Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Sad news about Caleb Kilian. He’s getting an MRI on his shoulder and Craig Counsel regards the injury as “concerning.” Blegh.
To cleanse the palette, the Pirates are apparently considering Jared Jones to start the year in the rotation. I originally believed he’d be up closer to May 1st (why rush him?), but this quote makes him a MUST get in the back half of your drafts as a legit ceiling pick.
Statcast Games – TV
TBR vs. NYY
Taj Bradley (TBR) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. He’s sitting 96/97 mph, but the command just isn’t there. I know some are believing in the new cutter or the 11 splitters (0/11 whiffs and inconsistent) and I just can’t get into this. He’s going to have your days of bliss and your days of destruction. Don’t draft Cherry Bomb types. You’ll be holding onto him too long to make a proper decision to get something else that’s properly sustainable.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. I’m going to say something that makes me feel dirty and we’re all gonna hate it. The Yankees wanted to sign Patrick Corbin when he was a free agent and got their wish with Rodón. He’s not getting the same explosiveness on his heater and it’s a massive detriment that I don’t believe will suddenly return in a few weeks. It’s possible, but it’s awfully hard to believe he’s just taking it easy now, sitting 93 mph and topping out at just 94.8 mph in this one.
Luis Gil (NYY) – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s a bit like Bradley in that I’m not ready to trust his command. There’s a little more hope in the long term for Gil to come through and I’ll be paying attention when he arrives later this year. I really hope he has a consistent slider and changeup to earn enough strikes and allow the four-seamer to thrive upstairs at 96/97 mph.
Statcast Games – No TV
WSH vs. MIA
TEX vs. COL
Patrick Corbin (WSH) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Look, the dude is doing the right thing in adding a cutter that was once again effective against RHB. Fewer sinkers, more cutters, sliders to both, and suddenly Corbin isn’t so bad? Great NL-only Sleeper, for real.
Jesús Luzardo (MIA) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. He was sitting two ticks down on the heater and spotting it over the plate. Ouch. That heater needs to be both 96+ and spotted around the edges as it’s a deadzone heater that will get crushed otherwise. Good to see the slider and changeup generally do their thing (5/12 whiffs on the slider) but hot dang, that fastball can’t be like this.
Andrew Heaney (TEX) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Fastball was down 2-3 ticks and located right down the pipe. There’s yer problem. Seriously, don’t do this.
Kyle Freeland (COL) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Freeland, please. But I’m throwing almost three ticks harder, maxed out near 95 mph, and displayed decent command! BUT COORS IS UNDEFEATED. I just can’t do this but I’m happy for him.
No Statcast – TV
LAA vs. CHC
LAD vs. CHW
OAK vs. LAA
Reid Detmers (LAA) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. This line looks so much better than how he pitched. The command isn’t there, the fastball isn’t dominating, and the changeup wasn’t a major story. I’m out.
Justin Steele (CHC) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. He was experimenting with changeups and sinkers a bit more than usual, which I love as he needs something that goes gloveside, and you may see me a little more encouraged by Steele come Monday. At the very least, expect him above both Luzardo and Gilbert.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. I watched it all and yes, there were some unfortunate moments that made this a bit worse, but he looked both hittable with his heater and shaky with locations. The biggest concern I’m having from these two games is his four-seamer – the pitch seems more hitable than I want it to be, especially with his utilization of it lower than what you normally see from four-seamers. Mix that concern with a likely capped innings total and I’m lowering him closer to #20 on Monday. That’s so reactionary Nick! It’s not about this line, it’s about the concerns about his actual stuff that doesn’t create the safety of others with an innately lower ceiling.
Michael Kopech (CHW) – 2.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Nope. There are brief moments where it clicks, but there’s little hope he can be that consistent arm I’ve wanted him to be.
Joe Boyle (OAK) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. His command is terrible and we won’t get the guy we want. It’s too violent still and he’s literally aiming down the middle and hoping for the best. I don’t care how good the stuff is, I’m not trusting a guy like that.
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. You weren’t in before and you’re not in now. If this ain’t you, then make like Jordan and Get Out.
No Statcast – No TV
BOS vs. MIN
SEA vs. KCR
MIL vs. CIN
CLE vs. MIL
CIN vs. PIT
PIT vs. BAL
Cooper Criswell (BOS) – 2.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. He’ll continue to be stretched out as I imagine the Sawx are considering Criswell as a backup for any of the current starting five. Don’t consider Criswell inside the rotation out of camp unless another injury appears and even then, they need to get JorMont or Snell, right?
Joe Ryan (MIN) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER. 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. No data so we just have to hope the velocity is still there and his slider is looking good? I’ve found myself more out on Ryan as I haven’t seen anything to suggest the breaker has improved, making him still fastball/splitter a ton. At least the sinker has showed up, which should help him plenty against RHB who want to be aggressive on the four-seamer.
Bryce Miller (SEA) – 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Not much to pull from here. Really want to watch more of him to get a sense of how much his splitter actually helps and if there is a new cutter or breaker to make him better against LHB. Oh, and is the command actually good? I don’t consider Bryce a command pitcher and that has me generally leaning away from him. I’ve been a little too harsh this off-season and will be raising him slightly on Monday, but still not “in”.
Angel Zerpa (KCR) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. With Jordan Lyles possibly delayed, there’s a chance it’s Zerpa who gets the shot and even with this line, I wouldn’t do it. He’s not this good.
Bryse Wilson (MIL) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. Milwaukee, don’t tell me you’re actually considering this.
Brandon Williamson (CIN) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Hey, good Williamson is a fun thing. I wonder if this had his cutter inside and if his velocity was 94/95 again. Sigh.
Triston McKenzie (CLE) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. He’s alive! He only hit 93 mph, which implies sitting around 91 mph or so, which isn’t ideal, but the fact he didn’t walk the farm and got on the mound suggests he’s ramping back up to normal. He’s coming at a large discount right now and I’m all for it.
Colin Rea (MIL) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. This Brewers situation is all defuddled and Rea may be the default “whatever, I guess” #5 starter at the end of it. We don’t want it.
Graham Ashcraft (CIN) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. Does this look like a guy who is locating well? If you want chaos, go for it. I have too much anxiety ya’ll.
Randy Vásquez (SDP) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. I’m wondering if this is Jhony Brito and Matt Waldron moving forward as the SP #4 and SP #5 as long as they hold their own the rest of the way. I don’t like Vásquez’s heaters and his command isn’t where it needs to be. Great sweeper, though.
Mitch Keller (PIT) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Keller is a Cherry Bomb with a deadzone four-seamer who needs to figure out how to lean into his breakers and cutters perfectly for him to rid him of the label. That’s an aggressive, kinda arrogant take. I know, sorry. It’s just where I’m at with Keller and I’m not chasing this. Suitman whispers in my ear HE WAS 91-93 ON THE HEATER?! Oh dear.
Julio Teheran (BAL) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. You again. The man just doesn’t quit.
Bruce Zimmermann (BAL) – 2.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. The Orioles are looking at all their SP options and Zim has been a depth option who isn’t fantasy relelvant.
What To Watch on TV Today
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
AARON ASHBY HATH RETURNED
Jack Flaherty – Still 95+ across more than 30 pitches?
Luke Weaver – He's still here
Aaron Nola – Velocity back? Command good?
Bryce Elder – Enough to…— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) March 7, 2024