is it a pure avoid given the history? He just sat 97.7 mph in his final start of the year with 6/16 changeup whiffs and 6/22 slider whiffs. I think he’s just fine, FWIW. I don’t know what to do.
Dylan Cease (SDP) vs MIL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 100 pitches.
Oh NOW you come through?! He still had a 1.60 WHIP. Okay fine, that’s true. It was the same Cease we’ve always seen with sliders and four-seamers leading the way + curves and sweepers failing to come through. We do see a rare sinker mixed in as well (they helped! 5/9 strikes!), but let’s be real. It’s the same Cease. Maybe we’ve reached the point where batters can handle two-pitch arms consistently now, if they don’t spot both pitches well. Just a thought. ANYWAY, Cease’s value with fluctuate based on where he signs, and I personally will likely be out on the fella. It’s just too much haze.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs KCR (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 66 pitches.
HA. Leave it to Kikuchi to give you the goods after a full season of living like a HIPSTER. That’s a King Cole with actual pitch separation for once, which really doesn’t make any sense. That four-seamer was beautifully spotted inside to RHB here for 36%, while the changeup and slider looked repulsed by the inside edge and instead landed away or at the bottom of the zone. Where was this all season?! He’s still with the Angels for another two seasons (unless dealt), making him a clear avoid for 2026, in my view.
Stephen Kolek (KCR) @ LAA (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 94 pitches.
Atta boy Kolek! Yes, I still have my serious doubts about his future performance, but the man has been on a heater and the matchup was good. He didn’t pitch absurdly well to the point that I’m considering him for 2026, but thanks for the six frames of decent ratios.
Sonny Gray (STL) @ SFG (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 99 pitches.
Way to close out the season with Sonny skies. I’m shocked to see Sonny with a 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the year, but then again, he had five games of 6+ ER allowed, which is likely noise and should be better next season. He’ll likely have a great defense behind him in 2026, while pitching in a good park, and feast on the Pirates and Reds Carpet often. I hope those ratios keep his value down as I don’t think you’re going to drop Gray at all next year.
Hunter Greene (CIN) vs PIT (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I wonder where we should rank Greene for next season. He seems like such an obvious injury risk with his 99/100 mph average four-seamer + he’s still four-seamer/slider for 85% of his pitches. That said, he’s really really good. Should we just not overthink this? Also, I feel for the Reds fans watching this one. To claw back a run in the eighth and tie it in the ninth, allow a run in the top of the tenth, tie it again in the tenth, then lose 4-3 in the eleventh…that’s rough.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs NYM (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 86 pitches.
Phew. You got your Win and decent ratios. Sure, no QS and three Ks are not pumping your first, and if he didn’t leave so many heaters and changeups over the middle of the plate to RHB, maybe he could have done more. But I digress. This closes an incredible season for all us BOYD BOYZ and I’m going to quickly tell you that he’ll be overdrafted next year. This was great, don’t get me wrong, and I’m fine adding him in the last round, but he’s going to go inside the Top 200 in all likelihood, and that’s just not for me. It’s just fastball changeup and the elite defense + deadened ball did the rest.
JT Brubaker (SFG) vs STL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 68 pitches.
This is honestly better than it had any right to be for Coffee Cakes. We also saw Carson Seymour appear for three shutout frames with four strikeouts and that too should not have gone that well. Welp, I wonder where Brubaker finds himself in camp next year. Come on down, Mr. Cakes! Oh no. Not Colorado…
Bryce Elder (ATL) vs WSN (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
I wonder how many leagues Elder won for managers this year. That means he also lost leagues for those who didn’t have him, too. Ha! I guess that’s true. Boy did the Nationals’ LHB go fishing like when I’m a good uncle and play cards with my nephews, chasing over 50% of the sliders they saw out of the zone, for 6/22 whiffs in total. There’s no way I’m buying this for next year, but hey, I’m happy for Elder and this lovely run.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs LAD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.
