Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers for the Plus Pitch Podcast, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
There’s no major news this morning and I’m leaving the first two items from yesterday as they were made public in the mid-to-late afternoon.
Zebby Matthews hurt his ankle while covering first. It’s unknown how it’ll delay him in the spring as of now.
Luis Gil will be out for “at least three months“. I wouldn’t label him as the best IL stash given his inefficiencies last year.
Bubba Chandler was sent to Triple-A by the Pirates. Unless an injury appears, Chandler will not be in the opening day rotation. Womp womp.
Site News
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Check out all the apps, a tease of the PL Fantasy Baseball Pro Dashboard, our new Live Draft Assistant, and so much more.
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Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
STL vs. WSH
PHI vs. TB
NYY vs. MIN
TOR vs. BOS
LAD vs. TEX
NYM vs. HOU
SEA vs. LAA
AZ vs. SEA
Erick Fedde (STL) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 1 K. It’s Fedde. Nothing exciting here at all, he’s not even locating the sinker inside to RHB. What is this.
Tekoah Roby (STL) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 K. Well now, look at you. He pitched in Double-A and dealt with injuries in 2024 and now that we have data, I see the light. 96/97 mph with 18″ of vert and 1.4 HAVAA?! That’s a fantastic heater…if it’s not just a spring mirage from two innings. The curve and slider look to be solid velocity bands underneath as well and at 6.5 extension, this package absolutely works if it holds. Well now, you’re back on the menu, Roby. I don’t expect him this season without time in Triple-A and his injury history, but you have my attention now.
Michael Soroka (WSH) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K. He’s looking great and he’s really forcing the issue for the Nationals with seven clear starters and five spots. Herz is likely off to Triple-A, but does Soroka beat out Ogasawara? Parker? Williams? He was 94/95 mph here with a flat 1.4 HAVAA that lead to 4/28 fastball whiffs (14% SwStr) and a two-plane slider at 81 mph. I dig the inside sinkers to RHB, too, while the changeup…needs work. There is legit 15-teamer value here, though I question if there’s enough sustainable whiffability for 12-teamers, if he were to get the rotation spot. At the very least, the Nationals are sure to let him eat for 85+ pitches regularly should he get the job. I’m circling him in my 15-teamers – he’s always been a command guy and that sinker is the extra pitch that makes him more likely to find six frames than other fringe arms.
Aaron Nola (PHI) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 K. Yes, he’s two ticks down in velocity, but his curve was cooking and he executed solid changeups to LHB – one of his weak points. The velocity should return.
Joe Ross (PHI) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K. He’s still down two ticks at 93 mph (not 95). This isn’t going to go well.
Shane McClanahan (TB) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 4 K. Aces gonna ace. One day I’ll see a sinker against LHB. One day.
Mason Montgomery (TB) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K. He’s stupid in the best way. He tried starting in Triple-A, but it was far worse, resulting in a shift to the pen and where he a monster. I know it could easily regress if he heads back to the rotation…but upper 90s with absurd 20″ of vert and a flat attack angle?! With precision and a deadly slider?! From the left side?! I don’t care, you have to give that a shot again at some point.
Gerrit Cole (NYY) – 2.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 2 K. He threw a lot of pitches down the pipe and has moved away from his slider (two thrown!) for curves and changeups. That said, he only threw five pitches to RHB, which may make this more of a LHB/RHB split of pitch selection. All in all, the velocity is the same at 18″ of vert and you shouldn’t be worried at all.
Joe Ryan (MIN) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 4 K. We’ve seen Ryan increase velocity in two straight springs, but sadly he’s down a tick this year to 93 on the dot. Not too surprising given his focus on healing this off-season that would have him ramp up toward 94 mph once the season starts, but the interesting add here is 29% sinkers to RHB. I’m all for that with its 18″ of horizontal movement. Should make his four-seamer even better against them and prevent more HRs. YES. Now we just gotta figure out the best approach for LHB as sweeper/splitter doesn’t seem like the most reliable pair to support the four-seamer.
Zebby Matthews (MIN) – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 K. He rolled his ankle covering first, pulling him from the game earlier than all of us would have liked. He’s still flirting with 96 mph velocity and leaning on cutters and sliders appropriately, though the command in the very small 13 pitch sample was all over the place. I hope he can return soon and blow our socks off across 3+ frames.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) – 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 2 K. He’s two ticks down and doesn’t have his secondaries working yet. It’s the spring, of course, and we expect this from Bassitt. I actually see him as a 15-teamer Toby who could surprise given his productivity across multiple months last year, sandwiched by struggles. It’s in there.
