Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers for the Plus Pitch Podcast, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
There’s no major news this morning and I’m leaving the first two items from yesterday as they were made public in the mid-to-late afternoon.
Gerrit Cole is seeking a second opinion after being recommended Tommy John Surgery. Sigh.
Site News
We’re launching PL 11 in the upcoming days and we’ve outlined everything we’re working on and improved on the site inside this Twitter thread and this Bluesky thread.
Check out all the apps, a tease of the PL Fantasy Baseball Pro Dashboard, our new Live Draft Assistant, and so much more.
Now it’s super easy to see velo changes, movement changes (extra vert from Rodón!), extension, usage changes, locations, etc. It’s incredible, y’all. Get access via PL Pro at 15% off with code SPRINGISHERE
Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
PHI vs. BAL
STL vs. NYY
NYM vs. WSH
ATH vs. AZ
LAD vs. ATH
KC vs. MIL
SEA vs. COL
Ranger Suárez (PHI) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K. Whoa, the velocity is back! Hot dang! GARCIA! CANCEL THAT INTERVIEW WITH TAIJUAN! The Phillies have been slow playing him and while it’s just 90.2 mph (-0.6), it’s not 88 mph. The command isn’t as pristine as we’ve seen in the past, but the velocity returning is awfully encouraging. I guess an early flier on Suárez is back on the menu.
Joe Ross (PHI) – 1.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 K. Annnnnd the velocity is still down to 92.0 mph (-2.7). Womp womp.
Thaddeus Ward (BAL) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 1 K. The Orioles realize they have to start figuring out their SP depth a little more and here comes Ward, trying to veer off their injury spell. It failed.
Andre Pallante (STL) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Yes, the velocity is still down. No, I don’t know if the Cardinals will replace him or not. Yes, they should with Matthew Liberatore.
Michael McGreevy (STL) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 1 K. Or McGreevy…? Ehhh I hope it’s Liberatore. There may be some moments of lovely command n all here, but at 92 mph? Nah.
Carlos Carrasco (NYY) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K. Say whatever you want about Carrasco who is now throwing 90.3 mph and not the 93+ mph of old. The fella still has two whiff-heavy secondaries, returning 8/24 whiffs between them in this one (33% SwStr!). I legit think the Yankees will turn to him when they need another starter. He’s their SP #6.
Clay Holmes (NYM) – 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 8 K. The kick-change went 6/16 whiffs. His cutter was spotted inside to LHB. The sweeper was…thrown to LHB for some reason and that wasn’t smart. His sinker is at 95/96 mph and all the drop you’d want (slightly more than last year!) and as long as he keeps it down to LHB, he’s golden. Ugh, I’m super in and I have no idea where to rank him. There are SO MANY SP I’m super in on to fill up the ends of my rosters, it’s impossible to choose. I’m leaning toward The Adobe over here given his security in the Mets rotation and relatively high Win chance. It’s gonna be a bloodbath in April figuring out what’s real and what isn’t. Strap in.
Mitch Spence (ATH) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K. Oh hey! The velocity is back up! Well, not on the sinker, but his cutter is up to 92.4 mph (+1.7) and that’s pretty dang cool. There’s also a curve getting a ton of attention at 82/83 mph (24% usage vs. 12% last year) and it was kinda amazing? 93% strikes with 3/14 whiffs is great in my book. The slider is still solid, too, nibbling the bottom of the zone and deserved more strikes than it received. I wonder if he snags a rotation spot instead of Bido or Estes and if he does, there’s 15-teamer sleeper value here. It’s a cool cutter/slider/curve mix.
Blake Snell (LAD) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K. Aces gonna ace. 56% curveball strikes have me giving him that stare. You know the one. Slider went 5/9 whiffs, though, allowing it not be in the sub 50% strike abyss for once.
Joey Estes (ATH) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Oh hey Estes, we were just talking about ya! Estes for the rest of us! Ayyy! I don’t think you should be on the heavy majority of fantasy teams. Wat. I mean, you should make the rotation over Bido with his “command” after looking at you place your arsenal as you like with ease, but your stuff. Oh dear, it’s like the twisted off Oreo Cookie that contains none of the middle filling. Half stuff? Worse, Estes. WORSE.
Noah Cameron (KC) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 2 K. The velocity is still up at 94 mph (not 92 from Triple-A last year), but the heater isn’t a great offering overall. His success depends on his trio of changeups, cutters, and curves to succeed, which I like across the board. I’m still in on Cameron once he gets the call, but it will be fringe 12-teamer at that time. He’s not a huge 30%+ strikeout arm, more of a sneaky Holly potential with hopes for a strikeout per inning.
Aaron Civale (MIL) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 1 K. Oh no. He’s down 2-3 ticks on cutters and sinkers (-2.6 on the sinker to 90.0 is rough) and I’m not touching this in 15-teamers. There are too many good SP to endure this mediocrity.
Nestor Cortes (MIL) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Oh jeez, 90.1 mph?! That’s -2.0 ticks from last year. Let’s just hope he’s okay in his next start, alright?
Luis Castillo (SEA) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 K. The velocity is still down at 93.9 mph (-1.7 ticks). I think you’re better off with so many other starters around where he’s going. Not that he shouldn’t help; his ADP simply doesn’t reflect what looks to be a downward trend for Castillo.