Despite his solid season, I wasn’t down to let Nelson fly against the Dodgers, but nine strikeouts with a Bailey Special WORKS FOR ME. No, he didn’t find that secondary yet, he just pumped 66% four-seamers for 72% strikes and had enough strikes with curves and cutters (and a few sliders) to get through it. You know, I think I’m down to draft Nelson next year. Batters can’t touch his heater and he’s set up for a true breakout if he unlocks that pitch. One of the rare few who really needs a pitch. Don’t many? Sorry, if you listened to The Craft Podcast with me and recurring guest Eno Sarris, you’ll remember us chatting about the minute number of SPs who learned a new pitch and had success this season. Kinda wild.
Jack Flaherty (DET) @ CLE (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.
Sigh. Thus ends an absurdly frustrating season with Flaherty. I’m not sure where he lands for next season and if I’d jump back in, considering his slider and curveball command have been rather consistent. He’s just not doing enough with them (even when the heater is at 94 mph!). Don’t draft “HIPSTERS”. Draft arms you can understand quickly.
Tyler Wells (BAL) vs TBR (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 79 pitches.
Noooooo. Wells was quietly helping managers since his return and this was the final order. Just one more, buddy. One more! Sadly, the Rays sent all the LHB his way and despite a fair number of whiffs across cutters and changeups (9/33!), too many slowballs and four-seamers caught the plate. Consider him a great 15-team Toby play for next year and a constant streamer for your squads.
Max Scherzer (TOR) vs BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 86 pitches.
Nick, you said his last start was a fluke. It was! But he got bamboozled in the first again. Yeah, that was frustrating, too. A solo shot in the fifth was the final dagger, but the man was Singled Out! He deserved better(ish)! Ish? Well, he threw some terrible heaters over the plate to right-handers and those two hits were more deserved than others. But still! Better than this! Where are you Koufax?!
Hunter Brown (HOU) @ ATH (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 86 pitches.
Blegh. The Astros need you, Hunter. We all need you. I’m surprised he turned away from the four-seamer to feature it just 21% of the time, especially with his sinker getting blasted for four hits with its mediocre movement. I’m going to have to double down and be lower than consensus on Brown despite a 2.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 185 innings this year. A 28% strikeout rate with a 12.5% SwStr rate and a 4.90 PLV just doesn’t add up y’all. IT’S A TARP! Sorry, my friend here is dyslexic. Yes, don’t overpay for Hunter.
Ryan Weathers (MIA) @ PHI (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches.
88 pitches?! Where did that come from?! He tossed 68 in his final rehab start and his Still ILL, but the Marlins wanted to let Weathers compete for a Win, I guess. Unfortunately, he surrendered a trio of solo shots via heaters and a poor changeup, and that’s your ball game. He gets a surprising amount of sink on his four-seamer at 96/97 mph (nearly four inches less than what his arm-slot would suggest. Huh.), which makes me wonder if he should actually be landing low with it more than elevating. It would play with his changeup well + sweeper. Huh. Welp, gotta wait until next year. Maybe worth a late round flier?
Tanner Gordon (COL) @ SEA (L) – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 70 pitches.
Womp womp. You can’t say womp womp for a Rockies starter. YES I CAN. I had a tinge of hope for Gordon to exhibit the surprise strikeout numbers of a few of his recent outings against a Mariners team locked for the playoffs and @TEA. BUT FINE. Gordon has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team. This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter.
Jonah Tong (NYM) @ CHC (L) – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 56 pitches.
Oh no. Jonah. That four-seamer was too dang hittable over the plate and rarely elevated, while the split-change was good with a share of mistakes that got punished. The man was Singled Out for a HAISTBMBWT?! and the Mets fans are struggling. Go find one and give them a hug.
Game of the Day
Troy Melton vs. Parker Messick – This Detroit/Cleveland situation is BANANAS. And the Reds/Mets. HOW.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photos by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire and Andy Kuo/Unsplash | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