Dustin May (LAD) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 3 K. 95 mph sinkers with a whole lot of curveballs. We saw some cutters and four-seamers in the bunch that weren’t well spotted, and I should note that the curveball at 85/86 mph is more like a sweeper with little drop relative to the sinker and a whole lot horizontal at -14″. It’s a sweeper. I would love to see the four-seamer try to get upstairs if possible with its 1.6 HAVAA, but in time. I’m very in on May and his 19″ of horizontal ride on 95 mph sinkers + whiffability potential with 93 mph cutters and 85/86 mph sweepers.
Jackson Ferris (LAD) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K. He throws 96 mph from the left side and a super flat 1.5+ HAVAA + an 86 mph slider he features more than other offering, here at 43% usage. That breaker returned 5/15 whiffs, landing down-and-gloveside to both LHB and RHB, and yes, you should know about him. This is a legit starter in the making if that velocity holds.
Brandon Sproat (NYM) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K. I’m not sure why Sproat pitched after his demotion to Triple-A, but regardless, we know he’ll be in Triple-A to start the year with a possible promotion before summer. He reminds me a touch of another Brandon, Mr. Pfaadt with a great sweeper and not a whole lot else, though the heater’s 96 mph velocity with a propensity for sinkers and changeups may be more than what the data shows here. There’s also an 89 mph slider in the mx, too, which could form into a true weapon for both sides of the plate. He’ll be worth the spec add when he arrives.
Ryan Gusto (HOU) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 2 K. Yeah, I’m not interested. 94 mph without anything special with high sweepers + a collection of changeups, cutters, and curves for LHB that all failed to a earn a whiff. Maybe there’s more with a larger sample as he was clearly not on in this one.
Bryan Woo (SEA) – 2.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K. He faced mostly RHB, which is Woo’s jam. The heater went 6/11 whiffs and look at that! 4/16 whiffs on sweepers and sliders. I really hope the sweeper (34% usage against RHB?!) becomes reliable for Woo, though that doesn’t quite answer the LHB problem. At least he’s healthy.
Kyle Hendricks (LAA) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K. 38% changeups as the Prof threw two different changeups. One with a four-seamer grip, one with a sinker grip. That’s fun.
José Suarez (LAA) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K. He’s not throwing harder, just locating well and feasting on RHB with the changeup, per usual. Nothing new, sadly, and consider him a deep stream were he to find some starts and facing a poor RHB-heavy lineup.
Merrill Kelly (AZ) – 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K. Annnnnd the velocity gain is back down to 91.9 mph. Womp womp. No more dreams of 93/94 mph from Kelly and his changeup feel was highly suspect, without a cutter in sight. Weird. Welp, he’s the same Toby we’ve always known and there’s value in that. Carry on.
Jhonathan Díaz (SEA) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K. Oh Seattle, you really don’t want to be in a position to have Díaz starting games this year.
Statcast Games – No TV
TEX vs. SD
CLE vs. AZ
Cody Bradford (TEX) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K. His velocity is up! At…90.3 mph (+0.5). WHAT A STUD. He looks pretty normal here, though I wish his command was a touch better.
Jack Leiter (TEX) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Yep, still dope. 98 mph (+1.6 is more than last start), though it came with 16″ of vert not flirting with 18″. Whatever, 6.7 extension and 1.7 HAVAA still makes it elite if he can locate it upstairs, which he did for 5/16 whiffs. 81% strike rate as well + a slider at 5/7 strikes is gravy + a quick look at a pair of sinkers and changeups that need a little bit of work. The curve is a welcome pitch as well at 3/4 whiffs and I’m rambling now because I’M EXCITED FOR HIM. He won’t start until called up in-season, but I have to wonder if he’s made legit changes that can stick once given the chance again. His command was truly blegh on the big stage last year.
Dylan Cease (SD) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K. He threw six different pitches and didn’t feature a cutter. Hilarious. But fine, the changeup went 5/7 whiffs even if it wasn’t spotted well (surprise!) and also featured six sinkers to RHB to keep them off balance. If that changeup can actually be a strike pitch and not float up in the zone for batters to grin and crush, then it serves the purpose of the cutter just fine. After all, he earned 13 whiffs in 59 pitches. Hot dang.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K. He was down to 93.5 mph (-1.1) and did not have any of his good command across the board. And it still worked out. Whatever. We carry on. But there was a sinker! Yes. One sinker to a RHB down the pipe. WE. CARRY. ON.
Doug Nikhazy (CLE) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K. What. He throws 91 mph from the left side, but 17″ of vert at seven of extension and a somewhat flat attack angle. The slider went 6/15 whiffs at 85/86, the changeup was okay at 83 mph, and he flipped some curves for strikes. Huh. Maybe there’s something to this if the changeup can get consistently down to RHB – that’s a legit extension and velocity drop that batters would bend the knee down-and-away often – and it’s clear he had good slider feel. Huh. Cantillo looks delayed, McKenzie is weird, Velasquez ain’t it, and the Guardians don’t have much SP depth. HUH. He could be a bullpen piece early, but three frames and Triple-A starts seem like he will be an SP depth piece this year, even if he hovered an 11% walk rate last year. Okay, I’m aware of you now, Mr. “When Pollack doesn’t know what to do”. What are you talking about. You know, Nik Hazy. OH COME ON.
