Every preseason, I use a rarely-used Statcast algorithm to try to detect potentially overvalued players who I feel have more downside than their ADP indicates. You can read the article for posterity here. Spoiler alert: I was in prime form this year in my bust predictions, returning to my norm of being really good at predicting busts (other than in 2024) and not nearly as good at predicting sleepers (this is normal).
This article is a postmortem on my picks, and this one specifically, to bask in momentary glory before looking at next year’s draft in confused exasperation. I originally had Alec Bohm as the cover of this article, and regret moving him to an honorable mention, but the others came out good, too. Let’s see how things unraveled.
Luis Robert Jr. (OF, Chicago White Sox) – ADP: 75
Top Comps: Josh Lowe, Zack Gelof, Tyler Fitzgerald, Paul DeJong, Jack Suwinski
I love how these comps all turned out this year, which highlights the risk… like they were all going for a canoe ride in a tsunami. Like, Paul DeJong may qualify as the least disappointing for his ADP. HA! Of course, the good news is Robert outproduced all the others, and his season wasn’t a TOTAL disaster, but using a Top-100 pick on him sure looks unwise in hindsight after he hit just .223/.297/.364 with 14 home runs and 33 stolen bases with 52 runs and 53 RBI in 382 at-bats (110 games). Is that better than last year? Well, it’s the exact same aside from 2025 featuring 10 more stolen bases and 25 runs produced, sort of like when Weetabix advertises New Recipe! (5% less sawdust).
What can we learn? Well, I think perhaps drafting Robert, even at the discounted price, was a bad process. As I had noted, his exit velocity and strikeout rate had been in multi-year downtrends, and people were perhaps anchoring too heavily on an outstanding 2023 season that didn’t seem supported by his career rates. The one thing I was wrong was saying the team didn’t seem to be better in 2025, as they came on like gangbusters in the second half, but that just gives Robert’s failure one less excuse. I think the lesson is that this kind of highly undisciplined high high-strikeout type may peak early and crash hard. Score one for me!
Look, I said this Statcast feature is context blind, so it doesn’t take into account existential crises and the highly contagious South Side Sox Ennui. We know Robert will bounce back in 2025 because… um… the team is bett- no, the fact that he hit 38 homers with 20 stolen bases in 2023? Sure. I don’t want to say that season was a total fluke, but note that his career 12% barrel rate is actually closer to his 10% mark from last year than his 15% mark in 2023. Not only that, but while his Hard-Hit rate has stayed rather steady over his career, his Max EV and strikeout rate are in multi-year downtrends. He is having a strong spring so far, which is nice, but don’t let this 30 plate appearance sample think those will simply wash away a full season of looking like a wreck.
VERDICT: HIT (1 for 1)
Josh Naylor (1B, Arizona Diamondbacks) – ADP: 85
Top Comps: Jonah Heim, Trea Turner, Ramón Urías, Carlos Correa, Ty France
Well, this was a miss, unless you put all the weight on the Trea Turner comp, since their season lines were so similar that you’d probably be a millionaire if you bet a few dollars on that. Of course, Statcast Affinity doesn’t factor in stolen bases anyway. But even without the stolen bases, it would have been a fine season, as he hit .295/.353/.462 with 20 homers and 30 stolen bases with 81 runs and 90 RBI in 543 at-bats. Just 30 stolen bases and caught stealing TWICE! What a world. Seattle destroyed Eugenio Suárez, but Naylor was totally unfazed by the switch, and it seems he simply changed his approach to the high-average, moderate power bat of 2023, which was also excellent.
What can we learn? Don’t doubt Josh Naylor. Seriously, he’s provided draft day value every single year, and disproved the haters. But also, maybe we should learn not to overreact to a ballpark switch for a player who has displayed the potential to change his approach to fit the ballpark. He was one of my favorite sleepers in 2023 and 2024, and sometimes we can get too focused on one negative and forget the positives.
