The List 8/17 – Ranking The Top 100 Starting Pitchers Every Monday

We’re back in the regular groove of Monday afternoon updates of The List! As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them.

As always, these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

The List was accidentally published early while I was still drafting the notes, sorry about that! This is the correct List with notes.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• As always, don’t look at the # changes, look at the players around them. Stephen Strasburg and Mike Clevinger were removed, giving many innate positive trends, while I had to do plenty of shuffling in the middle that pushed up names I had little intention of moving (Yusei Kikuchi, for example).
• And for those wondering about Sandy Alcantara, who is supposed to return this week, I’ve elected to wait until he starts before adding him back to The List.

 

• I know some of you wanted Shane Bieber as the #1 arm, but with Gerrit Cole doing wonderful things with his fastball again, I simply can’t push Bieber ahead right now. Both are dope and that’s cool.
• I’m crossing my fingers that Jacob deGrom pitches this week and is back to normal. Since he’s not on the IL and hoping to make his start this week, I haven’t removed him from the ranks.

 

• I’ve lowered Walker Buehler a little as he’s not quite up to speed yet. If it’s not in his next start, the final month of the year should still be definitive Top 15 production, which makes me slot him above other successful arms like Lance Lynn and Clayton Kershaw.
• Look at Kenta Maeda and Zac Gallen rise the ranks to tier 3. It’s hard not to at this point with Maeda’s excellent offensive support and schedule, while Gallen’s repertoire makes many jealous.

 

• I considered dropping Tyler Glasnow further, but given his 84 pitch count last time out and volatility that comes with the ceiling, I still have ahead of other arms that aren’t without their own warts.
• Glasnow’s teammate Blake Snell joins him in the same tier, though at a lower rank as Snell’s pitch count isn’t nearly as elevated. Given a 90-pitch start, I certainly prefer Snell, but he’s just not quite there yet. Hopefully in a game or two.

 

• Tier five is a mix of young excitement and disappointing names. Chris Paddack’s fastball isn’t nearly as effective as it was last year, Zack Wheeler isn’t adapting the strikeout approach we hoped for, and Patrick Corbin’s velocity is down a full two ticks. It’s all a bit concerning and I had to drop them dramatically.
• I know some of you wanted me to raise Dylan Bundy further up the ranks, but it’s been just four games so far. The floor is still very much there with his questionable heater.

 

• It’s a small Tier 6 and it’s the calm before the storm. I’d be throwing each of these pitchers out there save for the most extreme of starts and yes, that includes Spencer Turnbull. I believe so strongly that he just needs to remove his sinker in favor of a strong four-seamer/curveball/slider approach. It’s doing him no favors.
• Sadly, Dustin May doesn’t carry the ceiling of an ace as long as he is still sinker heavy without a signature whiff pitch. He’s worth your time, definitely, just not the legit ace some are buying him as.

 

• Tier seven is a bit…dicey. You have your fair share of solid-but-not-sexy names like Masahiro Tanaka, Chris Bassitt, Dallas Keuchel, and Randy Dobnak, while I don’t know quite what to do with Jose Berrios. He should be better than that near 6.00 ERA, but he’s running out of time to tip the scales. I’d stick with him but understand the ceiling may never arrive in this short season.
• The back-half of the tier is filled with upside options that may be a better choice for your situation – hence why they are all in the same tier. Kevin Gausman is flexing 95-97 mph velocity as he exercises the BSB to its fullest effect, while Pablo Lopez earned 21 whiffs and may have found his groove with a new cutter. Exciting times!

 

• Staying in Tier 7, I’m thrilled to see Andrew Heaney’s velocity come back to normal this week, though he still needs to work a bit on getting his fastball elevated. If he can do that, he could push into Top 35 quickly. There’s also Josh Lindblom who is on the fringe on being a legit fantasy arm. His new slider is wicked while he’s found a good groove with his cutter. Pick him up if he’s out there.
• I think I was a bit too high ranking Ryan Yarbrough and Griffin Canning last week. Yarbrough is a little safer than Canning but his margin of error is small and can lead to disappointing outings a bit too frequently. Canning is in a bit of a rough patch and if he doesn’t come through in a good matchup against the Giants, he could be falling further. Love his stuff, though.