Statcast Games – No TV
DET vs. PIT
CLE vs. CWS
AZ vs. TEX
Tarik Skubal (DET) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K. Aces gonna ace. He threw more sliders than usual, likely to work on its feel for the year. Cool.
Andrew Heaney (PIT) – 2.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 0 K. Blegh. I think there was a trio of cutters classified as sliders, but nothing of intrigue here as he sat at 90.4 mph (-1.1 ticks down). He’s not ready. Will he ever be ready? I don’t know, child. I don’t know.
Gavin Williams (CLE) – 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K. Another day, another massive four-seamer whiff performance, here with 11/36 on the pitch. Oh snap! Nick, you were right! Wellllll, the four-seamer is doing everything it has done in the past (actually down 1.3 ticks to 95.3 mph here…), and the skill I was banking on was a secondary to step up as a reliable strike offering, hopefully the cutter. There’s no cutter in sight, the curve was thrown more than the slider (40% strikes) and the slider was featured just seven times. Yes, 3/7 whiffs and a 71% strike rate, but I’m not sold by it at 86 mph. I want that 90+ mph cutter for strkes dangit! But fine, let’s get on board because, I mean, that heater, y’all.
Mason Adams (CWS) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 K. Adams, you’re not like the other fellas on the White Sox. You throw 92 mph. Nah.
Corbin Burnes (AZ) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 K. OH. You guys should know my whole narrative about Burnes by now. Uhhh remind me? FINE. His cutter used to have 10″ and lower of iVB (read: Drop), but it was 12″+ last year and it struggled. Until the final weeks of August when it was suddenly 8″ and lower. It made him far better down the stretch and I was sad to see it back up to 12″+ in his first two spring starts. BUT LOOK AT THIS! 9.1″ iVB! And it led to 6/33 whiffs and a 39% CSW! I was planning on lowering Burnes to the end of the Top 10, but now I feel like I have to keep him at #7 after Gilbert and deGrom. Just when I thought I was out…
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K. He’s still down in velocity at 94.0 mph (-1.4 ticks), which is still expected, don’t worry y’all. Everything else looks good here, even a curveball going 7/14 whiffs which is awfully unlikely to stick. But hey! That was cool!
No Statcast – TV
TB vs. TOR
BOS vs. ATL
HOU vs. MIA
CHC vs. SF
LAA vs. CIN
Taj Bradley (TB) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K. No data and three walks in the line? That looks like the old Bradley we don’t love.
José Berríos (TOR) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Yep, that’s a Berríos line. Get used to these merged with a random month stretch when his curveball cooks.
Richard Fitts (BOS) – 2.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 4 K. Oh come on, no data?! HOW COULD YOU. The three walks are a bit unnerving and I guess we have to wait one more week to see how this pans out.
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K. AJSS could theoretically beat out Elder as the SP #6 or even Anderson as the #5, but I’d imagine Atlanta is holding him back for in-season.
Bryce Elder (ATL) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K. I feel for Atlanta fans if this is who they get every five days.
Framber Valdez (HOU) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 1 K. Oh. Looks like he’s not in that second half groove. Cool cool cool.
Xzavion Curry (MIA) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 1 K. With The Unquantrillfiable as the SP #5, Curry could see starts if Sandy gets traded. Or if Cal is back to being So-So Cal. Wouldn’t that mean he’s back on the Padres? OKAY FINE. YOU WIN.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K. Yep, that’s a Taillon spring training game. Looks like a VPQS to me.
Landen Roupp (SF) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Bleeeeegh. I think he’s awfully interesting if he’s locating his unique arsenal well enough. Doesn’t seem like he did in this one.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K. How do you spell Jack Kochanowicz? With two Ks. Ayyyyy. He’s still a sleeper 15-teamer and AL-Only arm in my book, with a rare ability to spot sinkers and get outs frequently. It’s kinda awesome to see as a pitching fan, but not as a fantasy manager. The ratios and Wins are not bankable enough to endure the low strikeout totals.
No Statcast – No TV
BAL vs. MIN
SF vs. SD
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 5 K. Well now. That’s a line. I don’t think the strikeouts are this real, but there is potential Toby value with some Wins here. He’ll likely get the Jays + Royals to kick off the year and that may be worthwhile…? It’s a thought.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K. You’re gonna earn a rotation spot, aren’t you. Ugh.
Jordan Hicks (SF) – 2.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 1 K. I’m not convinced this is going to work out for Hicks. Keep an eye on Birdsong, especially on his data when he get it. I want to know if Birdsong’s low walk rate is sustainable in any way.
Nick Pivetta (SD) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K. Nice going Pivetta. We’re all proud of you.
Matt Waldron (SD) – 1.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 2 K. MORE. KNUCKLEBALLS. I think that’s actually what he did here. Oh. Welp, we all wanted this to work out.
What To Watch Today On TV
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotesGet morning updates to EVERY SP via my daily Plus Pitch Podcast AND SP Roundup article on the Pitcher List site.Will Warren – SHOW ME WHAT YOU GOTKevin Gausman – Sinker? Better velo? Splitty whiffs?Yoshinobu Yamamoto – HIGH. FASTBALLS. I BEG OF YOU.
— Nick Pollack (@nickpollack.pitcherlist.com) 2025-03-10T12:30:13.074Z
Detroit optioned Manning to Toledo yesterday.
At this point, would you take Robbie Ray over Luis Castillo?