Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) @ PHI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 81 pitches.
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Alright, let’s review a game of pitching performances one last time this season.
Let’s see how every SP did Sunday:
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) @ PHI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 81 pitches.
What a September this fella had, eh? The splitter became a major force once again in his final outing of the year, propelling a Gallows Pole with 8/21 whiffs on the pitch, sitting low in the bottom third of the zone to LHB. His four-seamer is coming with a fair amount of hop on it as well at 18-19″ of vert, which is plenty more than expected despite the 46 degree arm angle, and his slider was… serviceable to RHB with a sprinkly to LHB. I have a touch of fascination with SWR given the high vert heater than can live upstairs + a splitter feel that he’s had consistently as of late, though I have a few concerns. First, his fastball velocity fluctuates plenty and I hope he can hold 94/95 mph throughout 2026 instead of 92/93 mph that we saw here. Second, it’s a splitter. Third, the slider is lackluster and I need something more from the pitch to lean heavily into Woods Richardson. I imagine you’ll see some sleeper posts on SWR this off-season and I’ll warn you now: It’s highly unlikely he becomes a stable arm for your teams. Oh, and sorry I didn’t give you the proper SP Roundup lede treatment. It’s a special day, alright? You still got that awesome graphic.
Shane Smith (CHW) @ WSN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 73 pitches.
Well hot dang! I was this close to making Smith my streamer instead of Morton, creating a tie with PL Bot for Streaming Wins this season. Sigh… I’m not too shocked the White Sox didn’t let him go over 73 pitches, but the fact he went six frames is still a little shocking, though he kept under the 150 inning threshold for the year. Is he a sleeper for next season? Maybe. One thing I’m starting to realize is breakout pitchers typically come in two major variants: Volume arms who increase their strikeout rates or strikeout arms who increase volume (there are other minor ones, I’ll save that talk for later). After all, a true “breakout” is a 25%+ strikeout arm with solid ratios over, let’s say, 170 innings. With Smith, he’s already at 23-24% strikeouts (not ~20%) and he’s in position for a full 30+ start workload for next year. That said, the ratios will need some help without more from his secondaries. The curve wasn’t the LHB dominance here and the kick-change was featured just 12% of the time (exclusively to LHB). Yes, I dig the 96 mph heater that he’s able to sustain throughout starts now, and its high intent + sinkers inside to RHB seems like a good foundation, but I need something more to heavily consider a starter on the White Sox.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs MIN (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 48% CSW, 60 pitches.
We knew he would be limited and duuuuude. 17 Whiffs and a 48% CSW across just 60 pitches?! Absolutely bananas. Are we diminishing or praising this stupid high King Cole for the lower pitch count? I want to say diminish given the smaller sample (29/60 CSW), but that is absurd efficiency. ANYWAY, Sánchez is a perfect example of the “volume arm with more strikeouts” expressed in Smith’s blurb, boosting his strikeout rate from 20% to 26%. And better ratios and innings per start. If you strike out more batters, you will have better ratios, especially if you’re not removing many strikes from the equation. Now we wonder how sustainable his massive jumps in sinker and changeup putaway rates are…
Logan Webb (SFG) vs COL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 78 pitches.
You just told me that raising your strikeout rate improves your ratios. Well, if you sinker Hit Luck ballons from +2 hits to +20 hits, you’re going to keep the same WHIP in the end. His second half was far different from his first and I’m still struggling to figure out exactly where to rank Webb. It’ll be out soon.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) @ SEA (ND) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.
Well that’s a lot better than I expected. Where was this adrenaline in front of your fans against the Giants?! I truly wish I didn’t have so much uncertainty about the choices Kershaw has made, and I could just celebrate the pitch of a generation for his unparalleled consistency as a pitcher. Welp, that slider was as great as we’ve seen all year at 42% usage and 85% strike as he hurled sub 89 mph heaters. Fun fact: Kershaw’s curveball gets all the attention for his signature pitch, but in actuality, his slider is what made him unstoppable. It was such a pretty curve, though. Yes. It was.
Javier Assad (CHC) vs STL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 79 pitches.
