Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Caleb Kilian left Tuesday’s game with an undisclosed injury. This likely ends any hope of Kilian earning a rotation spot out of camp, a distant hope prior with Jordan Wicks as the clear favorite for the #5 spot. We’ll likely get an update later today and hopefully we see him in the rotation later this year.
Jordan Lyles is experiencing lower back tightness, though he likely doesn’t get displaced from the rotation. Alec Marsh or Daniel Lynch IV are the most likely candidates to take over were Lyles to miss some time, neither of whom should be on your radar.
Lucas Giolito is getting a second opinion on his elbow on Monday and could get surgery. This doesn’t look good for Giolito in the slightest. Apparently, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock aren’t “locks” at the back end of the rotation with Giolito’s absence—Cooper Criswell is apparently a strong option to enter the rotation, according to GM Craig Breslow.
The Astros are likely to keep J.P. France inside the rotation to start the season, despite his setbacks this spring. Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti are the two options behind him should he not be ready.
Luis Medina entered the clubhouse on crutches. No reason to expect him back in the rotation.
Statcast Games – TV
BAL vs. PHI
NYY vs. NYM
SDP vs. ARI
Albert Suárez (BAL) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. I can’t believe that after ranking 400 pitchers I’ve already missed a guy. Suárez jumped up in velocity nearly three ticks and had beautiful command of his heater with non-violent mechanics to live inside the zone and up at 96+ mph. There’s a cutter he’s still refining without exceptional movement but that heater’s consistency made this outing standout. I’d love to see more from the secondaries and want to see the stuff marks on his heater (iVB seems low, hows the angle and extension?) but how can I not wonder if he’s not better than Dean Kremer for the rotation?
Chayce McDermott (BAL) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Glad I finally got some video to watch Chayce. I prefer him over Cade Povich with a laserbeam heater at 95/96 mph here that reminds me of peak Mark Prior. There’s more polish needed for his secondaries, with a variety of cutters/sliders that hung without proper bite. Still, that heater foundation is great and I can imagine he’ll get that refinement over time in the minors this year.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. He signed his extension and afterward sat two ticks down on his heater in celebration. Wait. Don’t worry, he’s obviously just ramping up. Seriously, don’t worry about that.
Tylor Megill (NYM) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Splitter got 3/5 whiffs, but none of them were down. His heater isn’t running with the BSB, but the cutter is looking like a much needed addition. I’m not completely sold yet given the heater has settled into just 94 mph with poor iVB, sadly.
Pedro Avila (SDP) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Yeaaaaaah. I don’t think he’s going to earn the fifth spot with the way this spring has gone. Vásquez, Brito, and Waldron look to be competing for two spots in my view.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. The velocity is still up, but no longer at 95/96 mph and more like 94/95, even though he did show some heat in his final four-seamers. Pay close attention to Nelson as I still consider him a sleeper with his locked rotation spot and improved arsenal.
Statcast Games – No TV
TOR vs. PIT
MIN vs. STL
José Berríos (TOR) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Standard affair here, save for a new cutter he tossed six times for 4/6 strikes including two that soared far too high. I’m a HUGE fan of Berríos adding a cutter as his big weakness is LHB and cutters are the nullifer. That said, he didn’t get one of them actually inside the zone and inside on any of the six thrown to LHB, but at least he’s trying to figure it out.
Mitch White (TOR) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. I didn’t expect to see three frames and nearly 40 pitches from White, but here we are now that Gausman may need an extra week or two and Manoah’s whatever. White is still boasting absurdly improved velocity, jumping from 94 mph to 96/97 heat, hitting 98 on the dot in this one. He’s still a bit wild, though, and last year’s four-seamer shape was poor – extension, vert, and HAVAA were all pedestrian. Maybe the velo jump came with improvements to these marks as well? Does seem like there is more vert but this is a clear “wait-and-see”.
Jared Jones (PIT) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Dude was pumping 99-101 mph heaters and that’s bonkers. What’s also bananas was going just 1/15 whiffs with that velocity, a clear product of his inability to spot the pitch properly as he tugged many too far gloveside. Please, GIVE ME SOME VIDEO. I’m still in the camp that believes Jones gets the call before Skenes this year.
