Welcome to the fifth edition of The Stash List for pitchers!
Ground Rules
- The Stash List is for your redraft leagues and does not consider impact beyond 2023
- Only current minor league players who are expected to make an impact this season are included
- Players who have already made their MLB debuts can not have thrown more than 50 IP in MLB
- Upside, proximity, health, and opportunity are all weighed for each player
- The focus is on 12-team leagues with standard categories
- Rankings and ownership percentages will be updated weekly
Graduates
This section of the column highlights the pitchers that were on the previous week’s list but have since made their MLB debuts and are no longer considered stashes because they’re still on their team’s active roster.
Tanner Bibee, CLE (Prev. 2)
Tanner Bibee debuted against the Rockies on Wednesday and looked terrific. He was able to throw his slider for strikes and was confident throwing it while behind in the count. His execution got spotty at times when there were a fair amount of waste pitches, but he avoided the middle of the zone and managed not to walk a batter while striking out 8. He’s my preference if I have to decide between bidding on him or Allen, and I’d be comfortable biding up to about 18% of my FAAB budget on him in 15-teamers and about 10% in 12-teamers.
Logan Allen, CLE (5)
Logan Allen got the call up to the Big Leagues a few days before Bibee did and his stat line was just as impressive. He debuted on Sunday against the Marlins and generated 17 whiffs on 86 pitches while commanding his fastball well and featuring a rare lefty splitter. He doesn’t have the high-upside stuff that Bibee features, but he’s a lefty starter in a rotation that needs one and he pitched exceptionally well to start this season in AAA. His rotation spot looks solid, and I would be comfortable with about 12% of a FAAB budget in 15-teamers and about 8% in 12-teamers.
Top 10 Pitcher Prospects to Stash
1. Brandon Pfaadt, ARI – ETA in the next week (1)
Brandon Pfaadt has been lights-out since his first start of the season, which was a clunker. The PCL Slayer has been back at full force and there’s now an open rotation spot in Phoenix after Drey Jameson’s demotion to AAA. The D-Backs have off days on Monday and Thursday, so they won’t necessarily need someone to take that spot right away. If they want to give some guys an extra day off, he could pitch Tuesday in Texas. If he pitches again in AAA, his schedule would line up for May 6th or 7th against the Nationals for the earliest possible debut.
2. Matthew Liberatore, STL – ETA May (3)
It seems like we’ve been waiting for Liberatore to take Woodford’s spot in the rotation for a while now, and it looks like the impending return of Adam Wainwright could put a wrench in our hopes and dreams. Wainwright has already pitched two rehab games in the Cardinals system, and it’s unclear if he will require one more before re-joining the team. Liberatore will likely need an injury or a spot start to make the MLB team at this point.
3. Luis Ortiz, PIT – ETA May (4)
Luis Ortiz has continually improved his walk rate while going deeper into games as the season has progressed. He’s lacking in strikeouts right now and his .197 BABIP is likely suppressing his ERA a little bit, but we know his high-velo fastball and slider can be lethal. Rich Hill and Vince Velazquez are clinging onto rotation spots as it stands, but Ortiz looks ready for another crack at the Bigs whenever they need him.
4. Gavin Williams, CLE – ETA June (6)
Gavin Williams has simply refused to allow runs this season and carries a strikeout rate north of 30%. The bad news is that the Guardians’ rotation is crowded and it will only get busier as it gets healthier going forward. If Bibee or Allen falters and Williams continues to dominate, he could get a shot, but I wouldn’t count on that scenario playing out. If the opportunity opens up, he should be a priority add in all formats.
5. Gavin Stone, LAD – ETA May (9)
You’re welcome, everyone. All it took was for me to drop Gavin Stone to the bottom of this list last week and he proceeded to pitch 9.2 innings of one-run ball this week. This bump in the rankings isn’t solely caused by those performances, as we had two pitchers graduate as well. It’s worth noting that Stone still walked 10.5% of the batters he’s faced this week.
