Here are today’s daily SP Streamer rankings.
Every day of the 2023 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Twitch.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 10am – 12pm ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Twitch AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man. This includes “if I have them rostered, I’m starting them” pitchers.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good-not-elite pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm. These pitchers have a 50% or greater chance of performing well in my view.
Questionable Start – Think of this tier as “I don’t want to start these pitchers in a vacuum, but you could do worse.” Streamers found in this tier are not pitchers I’m targeting and are only if you are in dire need of one. To play it safe with streaming, just start the Probably Start streamers.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it. Seriously, these pitchers have a very slim chance of success or sometimes none at all.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are that day’s streaming pick in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. Those in Yellow are in the third tier and should be okay if you’re searching for something on a given day, but I don’t recommend streaming unless you’re in need. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses (in Alphabetical order):
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
This year, with our new daily fantasy baseball projections powered by PLV, I’ll be competing against PL Bot to pick the best streaming option each day.
To get access to PL Bot’s picks each day, sign up for PL Pro here.
Streaming record is determined by “was this a productive game for 12-teamers if I started them?” Roughly a PQS with a Win and a strikeout per inning with a sub 1.20 WHIP. Close calls are decided by Twitch chat.
Nick’s 2023 Streamer Record: 43-35
My pick yesterday: Louie Varland vs. DET
PL Bot’s 2023 Streamer Record: 41-37
PL Bot’s Pick yesterday: Louie Varland vs. DET
Want PL Bot’s pick today? Sign Up for PL Pro here.
With the new formatting for the notes, I’ve made the streaming pick of the day Underlined and Italicized.
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Auto-Starts
Corbin Burnes vs. ARI – He’s in a groove now and that’s a great thing.
Pablo López vs. BOS – The skills are still very much there. Don’t let the ERA that is sure to decline turn you away.
James Paxton @ MIN – He’s dominated in the heavy majority of his starts and it’s the Twins.
Max Scherzer @ HOU – Despite the matchup, you have to start Scherzer. Start your studs.
Hunter Brown vs. NYM – Brown has moments of volatility as he figures out his arsenal. We still start him here.
Merrill Kelly @ MIL – He’s on a magical run and the Brewers aren’t scary.
Michael Wacha @ SFG – Eight straight fantastic starts, why stop now?
Probably Starts
José Berríos @ MIA – He got roughed up last time out but it’s Miami.
Jack Flaherty @ WSN – Flaherty is in a decent place and the Nationals give little fear.
Questionable Starts
Andrew Heaney @ CHW – He’s too volatile with his command, though the White Sox make for a decent strikeout stream.
Reese Olson vs. KCR – I think he has a solid repertoire and could come through against a poor Royals lineup.
Drew Smyly @ PIT – If he gets his curveball down, he could make this worthwhile against the Pirates.
Do Not Starts
Josiah Gray vs. STL – I don’t think he offers enough with his repertoire, even if he tried going sinker-heavy last time out.
Anthony DeSclafani vs. SDP – The fastball command is not good and the Padres are heating up.
Brandon Williamson vs. COL – There’s a chance this works as he gets Rockie Road, but the ceiling is too limited to risk the floor.
Osvaldo Bido vs. CHC – I don’t think he does a whole lot with his repertoire to make this worthwhile.
Jordan Lyles @ DET – The matchup is good, Lyles is not.
Austin Gomber @ CIN – Never Gomber.
Jesse Scholtens vs. TEX – It’s the Rangers and you know to avoid this.
Bryan Hoeing vs. TOR – This could be a bullpen game and if isn’t, it’s the Jays.
UPDATE: Giants Bullpen vs. SDP – Tony Disco is pushed back to Tuesday and it’s unclear what the Giants are doing today.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Auto-Starts
Gerrit Cole vs. SEA – Aces gonna ace. The slider needs to improve, but the Mariners are whiff machines and could blossom here.
Spencer Strider @ PHI – Strider has been in a weird funk that I have zero expectations will stick around.
Clayton Kershaw @ LAA – He’s TATIAGA and y’all who say that in public are the real ones.
Tyler Glasnow vs. BAL – Glasnow showed us last time out how his success is rooted in his own ability and not the opposition’s strength.