VERDICT: MISS (1 for 2)
Triston Casas (1B, Boston Red Sox) – ADP: 116
Top Comps: Colton Cowser, Elly De La Cruz, Ramón Laureano, Luke Raley, Jose Siri
I had called him Casas Bonita, which is rather fitting, granted that Matt & Trey admitted trying to save it was a massive money hole since there were some big hidden problems. He had big power, but I think the rib injury changed the narrative, since before the injury, he was showing an ugly degradation of his approach, and in my opinion was given way too much of a pass for that, since I usually don’t draft guys with a 2024 xBA of .219 with a Top-150 pick. In 2025, the decline continued until he ended up in a platoon and then got knee surgery in May, which ended his year. Granted, had he not gotten hurt, maybe he could’ve turned it around, but he ended with a .182/.277/.303 with just three homers in 99 at-bats. While you could argue it was too small a sample for the victory lap, he had already gotten platooned, and I did make the wise decision to short him by investing in a late-round Romy González in some Draft Champions.
What’s the lesson we can learn here? I think it’s “don’t let an injury washout season excuse stop you from digging deeper under the hood,” especially for someone who had recently been a shiny new toy. That 32% strikeout rate, 32% CSW rate, and 15% swinging-strike rate should have a big red flag keeping him out of the top 200, and I hope you took my preseason advice and just waited to take Yandy Díaz about 80 picks later.
VERDICT: HIT (2 for 3)
Xander Bogaerts (2B/SS, San Diego Padres) – ADP: 143
Top Comps: Giovanny Urshela, Vaughn Grissom, Will Brennan, Maikel Garcia, Luis Campusano
At last! At long last! Sort of. So many years has this measure said the other shoe would drop on Xander, and finally it’s stopped making me look like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. I figured that stolen bases could still keep his value afloat, despite being older, but that the bat decline was real. As I noted, he hadn’t had a single double-digit barrel rate in his 10-year career, but the barrel rate was a career-worst 5% last year, with his quality of contact way down as well. In the end, he had an underwhelming .263/.328/.391 with 11 home runs and 20 stolen bases with 63 runs and 52 RBI in 491 at-bats (552 PA). That’s really not so bad, especially given how terrible second base was this year, but he still ranked 202 on the Razzball Player Rater, and given the 143 ADP, it still counts.
What’s the lesson? Well, I could say not to expect a batting average/power bounceback for an aging fantasy stalwart who had their first disappointing year. But maybe nothing, since you could argue that my process was still bad and I just got lucky. Like I said, he’s come up as a bust using Player Affinity just about every single year since I started doing this exercise, and yet again, he beat the bearish comps (other than Maikel Garcia), and perhaps had he stayed healthy, I’d be wrong here. So maybe next year I’ll just throw him out as a system-breaking outlier. Still, 552 PA isn’t a small amount, and a cheap win is still a win. Plus, I said in the last sentence of my preseason article that I boldly predict Otto Lopez (ADP: 341) would outproduce him, and he did (#160 on the player rater), so that’s cool.
VERDICT: HIT (3 for 4)
Masyn Winn (SS, St. Louis Cardinals) – ADP: 146
Top Comps: Abraham Toro, Bryson Stott, Miguel Amaya, Manny Margot, Nolan Arenado
I may not be in the Illuminati or in a fraternal secret society, but my 10+ drafted fantasy teams were FreeofMasyn. The 40 stolen base promise hype was real, but in the end, he was full of lies as he only stole nine, to go with a weak .253/.310/.363 line with nine homers in 491 at-bats (129 Games). Just the fact that he stayed on the field kept him at 282 on the Player Rater, but he likely did more fantasy damage than players below him since you probably held onto him too long and banked your team draft strategy on him being a major stolen base asset. I noted that I don’t get why he goes ahead of Jeremy Peña (ADP: 154), who ended up at 99 in the player rater.
What can we learn? Well, I think one is not to get too enamored with a player who holds their own at a young age if the peripherals suggest they got lucky. Also, listen to the projections, who all suggested that despite his youth, he would disappoint at his ADP thanks to his terrible barrel rate. He actually made very slight improvements across the board under the hood, but it’s still not good, and we can’t assume prospect growth is linear, especially when the offensive skills aren’t really there. Really saying maybe we shouldn’t assume prospect growth period… some arrive at or near their peak. I’d assume he’s left for dead in 2026 drafts, and if that’s true, I’d consider him as a late-game middle infielder in the J.P. Crawford mold, since he still is 23, and I’m much more willing to bet on growth when it’s basically free.
VERDICT: HIT (4 for 5)
Dishonorable Mentions: Yainer Diaz (hit), Vinnie Pasquantino (miss), Randy Arozarena (miss), Lane Thomas (hit), Alec Bohm (hit), Parker Meadows (hit), Brandon Marsh (miss)