Ryne Nelson (AZ) – 2.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K. He’s down two ticks on the heater, but now showing 20.2″ of vert. That’s kinda bonkers. I just wish there was more to love with secondaries as the cutter, slider, changeup, curve combined for 1/18 whiffs. Sigh. So close. I want to say the velocity should return in time, though he’s trying to make a case for a starting spot with the team and sub two ticks feels like a vet with a secure spot. Save for an injury, Nelson could be in Triple-A to begin the year with 3 MiLB options left, and that could explain the velocity drop. Imagine the team telling him of their plan, allowing him to take the foot off the gas pedal a touch. It’s possible and could also be this fella trying to mask the anxiety of a two tick velo drop.
Cristian Mena (AZ) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K. He’s at 95 mph with 18-19″ of vert and a bit curve he can keep down. I’m not sure there’s more than that for now but keep an eye on him if the velocity turns back up to 96/97 mph and there’s more fromn the change and sweeper (he only threw four pitches to RHB, which likely swayed the sinker and sweeper usage heavily).
No Statcast – TV
ATL vs. MIA
CHC vs. KC
Ian Anderson (ATL) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB, 4 K. Four walks?! FOUR WALKS?! Anderson. Buddy. You have been given a gift of an SP #5 situation after all your turmoil. This is the one thing you can’t do.
Ryan Weathers (MIA) – 2.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 3 BB, 3 K. Oh how I wish we had data for this one after all the hype following his last one. I watched it live on stream and I’m super impressed with Weathers. The heater at 96 mph that gets pushed to 99 mph when he needs it paired with a legit changeup in the mid 80s + an improved sweeper and flashes of a cutter?! I LOVE IT. I reached out to see if I could find some data on this and will post it in the Discord when I get it – if it’s the same 17″+ of vert without terrible HAVAA or extension, then I’m drafting Weathers everywhere. Seriously.
Adam Mazur (MIA) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 0 K. Nothing but a walk. It’s like he’s trying to be boring.
Ben Brown (CHC) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 K. I didn’t get the sense there was a strong #3 pitch in here, sadly. I’m still not in.
Cole Ragans (KC) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 6 K. PEW PEW PEW. Brodzowski mentioned on the broadcast about reporting of Ragans losing velocity last year due to a mechanical issue in his lower half…which was from me chatting with Ragans last year. Looks like it’s been resolved now and he was as dope as dope gets. Aces gonna ace…even without the cutter and slider on point.
No Statcast – No TV
SF vs. CWS
BAL vs. PIT
ATH vs. MIL
Justin Verlander (SF) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K. I think we’re overlooking Verlander in drafts, especially in 15-teamers. He’s gonna be a QS darling.
Jonathan Cannon (CWS) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 3 K. You can hold off firing the Cannon. We still need more gunpowder.
Zach Eflin (BAL) – 2.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 0 K. This is the Orioles ace with Rodriguez on the shelf.
Paul Skenes (PIT) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K. No data but whatever. We’ll get it and I’m sure he was great.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) – 2.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 2 K. Three walks?! That’s a little concerning as Springs should be a strong command arm. Something to monitor.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Why couldn’t this game be televised?! WHY?! If Misiorowski has somehow found a way to limit the walks overnight, that is a HUGE deal – he has the best fastball in the majors if he can make it a 67%+ strike pitch. I’m not joking. The Brewers are also super thin in SP depth with Hall and Ashby hurting, making their SP #7 wide open. Could be Misiorowski if the walk rate stays down, could be Logan Henderson if he can display consistent frames in Triple-A. Keep an eye on both of them.
What To Watch Today On TV
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotesGet morning updates to EVERY SP via my daily Plus Pitch Podcast AND SP Roundup article on the Pitcher List site.Shane Baz – FF/CB combo great? Improved SL?Jared Jones – Sinker and change cooking?Shane Smith – He throws HARDYusei Kikuchi – FF/SL working?
— Nick Pollack (@nickpollack.pitcherlist.com) 2025-03-07T15:37:05.469Z
Soroka is the 2nd best paid player in NATs roster(just after N Lowe according RosterResource). Of course he has that rotation spot…gotta pitch very very bad to lose it.
Love this whole series immensely. Thank you!
Yup Soroka’s a fifth of their salary and they want to showcase him.
Any thoughts on Jack Leiter being a power righty out of the bullpen for Texas and then maybe making a few spot starts? 3 relief appearances, throwing hard and looks like he has control of it.