 

• Tier 8 is a quick but exciting one. The main name here is Casey Mize, who is making his MLB debut Wednesday evening. Yes, I’ll be writing a GIF Breakdown of that start that will be published before the game’s end – go pick him up now and we’ll talk later.
• The other big name here to me is Chad Kuhl, who is finally stretched out for a proper start this week. He brings mid 90s velocity with one of the better sliders you’ll see from a starting pitcher. The upside makes him very much worthwhile as we begin to approach the cliff for high ceiling starters.

 

• Tier 9 is the stashing tier. It’s great to see Corbin Burnes back in the Brewers rotation, but an add now is for his next start as he gets the Twins this week. That’s an easy pass. Tarik Skubal got the call, though he’ll be on a pitch count and needs a few starts to get to a place where he could dramatically affect your teams. Add these arms only if you’re shooting for September.
• Robbie Ray and John Means are sadly not pitchers to add for the short term, with Ray still struggling with his command and Means a few starts away from being stretched out properly again. It’s too bad, but we have to sit on our hands here.

 

• Tier 10 is where we see pitchers that are bordering being a Toby or something more. I’m amazed the Dodgers are allowing Tony Gonsolin to get yet another start (and over 80 pitches!), but he’s a great short-term add for his start against the Mariners. Elieser Hernandez also joins The List after his nine strikeout effort, but be careful against the Nationals next – Elieser is a two-pitch arm without a strong fastball. There’s a low floor there.
• Matt Shoemaker has been impressive on the CSW front and is making me consider him as a surprise for the full 2021 season. He may be worth the add along with Merrill Kelly, who has been stealing strikes with his curveball, getting whiffs with changeups, and spotting heaters effectively.

 

• Tier 10 also has the introduction of Ryan Castellani, who has gotten Max Scherzer comps for his windup. While he doesn’t have nearly the same ceiling, I’m slowly becoming a fan of his schtick. It may be too hittable of a fastball without consistent secondary stuff, but he’s an intriguing add at the moment.
• I’m incredibly sad to see the fall of Luke Weaver here, but unfortunately, the Diamondbacks are even letting him go deeper into games as his fastball is getting crushed. He’s a drop who has been given the TIARA, so don’t ignore him when he does well in the future.

 

• Dakota Hudson makes his first 2020 appearance on The List after yesterday’s start, where he featured a curveball alongside his slider – a hook he didn’t throw in 2019 and it performed well. I wonder it’s a sign of things to come from Hudson that could speak to more consistency than ultra reliance on his defense. Yonny Chirinos also returns to The List after being reinstated from the IL. Good to have him back.
• I lowered rookies Brady Singer and Spencer Howard to Tier 11 for two different reasons. Singer will be facing the Twins for the third straight start this weekend and it’s just not worth your time. Poor guy. Howard is on a short leash in his outings for the Phillies and while he did have a better fastball, his secondary stuff is far from where it needs to be to turn him into a consistent starter.

 

• I need a moment to express my sadness to see Matthew Boyd down at #85. It’s just…sigh. His command is way off and he’s working to get back to the spot he was in 2019, let alone the development we believed he was making back in March. Maybe one day he’ll rise. One day.