Oh dang, that’s swell. Assad stepped up for the Cubs when they needed innings this year (again) and I wonder how much he’ll be involved in their plans for next year. I’d be surprised if Assad became a staple of the rotation out of camp as I continue to struggle wrapping my head around his success of poor 92 mph sinkers over the plate + decent cutters and sweepers to RHB with a whole lot of blegh hanging out over the plate to LHB, and I imagine the Cubs don’t want to push their luck either. But their defense is elite! Maybe that’s the ticket. Maybe the Cubs have realized with Taillon, Steele, Rea, Assad, Boyd, etc. that getting guys who throw strikes and generally keep the ball in the yard is the market inefficiency… if you have an elite defense. Interesting.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs NYM (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 83 pitches.
Oh Cabrera. You rascal. Way to go and destroy the hearts of Mets fans everywhere, especially with that sinker to Alonso that was literally the hardest hit ball by a Met this season. We all watched Koufax arrive with a glimmer in his eye as it soared into the left fielder’s glove, nearly carrying him toward the wall. I’m heavily considering targeting Cabrera next season, especially if he’s playing for another team. His biggest drawback isn’t his own skills, nay, it’s the team around him with a poor defense and low(ish) Win chance. In addition, I have a feeling that another team can help find a tweak here and there to bring out the most of his arsenal.
Cole Ragans (KCR) @ ATH (ND) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 72 pitches.
PEW PEW PEW. Ragans is the perfect example of an injured pitcher returning at the end of the year, making him safer than other “injury-prone” arms the following season. But he didn’t get surgery. Still, it’s a thing. His command came back already with his heater and here’s to hoping the changeup and breakers are on point by spring. He’s one of the elites, y’all.
Kyle Leahy (STL) @ CHC (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 8% CSW, 39 pitches.
For 39 pitches, that’s pretty cool. Congrats on getting the start, Leahy, that must have felt cool. As for the skills, he’s actually kinda interesting. Seven feet of extension at 95/96 mph (likely 94 mph if stretched out more) with more sinker and cut action than expected, but not a ton, and pairs it with an actual 92 mph cutter that’s labeled as a slider + a few 12-6 curves, sinkers, sweepers, and changeups. That’s not enough to get me amped, sadly. Maybe in season as a rare streamer if he gets the shot? Before Mathews? And Hence? Yeah yeah yeah, I know. Probably not.
Sean Manaea (NYM) @ MIA (ND) – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 38 pitches.
Oh Manaea. You simply can’t be incredible with just a four-seamer & sweeper like you were last year. No, I don’t have faith in this unless that changeup returns.
Charlie Morton (ATL) vs PIT (ND) – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 23 pitches.
Apparently, Chris Sale told Morton he wanted him to get the start, confounding all of us and making Morton the opener in the end. As for Sale? A standard AGA performance, of course – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 96 pitches (W) – while sitting 94.8 mph. How’s that to show everyone you’re healthy for next season? Yeah, but how long will he go into the season? That’s another story. For another time.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) @ LAA (ND) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 54 pitches.
The man threw far more fastballs than usual and found the zone. That’s cool. Sure don’t expect this to work out next year, nor with Colton Gordon, who followed for 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 68 pitches (W), though there is more promise there being a southpaw with a changeup. At sub 90 mph. Yeah… No thanks.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs CIN (ND) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 44 pitches.
Aces gonna to get limited as expected. The Brewers went reliever-heavy in the end and no, I won’t be underrating Peralta next year. He’s still got it.
Brady Basso (ATH) vs KCR (ND) – 1.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 23 pitches.
He opened for Mitch Spence, who sadly didn’t do the things that got me excited in the spring with 90 mph cutters across 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 K – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 47 pitches. If that pitch gets to 93 mph and stays there while working in the slider and curve? Then we’re talking. Then again, that slider has been way worse this year. Okay, I need more than the velocity. It’s not gonna happen.
Johan Oviedo (PIT) @ ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 71 pitches.
He’s a PEAS in my book and this start didn’t give me much hope as a dark-horse sleeper next year. He’s the kind of arm we talk about early on in the year if he does great things and hope that he can keep that command in future outings. Just note: He’s 95 mph with 7.3 feet of extension and a generally flat attack angle. Just get that thing upstairs and keep the whiffable slider down. YOU CAN DO THIS. No I can’t. Okay, you can SOMETIMES DO THIS.