6. Louie Varland, MIN – ETA May (NR)
Louie Varland makes his first appearance on this list due to a combination of skills and a potential newfound opportunity. He’s been well-known as a great command pitcher with average stuff, but he’s boosted his Stuff+ and strikeout numbers this season while maintaining his exceptional command.
Furthermore, the Twins rotation lost Kenta Maeda to the Injured List this week, and Tyler Mahle also left a start with an elbow impingement. It’s unclear if Mahle will need an IL stint, but if he does need to miss a start or two, my money will be on Varland to take the fifth spot. Bailey Ober will be starting in place of Maeda.
7. DL Hall, BAL – ETA June (7)
DL Hall hasn’t made a start since last week’s Stash List and he isn’t on the team’s probables for this weekend either. I can’t seem to find the season via Google search, so he stays put for this week until we know more. Feel free to comment on this post if you’ve seen something that I haven’t.
8. Andrew Abbott, CIN – ETA July (10)
Andrew Abbott got the call up to AAA a bit sooner than I even thought he would. He absolutely dominated AA to the tune of a 58.9 K-BB%. His first start in AAA was very good and he was able to continue his strikeout prowess, but he did allow three free passes. If he can continue pitching with a strikeout rate north of 30% in AAA, it will be hard to justify keeping him down with two wide-open spots in the Cincinnati rotation.
9. Forrest Whitley, HOU – ETA June (8)
Forrest Whitley followed up his first two exceptional starts with two mediocre ones to create a mixed bag of results this season. He starts tonight against Drey Jameson in Reno, where the ball tends to travel quite far. He does of course pitch in the PCL and the ERA should be taken with a grain of salt, so look for him to rebound with more missed bats and strikeouts. The Astros rotation is set in cement right now, so his opportunity is dependent on a change of circumstances for the ‘Stros.
10. Elvin Rodriguez, TBR – ETA July (NR)
Elvin Rodriguez has been a top-10 pitcher in both K-BB% and Stuff+ in AAA this season. The Durham Bull did pitch 29.2 MLB innings for the Tigers last season where he carried a 10.62 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP with 25 strikeouts. So why are we interested? Well, the Rays got a hold of him. In those innings with the Tigers last year, he had a 97 Stuff+ in Eno Sarris’ model. In AAA this season he’s putting up a 108 Stuff+.
Of course he is. It’s the Rays.
The Watchlist
This section of The Stash List is aimed towards those of you who play in deep leagues (15+ teams or 375+ players rostered) where some of the guys on the list above might already be taken because of their higher pedigree. These players’ debuts will likely be a bit further out than the players listed above, but the purpose is to be ready to pounce on them as soon as it becomes clear that an opportunity might open up.
I expect it will primarily consist of top-200 prospects who are advancing faster than expected or players who are outperforming expectations and came seemingly out of nowhere (see: Cody Bradford).
The players are listed in alphabetical order, and I don’t have the time to do write-ups for these guys, so I’d highly suggest checking out their Fangraphs pages and/or watching one of their starts. Also, shout out to @SpokaneWaUpdate on Twitter for inspiring this section of the article!
Bobby Miller is making his season debut today for AAA Oklahoma City. It wasn’t out of the question that he could break the roster out of camp before his injury derailed him this spring, so he could make quick work of AAA. He had a 3.38 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts in 21.1 AAA IP last season.
Patrick Monteverde threw 7 shutout innings on Friday night, and each of the stats in his line above reflects that start except for his xFIP. I don’t want to calculate the xFIP by hand. That’s way too much math.
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Hall was the Orioles’ 27th man for today’s doubleheader and finished out game one with seven strikeouts in three relief innings (along with five hits, two ER, a walk and a HRA).
Is Eury Perez really that far away that he doesn’t make the watch list? AAA is pretty much a holding cell to the majors these days and the Marlins have never been shy about promoting pitchers aggressively.