 

• The final two tiers are filled with possible streamers given the right circumstances. Zach Eflin and Alex Young could fit the bill as Eflin is fresh off a 19 whiff performance that’s likely not to stick but could resurface at some point. Young displayed a solid streamer in 2019 and now with Bumgarner hurt, he may be getting the innings to help once again
• I’m not a major fan of what Steven Matz is doing and while I expect him to rise in future weeks, he’s not in a good place at the moment. Framber Valdez had a solid start against the Mariners, but given an average matchup, I don’t believe his sinker/curveball combination is enough to warrant a spot in your rotation.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
3	Jacob deGrom	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
4	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
5	Sonny Gray T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
6	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
7	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
8	Carlos Carrasco	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
9	Trevor Bauer	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+1
10	Walker Buehler T3	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-5
11	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
12	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
13	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
14	Jack Flaherty	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
15	Kenta Maeda	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+4
16	Zac Gallen	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+6
17	Tyler Glasnow T4	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+3
18	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
19	Brandon Woodruff	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
20	Dinelson Lamet	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+5
21	Aaron Civale	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+5
22	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+5
23	Blake Snell	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+7
24	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+4
25	Zack Greinke	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	+6
26	Chris Paddack T5	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-5
27	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+5
28	Max Fried	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+5
29	Dylan Bundy	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+5
30	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-12
31	Patrick Corbin	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-18
32	Zack Wheeler	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
33	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+9
34	Kyle Hendricks	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+2
35	Dustin May T6	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+2
36	Ross Stripling	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+2
37	Hyun Jin Ryu	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+7
38	Spencer Turnbull	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-3
39	José Berríos T7	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
40	Dallas Keuchel	Toby Ratio Focused	+5
41	Masahiro Tanaka	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+6
42	Chris Bassitt	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	+6
43	Jake Odorizzi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+6
44	Jordan Montgomery	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+8
45	Nate Pearson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-2
46	Garrett Richards	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+7
47	Randy Dobnak	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+10
48	Adrian Houser	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+3
49	Pablo López	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+16
50	Andrew Heaney	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+9
51	Kevin Gausman	Ace Potential Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+36
52	Josh Lindblom	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	+9
53	Ryan Yarbrough	Toby Ratio Focused	-14
54	James Paxton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-4
55	Griffin Canning	Ace Potential Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	-14
56	Casey Mize T8	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+28
57	Yusei Kikuchi	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	+12
58	Chad Kuhl	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+22
59	Touki Toussaint	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+8
60	Mike Minor	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-2
61	Corbin Burnes T9	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+9
62	MacKenzie Gore	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+21
63	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+UR
64	Robbie Ray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-9
65	John Means	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-19
66	Tony Gonsolin T10	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
67	Anthony DeSclafani	Strikeout Upside Toby	-11
68	Sean Manaea	Injury Risk Ratio Focused	-6
69	Kyle Freeland	Cherry Bomb Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+2
70	Elieser Hernández	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
71	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+8
72	Matt Shoemaker	Injury Risk Toby Streaming Option	+24
73	Cristian Javier	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+5
74	Merrill Kelly	Toby Streaming Option	+20
75	Luke Weaver	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-21
76	Ryan Castellani	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
77	Kyle Gibson	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-17
78	Jon Gray T11	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-12
79	Dakota Hudson	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
80	Brandon Bielak	Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+5
81	David Peterson	Playing Time Question Toby Streaming Option	-8
82	Brady Singer	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-19
83	Nathan Eovaldi	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	-2
84	Spencer Howard	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	-20
85	Matthew Boyd	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-9
86	Yonny Chirinos	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
87	Zach Eflin T12	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
88	Steven Matz	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-16
89	Alec Mills	Toby Streaming Option	-3
90	Alex Cobb	Toby Streaming Option	-2
91	Patrick Sandoval	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-1
92	Framber Valdez	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-10
93	Asher Wojciechowski	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-4
94	Brad Keller	Toby Streaming Option	-1
95	Alex Young	Playing Time Question Toby Streaming Option	+UR
96	Taijuan Walker T13	Toby Streaming Option	+2
97	Zach Davies	Toby Streaming Option	+2
98	Kris Bubic	Toby Streaming Option	-21
99	Justus Sheffield	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-8
100	Marco Gonzales	Toby Streaming Option	-5

Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)