Framber Valdez vs. NYM – He redeemed himself last start and the Mets are an oscillating bunch.
Nathan Eovaldi @ CHW – You can’t deny Eovaldi a start these days.
George Kirby @ NYY – Kirby doesn’t walk any and the Yankees are sub .300 in OBP this year.
Marcus Stroman @ PIT – Stroman is tossing low sinkers and feeding into the elite infield defense behind him.
Justin Verlander @ HOU – Ahhhhhhh I think Verlander is pitching well and it’s the Astros and you have to start your studs but ahhhhhhh.
Probably Starts
Dylan Cease vs. TEX – We saw Cease’s slider get whiffs again last time, even if the command was a little wonky at times. The Rangers are super scary, though, so if you’d rather not take on any risk, you can hold him off your lineup here.
Bailey Ober vs. BOS – He’s spotting his heater and the Red Sox aren’t terrifying.
Yusei Kikuchi @ MIA – Kikuchi has changed his approach to focus on sliders and curves inside the zone and it’s been working. It’s time to pick up Kikuchi if you haven’t yet.
Eury Pérez vs. TOR – He’s still up in the majors with Edward Cabrera’s injury and Trevor Rogers‘ delay. It’s a tough pull against the Jays, though, and if you’d rather slot him below the other three arms (or even in the third tier), I completely understand.
Jordan Montgomery @ WSN – He’s a Toby against a middling offense, even if they have a 106 wRC+ on the season against LHP.
Aaron Civale vs. OAK – We start Toby types against the Athletics. All day.
Michael Lorenzen vs. KCR – Lorenzen has been rattled the last few but he didn’t face opponents as weak as the Royals.
Questionable Starts
MacKenzie Gore vs. STL – Does Gore actually have a BSB approach that we believe in? I get the sense he figures it out start to start.
Johan Oviedo vs. CHC – As long as he gets sliders and fastballs in the zone, this should be fine. He’s susceptible to chaos, even against the Cubs.
Reid Detmers vs. LAD – We just saw a strikeout explosion from Detmers as it’s slowly coming together with his four-seamer, slider, and curve. The Dodgers make for a tough gamble and I’d prefer just to stash for now.
Ranger Suárez vs. ATL – I love this command as of late, but Atlanta forces Ranger to be at the top of his game.
Kyle Bradish @ TBR – You never know what you’re going to get from Bradish on a given night.
Kutter Crawford @ MIN – PLV adores him, though the stuff was a little worse across 80 pitches than the limited roles he got as a reliever. There’s a chance his four-seamer dominates, though.
Do Not Starts
Luis Medina @ CLE – There’s a chance for a PQS here from Medina, but the ceiling isn’t high enough to chase in normal leagues.
Seth Lugo @ SFG – It’s a Still ILL but I’m excited to see how he looks with his breakers and sinker command.
Anthony DeSclafani vs. SDP – I don’t trust his fastballs and the Padres are fantastic at the moment.
Ben Lively vs. COL – It’s a great matchup, but Lively hasn’t been the same slider guy we want.
Daniel Lynch @ DET – Is the fastball/change approach really the answer for Lynch? I need to see that start before I lean in heavily.
Colin Rea vs. ARI – There’s always a chance with Rea. Not a great one, but a chance.
Kyle Freeland @ CIN – Oh stop.
Ryne Nelson @ MIL – The secondaries are lacking severely and the Diamondbacks have expressed their uneasiness keeping Nelson inside the rotation.
Featured Image by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)
We need to recalibrate on facing Astros hitters. They are 15th in R/G and 19th in wOBA and that’s with Yordan, who is now out indefinitely. Altuve is now about at his projections with his recent hot streak . Tucker has underperformed but not that much. Bregman has underperformed a little bit more but it’s not like he’s been horrible. Abreu is as toasty as it gets and nobody else on that roster is more than average-ish, either in actual production or in forward projections.
Dare I say, they may even be a streaming target. They’ve been better against lefties (.325 wOBA) but have a team .308 wOBA vs righties and that includes Yordan’s .412 wOBA.
Berrios got roughed up last time out?