JP Sears (SDP) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 102 pitches.
Sears went four-seamer heavy at 47% usage (54% to RHB!) and was able to steal a fair number of called strikes, but who cares about that. I need something new! Tangible! GIVE ME A LATCH FOR MY LOVE! I got nothin’, y’all. The Padres clearly just love Mason Miller so much + wanted a little extra SP volume depth. Yay.
Luis Gil (NYY) vs BAL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 79 pitches.
I’m glad we got this start so we could see Gil’s velocity jump back up to 95/96 mph (and not 93.7 mph as it was in his penultimate start against the White Sox. Blegh.). He never quite got his command in check with all three pitches when he returned, though the four-seamer/change was separated well into a near BSB against LHB in this one. But he allowed two solo shots off the fastball. Well yeah, that’s two of 79 pitches. I’m likely out on Gil entering this year given his history as a PEAS, sadly.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) @ NYY (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 69 pitches.
We’re pretty confident in Bradish for next season, right? The slider is still pure filth (12/30 whiffs lol) and I dig the curve with legit drop and separation from the slider at a whopping 85 mph. Pretty rare to see that velocity with -10″ depth. He’s at 95/96 mph as well and the Orioles will win more games next year, rooted in a better rotation that includes Bradish. But he’ll be limited with his innings! Sure, a little. And I need to keep that in consideration when ranking him among his peers, but I expect him to go every five days with a few sub 80 pitch games through five frames along the way.
Cade Brown” data-player-gamedate=”2025-09-28″ data-player-opponent=”SFG” data-player-park=”AWAY” data-player-tags=””>McCade Brown (COL) @ SFG (ND) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 62 pitches.
He’s still kinda interesting to me, though that sinker is weird. It kinda acts like a terrible four-seamer with 13.5″ of vert that is identical to its 13.5″ of horizontal, and I wonder if it’s just getting misclassified due to the arm angle. If he had a better fastball and a second one, I’d be more interested in the rare road game from the neglected Brown with his big curveball, gyro slider, and 7.2 feet of extension with games that carry 95 mph velocity. Yes, that’s a hypothetical to grant him the status of a rare stream on the road. Yikes.
José De León (BOS) vs DET (ND) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 101 pitches.
Oh wow. A slightly better VVVPQS with eight strikeouts from De León out of nowhere. You know, I can’t say I’m shocked the Red Sox snagged him after he was adored by Kyle Boddy in Cincinnati (Boddy is now with the Sawx!) and it’s all because of that sweet 2.0 HAVAA four-seamer he keeps upstairs. It’s wild to see his breaker classified as a slider at 74/75 mph when it has -14″ horizontal and -6″ drop (sweeper or curve seem far more fitting), but then again, unlike the sweeper or curve that move against the general movement of his pitches (either horizontally or vertically), this slider matches the direction of his four-seamer and cutter. Interesting. Welp, enough of that stuff y’all probably didn’t quite follow, De León is highly unlikely to be the breakout play of 2026 unless the velocity increases or he can dot the edges with regularlity – all assuming he even gets the longshot chance to start consistently in the first place.
Patrick Corbin (TEX) @ CLE (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
He didn’t quite end the year with a sub 4.00 ERA as he hinted in the summer, but I’m proud of the fella. He was able to return useful innings for the Rangers after years of plodding through the season. That said, why are fastballs back to 38% usage?! Oh, because he didn’t have any feel for his changeup and his slider returned just 50% strikes. Got it. Welcome to the Carrasco period of Corbin’s career, where he’s sure to jump around teams here and there who are simply trying to find some innings.
Brady Singer (CIN) @ MIL (ND) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 71 pitches.
Blegh. It wasn’t even a poor set of skills, he just allowed a two-run blast and the Reds aggressively pulled him. Take note of Singer’s 2025. We had some intrigue early in the season when he leaned a bit more into cutters and four-seamers, then separated out his slider and sweer (a bit, there’s a blur), but in the end, he was the same 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP arm with a 22% strikeout rate that he’s always been. He even had the same HR rate as always, despite heading from Kauffman to Cincinnati. Wild. That’s the deadened ball, for ya. Yeah, that could be it. I guess those who were out on Singer because of expected HR rates were kinda right then? After all, it was the correct assessment without the knowledge of the different baseball. That’s all we can do – make the most logical decision with the information given to us.