Quinn Priester (PIT) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Quinn is doing everything he can to remove the stains of 2023, and the new slider that looked great last time went 0/13 whiffs here. This ain’t it.
Bailey Falter (PIT) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. He’s trying as hard as he can to hold onto a roster spot and it just doesn’t seem worthwhile, you know?
Chris Paddack (MIN) – 2.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. He’s still harder on the heater at 94/95 vs. the 93 of last year, but he’s all over the place with his command. I’m not in on this y’all. THE PEOPLE WANT VARLAND.
Miles Mikolas (STL) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Nothing speaks sustainability like four strikeouts on 3/50 whiffs and 24% CSW, right? Is that a joke. YES IT’S A JOKE.
No Statcast – TV
TBR vs. BOS
DET vs. ATL
MIA vs. HOU
CHC vs. KCR
LAA vs. LAD
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) – 2.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Yikes. Pepiot isn’t in the best place right now and his command isn’t what it needs to be. I’m currently fading him as the hopes of Pepiot making the adjustments and wrangling his arsenal seem to still be a work in progress. It could absolutely flip on a dime, but I’m not seeing it yet.
Garrett Whitlock (BOS) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Give the man the rotation spot already, yeesh.
Reese Olson (DET) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. MUCH better for Olson as he’s making his case to enter the rotation. Maybe Casey Mize is a reliever after all…
Spencer Strider (ATL) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s the SP #1 and this obviously doesn’t remove his crown.
Charlie Morton (ATL) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Cool, this changes nothing.
Trevor Rogers (MIA) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Cool, he’s here, let’s see how the rest of the spring goes.
Ryan Weathers (MIA) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. The dude just keeps dominating with his heater and improved slider. It’s getting harder and harder for the Marlins to deny him a rotation spot and I’d say him and Puk steal the final two, not Rogers and Meyer at this point. What happens when Braxton is healthy? No idea. They’ll figure it out.
Ronel Blanco (HOU) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. France seemingly has the fifth spot, but if there’s any delay there, it’ll be Blanco and there’s value in this. He’s good enough to not destroy your ratios and provide Wins and strikeouts for AL-Only leagues.
Caleb Kilian (CHC) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. I was digging Kilian a ton in this one, though he wasn’t earning the same number of whiffs as he was prior. Sadly, he allowed a hit to start the third, then left the mound with the trainer. Uh oh. Yeah. I really hope everything is okay, but it likely ends our hope of a rotation spot out of camp.
Brady Singer (KCR) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. He looked much better for once, but I’m still not sold. GIVE ME MORE.
Chase Silseth (LAA) – 2.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Sure, he struck out Ohtani, but his command is not what you want it to be. I’m out.
Bobby Miller (LAD) – 3.0 IP, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. I’m not seeing the major gains yet in his slider and heater (sliders better vs RHB for whiffs, four-seamers upstairs intent more often), though he’s still obviously a fantastic arm. The floor is so good and there’s still that ceiling to hit.
No Statcast – No TV
SEA vs. CLE
MIL vs. SFG
TEX vs. SEA
Gavin Williams (CLE)—2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s great to see zero walks. Here’s to hoping his slider and curveball become more reliable in his second season, as his velocity and extension open the door for shenanigans with his four-seamer that bullies batters.
Jakob Junis (MIL) – 2.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. This isn’t gonna work, Milly. I see Junis more of a long-reliever or swingman than an actual arm for the rotation. He shouldn’t take a spot from Hall, though Aaron Ashby’s situation is more about if the Brewers want to give him extra time in the minors first to ensure he’s good to go as he recovers from shoulder surgery.
Logan Webb (SFG) – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Huh. This is the opposite of a typical Webb line with strikeouts galore but all the runs. Weird.
Owen White (TEX) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. You’re likely not familiar with White, but he’s an option should the Rangers need to move on from Cody Bradford. And now you can go back to forgetting.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) – 1.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Ooooof. You shouldn’t react to this and change your ranks, but yeah, not fun.
What To Watch on TV Today
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
Carlos Rodón redemption tour?
Taj Bradley – Please have good CB and CT command
Framber Valdez – Be normal
Reid Detmers – Anything new?
Justin Steele – Be normal
Yoshinobu Yamamoto -…— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) March 6, 2024