Sam Aldegheri (LAA) vs HOU (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 96 pitches.
He’s a southpaw with a changeup, but that extension is terrible at 5.6 feet with a 92 mph heater that looks like 89/90. It’s a terrible heater overall, without a good set of breakings balls, but at least that changeup is well located down-and-away to RHB. That and good slider location to LHB is all he’s got going for him.
Chris Paddack (DET) @ BOS (ND) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 104 pitches.
And thus concludes another frustrating season for Paddack. The conclusion is that same that it has always been: He needs a great third pitch. In fact, he really needs one if his four-seamer refuses to sit 95 mph, let alone 94 mph, let alone 93 mph. It was just 92.6 mph here and he can thank his stellar command for its 38% CSW, though it surrendered one of his two longballs and I’m going to start here. Paddack will have moments against LHB-heavy lineups when the fastball and changeup are cooking. He’s too dang risky against RHB, and even the LHB-heavy condition has a terrible floor. We need to see something masively different next year.
Logan Allen (CLE) vs TEX (ND) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.
Womp womp. Allen was a deep-league play for a QS and it wasn’t meant to be. If he’s not something different next year, then I’m avoiding. I imagine the Guardians would want another arm in his place, honestly.
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs LAD (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 70 pitches.
I have no idea where to place Bryce for next year. On one hand, he has a good shot to start regularly for the Mariners and has a four-seamer that is still a very legit pitch. On the other, he’s proven to be heavily reliant on his home park and the only major step forward has been a new splitter, which is not the answer for consistency. It’s very possible he hits a new gear in the offseason and he’ll have the runway to show the world his new talent next year, and yet, it’s wishcasting. I don’t trust the command and I see a HIPSTER, not a future AGA.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs TBR (ND) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
I was absolutely out on Gausman and it was a major miss for me across the season. And yet, at the end of the first half following his July 12th start, Gausman held a 4.19 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. His second half was absolutely brilliant with a 2.81 ERA and 0.94 WHIP across thirteen starts where he averaged 6.2 innings per game for his first ten (68 IP in 10 starts is incredible). He’s really the same guy always. Will his splitter be there or not next season? WHO KNOWS?! It’s generally safe to say yes. Sure, but it wasn’t there for about 20 months until the second half arrived, FWIW.
Brad Lord (WSN) vs CHW (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 80 pitches.
Womp womp. This was a desperate play for a Win or QS on the final day of the year and Lord didn’t have the command he needs to feature to make 5.8 feet extension at 92/93 mph work. You can forget about him for next year, he’s not it.
Ian Seymour (TBR) @ TOR (ND) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 81 pitches.
That first frame was a disaster for Seymour, allowing a grand slam on a horrible changeup to Kirk in an at-bat where he couldn’t execute the slowball to his liking and Kirk kept fouling off every heater and cutter, waiting for the mistake change. I’m heavily considering Seymour for next year (and all the Rays pitchers, for that matter) as he moves back into Tropicana field, and it’s not out of pocket to suggest Seymour showcases a step forward of some kind in spring after putting in work across the off-season. If he can sit 93 mph instead of 90.7 mph and keep that changeup/cutter working, he’s a Holly for your 12-teamer. Southpaws with changeups…
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ SDP (ND) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 75 pitches.
What a lost year for Pfaadt. It makes you wonder where he goes from here. Do the Sneks even trust him to be a part of their rotation in 2026? Does he lean into the cutter and changeup and four-seamers to LHB with sinkers and sweepers to RHB? I don’t know. What I can tell you, is that he has moments with pristine command that can last a few weeks, but the floor is laaaava. A breakout is possible if he finds a reliable pitch or two, or finds velocity, or SOMETHING (he has the volume floor for it!), and I’d love to hear why that will happen from those who label Pfaadt a sleeper for next year.
Game of the Day
Nick Ranks The Top 200 SP – I’m working on my Top 200 SP ranks and will have them out shortly
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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